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Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg [email protected].
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Transcript of Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg [email protected].
![Page 2: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presentation Outline
![Page 3: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Presentation Outline
Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment
![Page 4: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Presentation Outline
Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment
Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions
![Page 5: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Presentation Outline
Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment
Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions
Argue that the “weak” position is the most interesting position
![Page 6: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Magnifying Glass Example
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Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?
![Page 8: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?
Von Wright: “Yes”
![Page 9: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?
Von Wright: “Yes”
What makes action so special?
![Page 10: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Magnifying Glass Example
Does the intervention need to be a human action?
Von Wright: “Yes”
What makes action so special? Von Wright: There is a conceptual connection
between the concepts of causation and action
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Counterfactual Element in Action
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Counterfactual Element in Action Certain changes in nature would not have
occurred had we not produced them
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Counterfactual Element in Action Certain changes in nature would not have
occurred had we not produced them
We can only act because we are confident that the world remains fairly stable
![Page 14: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Strong vs Weak
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Strong vs Weak
Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p
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Strong vs Weak
Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p
Weak: We distinguish between causal relations and accidental regularities by using the notion of action, which is conceptually connected with the notion of causation
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“Causalaria”
![Page 18: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
“Causalaria”
![Page 19: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
“Causalaria”
![Page 20: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
“Causalaria”
![Page 21: Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels.vanmiltenburg@phil.uu.nl.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062417/551ae6675503465e7d8b49fd/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
“Causalaria”
A
B
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Hume
Given the fact that we can only observe regularly succeeding events, why do we see them as causally linked?
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Confidence and Knowledge
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Confidence and Knowledge
Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act
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Confidence and Knowledge
Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act
Analogy with Anscombe’s ‘knowledge without observation’
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Thanks for Listening