Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland
description
Transcript of Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland
![Page 1: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Consumers and the Value of WindEvidence from Ireland
Impact of Wind Generation on Wholesale Electricity Costs in 2011
Matthew Clancy
Lead Policy Analyst
EWEA , Vienna, 7th February 2013
![Page 2: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Debate in Ireland in 2011
• Two opposing views:– “.. relatively expensive form of electricity generation ..”
Irish Academy of Engineers, 2010
– “…[Wind energy] is already having a significant impact on energy costs, with the total savings to consumers set to reach €36.6m in 2011.” IWEA 2011
• Need for independent evidence to add to the debate– SEAI and the Irish TSO EirGrid, joint study
![Page 3: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Ireland as a case study
• Ireland’s electricity market structure supports this analysis
• Mandatory Gross Pool market – transparent market price, volumes
and systems operations
• Publically available data on generators– Allows detailed modelling of market
• Large deployment of wind energy– 17% of electricity consumption in
2011
![Page 4: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What contributes to the Price of Electricity?
Electricity Price Components0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Wholesale Carbon Price Transmission Renewables Vat
Con
sum
er P
rice
Wholesale costs
The ETS carbon price
Transmission costs
Renewable support schemes
Tax on the delivered electricity
![Page 5: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
How to isolate the impact of wind?
Wind generation increase
Wholesale Price decrease Constraint costs increase
Supports for renewable increase
Short Term
![Page 6: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
How to isolate the impact of wind?
– More wind, more wholesale price reductions
– Extra investment in transmission will be required
– More capital investment in thermal generation • Low running duty • Lower market prices
Longer Term
![Page 7: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Focus on 2011
• Two scenarios examined
– 1) 2011 thermal generation & 2011 total expected wind capacity
– 2) 2011 thermal generation only & no wind generation
![Page 8: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Modelling Insights
No wind Expected 2011 Wind capacity€0
€200
€400
€600
€800
€1,000
€1,200
€1,400
€1,600
€1,800
€2,000€1.91 Billion €1.91 Billion
Wholesale Cost Constraints PSO
Tota
l ele
ctri
city
cos
t (m
illio
n €)
Wholesale costs €74 million less in wind scenario
Constraint costs €24 million higher in wind scenario
Renewable support €50 million higher in wind scenario
![Page 9: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Results
• Wind generation reduces the wholesale market cost by €74 million in the model
• The cost of constraints and renewable support offset this reduction
• The modelling showed wind did not increase the cost in the scenarios examined
![Page 10: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Modelling 2020 impacts
• Ireland aims to have 40% of electricity demand coming from renewable sources by 2020– New transmission infrastructure and operational regimes
required.– Investment in thermal generation required to maintain system
security.
• Preliminary results show that consumer bills could rise marginally
• Cost to consumer in 2020 is highly dependent on fossil fuel prices
![Page 11: Consumers and the Value of Wind Evidence from Ireland](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062723/56813fd7550346895daabd08/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is partly financed by Ireland’s EU Structural Funds Programme co-funded by the Irish Government and the European Union.
Thanks for your attention [email protected]
http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Energy_Modelling_Group_/Energy_Modelling_Group_Publications/Impact_of_Wind_Generation_on_Wholesale_Electricity_Costs_in_2011.pdf