Commodity Monitor Monthly Nov2011

Markets performance Units Nov-2011 % chg

(MoM) % chg

(Year to date)

Vegetable oils SBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 49.27 -3.71% -14.67% CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,018.00 2.72% -20.33% RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,075.00 5.65% -14.17% SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,111.00 -2.88% -12.52% Sunoil, Ex NWE € /T 1,180.00 -6.35% -20.81% Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch € /T 935.00 0.00% -14.22% CPO, cif, Rotterdam € /T 1,035.00 1.22% -19.46% CSBO degummed, Ex NWE € /T 890.00 1.71% -13.84%

Softs and Plantations

Sugar 11 @ ICE USc /lb 23.69 -8.07% -26.25%

Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 267.40 -13.15% -35.49%

Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 2,162.00 -19.81% -28.76%

Coffee C @ ICE USc /lb 233.80 3.02% -2.79%

Tea, Best BP1, Kenya US$/Kg 2.90 -3.01% -22.46%

Energy and Metals

Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 100.36 7.69% 9.83%

Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,745.10 1.86% 22.94%

Silver spot US$ /oz 32.81 -3.95% 6.32%

Copper @ LME US$ /T 7,885.00 -1.31% -17.86%

Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,110.00 -4.87% -14.57%

Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,071.00 3.55% -15.61%

Indices

DJIA 12,045.70 0.76% 4.04%

FTSE 100 5,505.42 -0.70% -6.69%

Strait times 2,702.46 -5.37% -15.28%

S&P GSCI 658.02 1.55% 4.15%

Currencies

US Dollar Index 78.3840 2.91% -0.81%

GBP / USD 1.5694 -2.45% 0.61%

EUR / USD 1.3441 -3.00% 0.48%

USD / JPY 77.5000 -0.90% -4.50%

USD / SGD 1.2817 2.17% -0.06%

USD / MYR 3.1770 3.59% 3.08%

USD / BRL 1.8078 5.31% 8.95%

Monthly Commodity Markets Roundup

Nov 2011

Index

> Market performance

> Market perspectives

> Market visuals • Commodity fundamentals gauge

• Price seasonality

• Spreads Corner

• Traders positions vs. price

• Macroeconomic gauge

• Price charts - Agriculture

• Price charts - Energy

• Indices

• Currency

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Nov 2011

-1- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

Market Perspectives

Vegetable oils

Asset prices witnessed mixed fortunes in Nov as global investor sentiment oscillated between hope

and fear following the volatile macro economic conditions across the globe. Spreading liquidity crisis to

other parts of EU though had pressurized the markets early in the month; assurance from Central Bank

of leading economies on undertaking comprehensive measures propped up investor sentiment

towards the end. Positive updates on consumer sentiment, housing and employment from US also

extended underlying support.

In commodities, energy prices firmed up most on geopolitical issues. Grains posted marginal gains on

spillover support while softs continued to look down on weak EU sentiment. Cocoa declined the most

in commodities as traders are apprehensive about demand prospects from EU region amid the

increase in supplies from African region. Vegetable oil prices traded on either side before slumping in

the second fortnight on demand concerns. Although prices posted modest gains in the ensuing period

following the strong surge in global equity markets, prevailing risk on and off environment is weighing

on trader sentiment. Other than macro contagion risk factors, markets shall be focused on the

following discussed factors in the immediate front.

a) Expectations of lower palm oil production growth

Palm oil production is expected to slow down from the world’s top producing regions on seasonal and

biological factors. Palm oil production tends to remain low in Q4 and first two months of the calendar

year on account seasonal factors. The extent of decline in the current period is expected to be larger

coming under the influence of combination of factors like i) above average rainfall being experienced in

main producing regions, probably under the influence of La Nino related weather phenomena and ii)

biological cycle where in crop tends to enter low yielding cycle following a period of boom production.

Given these factors, the year on year increase in palm oil production for CY 2012 is expected at only 2

million tons vs. 4.12 million tons witnessed in the previous year (Fig-1).

Global annual increment of eight major vegetable oils averaged at around 5.5 million tons per annum

previously, and half of that increment is contributed by palm oil production increase alone. Any

contraction in palm oil production growth would leave significant impact on world vegetable oil

supplies and exportable surplus.

Fig-1: Global palm oil production and year on year

change.

Fig-2: Palm oil exports from Malaysia and

Indonesia

Source: MPOB, Reuters, Oilworld and Pacrim research

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

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20

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20

10

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11

20

12

F

wo

rld

pal

m o

il p

rod

tn, i

n m

ln.T

yoy

chg

pal

m o

il p

rod

tn,

in m

ln.t

yoy, Indonesia yoy chg, Malaysia

yoy chg, Others World palm oil prodtn

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar

-11

Ap

r-1

1

May

-11

Jun

-11

Jul-

11

Au

g-1

1

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

mo

nth

ly p

alm

oil

exp

ort

, '0

00

T

Indonesia Malaysia total



At the same time, palm oil exports from Indonesia and Malaysia have picked up in Oct on pent up

buying demand (Fig-2). Coupled with an expected decline in production, higher exports might reduce

the stocks and might be supportive for prices.

b) Dual impact of weak soy meal prices and low crush margin

A decline in soybean prices since Sep2011 did not help the crush margin to improve as product prices

(especially meal price) have declined at much faster rate there by weighing on crush margin. Ample

availability of DDG and high stocks of meal in China and in other places coupled with weak demand

continued to weigh on soymeal prices. Weak soymeal prices and low crush margin has dual

implications on industry; i) low crush margin for extendable period of time shall affect the crush

demand for soybean in China and other regions and hence the product availability ii) increase in oil

share in crush revenue as evident in the recent period. (Fig-4). Firm demand for soybean oil from

biodiesel segment in US, Brazil and Argentina on increased mandates could help oil prices to remain

supported vis-à-vis meal prices.

Fig-3: Soybean crush margin in US and China Fig-4: Soybean oil share in crush revenue, basis soy

complex futures traded at CBOT

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

Other factors

i) Soybean crop planting in Brazil and Argentina is progressing smoothly and is estimated to have been

finished on 86% and 56% of the projected acreage respectively. Given the current weather predictions,

Brazil is forecasted to harvest 75 to 75.5 million

tons of soybeans that was on par with previous

year record, while Argentina is forecast to

harvest 52 million tons, up 3 mln.T over

previous year. However, the upward trend in

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) needs to be

monitored closely. Sustained positive value of

SOI above +8 indicates a developing La Nina

weather pattern which might be detrimental

during crop growth period. As evident in Fig-5,

SOI has surged back above 10 recently after

declining for past two weeks. The same needs a

careful watch.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11

cru

sh m

arg

in in

US

$ p

er

T

margin in China, spot month continuation

margin in China, active month futures

crush margin in US, front month futures

low crush margin

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170180

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

Oil share in crush revenue (%) ==>

<== Crush margin in USc / bushel

SBOcrushrevshare (0.46632), soybncrushmargin (44.8738)

20

2530

3540

4550

5560

6570

20

2530

3540

4550

5560

6570Soybean oil @ CBOT, USc/lb

SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (49.6000, 50.0500, 49.5200, 50.0500, +0.53000)

Fig-5: 30 day moving average of SOI

Source: Bureau of Meterology, Australia



ii) Crude oil prices ruled firm in Nov despite an increase in OPEC supply as traders are focused on

escalating geopolitical tensions in Middle East region. UK joined Italy and France in supporting the

proposed EU import ban on Iranian crude oil as part of economic sanctions. Despite the prevailing

macroeconomic uncertainty and its impact on crude oil demand, cross boarder tensions shall add to

the price volatility.

iii) US dollar index, a trade weighted index of US dollar against six major currencies surged to four week

high of 79.70 before turning lower in Nov. Although index gained marginally after taking support over

78, the correction for the prior one month rally doesn’t appear complete and we could witness some

more weakness towards 77.50. But for the technical induced weakness, chart remains friendly from

the medium term perspective and is expected to trade positive as long as it trades above 76.50.

From the technical perspective, palm oil and bean oil price charts are presenting divergent views from

the medium term perspective. However in the immediate term both charts looks positive and much

would depend upon their ability to clear the near term resistances of MYR 3160 (Palm oil) and USc

52.80 (Bean oil) to extend those gains into medium term. Though financial contagion risks persist, the

impact of the same on palm oil appears limited in the current scenario.



Market Visuals

Commodities fundamental gauge: Global Palm oil Stocks to use vs. Price World Soybean oil Stocks to use vs. Price

World Soybean Stocks to use vs. Price World soybean meal stocks to use vs. price

World Corn Stocks to use vs. Price World Wheat Stocks to use vs. Price

World Sugar Stocks to use vs. Price World Cotton Stocks to use vs. Price

Source: USDA and Pacrim research

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1980/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 11/12

pri

ce

in M

YR

/ T

sto

cks to

use (%

)

all veg oil stocks to use Palmoil stocks to use

Annual avg price Price max

Price min

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 11/12

pri

ce

in U

Sc

/lb

sto

cks to

use (%

)

all veg oil stocks to use Soybn oil stocks to use

Annual avg price Price max

Price min

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 11/12

pri

ce in

US

c/b

ush

el

sto

cks to

use (%

)

Annual avg price Price max Price min

Stocks to use

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 11/12

pri

ce

in U

S$

pe

r s

ho

rt t

on

sto

cks to

use (%

)

stocks to use ratio Annual avg price

Price max Price min

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 11/12

pri

ce

in U

Sc

/ b

us

he

l

sto

ck

s t

o u

se

(%

)

Stocks to use Annual avg price

Price max Price min

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 11/12

pri

ce

in U

Sc

/ b

us

he

l

sto

ck

s t

o u

se

(%

)


Price max Price min

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 11/12

pri

ce

in U

Sc

/lb

sto

ck

s t

o u

se

(%

)


Price max Price min

20

70

120

170

220

270

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 11/12

pri

ce

in U

Sc

/lb

sto

ck

s t

o u

se

(%

)


Price max Price min



Price seasonality SBO at CBOT, price in USc /lb CPO at BMD, price in MYR/T

SB at CBOT, price in USc / bushel Corn at CBOT, price in USc /bushel

SBM at CBOT, price in USD / short ton Wheat at CBOT, price USc / bushel

Sugar at ICE, price in USc / lb RSS3 (Natural Rubber) at TOCOM, price in JPY / kg

Source: Pacrim research

day of year

valu

e

20

30

40

50

60

70

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

day of year

valu

e

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

day of year

valu

e

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

day of year

valu

e

200

300

400

500

600

700

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

day of year

valu

e

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

day of year

valu

e

400

600

800

1000

1200

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

day of year

valu

e

10

15

20

25

30

35

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

day of year

valu

e

200

300

400

500

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011



Spreads corner PME, SME and RME vs. ULSD SBO vs. RBD Olein

Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

Veg oils in Euro / T Brent crude premium over WTI, Brent @ICE vs. WTI @ NYMEX


Line, QULSD10-C-NWE

12/1/2011, 976.75

Line, QPME-CIFARA

11/25/2011, 1,106.00

Line, QSME-CIFARA

11/25/2011, 1,214.00

Line, QRME-FOBARA

11/25/2011, 1,406.00

Price

USD

T

.12

600

900

1,200

Spread, QPME-CIFARA

12/1/2011, 129.25

Spread, QSME-CIFARA

12/1/2011, 237.25

Spread, QRME-FOBARA

12/1/2011, 429.25

Value

USD

T

.12

0

200

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Spread, QSOIL-AR-P1, 12/1/2011, 77, EMA, Spread(QSOIL-AR-P1, QPALM-OLEIN-P2), 12/1/2011, 102

Value

USD

T

0

100

Line, QSOIL-AR-P1, 12/1/2011, 1,112, Line, QPALM-OLEIN-P2, 12/1/2011, 1,035

Price

USD

T

600

900

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 12/1/2011, 140, EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 12/1/2011, 109

Value

USD

T

-200

-100

0

100

Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 12/1/2011, 1,470, Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 12/1/2011, 1,330

Price

USD

T

500

1,000

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 12/1/2011, 290, SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 12/1/2011, 472

Value

USD

T

0

400

Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 12/1/2011, 1,330, Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 12/1/2011, 1,040

Price

USD

T

500

1,000

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

9/30/2007 - 2/26/2012 (GMT)

Line, 890.340, Line, 895.000, Line, 935.000, Line, 771.628 Price

EUR

T

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

890.34895935

771.628

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Spread, QLCOc1, 12/2/2011, 8.92, SMA, Spread(QLCOc1, QCLc1), 12/2/2011, 17.52

Value

USD

Bbl

-10

0

Line, QLCOc1, 12/2/2011, 109.82, Line, QCLc1, 12/2/2011, 100.90

Price

USD

Bbl

40

60

80

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012



Traders positions vs. Price Soybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT

Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX

Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX

Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE

Source: CFTC and Pacrim research

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-50

05

010

01

50

20

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

60

01

00

014

00

pri

ce, U

Sc/

bu

she

l

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40

020

40

60

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

30

40

50

60

price, U

Sc/

lb

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

05

01

00

15

02

00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

10

15

20

25

30

price, U

Sc/

lb

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

150

250

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

40

60

80

10

01

40

pri

ce, U

S$

/ba

rre

l

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

10

01

50

200

25

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

60

010

00

140

01

80

0pri

ce, U

SD

/ t.o

z

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-30

-10

01

02

03

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

15

025

03

50

450

price, U

Sc

/ lb

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

01

00

200

30

04

00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

200

40

060

0p

rice, U

Sc

/ bu

shel

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20

02

040

60

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

10

01

50

200

price, U

Sc

/ lb

'00

0 lots

Speculative Net

Close price,RHS



Macroeconomic gauge Unemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY

Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence

Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %

Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research

Germany

EUR

GBPUS

JPY

Line, (S1, S2), 6.900, Line, (S1, S2), 10.300, Line, (S1, S2), 9.000, Line, (S1, S2), 4.500, Line, (S1, S2), 8.300

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1990 2000 2010

US

JPY

GBP

Line, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 91.304, Line, (Base Year=2008)(S1, S2), 96.600, Line, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 92.800

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000 2010

China

USA

Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 10/1/2011, 1.017M, Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 9/1/2011, 1.646M

400,000

600,000

800,000

1M

1.2M

1.4M

1.6M

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000 2010

US Consumer confidence

ISM Mfg PMI

ISM services PMI

Line, (S1, S2), 52.900, Line, (S1, S2), 52.700, Line, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 56.000

36

40

44

48

52

56

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000 2010

US

GBP

JPY

EUR

INR

Line, (S1, S2), 10.375, Line, 3.250, Line, 1.400, Line, 1.250, Line, 0.500 Price

INR

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1990 2000 2010

INR

CNYGBP

EUR

USA

JPY

Line, (S1, S2), 9.392, Line, (S1, S2), 5.500, Line, (S1, S2), 5.500, Line, (S1, S2), 3.000, Line, (Base Year=2010)(S1, S2), -0.200, PctCng, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2),

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1990 2000 2010



Price charts - Agriculture CPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous

Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous

Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous

Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,91000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

15 EMA40 EMA 200 EMA

CPO BMD 3 month conti new (3,081.00, 3,104.00, 3,011.00, 3,058.00, -11.0000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70


SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (48.7100, 50.0100, 48.4400, 49.5200, +1.29000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700


SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,114.50, 1,146.00, 1,111.50, 1,128.00, +21.5000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (23.0000, 23.9500, 22.8900, 23.5900, +0.69000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550


RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (262.900, 285.700, 260.500, 280.800, +17.8000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800


CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (586.000, 609.750, 586.000, 594.750, +12.2500)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400


WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (578.500, 609.500, 572.500, 602.000, +27.5000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

50

100

150

200


COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (92.1000, 93.5000, 88.3900, 90.7000, -0.12000)



Price Charts – Energy and Metals

Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,

Gold, spot, monthly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.

Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T

Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150


LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (97.5000, 101.750, 97.1300, 100.200, +3.43000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (3.52900, 3.68900, 3.35100, 3.64800, +0.10600)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

200300

400500600

700800900

100011001200

130014001500

160017001800

19002000


gold (1,680.20, 1,754.00, 1,680.20, 1,744.39, +64.7600)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


silver (31.0600, 33.3800, 31.0300, 32.7400, +1.78000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500

1000010500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA

3MT COPPER USD (7,420.00, 7,965.00, 7,401.00, 7,790.00, +560.000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500


3MT ZINC DLR (1,934.00, 2,073.00, 1,929.00, 2,045.00, +135.000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500


3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,173.00, 2,173.00, 1,987.00, 2,145.00, +153.000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


3MT LEAD DLR (2,030.00, 2,115.00, 2,010.00, 2,105.00, +101.000)



Indices, weekly charts

DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US

FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore

Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India

S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500


Dow Jones INDU AVERAGE NDX (11,232.50, 12,062.60, 11,232.20, 12,020.00, +788.200)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA

S&P 500 NDX (1,158.67, 1,251.09, 1,158.67, 1,244.58, +85.9099)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500


FTSE 100 INDEX (5,164.65, 5,553.89, 5,164.65, 5,489.34, +324.690)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (2,675.06, 2,779.66, 2,672.22, 2,761.88, +117.950)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000


SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,383.89, 2,423.56, 2,319.44, 2,386.86, +6.64014)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

5000

10000

15000

20000


BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (17,806.20, 17,813.10, 17,337.70, 17,464.80, -340.000)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900


S&P GSCI INDEX (644.350, 664.560, 639.990, 654.444, +18.3240)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

510

1520

2530

3540

45

5055

6065

7075

8085

9095


Volatility Index (31.9300, 33.1100, 26.6400, 27.4100, -7.06000)



Currencies, weekly charts US Dollar Index spot GBP / USD

EUR / USD USD / JPY

USD / SGD USD / MYR

USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


US DOLLAR INDEX (79.2120, 79.4010, 77.9230, 78.3280, -1.35799)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,91.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15


UK pound sterling (1.54780, 1.57790, 1.54560, 1.56930, +0.02460)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60


EuroDollar (1.33170, 1.35310, 1.32570, 1.34630, +0.02300)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125


Japanese yen (77.5600, 78.2700, 77.2800, 77.7400, +0.00999)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80


Singapore dollar (1.30480, 1.30810, 1.27810, 1.28190, -0.03110)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

Stoc,9

2.902.953.003.053.103.153.203.253.303.353.403.453.503.553.603.653.703.753.803.85


Malaysian ringgit (3.19500, 3.19500, 3.13450, 3.13800, -0.05700)

Line, QUS10YT=RR, 12/4/2011, 2.0890, SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 12/4/2011, 2.6936

Yield

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 12/4/2011, 44.211, 45.367

Value

0

30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000 2010

Line, QEU10YT=RR, 12/4/2011, 2.170, SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 12/4/2011, 2.617

Yield

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 12/4/2011, 73.267, 58.359

Value

0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000 2010



Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sources

we believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility

or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as

a recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.

Commodity Monitor Monthly Nov2011

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Transcript of Commodity Monitor Monthly Nov2011