COMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATION IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COP 10,...
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Transcript of COMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATION IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COP 10,...
COMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATIONCOMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATION
IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL
RESEARCH RESEARCH
www.ipam.org.brwww.ipam.org.br
COP 10, Buenos AiresCOP 10, Buenos Aires
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Socioambiental Institute, Brazil
Center for Meteorology and Climate Studies, Brazil
Environmental Defense, USA
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, USA
Presented by
Marcio Santilli (IPAM; ISA)
Global CO2 EmissionsGlobal CO2 EmissionsD
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Global C Emission: ~75% Fossil Fuel ~25% Land Deforestation
Global CO2 EmissionsGlobal CO2 EmissionsD
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THE CASE OF BRAZILIAN THE CASE OF BRAZILIAN AMAZONIAAMAZONIA
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Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia 2003Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia 2003
Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.
DeforestationDeforestation 2002/20032002/2003
Deforestation until 2002Deforestation until 2002
60 millions ha deforested
16% of Brazilian Amazonia
Amazon Basin
5.3 million km2
1/3 world’s remaining tropical forest
30 % world’s flora and fauna
Deforestation: Yellow Deforestation: Yellow
Non-Forest: GrayNon-Forest: Gray
Blank areas : not availableBlank areas : not available imageimage
Deforestation in Deforestation in
Rondonia StateRondonia State
1986: ~2.8 1986: ~2.8 millions hamillions ha
Main RoadMain Road
Deforestation: Yellow Deforestation: Yellow
Non-Forest: GrayNon-Forest: Gray
Blank areas: not availableBlank areas: not available imageimage
Deforestation in Deforestation in
Rondonia StateRondonia State
1992: ~3.6 1992: ~3.6 millions hamillions ha
Deforestation: Yellow Deforestation: Yellow
Non-Forest: GrayNon-Forest: Gray
Blank areas : not processed Blank areas : not processed imageimage
Deforestation in Deforestation in
Rondonia StateRondonia State
1996: ~ 4.8 1996: ~ 4.8 millions hamillions ha
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Brazil Indonesia
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Deforestation in the FutureDeforestation in the Future
Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.
DeforestationDeforestation 2002/20032002/2003
Deforestation until 2002Deforestation until 2002
Business-as-usual
Forest Fire Emission: 0.2 PgC
Deforestation and Logging
Evapotranspiration Reduction
RAIN REDUCTION
Forest Flammability Increase
Forest Fire Increase
EL NIÑO
Investments on infra-structure
Global Warming
CO
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The control of deforestation The control of deforestation to obtain compensationto obtain compensation
Is it possible to control deforestation?Is it possible to control deforestation?If yes, how?If yes, how?
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Examples of How to Control Deforestation? Examples of How to Control Deforestation?
The Case of Mato Grosso StateThe Case of Mato Grosso State
• Environmental Control System on Rural Properties Environmental Control System on Rural Properties (Program of License and Control Deforestation)(Program of License and Control Deforestation)
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New Approach
1. Focus on large properties (>500 ha) in critical areas;
2. Obligation for registry of properties
3. Emphasis on environmental assets
4. Use of information technology
5. Simplified licensing
Examples of How to Control Deforestation? Examples of How to Control Deforestation? D
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Obligation for registry of properties: the owners must present details about their property informing their
identification and address before to receive the registry
Results (2000-2001):
• 25% Reduction of deforestation compared to the deforestation trends of other states and to the last years
• Emission reduced 36 MTC
Source: Fearnside & Barbosa (2003): World Resource
Review
GDP Growth: 8%/yr
Cost of Program (US$ 3 million/yr (1999-2000)
Examples of How to Control Deforestation? Examples of How to Control Deforestation? The National Program to Control DeforestationThe National Program to Control Deforestation
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New Approach
1. The Control Program is under responsibility of 12 ministries;
2. Unrestricted availability of deforestation data to society
3. Deforestation in public forest became environmental crime
4. Deforestation monitoring in real time
5. Emphasis on land tenure and illegal appropriation of public land
Estimated Cost of Program (~US$ 130 millions 2004-2007)
Deforestation monitoring in real time
Deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/204
Modis Image 07/May/2004
Deforestation 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/2004
Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) +
deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to
07/may/2004 (red)
Deforestation verified between 13/Aug/2003 e
21/May/2004
Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) +
deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to
07/May/2004 (red) + deforestation in
21/May/2004 (orange)
Modis Mosaic 21/May/2004
Deforestation verified between 21/May/2004 and
08/Jun/2004
Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) +
deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to
07/May/2004 (red) + deforestation from
21/May/2004 (orange) + deforestation in
08/Jun/2004 (blue)
Modis Mosaic 21/May/2004
ATUALIZATION : fifteen days later
BRAZILINAN INITIATIVES RELATED TO CLIMATE BRAZILINAN INITIATIVES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE
• PROÁLCOOL (20% of methanol added to gasoline)PROÁLCOOL (20% of methanol added to gasoline)
• Flexpower cars (use any combination of methanol and gasoline)Flexpower cars (use any combination of methanol and gasoline)
• PROINFA (Program for renewable energy: from 3,1% of total PROINFA (Program for renewable energy: from 3,1% of total 2004 to 5,9% in 2006). 2004 to 5,9% in 2006).
BIODIESEL (PROGRAM OF VEGETAL FUEL BIODIESEL (PROGRAM OF VEGETAL FUEL PRODUCTION)PRODUCTION)
•PROAMBIENTE (ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS FOR PROAMBIENTE (ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS FOR FARMERS) FARMERS)
• PROARCO (FIRE PREVENTION IN AMAZONIA)PROARCO (FIRE PREVENTION IN AMAZONIA)
• PROTEGER/GTAPROTEGER/GTA
• NATIONAL PROGRAM TO CONTROL AMAZONIAN NATIONAL PROGRAM TO CONTROL AMAZONIAN DEFORESTATION DEFORESTATION
• NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR FORESTRYNATIONAL PROGRAM FOR FORESTRY
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2050 Business as Usual Scenario:Deforested 2,698,735 km2 (16 PgC release by 2050)Forest 3,320,409 km2
Non-forest 1,497,685 km2
500 km Soares-Filho et al. 2004
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2050 Governance Scenario:Deforested 1,655,734 km2 (Reduction: 40%)Forest 4,363,410 km2
Non-forest 1,497,685 km2
500 km
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Tropical Forest and Climate ChangeTropical Forest and Climate ChangeD
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Under the Protocol at present …
• forests treated as “sinks” – native forests seen as insignificant to the stability of the climate system
and confused with tree plantations.
• developing countries have no incentives to reduce or avoid emissions from deforestation (25% of
global GHG emissions)
• Tropical forests are not considered, but northern forests (Article 3.3) and plantations (CDM) are
credited
• HOW TO ADDRESS EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTION?
Compensated Reduction of DeforestationCompensated Reduction of DeforestationD
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Concept for non-project based reduction of tropical deforestation emissions
1. Baseline derived from average annual deforestation for 1980’s (using satellite imagery) for tropical countries.
2. Tropical countries that elect to reduce their national emissions from deforestation below baseline during a commitment period,
and demonstrate success, authorized to issue “carbon certificates” post facto (IPCC could establish common criteria for baselines and equivalence
between deforestation and carbon stocks).
3. These countries agree not to increase (or to further reduce) deforestation in subsequent commitment periods.
4. Baseline revised after 20yrs.
5. Only a portion of the certificates might be valid for offsets in first period. Others could be valid for second and subsequent
commitment periods.
Compensated Reduction of DeforestationCompensated Reduction of Deforestation
Source: INPE 2003
* Decade mean
** Biennium mean
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000Baseline: 20.000 km2 Reduction of
Deforestation
% reduction of deforestation = ~ 5%
Avoided Emission: mean of 12 Million Tons C/yr
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Photo by Patrick McFeeley
Thank you Thank you !!