Achieving SustainabilityAchieving Sustainability

Carol BoyleDeputy Director

International Centre for Sustainability Engineering and

ResearchUniversity of Auckland

SustainabilitySustainability

Ensuring the needs of the current generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations

4 generations = 100 years

Damascus - Over five Damascus - Over five thousand years oldthousand years old

Athens – nearly 7000 Athens – nearly 7000 years oldyears old

Prague – 2000 years oldPrague – 2000 years old

London – 2000 years oldLondon – 2000 years old

There are hundreds of cities over 1000 years old

Assumptions for the Assumptions for the FutureFuture

Humans will be here

Current cities will be here

Food will still be grown

Materials and energy will still be required

Human basic needs will not have changed

1000 year Framework 1000 year Framework

Physical characteristics which define the limitations of the land Geology Topography Hydrology Climate Soil structure, quality, depth, regeneration Plate tectonics/seismology Proximity to coast

ConstraintsConstraintsOnce we recognise the limits, this imposes

some constraints or considerations on resource use

For example, availability of water will constrain population, industry and agriculture

While water can be brought in, it results in an economic and energy cost

This places a burden on future generations

TimeframesTimeframes

The timeframes for management of resources needs to be identified

While some aspects must be managed on an annual basis, others must consider longer timeframes

Short, medium and long term aspects must be taken into account

TimeframeYears Water Soil Land Food1 Annual rainfall,

flooding, runoff,pollution

Erosion, nutrientlevel, organiccontent, pollution

Management of existingland use

Annual production,cash/food crop,pest prevention

5-10 Storage, groundwatercontamination

Heavy metalaccumulation, soilhealth

Residential/commercial/industrial development

Crop rotations,disease and pestmanagement

10-50 Climate Salinisation,compaction,desertification, soilhealth

Urban/ruraldevelopment

Climate suitabilityfor crops,production energyrequirements

50-100 Recharge ofundergroundstorage systems

Gradual soil loss,soil health

Floodplaindevelopment,volcanic/seismicactivity

Long term cropmanagement

100-500 Climate changes;effects onmax/min rainfall

Soil loss, soilhealth

Infrastructure Species diversity,social stability

1000 Local supply fordrinking,sanitation, foodproduction,ecosystemsupport

Soil abundance,health

Transportationcorridors, developmentareas

Long term localproduction ofminimum supplyfor local population

Risk Based Future Risk Based Future ThinkingThinking

How resources are managed affects the risk for future generations

Risk includes environmental, social and economic factors and is the cumulative probability of system failure over time

Risk can then be reduced through long term planning and management

System failure can be assumed when the system’s limits are exceeded

SustainabilitySustainability

Thus the sustainability (S) over time is

ST = 1-(RT)

With RT = p(C>L | t = T)

RT = Risk over time T

L = System limit

C = Consequences

p = Probability

Systems Sustainability - Systems Sustainability - Physical/ChemicalPhysical/Chemical

Includes hydrological, carbon, nutrient cycles, erosion, climate, energy systems, soil and rock formation

Operate on variety of timeframes and cycles which are interlinked

Climate change modelling has shown how complex the linkages between physical/chemical cycles are

Systems Sustainability - Systems Sustainability - EnvironmentalEnvironmental

Environmental systems are constantly changing due to both internal and external fluctuations

Some systems are 400-1200 years old usually characterised by: little growth of the dominant large species infrequent disturbances adequate land to buffer disturbances high biodiversity may provide resilience

Systems Sustainability - Systems Sustainability - EnvironmentalEnvironmental

The ability of an environmental system to withstand change depends on its resilience, vigour and diversity

Positive feedbacks amplify changes

Negative feedbacks provide major controls

Ecosystems however are complex, chaotic interactions of both negative and positive feedbacks

Systems Sustainability -Systems Sustainability -SocialSocial

Human societies are highly varied

All are dependant on extraction of resources from environmental, physical and chemical systems

None provide a perfect example of effective government, economic distribution or equality

Systems Sustainability -Systems Sustainability -SocialSocial

Tainter analysed the collapse of past societies and found four basic concepts: Human societies are problem-solving

organisations; Sociopolitical systems require energy for their

maintenance; Increased complexity carries with it increased

costs per capita; and Investment as a problem-solving response

reaches a point of declining marginal returns

Systems Sustainability -Systems Sustainability -Social/EconomicSocial/Economic

Declining marginal returns can be seen in agriculture, mineral and energy production, education, health, management and productivity

As natural capital is depleted and ecosystems are degraded, the options available for recovering from change or disaster are reduced as only technical solutions will be available

Systems Sustainability -Systems Sustainability -Social/EconomicSocial/Economic

To be sustainable the overall balance of activities within a society must ensure that maintenance, replacement and renewal equals or exceeds the processes of depreciation, degradation and loss

Sustainable products and services do not result in a sustainable society

Sustainability and RiskSustainability and Risk

Risk to current and future generations is increased when the solutions are: relatively new and untested complex reliant on resources which are in low supply reliant on systems which are controlled by

those who have other agendas

ConclusionsConclusions

A 1000 year scenario does not mean that change should not occur

It does mean that the limits posed by physical, chemical and environmental systems need to be understood and the risks of breaching those limits must be clarified

ConclusionsConclusions

Both scientists and engineers have to identify the limits and risks of human activities

Paradigm shifts in economic thinking, technology design and what constitutes quality of life are needed

Recognising that societies will be here in 1000 years will help plan for that future

“…what now remains compared with what then existed is like the skeleton of a sick man, all the fat and soft earth having wasted away, and only the bare framework of the land being left…”

Plato writing about Attica, 2,400 years ago