Complexity,  dynamic  Complexity,  dynamic  systems  and  risk:  systems  and  risk:  The  science  and  The  science  and  engineering  of  engineering  of  sustainabilitysustainability

Carol BoyleDirector

International Centre for Sustainability Engineering and

ResearchUniversity of Auckland

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SustainabilitySustainability

Ensuring the needs of the current generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations

4 generations = 100 years

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Existing CitiesExisting Cities

Damascus – 5000 yrs old Athens – 7000 yrs old

Prague 2000 yrs old

London 2000 yrs ago

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Unsustainable CitiesUnsustainable Cities

Easter Island

Machu PichuMesa Verde

New Orleans

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Goals and Assumptions for Goals and Assumptions for the Futurethe Future

Goals

Humans will be here

Current cities will be here

Assumptions

Materials and energy will still be required

Human basic needs will not have changed

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Facing RealityFacing Reality

We are dealing with complex systems which have multiple external and internal interactions and feedbacks

Both spatial boundaries and time frames are locality and system dependant

We don’t know the limits or thresholds of most environmental or social systems

These systems are dynamic, changing over space and time

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ComplexComplex

Biological Environment

Climate/Weather

HydrologicalEnvironment

ChemicalEnvironment

Geological/GeographicalEnvironment

Solar Energy

LunarGravitation

SocialSystem

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Social SystemSocial System

CentralGovernment

CommunitiesBusinesses

Institutions

LocalGovernments

NGOs

Public Service

Social System

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TimeframeYears Water Soil Land Food1 Annual rainfall,

flooding, runoff,pollution

Erosion, nutrientlevel, organiccontent, pollution

Management of existingland use

Annual production,cash/food crop,pest prevention

5-10 Storage, groundwatercontamination

Heavy metalaccumulation, soilhealth

Residential/commercial/industrial development

Crop rotations,disease and pestmanagement

10-50 Climate Salinisation,compaction,desertification, soilhealth

Urban/ruraldevelopment

Climate suitabilityfor crops,production energyrequirements

50-100 Recharge ofundergroundstorage systems

Gradual soil loss,soil health

Floodplaindevelopment,volcanic/seismicactivity

Long term cropmanagement

100-500 Climate changes;effects onmax/min rainfall

Soil loss, soilhealth

Infrastructure Species diversity,social stability

1000 Local supply fordrinking,sanitation, foodproduction,ecosystemsupport

Soil abundance,health

Transportationcorridors, developmentareas

Long term localproduction ofminimum supplyfor local population

return

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Dynamic SystemsDynamic SystemsSystems and system components respond to fellow systems

and components in unique ways but follow general rules and are bounded by system limitations

Systems adjust to new situations

As systems evolve, they become larger, more complex and the systems generally become more efficient

They exhibit fractal characteristics, not only in spatial scale but also in temporal scale

They evolve in unusual and unpredictable ways and exhibit emergence

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Complexity and ChaosComplexity and Chaos

Order RandomChaosComplexity

No rulesStrict rules

Edge of Chaos

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Dynamic SystemsDynamic Systems

Feedback influences system behaviour but feedback may be delayed by varying amounts, increasing the complexity of the dynamic behaviour

The system is defined by the environmental and social parameters which usually fluctuate within limits; should the system parameters exceed those limits, the system attractor changes and the system either fails or evolves into another system

Both environmental and human systems exhibit self organisation, which assists in maintaining the system within its limits

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Atmospheric convection – the Lorenzo attractor

The self organisation nature of complex systems results in a probability distribution

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System NeedsSystem Needs

Each system has basic needs in order to be maintained

For humans, we have both physical and psychological needs

While many system needs are obvious, others may be quite obscure and others are closely interlinked

Systems which have multiple sources or ways of managing their needs have inherent resilience so are not at the same risk as systems with single sources

Sustainability is focused on the provision of needs to ensure that social systems are sustained

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SurvivalSurvival

By ensuring we are meeting basic needs, we are only ensuring the survival of human kind

This is a threshold below which we start to see degradation in human health, increasing infant and child mortality, decreased life span, loss of social cohesion and increasing civil unrest

We need a better understanding of system limits to provide for those needs so we can ensure we do not fall below that threshold

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Systems and ProbabilitySystems and ProbabilityWhile the future of the systems cannot be specifically

identified some level of probability can be determined

The risk of the system moving outside its boundaries needs to be identified

Issues:

Variables within natural and human systems lie within a range; they tend to be fuzzy

Variables are dependant on local conditions

Linkages are highly varied and dependant on local conditions and local systems

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Sustainability of SystemsSustainability of SystemsThe systems which make up society and which support

human survival need to be better identified and understood including:

The overall dynamics of the systems and the linkages between systems

The risks to those systems, the implications of those risks and risk mitigations measures

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Risk - Knowns and UnknownsRisk - Knowns and Unknowns

Known Probability & Consequence

Some UnknownsEither

Probabilities orConsequences

UnknownsBoth

Probabilities &Consequences

Widget failureRisk of accident

Pollution

Climate Change ?

Peak Oil

Tipping pointsSocietal collapseAsteroid strike

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The Science of SustainabilityThe Science of SustainabilitySustainability: meeting the needs of humans now and for

future generations

The needs of humans have to be identified

Sustainability can only be considered on a local basis

Can be measured only through risk

Systems and their linkages need to be considered

The rules that the systems follow are critical in defining the behaviour of the system

By setting some constraints on human activities, the future risk can be reduced

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Sustainability EngineeringSustainability EngineeringWe need to consider needs analysis not demand analysis

Engineers, planners, architects need to recognise that they often build ‘engineered needs’ into urban, infrastructure, building and product design

There ARE system limits and they must be acknowledged and incorporated into engineering design

We cannot solve all problems with technology

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Bringing Businesses on BoardBringing Businesses on BoardBusinesses are an integral component of society

They will play a significant role in achieving sustainability

Many businesses are now starting to look beyond profit, greed and the five year horizon

They are acknowledging that to have a longer lifespan, the company needs a longer term vision

The focus on company needs and risk to the company is readily understood by management

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Risks to BusinessesRisks to BusinessesEconomic – economic and production shortages of energy

and materials (especially metals)

Legislative – requirements in Europe are driving many companies to rethink product design

Social – companies are beginning to realise the value of a well trained employee

Climate change – this will require a total change of mindframe if companies are to reduce CO2 emissions

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Risks to BusinessesRisks to BusinessesProduct innovation – important to maintaining a

competitive edge

Public perception - This can make or break a company

Businesses are an integral component of society and are necessary for its effective function

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Current Viewpoints in NZCurrent Viewpoints in NZYoung engineers see sustainability as having huge

opportunities and as being highly attractive

Companies are now seeing sustainability as inevitable

Consulting firms are scrambling to establish themselves as ‘The sustainability consultant’

The government is promoting sustainability strongly

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Current Viewpoints in NZCurrent Viewpoints in NZThe term sustainability is still used with little understanding

Most councils and companies are happy with ‘greenwash’

There is little distinction between environmental improvement and sustainability

Many companies think sustainability is too hard

The public thinks sustainability is riding a bike and recycling newspapers

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Current DirectionsCurrent DirectionsUsing dynamic modelling and GIS software to model systems

and their general boundaries, linkages

Determine the decisions which primarily influence sustainability

Identify the roles of various players in influencing those decisions

Determine the risks to systems (environmental, social, business) over the short, medium and long term

Determine the roles of engineers and business in sustainability

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Sustainability and the FutureSustainability and the Future

Science of Sustainability Infrastructure – water management Energy

Sustainable Product Design/Sustainability of Businesses Furniture Electronic goods Appliances

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“…what now remains compared with what then existed is like the skeleton of a sick man, all the fat and soft earth having wasted away, and only the bare framework of the land being left…”

Plato writing about Attica, 2,400 years ago

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Dynamic SystemsDynamic Systems