Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe.
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Transcript of Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe.
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Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe
-
R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 62 (4), 64 (2006).History of Nuclear Warheads
Chart1
606925012000
11011835011750
3203288769818
110011088768400
235123679828250
369537476507800
6402566573827200
100550105553005830
1436120155757352200
206315022182200
30572003267
46184265059
64446607124
982286910713
15468106016553
20434160522069
24126247126647
27387332230914
29459423833977
31056522136592
31982612938458
32040708939455
31233833939903
29224939938974
273421053838274
266621164338696
269561309240413
279121447842810
289991591545455
289651738546990
278261905547604
255792120547536
257222304449544
248262539351024
246052793553360
243043006255246
234643204956467
237083395258629
240993580460882
243573743162753
242373919764519
244014500070481
243444300068479
235864100065726
223803900062525
210043700059239
172873500053562
147473300049022
130763100045336
125552900042715
121442700040344
110092500037159
109502400036060
108712300034981
108242200033859
105772100032632
105272000031477
104751900030425
104211800029371
103581800029308
102951700028245
101041600026854
U.S.
Russia
World total
U.S. Deployed
Russia Deployed
Year
Number of Weapons
Sheet4
194566First use
19461111
19473232
1948110110
19492351236
19503695374
195164025665
19521,005501,055
19531,43612011,557
19542,06315052,218
19553,057200103,267
19564,618426155,059
19576,444660207,124
19589,8228692210,713
195915,4681,0602516,553
196020,4341,6053022,069
196124,1112,4715026,632
196227,2973,32220530,824
196329,2494,23828033,767
196430,7515,2213104136,287
196531,6426,12931032538,118
196631,7007,089270362039,115
196730,8938,339270362539,563
196828,8849,399280363538,634
196926,91010,538308365037,842
197026,11911,643280367538,153
197126,36513,0922204510039,822
197227,29614,4782207013042,194
197328,33515,91527511615044,791
197428,17017,38532514517046,195
197527,05219,05535018818546,830
197625,95621,20535021219047,913
197725,09923,04435022820048,920
197824,24325,39335023522050,441
197924,10727,93535023523552,862
198023,76430,06235025028054,706
198123,03132,04935027433056,034
198222,93733,95233527436057,858
198323,15435,80432027938059,937
198423,22837,43127028041561,624
198523,13539,19730036042563,417
198623,25440,72330035542565,057
198723,49038,85930042041563,484
198823,07737,33330041043061,550
198922,17435,80530041043559,124
199021,21133,41730050543055,863
199118,30628,59530054043548,176
199213,73125,15530054043540,161
199311,53622,10130052543534,897
199411,01218,39925051040030,571
199510,95314,97830050040027,131
199610,88612,08530045040024,121
199710,82911,26426045040023,203
199810,76310,76426045040022,637
199910,69810,45118545040022,184
200010,61510,20118547040021,871
200110,4919,12620035040020,567
200210,6008,60020035040020,150
Sheet4
619456
11194611
32194732
1101948110
2351236
3695374
64025665
1005501055
14361201557
20631502218
30572003267
46184265059
64446607124
982286910713
15468106016553
20434160522069
24111247126632
27297332230824
29249423833767
30751522136287
31642612938118
31700708939115
30893833939563
28884939938634
269101053837842
261191164338153
263651309239822
272961447842194
283351591544791
281701738546195
270521905546830
259562120547913
250992304448920
242432539350441
241072793552862
237643006254706
230313204956034
229373395257858
231543580459937
232283743161624
231353919763417
232544072365057
234903885963484
230773733361550
221743580559124
212113341755863
183062859548176
137312515540161
115362210134897
110121839930571
109531497827131
108861208524121
108291126423203
107631076422637
106981045122184
106151020121871
10491912620567
10600860020150
U.S.
Russia
Total
Year
Number of Weapons
Sheet1
194519451945
194619461946
194719471947
194819481948
194919491949
195019501950
195119511951
195219521952
119531953
519541954
1019551955
1519561956
2019571957
2219581958
2519591959
3019601960
5019611961
20519621962
28019631963
31041
310325
2703620
2703625
2803635
3083650
2803675
22045100
22070130
275116150
325145170
350188185
350212190
350228200
350235220
350235235
350250280
350274330
335274360
320279380
270280415
300360425
300355425
300420415
300410430
300410435
300505430
300540435
300540435
300525435
250510400
300500400
300450400
260450400
260450400
185450400
185470400
200350400
200350400
U.K.
France
China
U.K.
France
China
Year
Number of Weapons
Sheet5
6
11
32
110
236
374
665
1055
1557
2218
3267
5059
7124
10713
16553
22069
26632
30824
33767
36287
38118
39115
39563
38634
37842
38153
39822
42194
44791
46195
46830
47913
48920
50441
52862
54706
56034
57858
59937
61624
63417
65057
63484
61550
59124
55863
48176
40161
34897
30571
27131
24121
23203
22637
22184
21871
20567
20150
Limited Test Ban Treaty
Outer Space Treaty
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
SALT-I ABM Treaty
SALT-II
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty
U.S. fission weapons deleloped and used
U.S. withdraws ABM treatyRussia withdraws from START II
U.S. quits SALT II
USSR explodes first weapon
U.K. explodes fisison weapon U.S. explodes H-Bomb
French nuclear weapon
Chinese fission weapon
Chinese H-bomb, Israeli nuclear weapon
Indian fission weapon
India and Pakistan weapon tests
South African nuclear weapon
Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons
Total weapons
Year
Total Number of Weapons
Sheet2
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
U.S. fission weapons developed and used
Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons
U.S. withdraws ABM treaty, Russia withdraws from STARTII
India and Pakistan test weapons
South African Nuclear Weapon
Indian Nuclear Test
Chinese H-Bomb, Israeli Nuclear Weapon
Chinese Nuclear Test
French Nuclear Weapon
U.K. Nuclear Test, U.S. H-Bomb
U.S. quits SALT-II
USSR Nuclear Test
Limited Test Ban Treaty
Outer Space Treaty
Nuclear NPT
SALT, ABM Treaty
SALT II
Intermediate Range Nuclear Treaty
START
START II
Comprehensive Test Ban
Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty
Nuclear weapons
Sheet3
1945 6 6661945
1946 11 1111116
1947 32 326
1948 110 11011111946
1949 235 1 23611011011
1950 369 5 37411
1951 640 25 6651947
1952 1,005 50 1,05532
1953 1,436 120 1 1,55732
1954 2,063 150 5 2,2181948
1955 3,057 200 10 3,267110
1956 4,618 426 15 5,059110
1957 6,444 660 20 7,1241949
1958 9,822 869 22 10,713235
1
236
1950
369
5
374
1951
640
25
665
1952
1,005
50
1,055
1953
1,436
120
1
1,557
1954
2,063
150
5
2,218
1955
3,057
200
10
3,267
1956
4,618
426
15
5,059
1957
6,444
660
20
7,124
1958
9,822
869
22
10,713
1959
15,468
1,060
25
16,553
1960
20,434
1,605
30
22,069
1961
24,126
2,471
50
26,647
1962
27,387
3,322
205
30,914
1963
29,459
4,238
280
33,977
1964
31,056
5,221
310
4
1
36,592
1965
31,982
6,129
310
32
5
38,458
1966
32,040
7,089
270
36
20
39,455
1967
31,233
8,339
270
36
25
39,903
1968
29,224
9,399
280
36
35
38,974
1969
27,342
10,538
308
36
50
38,274
1970
26,662
11,643
280
36
75
38,696
1971
26,956
13,092
220
45
100
40,413
1972
27,912
14,478
220
70
130
42,810
1973
28,999
15,915
275
116
150
45,455
1974
28,965
17,385
325
145
170
46,990
1975
27,826
19,055
350
188
185
47,604
1976
25,579
21,205
350
212
190
47,536
1977
25,722
23,044
350
228
200
49,544
1978
24,826
25,393
350
235
220
51,024
1979
24,605
27,935
350
235
235
53,360
1980
24,304
30,062
350
250
280
55,246
1981
23,464
32,049
350
274
330
56,467
1982
23,708
33,952
335
274
360
58,629
1983
24,099
35,804
320
279
380
60,882
1984
24,357
37,431
270
280
415
62,753
1985
24,237
39,197
300
360
425
64,519
1986
24,401
45,000
300
355
425
70,481
1987
24,344
43,000
300
420
415
68,479
1988
23,586
41,000
300
410
430
65,726
1989
22,380
39,000
300
410
435
62,525
1990
21,004
37,000
300
505
430
59,239
1991
17,287
35,000
300
540
435
53,562
1992
14,747
33,000
300
540
435
49,022
1993
13,076
31,000
300
525
435
45,336
1994
12,555
29,000
250
510
400
42,715
1995
12,144
27,000
300
500
400
40,344
1996
11,009
25,000
300
450
400
37,159
1997
10,950
24,000
260
450
400
36,060
1998
10,871
23,000
260
450
400
34,981
1999
10,824
22,000
185
450
400
33,859
2000
10,577
21,000
185
470
400
32,632
2001
10,527
20,000
200
350
400
31,477
2002
10,475
19,000
200
350
400
30,425
2003
10,421
18,000
200
350
400
29,371
2004
10,358
18,000
200
350
400
29,308
2005
10,295
17,000
200
350
400
28,245
2006
10,104
16,000
200
350
200
26,854
1945600006
194611000011
194732000032
19481100000110
19492351000236
19503695000374
195164025000665
19521,005500001,055
19531,4361201001,557
19542,0631500052,218
19553,05720010003,267
19564,61842615005,059
19576,44466020007,124
19589,822869220010,713
195915,4681,060250016,553
196020,4341,605300022,069
196124,1262,471500026,647
196227,3873,3222050030,914
196329,4594,2382800033,977
196431,0565,2213104136,592
196531,9826,12931032538,458
196632,0407,089270362039,455
196731,2338,339270362539,903
196829,2249,399280363538,974
196927,34210,538308365038,274
197026,66211,643280367538,696
197126,95613,0922204510040,413
197227,91214,4782207013042,810
197328,99915,91527511615045,455
197428,96517,38532514517046,990
197527,82619,05535018818547,604
197625,57921,20535021219047,536
197725,72223,04435022820049,544
197824,82625,39335023522051,024
197924,60527,93535023523553,360
198024,30430,06235025028055,246
198123,46432,04935027433056,467
198223,70833,95233527436058,629
198324,09935,80432027938060,882
198424,35737,43127028041562,753
198524,23739,19730036042564,519
198624,40145,00030035542570,481
198724,34443,00030042041568,479
198823,58641,00030041043065,726
198922,38039,00030041043562,525
199021,00437,00030050543059,239
199117,28735,00030054043553,562
199214,74733,00030054043549,022
199313,07631,00030052543545,336
199412,55529,00025051040042,715
199512,14412,00027,00030050040040,34419969250199512,000
1996925011,00911,75025,00030045040037,15919988350199611,750
199710,95024,00026045040036,0602000887620019,818
1998835010,87123,00026045040034,9812001887620028,400
199910,82422,00018545040033,8592002798220038,250
2000887610,57721,00018547040032,6322003765020047,800
2001887610,5279,81820,00020035040031,4772004738220057,200
2002798210,4758,40019,00020035040030,4252005530020065,830
2003765010,4218,25018,00020035040029,3712006573520122200
2004738210,3587,80018,00020035040029,30820122200
2005530010,2957,20017,00020035040028,245
2006573510,1045,83016,00020035020026,854
201222002200
yearus deployedusrussia deployedrussiabritainfrancechinatotal
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
0000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
U,S,
russia
total
U.S. deployed
Russia Deployed
Year
Number
War heads worldwide
-
New nuclear states continue to appear
Chart3
00
11
22
33
44
55
66
77
88
79
1010
711
812
913
14
U.S.
U.S.S.R
U.K.
France
China
Israel?
India
South Africa?
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine
Pakistan
North Korea
One new state per 5 years
Number of Nuclear Weapons States
1 per 5 years
Year
Number of Nuclear States
Chart1
606925012000
11011835011750
3203288769818
110011088768400
235123679828250
369537476507800
6402566573827200
100550105553005830
1436120155757352200
206315022182200
30572003267
46184265059
64446607124
982286910713
15468106016553
20434160522069
24126247126647
27387332230914
29459423833977
31056522136592
31982612938458
32040708939455
31233833939903
29224939938974
273421053838274
266621164338696
269561309240413
279121447842810
289991591545455
289651738546990
278261905547604
255792120547536
257222304449544
248262539351024
246052793553360
243043006255246
234643204956467
237083395258629
240993580460882
243573743162753
242373919764519
244014500070481
243444300068479
235864100065726
223803900062525
210043700059239
172873500053562
147473300049022
130763100045336
125552900042715
121442700040344
110092500037159
109502400036060
108712300034981
108242200033859
105772100032632
105272000031477
104751900030425
104211800029371
103581800029308
102951700028245
101041600026854
U.S.
Russia
World total
U.S. Deployed
Russia Deployed
Year
Number of Weapons
Sheet4
194566First use
19461111
19473232
1948110110
19492351236
19503695374
195164025665
19521,005501,055
19531,43612011,557
19542,06315052,218
19553,057200103,267
19564,618426155,059
19576,444660207,124
19589,8228692210,713
195915,4681,0602516,553
196020,4341,6053022,069
196124,1112,4715026,632
196227,2973,32220530,824
196329,2494,23828033,767
196430,7515,2213104136,287
196531,6426,12931032538,118
196631,7007,089270362039,115
196730,8938,339270362539,563
196828,8849,399280363538,634
196926,91010,538308365037,842
197026,11911,643280367538,153
197126,36513,0922204510039,822
197227,29614,4782207013042,194
197328,33515,91527511615044,791
197428,17017,38532514517046,195
197527,05219,05535018818546,830
197625,95621,20535021219047,913
197725,09923,04435022820048,920
197824,24325,39335023522050,441
197924,10727,93535023523552,862
198023,76430,06235025028054,706
198123,03132,04935027433056,034
198222,93733,95233527436057,858
198323,15435,80432027938059,937
198423,22837,43127028041561,624
198523,13539,19730036042563,417
198623,25440,72330035542565,057
198723,49038,85930042041563,484
198823,07737,33330041043061,550
198922,17435,80530041043559,124
199021,21133,41730050543055,863
199118,30628,59530054043548,176
199213,73125,15530054043540,161
199311,53622,10130052543534,897
199411,01218,39925051040030,571
199510,95314,97830050040027,131
199610,88612,08530045040024,121
199710,82911,26426045040023,203
199810,76310,76426045040022,637
199910,69810,45118545040022,184
200010,61510,20118547040021,871
200110,4919,12620035040020,567
200210,6008,60020035040020,150
Sheet4
U.S.
Russia
Total
Year
Number of Weapons
Sheet1
U.K.
France
China
U.K.
France
China
Year
Number of Weapons
Sheet6
Limited Test Ban Treaty
Outer Space Treaty
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
SALT-I ABM Treaty
SALT-II
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty
U.S. fission weapons deleloped and used
U.S. withdraws ABM treatyRussia withdraws from START II
U.S. quits SALT II
USSR explodes first weapon
U.K. explodes fisison weapon U.S. explodes H-Bomb
French nuclear weapon
Chinese fission weapon
Chinese H-bomb, Israeli nuclear weapon
Indian fission weapon
India and Pakistan weapon tests
South African nuclear weapon
Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons
Total weapons
Year
Total Number of Weapons
Sheet5
U.S. fission weapons developed and used
Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons
U.S. withdraws ABM treaty, Russia withdraws from STARTII
India and Pakistan test weapons
South African Nuclear Weapon
Indian Nuclear Test
Chinese H-Bomb, Israeli Nuclear Weapon
Chinese Nuclear Test
French Nuclear Weapon
U.K. Nuclear Test, U.S. H-Bomb
U.S. quits SALT-II
USSR Nuclear Test
Limited Test Ban Treaty
Outer Space Treaty
Nuclear NPT
SALT, ABM Treaty
SALT II
Intermediate Range Nuclear Treaty
START
START II
Comprehensive Test Ban
Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty
Nuclear weapons
Sheet2
1945 6 6661945
1946 11 1111116
1947 32 326
1948 110 11011111946
1949 235 1 23611011011
1950 369 5 37411
1951 640 25 6651947
1952 1,005 50 1,05532
1953 1,436 120 1 1,55732
1954 2,063 150 5 2,2181948
1955 3,057 200 10 3,267110
1956 4,618 426 15 5,059110
1957 6,444 660 20 7,1241949
1958 9,822 869 22 10,713235
1
236
1950
369
5
374
1951
640
25
665
1952
1,005
50
1,055
1953
1,436
120
1
1,557
1954
2,063
150
5
2,218
1955
3,057
200
10
3,267
1956
4,618
426
15
5,059
1957
6,444
660
20
7,124
1958
9,822
869
22
10,713
1959
15,468
1,060
25
16,553
1960
20,434
1,605
30
22,069
1961
24,126
2,471
50
26,647
1962
27,387
3,322
205
30,914
1963
29,459
4,238
280
33,977
1964
31,056
5,221
310
4
1
36,592
1965
31,982
6,129
310
32
5
38,458
1966
32,040
7,089
270
36
20
39,455
1967
31,233
8,339
270
36
25
39,903
1968
29,224
9,399
280
36
35
38,974
1969
27,342
10,538
308
36
50
38,274
1970
26,662
11,643
280
36
75
38,696
1971
26,956
13,092
220
45
100
40,413
1972
27,912
14,478
220
70
130
42,810
1973
28,999
15,915
275
116
150
45,455
1974
28,965
17,385
325
145
170
46,990
1975
27,826
19,055
350
188
185
47,604
1976
25,579
21,205
350
212
190
47,536
1977
25,722
23,044
350
228
200
49,544
1978
24,826
25,393
350
235
220
51,024
1979
24,605
27,935
350
235
235
53,360
1980
24,304
30,062
350
250
280
55,246
1981
23,464
32,049
350
274
330
56,467
1982
23,708
33,952
335
274
360
58,629
1983
24,099
35,804
320
279
380
60,882
1984
24,357
37,431
270
280
415
62,753
1985
24,237
39,197
300
360
425
64,519
1986
24,401
45,000
300
355
425
70,481
1987
24,344
43,000
300
420
415
68,479
1988
23,586
41,000
300
410
430
65,726
1989
22,380
39,000
300
410
435
62,525
1990
21,004
37,000
300
505
430
59,239
1991
17,287
35,000
300
540
435
53,562
1992
14,747
33,000
300
540
435
49,022
1993
13,076
31,000
300
525
435
45,336
1994
12,555
29,000
250
510
400
42,715
1995
12,144
27,000
300
500
400
40,344
1996
11,009
25,000
300
450
400
37,159
1997
10,950
24,000
260
450
400
36,060
1998
10,871
23,000
260
450
400
34,981
1999
10,824
22,000
185
450
400
33,859
2000
10,577
21,000
185
470
400
32,632
2001
10,527
20,000
200
350
400
31,477
2002
10,475
19,000
200
350
400
30,425
2003
10,421
18,000
200
350
400
29,371
2004
10,358
18,000
200
350
400
29,308
2005
10,295
17,000
200
350
400
28,245
2006
10,104
16,000
200
350
200
26,854
Sheet3
1940019400
19451U.S.19451
19492Russia19502
19523United Kingdom19553
19604France19604
19645China19655
19676Israel ?19706
19747India19757
19798South Africa ?19808
19907South Africa19859
199110Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhatan199010
19967199511
19988Pakistan200012
20069North Korea200513
201014
Sheet3
U.S.
U.S.S.R
U.K.
France
China
Israel?
India
South Africa?
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine
Pakistan
North Korea
One new state per 5 years
Number of Nuclear Weapons States
1 per 5 years
Year
Number of Nuclear States
1945600006
194611000011
194732000032
19481100000110
19492351000236
19503695000374
195164025000665
19521,005500001,055
19531,4361201001,557
19542,0631500052,218
19553,05720010003,267
19564,61842615005,059
19576,44466020007,124
19589,822869220010,713
195915,4681,060250016,553
196020,4341,605300022,069
196124,1262,471500026,647
196227,3873,3222050030,914
196329,4594,2382800033,977
196431,0565,2213104136,592
196531,9826,12931032538,458
196632,0407,089270362039,455
196731,2338,339270362539,903
196829,2249,399280363538,974
196927,34210,538308365038,274
197026,66211,643280367538,696
197126,95613,0922204510040,413
197227,91214,4782207013042,810
197328,99915,91527511615045,455
197428,96517,38532514517046,990
197527,82619,05535018818547,604
197625,57921,20535021219047,536
197725,72223,04435022820049,544
197824,82625,39335023522051,024
197924,60527,93535023523553,360
198024,30430,06235025028055,246
198123,46432,04935027433056,467
198223,70833,95233527436058,629
198324,09935,80432027938060,882
198424,35737,43127028041562,753
198524,23739,19730036042564,519
198624,40145,00030035542570,481
198724,34443,00030042041568,479
198823,58641,00030041043065,726
198922,38039,00030041043562,525
199021,00437,00030050543059,239
199117,28735,00030054043553,562
199214,74733,00030054043549,022
199313,07631,00030052543545,336
199412,55529,00025051040042,715
199512,14412,00027,00030050040040,34419969250199512,000
1996925011,00911,75025,00030045040037,15919988350199611,750
199710,95024,00026045040036,0602000887620019,818
1998835010,87123,00026045040034,9812001887620028,400
199910,82422,00018545040033,8592002798220038,250
2000887610,57721,00018547040032,6322003765020047,800
2001887610,5279,81820,00020035040031,4772004738220057,200
2002798210,4758,40019,00020035040030,4252005530020065,830
2003765010,4218,25018,00020035040029,3712006573520122200
2004738210,3587,80018,00020035040029,30820122200
2005530010,2957,20017,00020035040028,245
2006573510,1045,83016,00020035020026,854
201222002200
yearus deployedusrussia deployedrussiabritainfrancechinatotal
U,S,
russia
total
U.S. deployed
Russia Deployed
Year
Number
War heads worldwide
-
Nuclear Weapons StatesD. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.orgR.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 61 (3), 64 (2005).NWSDeFactoIsrael, 116 (102-130)Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979?North Korea, 10?, 2007India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998
-
Fatalities relative to previous conflicts
Chart6
318.5714285714
385000
0.2289156627
72
0.4543918919
190.3333333333
0.6377777778
80.3571428571
0.1045475856
62.875
0.0168926554
0.2781456954
0.5086419753
Fraction of previous wars from one weapon
Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars
Sheet1
Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.5714285714
Brazil385,000266,00011.00385000
China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.2289156627
Egypt612,000601,00085001.0072
France269,000198,000592,0003.000.4543918919
India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.3333333333
Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.6377777778
Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.3571428571
Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.1045475856
Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.875
Russia299,000237,00017,700,000>500.0168926554
U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.2781456954
U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.5086419753
airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous
fatalities in prevous wars
Sheet1
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Previous conflicts
Airburst Fatalities
Densest location
2nd Densest location
Fatalities, Highest Density Location
Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location
Falities from Previous Conflicts
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fraction of previous wars from one weapon
Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars
Sheet3
Sheet1
Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.5714285714
Brazil385,000266,00011.00385000
China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.2289156627
Egypt612,000601,00085001.0072
France269,000198,000592,0003.000.4543918919
India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.3333333333
Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.6377777778
Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.3571428571
Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.1045475856
Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.875
Russia299,000237,00017,700,00050.000.0168926554
U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.2781456954
U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.5086419753
airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous
fatalities in prevous wars
Sheet1
Previous conflicts
Airburst Fatalities
Densest location
2nd Densest location
Fatalities, Highest Density Location
Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location
Falities from Previous Conflicts
Sheet2
Fraction of previous wars from one weapon
Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars
Sheet3
Number of Explosions
Number of Explosions to Equal Fatalities in Previous Wars
-
Fatality Estimates for Nuclear WarsThe deaths per kt are 100 times greater for small yield weapons than for large ones.
SourceTotal Yield# of WeaponsFatalitiesAmbio (1982)(world)5569 Mt14,747950,000,000Harwell (1984)1400 Mt>300050-100,000,000 (blast)OTA (1979)U.S.1000s Mt1000s20-160,000,000OTA (1979)Counterforce2-20,000,000(fallout)Daugherty (1986)Counterforce1340 Mt30007-19,000,000(blast)Regional U.S.0.75 Mt504,000,000Regional India/Pakistan1.5 Mt10026,000,000
-
Fuel loading per personWe assume fuel loading is proportional to population
Chart1
1.11.315.603875134632.3088472.071.4356
2.21.611.7056
4.41.42.6056
6.61.944.4056
8.81.526.2056
112.138.0056
229.8056
4418.8056
6636.8056
8854.8056
72.8056
Population based fuel loading
San Jose (Simonett)
Hamburg OTA
Hamburg Ebert
Hamburg Scope
Bush
Bush linear fit
Population density ( km-2)
Fuel loading (g/cm2)
Sheet1
City1998 pop1998 popdensity #/km2pop at densityarea km2PakistanIndiaIsrealchinafrancebritainU.S. bombsus submarinesus icbmscruise misslesnon strategicrussiaus total 10455
Karachi central933902333014227793169weapons-124-4860-90100-200270-470348200114536002085180016108400
Karachi east197562746014139av. Yield4-12ktons?200-5000kt100-300kt100kton10-1000ktons100-475 ktons170-3355-150ktons.3-170
Karachi south143041745038122
Lahore5,143,495356663187451772potential weapons30-55
Faisalabad200886192754295475856time in hours48 hour radiation dose for 1 km2area for 450 rad 48 hour dose km2
Rawalpindi1409768528633639116361304195.5675.99
Multan119738483831168513720381396.7902501447180.8817561114
Hyderabad116689452428914885519635430.0108013878.7333573364
Gujranwala1,132,509939340094036221215421.807930364634.2706842897
PESHAWAR982816161220268511612246712.731790411814.9171817565
Quetta5651372867599412653364126.57539439579.1701675431
Islamabad529180889805235906radiaiont dose at 1hr482921.88622069946.4930804904
23,475,0673488249226626112665721796.19626703763.9915472601
Pakistan132352279166796096
Tokyo134168340000621
New York (Manhattan)26978153700057
1998 pop from Gov. Of Pakistan Census
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp
1Bull Atmoic scientists
area of us km2area of 50 15kt explosion 48 hr 450rad dose,km2fraction of us
93600007500.0000801282
area with rainfallfraction of us
1500000.016025641
Hiroshimazone miles from centerareapopdensity sq. mdensity sq. kmkilledinjuredfractoin killedfraction injuredcoefficnet in fraction killed
0.60.9662.92921851631200258009961.389961392670030000.85576923080.0961538462-0.2239608218
1.62.57617.90077982144800227008764.478764478839600530000.2734806630.3660220994-0.3837987149
3.14.99160.2930811218030035001351.35135135141700200000.02117061020.2490660025-0.2502147334
6800076000
Nagasaki0.60.9662.92921851630900255009845.55984555982730019000.88349514560.0614886731-0.180908159
1.62.57617.900779822770044001698.8416988417950081000.34296028880.2924187726-0.34709468
3.14.99160.29308112111520051001969.1119691121300110000.01128472220.0954861111-0.2527418284
3810021000
Karachi Killed hiroshima (I&S)
sq. m to sq. km253859.903789445-0.2731198229
2.59Karachi severely injured hiroshima (I and S)
m to km136646.727392955
1.61karachi slightly injured
Karachi centralkilled (G&D)injured (g&D)266701.160045328
Hiroshima scaling286518.38813873721378.789618248
Nagasaki scaling310582.428114514368825.46403077R2=0.9598
width of distributionwidth
1.1461.46270129531.8692405136
ln rHiroshima isakawa and Swain, table 7.9, centerd radiuszone,kmarealn densitypopdensuty sq. kmkilledseverly injuredln fratoin killed.fraction killedfraction severely injuredfraction slightly injurednumber slightly injurednormal distribuiotnjradius sqcasualties-severecasualties minorln casu sigln casu minornormnal major casualtiy
-1.38629436110.250.50.785397510.22488017232166227580.938314675119339478-0.1134357910.89276151790.02206629120.01560336073380.97648613220.06250.91482780910.9304311698-0.0890194182-0.07210717680.98550578110.9910938448
-0.28768207250.7512.356192510.02167923855303622509.1965108963422713046-0.22686965650.79702466250.05743268720.036182970119190.80722521520.56250.85445734970.8906403198-0.1572886902-0.11581461450.87686469870.9226415546
0.22314355131.251.53.92698759.718430526527116621.1377041562376897732-0.54917955880.5774233580.11845995920.145884083395220.55163523511.56250.69588331720.8417674005-0.3625732803-0.17225154930.69419168370.7995939039
0.55961578791.7525.49778258.9986748947444908092.3535989283134227627-1.19836929310.30168577210.17143178240.2588446842115160.31162903653.06250.47311755450.7319622387-0.7484113918-0.31202635280.48898961620.6450957338
0.81093021622.252.57.06857758.9164457872526867453.550590624545137830-2.45738764480.08565842920.14861633070.2685533159141490.14552998185.06250.23427475990.5028280758-1.4512606648-0.6875069650.30647374650.4845036989
1.01160091172.7538.63937258.1788101375307963564.610739958211392923-3.2972341270.03698532280.0949149240.220645538467950.0561818037.56250.13190024680.3525457852-2.0257093483-1.04257477820.17090718770.3387569827
1.17865499633.253.510.21016757.1320179211127771251.3996464798117474-4.69322802380.00915707910.03709791030.151365735319340.017929472410.56250.04625498940.1976207247-3.0735859412-1.62140561690.08480096390.2204944421
1.321755843.75411.78096257.1935926352156791330.8759789364100295-5.05490733040.00637795780.01881497540.112762293517680.004730074614.06250.02519293320.1379552267-3.6811917515-1.98082609040.03743817410.133605787
1.44691898294.254.513.35175755.86473302794705352.3880657659864-6.37693951030.00170031880.01360255050.07927736453730.001031566218.06250.01530286930.0945802338-4.179714933-2.35830676990.01470624990.0753652465
1.5581446184.75514.92255256.12430111216817456.82533199333136-5.39318756690.00454745490.00528091540.02288396661560.000185975122.56250.00982837030.0327123368-4.622482152-3.42000299990.00513999420.0395763019
78.53975
A fatalitiesfkilledfinjured
7.983597444111.80209479320.28236223780.4174140693
normal fit to hiroshma pop den
hiroshima radius for 50% casualty27446.666483987527071.51914041680fatalityerror at 2.5kmcasuality error
1.349311885824249.16590247861.34931188580.030.12
hiroshim radius for 90% casulaity1.506871936719456.51977853780
2.4592770661sigma for 1 million pop.13983.55814201282.45927706610.0001758692
6.99002.319091871600
5191.289999021100
2681.515771495200
1240.708045408700
find 555 death rate size.514.212960660800
0.950.5250.3867410235190.89766516761.4750.0077266529
0.60.70.54881163611.30
1.590.2050.20392561170
1.60.20.201896518
1.610.1950.1998876141
0.60.70.5488116361
hiroshima killed with realistic density distribuion
11.9632318572
R for 50% death rate5psi radius20 cal
2.05002712188.1669037755
10.70235617651.74794779881.2927212824
31.0557921463
51.10362450332psi10 cal
101.11106066672.9977057441.761682154
201.1111111088
2.10.9750484131
Hiorshima pop inside 3kmfatalities inside 3km
2166219339
5303642271
6527137689
4449013422
526864513
307961139
0.4417875577
267941118373
Area for desnity data
2.5'deathsJapandeathsusdeaths and casualties
Area PakistanIndia total deathsIndia pop. Density #/km^2Number of areas with densityimmdiate deaths and sefvere casualtiesPakistan popden/km^2# binseventual deathscumulative pop densityindiapakistanchina pop dencities10038182831.576680145410064183046.1235015923
83367.943733762610103183367.9437337626India lumped density 50000 interval centeered.1707114085.8240080702101541710342185340.124130908900
00125006310159116010075183136.89331066610234184448.9296418219
83425.706339536810110183425.7063395368175002861708114094.07580889520631010798489102.945307054200
0022500157025483010093183285.425725513810289184902.7786871903
84869.771483890810285184869.7714838908275001521713114135.33481301943033111108191661.00356276700
00325002403591010184184036.339600577910608187535.103150327
85067.814703687910309185067.8147036879375001715114151.8384146692409111111191685.758965241700
00425001104580010353185430.893939982610618187617.6211585758
85224.598919360610328185224.59891936064750011717114168.342016319507011207192477.931844430100
0052500705560010373185595.929956480210641187807.4125775481
85653.692562254410380185653.692562254417204914193.097418793611262192931.780889798500
00154170010382185670.196163904110696188261.2616229165
86132.297010097410438186132.29701009741757114498.414049314211831197627.055559155300
000010448186214.815018346210732188558.3264526121
86239.570420820910451186239.57042082091763114547.924854263411993198963.847292785800
000010488286544.887051341410742188640.8444608609
86833.700080212210523186833.70008021221796114820.2342814845124191102479.11444418500
000010504186676.915864539511054191215.4063182235
88186.995415492510687188186.99541549251895115637.1625631476128341105903.6117865100
000010830189367.002933450411234192700.7304667019
88599.585456736510737188599.58545673651997116478.8462472854129431106803.05807642200
000010843189474.276344173811245192791.5002757756
89342.247530975710827189342.24753097572026116718.1484712069132371109229.08751893700
000010862189631.060559846511841197709.5735674041
92774.996674125811243192774.99667412582031116759.4074753313134071110631.89365916600
000010877189754.8375722197125181103296.042725848
93187.586715369811293193187.58671536982075117122.486711626138091113949.11759076800
000010957190414.9816382101131471108486.425444697
93352.622731867411313193352.62273186742108117394.796138847139231114889.82288480400
000010985190646.0320613068133311110004.756796475
95035.990100142911517195035.99010014292183118013.681200713146241120674.33526304500
000011066191314.4279281221135961112191.484015068
95341.306730663511554195341.30673066352190118071.4438064872147581121780.07657357900
000011111191685.7589652417136641112752.60647116
95770.400373557311606195770.40037355732200118153.961814736150691124346.38663011700
000011205192461.4282427804139001114700.031465832
96331.522829649111674196331.52282964912216118285.9906279341151721125196.32211507900
000011306193294.8601260933143091118075.018003208
97181.458314611711777197181.45831461172283118838.861283201153671126805.42327593100
000011565195432.0765397372144911119576.845753336
98097.408206173411888198097.40820617342302118995.6454988738154321127341.79032954800
000011612195819.9111785065150631124296.875825167
98262.44422267111908198262.4442226712314119094.6671087723154334127350.04213037300
000011650196133.479609852152821126104.020205816
98683.286064739911959198683.28606473992348119375.2283368182162051133720.4323671800
000011851197792.0915756529158821131055.100700744
98906.084687011711986198906.08468701172352119408.2355401178169731140057.81540068800
000011900198196.429816072166311137235.699518579
100086.092204969121291100086.0922049692379119631.0341623895177031146081.63000285100
000011937198501.7464465925177591146543.730849044
100160.358412393121381100160.3584123932402119820.8255813618182651150719.14206643300
000012070199599.2359563016190471157172.050311489
100911.272287457122291100911.2722874572426120018.8688011589187251154514.97044587800
0000121601100341.898030541208851172338.860227619
101686.941564996123231101686.94156499624373620109.6386102326189411156297.35942405200
0000121741100457.423242089210191173444.601538153
102149.042411189123791102149.0424111892462120315.9336308546191101157691.91376345700
0000122101100754.488071785234511193512.981144261
102413.100037586124111102413.1000375862495120588.2430580756191661158154.0146096500
0000122251100878.265084158236911195493.413342232
102512.121647484124231102512.1216474842524120827.54528199711916811158170.518211300
0000123601101992.258195517242781200337.220426437
205073.754099918124262102536.8770499592539120951.3222943703204621168848.34847869500
0000128471106010.885197233250961207087.193501188
103106.251306876124951103106.2513068762652121883.7757875818205751169780.80197190600
0000128981106431.727039302298771246539.05324494
103287.790925023125171103287.7909250232790123022.5243014152217351179352.89092876700345237649.03397443
000134011110582.3828542176096150302.9778284685
103329.049929147125221103329.0499291473339127552.7629542743506481624.5119267400
000134021110590.6346550426101150344.2368325929
103494.085945645125421103494.0859456453376127858.079584794900
000134471110961.9656921616160150831.0930812608
103840.66158029125841103840.661580293443128410.950240061800
000135351111688.1241647516280151821.3091802464
313452.906133892126623104484.3020446313506128930.813692029300
000135641111927.4263886726287151879.0717860205
104542.064650405126691104542.0646504053549129285.641127499100
000137941113825.3405783956313152093.6186074674
105136.194309796127411105136.1943097963551129302.144729148900
000138271114097.6500056166315152110.1222091172
105746.827570837128151105746.8275708373555129335.151932448400
000140221115706.7511664676330152233.8992214904
106291.446425279128811106291.4464252793581129549.698753895300
000142021117192.0753149466335252275.1582256148
106324.453628579128851106324.4536285793633129978.79239678900
000142751117794.4567751626343152341.1726322138
106704.036466523129311106704.0364665233661130209.842819885700
000143701118578.3778535266378152629.9856610846
107116.626507767129811107116.62650776737348730812.224280101900
000144531119263.2773219916394152762.0144742827
108082.087204278130981108082.0872042784200134657.56346449600
000145441120014.1911970556398152795.0216775822
108222.367818301131151108222.3678183014742139130.03951158100
000150101123859.5303814496425153017.820299854
108841.252880167131901108841.2528801677338160551.714452969400
000150131123884.2857839236646154841.4682821525
109460.137942033132651109460.1379420338022166195.946217187300
000150161123909.0411863986670155039.5115019496
109748.950970904133001109748.9509709048074166625.039860081100
000156731129330.4743283446710155369.5835349448
109806.713576678133071109806.7135766789647179605.122557617300
000157311129809.0787761876744155650.1447629907
109814.965377503133081109814.96537750310241184506.692247596100
000157811130221.6688174316750155699.65556794
329469.651534984133093109823.217178328154351127366.54573202300
000160101132111.3312063296787156004.9721984605
110252.310821222133611110252.310821222164151135453.31054040500
000162541134124.7706075996878156755.8860735246
114460.72924191138711114460.72924191175971145206.93911541300
000171861141815.4489763886907156995.1882974461
116375.147033283141031116375.147033283177101146139.39260862500
000173631143276.0177223916925157143.720712294
117373.614933093142241117373.614933093183071151065.7177010780
000586961157440.7855419897
122646.515660191148631122646.515660191191201157774.431771706fatalities from 50 weapons0
000505370717.574076446993157704.8431683858
125394.365334876151961125394.365334876209811173131.0331068070
0006997157737.8503716853
125955.487790968152641125955.487790968215311177669.5235604910
0007167159140.6565119149
127028.221898203153941127028.221898203222741183800.6115733770
0007187159305.6925284125
127952.423590589155061127952.423590589223141184130.6836063720
0007199159404.7141383111
130056.632800934157611130056.632800934228011188149.3106080890
0007226159627.5127605829
131261.395721366159071131261.395721366241211199041.687696930
0007322160419.6856397713
1185808.53393773159679131756.503770859241262199082.9467010550
0007404161096.3333074115
132532.173048398160611132532.173048398281661232420.222033570
0007432161327.3837305081
132870.496882218161021132870.496882218294981243411.620732310
0007586162598.1610575397
134900.439885138163481134900.439885138418241345123.3176997810
007614162829.2114806363
135040.720499161163651135040.720499161238243420239.413099560
00244389627.966803167638163027.2547004334
137631.785958173166791137631.785958173fatalities from 50 weapons0
007925165395.521537174
138754.030870357168151138754.0308703570
008237167970.0833945365
138902.563285205168331138902.563285205
00
142038.247598659172131142038.24759865916
00
287443.22993387174172143721.614966935
00
145784.565173155176671145784.565173155
00
146015.615596252176951146015.615596252
00
147344.155529057178561147344.155529057
00
164128.318406863198901164128.318406863
00
164821.469676153199741164821.469676153
00
167412.535135165202881167412.535135165
00
167503.304944239202991167503.304944239
00
167585.822952488203091167585.822952488
00
168320.233225902203981168320.233225902
00
168510.024644874204211168510.024644874
00
169079.398901791204901169079.398901791
00
677406.833316049205234169351.708329012
00
172066.550800398208521172066.550800398
00
172809.212874637209421172809.212874637
00
177199.170913473214741177199.170913473
00
185508.734344127224811185508.734344127
00
188339.102027061228241188339.102027061
00
192233.952016404232961192233.952016404
00
204223.818614955247491204223.818614955
00
208357.97082822252501208357.97082822
00
1476469.9661933255617210924.280884758
00
211196.590311979255941211196.590311979
00
211551.417747449256371211551.417747449
00
212228.065415089257191212228.065415089
00
3897639.098022172624118216535.505445676
00
251803.702171213305151251803.702171213
00
261194.251509927316531261194.251509927
00
267556.389945909324241267556.389945909
00
279521.501141985338741279521.501141985
00
280280.666817874339661280280.666817874
00
280618.990651694340071280618.990651694
00
335856.545373441407011335856.545373441
00
401433.606528762486481401433.606528762
00
451431.26772671547071451431.26772671
00
2741413.27004163553706456902.211673605
154505657706.95496495
fatalities from 50 weaponsNumber of bombs on indiaeventual fatalities
12888867.29121850
Deaths in ww11Number of weapons to produce ww11 deathscasualties for 50 weapons
India21860002284511.058368035
Japan21720002248813.767999618
China175000006481624.5119267450
us413000453626.2467461282
pakistan2325043.9040198411
Fires
Area burned hiroshima km2number of weapons
1350650
fuel loading 40g/cm2fuel terragramsfraction of fuel burnedfuel burnedfraction of fuel as smokesoot emitted Tgsoot not wased out facotr 0.8 in Tgsurface area NH m2soot in g/m2absorption cross section m2/gabsorption optical depthsingle scatter albedoextinction optical depth
402600.51300.056.552000000000002.50E+142.08E-0271.46E-010.40.2426666667
Gases emitted
fuel burned,T gco 1o0g/1000g,TgNO from explosionsfrom fire
130130.003750.26
radiation glasstone and dolan
rate rad/hrdistance kmmax widthgrnd 0 widthtravel time hrs48 hr unsheltered dose
30005.14143860910.12484525990.20009040390.214226608713513.4578546298
10009.80.450.450.413700
30024.51.261.21810
10048.53.11.92.02204
100% fatalities length100% with rainzero with rain
7.869700711722.091334369411.474651330332.2109275303
width
0.35497779320.95839201051.4109749374
fire loading
area of San Jose affectedkm^2
370
fuel affected Tg
1.5
loading g/cm^2
0.4054054054
Mf g/personpeople/km2fuel load g/cm2Bush linear
7000.771.4356
10001.11.7056
1.10E+0720002.22.6056
4.00E+034.44.4056
60006.66.2056
80008.88.0056
10000119.8056
200002218.8056
400004436.8056
600006654.8056
800008872.8056
San Jose simonett
fuel garea cm21980 popfuel loadpopden
4.60E+124.60E+12629,2461.30E+001.37E+03
SmallBush et fuel loaidng for region of the us
fuel /m2 residential assuming 10% area is occupied by housesmean area of house m2houses /km2pop den 4 per housedensityfuel loax
1.316062525001460.99290780142.072000.22
9001.614000.44
Peczkis dresden g/cm2796.61016949151.46000.66
221066.32653061221.948000.88
734.74801061011.5210001.1
Lucas Hamburg1443.5797665372.1312001.32
Pop density,km^-2fuel loading lbs/ft2ostpfuel loading g/cm2Average fuel loading14001.54
200003215.6038751346mass emittedfuel load16001.76
India3.6735.2884615385
Ebert wood in Hamburg kg4e7 cm2=1acre to get fuel oadJapan1.9218.4615384615
129235232.3088Pakistan2.0519.7115384615
Scope 28
47
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2
0.89276151790.97648613220.91482780910.93043116980.98550578110.9910938448
0.79702466250.80722521520.85445734970.89064031980.87686469870.9226415546
0.5774233580.55163523510.69588331720.84176740050.69419168370.7995939039
0.30168577210.31162903650.47311755450.73196223870.48898961620.6450957338
0.08565842920.14552998180.23427475990.50282807580.30647374650.4845036989
0.03698532280.0561818030.13190024680.35254578520.17090718770.3387569827
0.00915707910.01792947240.04625498940.19762072470.08480096390.2204944421
0.00637795780.00473007460.02519293320.13795522670.03743817410.133605787
0.00170031880.00103156620.01530286930.09458023380.01470624990.0753652465
0.00454745490.00018597510.00982837030.03271233680.00513999420.0395763019
Table 7.9 Ishikawa and Swain, 1981
normal distribution
Casualties (major)
Casualties minor
normal 2
normal 3
Radius, km
Probability
Probability of death or injury following Hiroshima blast
Sheet3
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Hiroshima populaotn density
normal
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ln density of Hiroshima
675.99
180.8817561114
78.7333573364
34.2706842897
14.9171817565
9.1701675431
6.4930804904
3.9915472601
ARea with 48 hour 450 rad dose
time, hrs
area, km2
Area with 48 hour 450 rad dose
13513.4578546298
3700
810
204
48 hours unsheltered dose
km downwind
dose
y = 266025x-1.8384R2 = 0.9984
0.2000904039
0.45
1.2
1.9
width versusdose
dose, rads
cross wind width, km
fuel loading
San jose (Simonett)
Hamburg OSTP
Hamburg Ebert
Hamburg Scope
Bush
bush linear fit
population density, km-2
fuel loading
Bush et al fuel load
Our eq.
Simonett
MBD02301B88.xls
MBD036D9CAF.xls
-
Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons
Chart13
1.41
2.22
5.22
2.63
1.05
3.67
2.4
0.85
1.92
2.9
1.89
0.91
1.2
Soot, Tg
Soot, Tg
Sheet1
Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.57142857144,337,0002,394,000810,0003,204,0001.4113
Brazil385,000266,00011.003850007,962,0004,370,0001,834,0006,204,0002.2221
China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.228915662716,716,0009,306,0002,554,00011,860,0005.2250
Egypt612,000601,00085001.00727,834,0004,384,0001,656,0006,040,0002.6325
France269,000198,000592,0003.000.45439189193,509,0001,879,000923,0002,802,0001.0510
India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.333333333312,424,0006,494,0002,539,0009,033,0003.6735
Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.63777777787,431,0004,231,0001,371,0005,602,0002.423
Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.35714285712,594,0001,538,000323,0001,861,0000.858
Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.10454758565,890,0003,023,0001,766,0004,789,0001.9219
Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.8759,171,0005,112,0001,525,0006,637,0002.928
Russia299,000237,00017,700,00050.000.01689265546,273,0003,543,0001,299,0004,842,0001.8918
U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.27814569542,891,0001,565,000792,0002,357,0000.919
U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.50864197534,056,0002,203,000872,0003,075,0001.212
airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous50 weapon airburst50 weapon ground burst
fatalities in prevous wars
Sheet1
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Previous conflicts
Airburst Fatalities
Densest location
2nd Densest location
Fatalities, Highest Density Location
Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location
Falities from Previous Conflicts
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fraction of previous wars from one weapon
Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Number of Explosions
Number of Explosions to Equal Fatalities in Previous Wars
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50 airburst fatalities
Fatalities
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
Fatalities
airburstgroundburstradiationgroundburst+radiation
Airburst
ground burst
radiation
ground+radiation
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Soot, Tg
Soot, Tg
-
Global ozone loss
-
SummaryThe number of nuclear states is growing40 countries have enough fissionable materials for 1-104 weapons.Modern nuclear weapons are small and lightweight. One weapon detonated by a terrorist could cause a million casualties.50 nuclear explosions of 15 kt yield can cause as many fatalities as once projected for a full scale counterforce war between the superpowers.Large amounts of smoke can be generated from a regional war that could trigger global climate change and ozone loss affecting non-combatant countries.
-
ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTSAND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. StenchikovAtmos. Chem. Phys. . 7, 2003-2012, 2007
andBased on the Papers:CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTS Alan Robock, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, Richard P. Turco Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002, 2007
-
End of talk the following are spare slides
-
1-100 weapons100-1000 weapons>1000 weaponsD. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.org40 countries have the fissile material to build at least one bomb
-
Radiation Fatalities for Various Countries from 50 weapons with yield of 15 kt
Chart11
433700023940008100003204000
7962000437000018340006204000
167160009306000255400011860000
7834000438400016560006040000
350900018790009230002802000
12424000649400025390009033000
7431000423100013710005602000
259400015380003230001861000
5890000302300017660004789000
9171000511200015250006637000
6273000354300012990004842000
289100015650007920002357000
405600022030008720003075000
Fatalities
airburstgroundburstradiationgroundburst+radiation
Airburst
ground burst
radiation
ground+radiation
Sheet1
Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.57142857144,337,0002,394,000810,0003,204,000
Brazil385,000266,00011.003850007,962,0004,370,0001,834,0006,204,000
China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.228915662716,716,0009,306,0002,554,00011,860,000
Egypt612,000601,00085001.00727,834,0004,384,0001,656,0006,040,000
France269,000198,000592,0003.000.45439189193,509,0001,879,000923,0002,802,000
India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.333333333312,424,0006,494,0002,539,0009,033,000
Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.63777777787,431,0004,231,0001,371,0005,602,000
Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.35714285712,594,0001,538,000323,0001,861,000
Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.10454758565,890,0003,023,0001,766,0004,789,000
Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.8759,171,0005,112,0001,525,0006,637,000
Russia299,000237,00017,700,00050.000.01689265546,273,0003,543,0001,299,0004,842,000
U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.27814569542,891,0001,565,000792,0002,357,000
U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.50864197534,056,0002,203,000872,0003,075,000
airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous50 weapon airburst50 weapon ground burst
fatalities in prevous wars
Sheet1
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Previous conflicts
Airburst Fatalities
Densest location
2nd Densest location
Fatalities, Highest Density Location
Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location
Falities from Previous Conflicts
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fraction of previous wars from one weapon
Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Number of Explosions
Number of Explosions to Equal Fatalities in Previous Wars
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50 airburst fatalities
Fatalities
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
Fatalities
airburstgroundburstradiationgroundburst+radiation
Airburst
ground burst
radiation
ground+radiation
This slide shows the total number of warheads as a function of time, based on the data of Norris. Note that the figure also has the number of deployed weapons. Russia has many weapons that are not deployed, as does the U.S. Current agreements call for deployed warheads to be about 4000 in 2012. However total warheads will remain about 20000 since they do not need to be destroyed.
These data are from David Albright, although Sidney Drells book has a similar graph. The ? indicates we are not sure when some of the states developed weapons. Otherwise the date marks the first nuclear test. South Africa destroyed its weapons. Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan inherited weapons from the Soviet Union, and returned them to Russia.The estimated number of weapons is given followed by the 90% uncertainty values. These are based on Albrights estimates of Pu, and HEU and an assumed mass needed per weapon. The dates are when nuclear tests occurred. The North Korean arsenal is very uncertain. De Facto means a state that acquired weapons outside of the non-proliferation treaty.
We used data from Hiroshima on casualties and fatalities as a function of distance from ground zero to estimate fatalities in a future conflict with 15 kton weapons. Knowing the chance of fatality as a function of distance we used a population data base to estimate fatalities for a number of countries. In each case the assumed the most populated areas were attacked. Usually these were in megacities.
Fatality and casualty values can be found in our papers. Here we express the fatalities from one explosion relative to those in previous wars. The bars above 1 indicate that India, Pakistan, Egypt, Israel and so forth would suffer about 100 times as many fatalities from one explosion as in previous wars they have fought. Bars below 1 indicate several weapons are needed to equal fatalities in previous wars. For example 3 weapons exploded in the U.S. would cause fatalities greater that US losses in WW-II.
The table presents fatalities from various studies in the 1980s for the use of the major arsenals. The last two rows show that if the U.S. were attacked with 50 weapons of 15 kt yield each that 4 million would die, roughly what was estimated for a counterforce war with the Soviet Union. A war between India and Pakistan (100 weapons) would kill more than 20 million, half of all WW-II losses.
A fire storm occurred in Hiroshima. The energy release in the fire was more than 1000 times that in the nuclear explosion. Black rain fell after the blast.In order to estimate the amount of soot released in various places, we used data to find the amount of fuel per person. Then we could use the land use data base to find the amount of fuel burned in the equivalent area that was burned at Hiroshima.We estimate that from 1-5 Tg of elemental carbon would be released, and emplaced in the upper troposphere, for an attack on various countries. 1Tg is a million metric tons.Data show that smoke from intense fires rises into the stratosphere. There it absorbs sunlight, heating the stratosphere and cooling the ground. Robock has found the smoke will rise to high altitude in the stratosphere due to the solar heating. We find this also with the National Center for Atmospheric Research climate model. This is important because it doesnt rain in the stratosphere so the soot can remain there many years. The slide shows temperature increase of 50K out to 3 years.
The increased temperatures, and changes in dynamics alter stratospheric ozone. The normal ozone (blue) includes the ozone hole marked by the value indicated by the green line. The value 3 years after the nuclear war is shown in orange, and is more than 50% less than normal at northern midlatitudes.
Next slide shows the countries which have enough Pu, of HEU to make weapons if they wished.
We also computed the fatalities from blast and thermal radiation in ground bursts, and from radioactivity in ground bursts. These are compared with airburst fatalities here.