Computer aided network planning and techno-economic...
Transcript of Computer aided network planning and techno-economic...
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Mitcsenkov Attila (BME TMIT, High Speed Networks Laboratory) 21 October 2014
Computer aided network planning and techno-economic
assessment of next generation optical access networks
Complex network planning methodology and framework
Image: Sumitomo Electric Lightwave
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• Optical fiber “approaches” the customers:
- FTTC FTTB FTTH
• A.) Point-to-point Dedicated optical fiber to all customers
• B.) Point-multipoint systems Shared optical “feeder network”
- Active (e.g. Active Ethernet)
- Passive (PON)
Next Generation Access (NGA) networks
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• „History”: ABON, BPON
• Currently deployed: - EPON (USA & Asia) / GPON (EU)
• Recent „upgrade”: - NGPON-1 10G EPON / 10G GPON
• Near future: - NGPON-2 TWDM PON, 40G
• Future development: - WDM PON (“virtual point-to-point”)
- Colorless vs. Tunable: no clear winner yet…
Passive Optical Networks (PON)
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• Next Generation Access networks
- Short / near term demand: 100 Mb/s – 1 Gb/s per customer
- The common phrase: optical access is a “must”
• „FTTH boom”:
- Global Industry Analysts Inc.: 183.9 million FTTH/B subscriptions worldwide by 2015
- Deutche Telekom “will invest almost 30 billion euros over the next three years in order to ensure “the future of telecommunications.” (2012 – FTTC VDSL, Fiber & LTE)
- …
• What does it cost?
• Who will pay for it?
• Does it make sense?
Network design – The Motivation
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• Economic aspects:
- Cost estimation
- Return of Investment, Cash Flow, … Business Case Analysis
- “What do engineers now about business…””
• Technical aspects:
- Quality parameters (bandwidth, delay, reliability, …)
- Support network planning: what and where to deploy?
- “Never let the marketing guys decide…”
• Decision support:
- Lowest cost vs. future proof technologies (e.g. VDSL vs. WDM PON)
- Best fitting solutions for each service area
The “crystal ball” : Techno-economic analysis
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• Some fundamental questions:
- What is the cost of deploying a GPON network in XY area?
- And what about Active Ethernet, VDSL or Point-to-Point?
- Which one is the best?
- (what does “best” mean?)
The beginning Once upon a time…
?
?
?
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• How to estimate the costs?
• Who will trust our estimation?
• Why exactly *** € / $? Why not less/more?
• We did a research of the literature (not to reinvent the wheel…)
- Rules of thumb: average cost per customer (but we didn’t have data for Hungary…)
- Geometric models to estimate the physical infrastructure (but our areas were not that regular / homogeneous…)
„Think, think, think…”
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Geometric models 1. Triangle Model
E
A
B
C
D
R
F
F
FF
F
F
F F
F F
F
FP1
FP2
végpont
Kábel típus #1
Kábel típus #5
Kábel típus #4
Kábel típus #3
Kábel típus #2
α
AB BC R / 3 cos( / 2)
2CD CE R / 6 1 8 sin ( / 2)
DF R 0,132 0,336 n
Analytic calculations
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Geometric models 2. Simplified Street Length model
Analytic calculations
n houses in a row
l = distance
between two houses
The central office
at the center
This serves n2
customers
2I n (n 1) l (n 1) l (n 1) l
n 1
i 1
F 4 l min i,n i n i
N: buildings in each street
L: distance between neighboring buildings
CO – Central Office in the geometric median, serving n2 customers
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• How to estimate the costs?
• Who will trust our estimation?
• Why exactly *** € / $? Why not less/more?
• We did a research of the literature (not to reinvent the wheel…)
• Investigate the map
- “How big” network?
- How complicated “field”?
- How to adapt the geometric models?
- Knowing the network, we could answer all questions…
Think, think, think…”
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• High level network design
- Network connections, system design, location of equipment, …
• Detailed and accurate information about the necessary physical infrastructure
- Network equipment
- Cable plant
- Optical fiber needs
• Provide “Bill of Material”
• Techno-economic analysis:
- Reliable preliminary cost estimation
- Comparison of technologies
Solution: Strategic design
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• Design “guesswork” :
- Human creativity
- Time consuming
- N-1 unnecessary designs!
• Computer aided network design:
- Time and cost savings
- Repetitious calculations with variable parameters
- Highly complex
- Data availability
- Computing capacity
How to provide the “strategic design”?
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• Geographic Information System (GIS) data and digital maps
• Increased computational capacity
• Modern algorithms
Map based, automatic design of access networks
• The technical preconditions were not met earlier (calling for the use of geometric models)
Opportunities that made the computer able to deliver
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Challenges, model, cost function and constraints
Network planning as an optimization problem
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What do we expect? What is a “good” network design?
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What do we expect? What is a “good” network design?
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Which one is the “better” PON network? Why?
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• How to translate the problem to mathematics?
- Modeling
- Cost function
- Constraints
• What is an optimal, or at least good topology?
- Economic aspects: what costs to consider?
• Complexity
- NP-hard (@see Travelling Salesman Problem)
- Large scale problem instances (10.000+ households)
Challenges
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e 2
e3
e1 e4co
coKözpont (Central
Office, CO)
Elosztóhálózati
összeköttetés
Törzshálózati
összeköttetés
Gráfpont
Végpont
Elosztópont
Megengedett
elosztópont hely
Nem használt
hálózati szakasz
e 2
e3
e1 e4
Gráfél
Gráfpont
e 2
e3
e1 e4co
coKözpont (Central
Office, CO)
Gráfpont
Végpont
Megengedett
elosztóponti hely
Lehetséges
hálózati
összeköttetés
CO
Törzshálózat Elosztóhálózat
Központ
(Central
Office, CO)
Végpont/
előfizető
Elosztópont
Törzshálózat
Elosztóhálózat
Előfizetői
csoport
{i}
Modeling – translate it to the computer! Point-to-multipoint networks
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• Flexible, accurate, parametric
• Contains all necessary data – and nothing else!
- Potential network links
- Distances
- Customer data
- Equipment locations
Network graph model
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Goal: minimize costs
CAPEX Deployment cost
OPEX Operation,
Maintenance
Topology-dependent costs
(e.g. cable plant)
Topology-independent costs
(e.g. user modems)
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Cable plant
- Two levels: deployment + fiber costs
- Stepwise: discrete increments
- Existing infrastructure (!)
Network equipment
- Central Office
- Distribution Units
- Customers
Relation between these:
- More distribution units less cable/fiber infrastructure
- Two extremities: point-to-point network (1 distribution units / ∞ distribution units)
Cost function „All inclusive”
C0
C0+n·Cv
Kábelhálózat
költsége
#szálszám
Építési
költségek
Telepítési
költésg
Szálköltség
} Kábelhálózat
létrehozása
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• Constraint set:
- Distance limitations
- Complete access network reach
- Feeder network reach
- Distribution network reach
- Differential distance
- Capacity of distribution units
Physical and technical constraints
Központ
Végpont
Elosztópont
(Pl.. ETH Switch)
Törzshálózat
Elosztóhálózat
Előfizetői
csoport
{i}
{i}
L feedm
ax
L feedmax
Törzshálózat
hatósugara
Ldist max
Törzshálózat
hatósugara
Elosztóhálózat
hatósugara Ldist max
Elosztóhálózat
hatósugara
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How to solve?
The challenge is given…
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• Fundamentals of optimization: “No Free Lunch” Theorem
» Specialized algorithms needed
- Follow the designers’ way of thinking
- Identify technology specific constraints and costs
1. Subproblems and decomposition 2. Specialization
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• Costs:
- Cable plant dominates
- Splitter costs: low
• Network reach: 20 km not decisive
• Primary goal: optimal clustering
• Solution:
- Maximize shared cable segments
- Clustering on the Shortest Path Tree
- Typically tree topologies…
Passive Optical Networks (GPON)
Központ
Végpont
Splitter
Törzshálózat
Elosztóhálózat
Előfizetői
csoport
{i}
{i}
Lm
ax
Lmax
Hálózat
hatósugara
GPON
10GPON
(WDM-PON)
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Branch Contracting Algorithm
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• Costs: - Distribution Unit: high CAPEX + OPEX
- Cable plant: high costs…
• Network reach: 20+3 km (not sharp)
• Main goal: - Minimize distribution units / groups
- Optimal clustering:
- No overlapping
- Nearby distribution unit
• Solution: - Iterative “bottom-up” clustering
- Increase group size if possible
- Avoid overlapping
Active Optical Networks (AETH)
Központ
Végpont
Elosztópont
(Pl.. ETH Switch)
Törzshálózat
Elosztóhálózat
Előfizetői
csoport
{i}
{i}
L feedm
ax
L feedmax
Törzshálózat
hatósugara
Ldist max
Törzshálózat
hatósugara
Elosztóhálózat
hatósugara Ldist max
Elosztóhálózat
hatósugara
Active
Ethernet
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• Costs: - DSLAM: high CAPEX + OPEX
- Copper: almost for free
• Constraints: - Decisive: 300/800 m copper reach
• Goal: - Minimize DSLAMs, respect reach
constraints
• Solution: - Greedy algorithm
- Prioritize critical customer nodes
- Top-down clustering
Hybrid copper + fiber (VDSL)
Központ
Végpont
Elosztópont
(DSLAM)
Törzshálózat
(optika)
Elosztóhálózat
(réz)
Előfizetői
csoport
{i}
{i}L feed
max
L feedmax
Törzshálózat
hatósugara
Ldist m
ax
Optikai törzshálózat
hatósugara
Rézhálózat
hatósugara
Ldist max Elosztóhálózat
(réz)
hatósugara
DSL
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• Costs:
- Cable plant costly
- Especially the deployment costs (with scarce networks)
• Goal:
- Minimize trenching / digging
• Solution:
- Steiner-tree problem
- Distance Network Heuristics (DNH):
- Graph-transformations + minimal cost spanning tree
Point-to-point optical networks
Központ
Végpont
Hozzűférési
hálózat
Lm
ax
Lmax
Hálózat
hatósugara
Pont-pont
optika
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Computer aided optical access network design in practice
AccessPlan Framework
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• Economic analysis
- Cost estimation (CAPEX)
- Business Case Analysis
- Compare technologies, decision support
• Geographic + Infrastructure Data
- Handling digital maps
- Existing infrastructure
AccessPlan Framework Modular setup
• Build network model
- Graph, nodes and edges
- Cost data
- Technical parameters and constraints
• Topology optimization
- Clustering, group formulation
- Distribution Unit placement
- Connection establishment
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AccessPlan input data
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Strategic network design
System design
Location of network
equipment
Bill of Material
(cable plant, equipment)
• Detailed input for further analysis and comparison
• Technical:
- Performance analysis
- Possible and guaranteed service levels
- Reliability, identification (protection) of critical nodes
• Economic:
- Cost estimation
- Business Case Analysis
• Does everything provided by the geometric models, but more accurate, detailed and reliable…
AccessPlan Results
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Let’s see an example…
Case study
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AccessPlan: select area
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Example: Sashegy (Budapest)
Sashegy, Budapest Districts 11/12
Area of a Central Office 5 km2 / 4500 customers
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• Inhomogeneous area
- Family, mid-size and large block houses
- Nature reserve area
- Cemetery
• Existing infrastructure
- Partly re-usable substructures
- Existing copper network
• Different cabling technologies – makes a cost difference
- Aerial cables and poles
- Existing substructures
- New trenching
Parameters of the case study
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• 82 km street system
- 60 km existing infrastructure
- 2 km aerial network
- 20 km new trenching
• Graph model:
- 8000 nodes
- 8500 edges
• Map, street system & infrastructure
Phase #1: Process input data
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• Customer database
• Demand points:
- 4239 households in
- 1079 buildings
• Graph model:
- 10 300 nodes
- 10 424 edges
Phase #1: Process input data
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AccessPlan: planning rules and cost data
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After a few minutes…
• Topology
• System design
• Location of network equipment
Phase #2: Topology design
• Technical & physical constraints
• Cost database (cost function)
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Phase #3: Transform back onto the map
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• Topology information, network characteristics
- System design
- Location of network equipment
- Fiber, cable and equipment needs
• Business Case Analysis
- CAPEX, OPEX, Cash Flow, Payback, etc.
• Techno-economic analysis, comparison
- GPON, 10GPON, Active Ethernet, VDSL, Point-to-point fiber, …
• Any custom reports and analytics
- Based on detailed topology information
- Upon request of the network operator
Phase #4: Reports and analyses
![Page 45: Computer aided network planning and techno-economic ...opti.tmit.bme.hu/netplan/2014en/slides/VITMM215_2014_EN_10.pdf · •Some fundamental questions: - What is the cost of deploying](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042118/5e96a4ae6b066f56403a1099/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
AccessPlan: plans and results
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AccessPlan: analyses
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0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
P2P GPON AETH VDSL
CAPEX M EUR
Techno-economic analysis 1/4 Reports: CAPEX estimation
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Techno-economic analysis 2/4 Reports: Cash Flow
GPO
N
Pont-
pont
Eth
ern
et
Éves Cash Flow
Éves Cash Flow
Akkumulált Cash Flow
Akkumulált Cash Flow
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
5 000 800 300
EU
R /
há
zta
rtá
s
Háztartás / km2
VDSL: 25 Mb/s vs. 50 Mb/s
VDSL25 VDSL50
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
5 000 800 300
EU
R /
há
zta
rtá
s
Háztartás / km2
GPON: 50 Mb/s vs. 100 Mb/s
GPON50 GPON100
Techno-economic analysis 3/4 Reports: CAPEX vs. bandwidth
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Techno-economic analysis 4/4 Reports: cost per bit
0 Ft
200 Ft
400 Ft
600 Ft
800 Ft
1 000 Ft
1 200 Ft
1 400 Ft
P2P FTTH P2P FTTB 10GPONFTTH
10GPONFTTB
WDMPONFTTH
WDMPONFTTB
Ft / bit/sec
Agglomeráció 1 021 Ft 1 035 Ft 587 Ft 548 Ft 243 Ft 244 Ft
Kertváros 925 Ft 1 088 Ft 644 Ft 617 Ft 236 Ft 295 Ft
Belváros 1 039 Ft 1 260 Ft 788 Ft 717 Ft 270 Ft 347 Ft
1 Mb/s sávszélesség ára (Ft / Mb/s)