"Complex project – or poorly scoped?"

Dr Liz Varga liz.varga@cranfield.ac.uk 28th Nov 2013APM - a PMC SIG conversation

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Objectives

Present my definition of a complex project and when simple projects work

Demonstrate what has changed to make projects complex

Describe the consequences of complex projects Explain how complexity science might help

identify the causes of complexity Suggest interventions to embrace complexity

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A Complex Project

A simple project is one where no change arises in the project scope, its plan, its delivery, in the environment, and in the intended project outcomes. A complex project is otherwise.

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A simple project

Relies on negative feedback which will maintain the status quo Regulation Approval Monitoring Budget control …

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How have projects stayed the same? Deliverables and work packages Schedules and dependencies Risks and Issues Change Control

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How have projects changed? Scale and multi-disciplinary scope

different and more: skills and capacity

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How have projects changed? Resource management

competing priorities

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How have projects changed? Stakeholder management

transparency and influence

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How have projects changed? Rapid context change (political, economic,

social, technological, environmental) Creating challenge to deliver initial objectives

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How have projects changed? Integrated systems

Overlapping decision-support tools and dependency; information overload

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Outcomes of these changes: Loss of control and ambiguity

Networked system with inter-dependencies and autonomy

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Outcomes of these changes: Loss of purpose

Changing environment creates demands for new objectives, project pace and objectives change

Exogenous events can and do have impact (HBR, 2011, Learning to live with complexity)

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Outcomes of these changes: Predicted outcomes fail to materialize

Basis of business cases is ‘ceteris paribus’ but inter-connections and innovations lead to non-linearities

The vital thing to know about the great monetary experiments began in 2008 – now underway in Japan, Europe, and America — is that these are experiments. There are no clear precedents, and certainly no successful precedents. Even the conditions are unique: stratospheric debt levels (both public and private) — aging populations — and a global financial system like nothing before.

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Causes of complexity

Socio-economic systems are open Projects ‘meddle’ with the dynamic structures

which are in place: during planning, construction, delivery and operation

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Addressing complexity:Don’t be surprised Inter-connectivity gives rise to multiple

feedback loops which create emergent, non-linear outcomes.

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Addressing complexity:Collaborate Globalization is just another system!

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Addressing complexity:Resources are limited Recognize limited resources: re-use, share,

etc.

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Addressing complexity:Expect to change Objectives, scope, outcomes need continuous re-

evaluation because the effects of non-linearities can’t be accurately predicted

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Addressing complexity:Innovate Be diverse, innovate and take opportunities:

importance of knowledge and learning and creating a vision of the future

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Addressing complexity – plan for survival

Principle DescriptionInterdependence All members of an ecological community are connected

in a vast and intricate network of relationships, the web of life via multiple feedback loops that create non-linear patterns of response

Cyclical Flow of Resources Nutrients are recycled so that the waste of one species becomes food for another, or conversely, the outputs of one market-driven entity may threaten the survival of another

Partnership and Cooperation In co-evolution in which the adaptations of multiple species are mutually interdependent

Flexibility Continual adjustment to feedback in response to constantly changing conditions

Diversity Involving pluralistic resilience in the sense that a “diverse ecosystem” tends to contain “many species with overlapping ecological functions that can partially replace one another”.

"Complex project - or poorly scoped?"

Dr Liz Varga liz.varga@cranfield.ac.uk 28th Nov 2013APM - a PMC SIG conversation