Commodity Monitor Monthly Apr2011

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    Markets performanceUnits Apr-2011 % chg

    (MoM)% chg

    (Year todate)

    Vegetable oilsSBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 58.13 -1.11% 0.68%CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,270.00 -1.68% -13.67%RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,197.50 1.91% -4.39%SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,209.00 -2.97% -4.80%Sunoil, Ex NWE /T 1,400.00 2.19% -6.04%Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch /T 975.00 -4.88% -10.55%CPO, cif, Rotterdam /T 1,142.50 -1.51% -11.09%CSBO degummed, Ex NWE /T 862.00 -9.26% -16.55%

    Softs and Plantations

    Sugar 11 @ ICE USc /lb 23.38 -13.76% -27.21%

    Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 389.10 -9.97% -6.13%

    Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 3,390.00 14.84% 11.70%

    Coffee C @ ICE USc /lb 299.35 13.33% 24.47%Tea, Best BP1, Kenya US$/Kg 3.40 0.00% -9.09%

    Energy and Metals

    Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 113.93 6.76% 24.68%

    Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,563.60 9.34% 10.16%

    Silver spot US$ /oz 47.95 27.53% 55.38%

    Copper @ LME US$ /T 9,320.00 -1.15% -2.92%

    Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,767.50 4.51% 12.04%

    Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,247.00 -4.87% -8.44%

    Indices

    DJIA 12,810.50 3.98% 10.65%

    FTSE 100 6,069.90 2.73% 2.88%

    Strait times 3,179.86 2.38% -0.32%

    S&P GSCI 758.80 4.57% 20.09%

    Currencies

    US Dollar Index 72.9330 -3.85% -7.71%

    GBP / USD 1.6701 4.18% 7.06%

    EUR / USD 1.4799 4.48% 10.63%

    USD / JPY 81.2100 -2.33% 0.07%

    USD / SGD 1.2239 -2.89% -4.57%

    USD / MYR 2.9610 -2.12% -3.93%

    USD / BRL 1.5765 -3.37% -4.99%

    nthly Commodity Markets Roundup

    r 2011

    Index

    > Market performance

    > Analysis Oil and oilseeds Natural Rubber

    > Market visuals Commodity fundamentals gauge Price seasonality Price charts - Agriculture Price charts - Energy

    Indices Currency Macroeconomic gauge Traders positions vs. price Spreads Corner

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    Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2011

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    Table-1: Global Oilseed Production, in million tons2009/10 2010/11 YoY Apr over Jan

    Jan est . Apr est. chg (%) chg in %

    Soybean 260.2 255.5 261.0 0.3% 2.1%Rapeseed 60.6 58.3 58.6 -3.4% 0.4%

    Cottonseed 39.2 43.5 43.2 10.1% -0.8%

    Peanut 33.0 34.1 34.7 5.2% 1.7%

    Sunflowerseed 30.5 30.1 30.9 1.6% 2.8%

    Palm Kernel 12.2 12.8 12.7 4.2% -0.4%Total 441.6 440.4 447.0 1.2% 1.5%

    Declining soybean crush margin in US and China

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    4060

    80

    Jan-

    06

    Jul-

    06

    Jan-

    07

    Jul-

    07

    Jan-

    08

    Jul-

    08

    Jan-

    09

    Jul-

    09

    Jan-

    10

    Jul-

    10

    Jan-

    11

    crushmargininUS$per

    T

    margin in China, active month futures

    margin in China, spot month continuation

    crush margin in US

    Fig-3Source: Reuters andPacrim research

    Analysis

    Oil and oilseeds: Key market drivers in the short to medium term

    Vegetable oils yr 2010/11 balance sheet remains tight

    Global oilseed production for the year 2010/11 is estimated at 446.97 million tons. Global demand is

    projected at 443.07 million tons during the same

    period. Increase in soybean production from

    South America and other origins helped to easethe initially anticipated supply squeeze (Table-1).

    Global oilseed ending stocks are currently

    estimated at 70.57 million tons, which was on

    par with previous year stock level.

    However, the supply tightness persists in vegetable oil markets. World production of eight major

    vegetable oils in 2010/11 is currently expected at 145.95 million tons, up 4.2% year on year while the

    consumption is expected at 146.43 million tons, up 6.08% year on year. Year ending stocks are

    expected at 9.38 million tons, sharply lower by 25% from previous year. In relative terms, the stocks

    account for 6.41% of the projected use vs. 9.07% in the year 2009/10. However, market has factored in

    the current year stock tightness and is on look out for hints on next marketing year supply and demandbalance scenario.

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    2005/06 08/09 10-11/Oct 10-11/Jan 10-11/Apr

    qtyinmilliontons

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    (%)

    Production Consumption

    S/D (%), RHS stocks to consumption ratio, RHS

    Global vegetable oil production, consumption and stock to

    use ratio annual trend

    Source: USDA and Pacrim research Fig-1

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    20%

    1980-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 2000-01 05-06 10-11

    stockstouseratio

    Oilseed

    Vegetable oil

    Meal

    Global oilseeds and vegetable oil stocks to use ratio

    trends

    Source: USDA and Pacrim research Fig-2

    Notwithstanding the support from tight carry forward balance sheet, slowing demand as explained

    below and fund activities shall dominate the scenario in the immediate front till a clear perspective on

    MY2011-12 supply / demand balance emerges.

    Slowing demand amid weak crush margins

    Soybean crush margins in China that were

    in uptrend till Jan2011 have turned lower as

    evident in Fig-3. This has impacted thecrushing pace and lowered the import

    demand from China. The crush margin has

    recovered marginally in the past two weeks

    following the recent correction in soybean

    prices and relatively higher product prices,

    however still farther away from being

    sufficiently attractive to restore the

    demand.

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    Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2011

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    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    170

    180

    Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

    monthlysoybeancrush,inmb

    5 yr min

    5 yr max

    2009-10

    2010-11

    5 year average

    Source: US census and Pacrim research

    US monthly soybean crush, in mill ion bushels

    Fig-4

    3.83.93.9

    4.2

    3.6 3.6

    Production Exports2009 2010 2011

    Malaysian Palm oil production and exports

    (Jan-Mar total, in mln.Tons)

    Source: MPOB and Pacrim research

    Fig-5

    US soybean accumulated export shipments have reached 36.14 million tons and accounted for 84% of

    the projected marketing year exports (43 million tons), less than the previous year same period level of

    86.2%. Further, the outstanding sales (export sales not yet shipped) in current market year stood high

    at 4.92 million tons vs. 1.87 million tons outstanding at this point of time in the previous year. High

    outstanding sales highlight the underlying risk of shipment cancellations which is already evident from

    the recent talks of cancellations from China.

    At the domestic consumption front, US soybean crush has accumulated to 1014.54 million bushels til

    Mar2011 in the current MY (Sep-Aug) and

    need to average 127.1 mb per month in the

    remaining five month period to achieve the

    projected marketing year crush of 1650 mb.

    The soybean crush that begun at above

    average pace in the current marketing year

    has lost momentum in the first quarter of CY

    2011. US soybean oil stocks are hovering at

    3.4 billion lbs (1.54 million tons) and were

    marginally below the decade high of 3.55

    billion lbs. Although slowing down crush pacemight help trim the stocks amid the

    expectation of increased consumption

    demand in the coming period, the impact of the same on prices could be subdued till the current

    scenario of profit booking liquidation by funds turns around.

    Soybean harvest in South America

    Soybean harvest reached 95% in Brazil and about 64.1% of the crop was harvested in Argentina for the

    week ending Apr 29, 2011. The soybean production in these two nations is currently anticipated at

    around 72 million tons and 49.5 million tons respectively, with possibility of further upside revision

    following the higher yields realized in the late harvests.

    Palm oil production revival in Malaysia and Indonesia and export demand

    The Malaysian palm oil production is recovering from year 2010 LaNina impact. The production in Mar

    2011 increased by over 29% over previous month (+2% year on year) and production in the first

    quarter of the current calendar year

    accumulated to 3.56 million tons compared to

    same period previous year production of 3.86

    million tons.

    Amid the signs of higher biological yields and

    production recovery, the global palm oilproduction is projected to reach 48.6 million

    tons in CY 2011, a quantum jump of 3 million

    tons year on year compared to just 0.5 million

    tons increment witnessed in CY 2010.

    Production in Indonesia is currently projected

    at 23.8 million tons for CY 2011, up 1.8 million

    tons year on year while Malaysian palm oil production is forecasted at 17.8 million tons, up by 0.8

    million tons over previous year.

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    Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2011

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    Mean while; demand rationing has kicked in in the first quarter amid high prices as evident from the

    lack luster performance of Malaysian palm oil exports. Palm oil exports in the first quarter fell by 14%

    year on year to 3.567 million tons, as majority of the buyers from India and China remained sidelined

    waiting for prices to correct from multi month highs. This has resulted in stocks rise to 1.61 million tons

    by end Mar2011 from the Jan2011 low of 1.41 million tons.

    The recovery in palm oil import demand from major destinations like India, China and EU shall be

    important amid the increasing signs of strong seasonal rebound in palm oil production. The steep

    discount of palm oil against soy oil (Ref Spreads in charts section) is in favor of palm oil from the

    demand perspective. Though prices could find support near the lower end of the price range on

    expectations of pent up demand, ability to push through the crucial resistances shall await concrete

    evidence of increase in demand.

    Lateral factors to monitor

    i) Volatile crude oil prices amid the persistent geopolitical disturbances in MENA region

    ii) Resurfacing EU sovereign debt crisis and macro economic stability

    iii) US dollar index: The index slipped below 73 this month and seems to be stabilizing around that leve

    as evident by a series of doji candles in the past few trading sessions. Although a technical bouncecould be expected following the deeply oversold momentum indicators on daily and weekly

    timeframes, a sustained move above 75.5 levels is needed to over come the near term bearish

    pressures.

    iv) Profit booking liquidation by funds. The latest CFTC data shows that net long position of speculative

    funds was considerably reduced in various commodities (Refer Trader positions in Charts section) and

    the same needs to be observed in the following period.

    Natural Rubber

    Natural Rubber production expected to grow by 5.8% in CY 2011

    Natural rubber production for the calendar year 2011 is projected at 10.025 million tons, up 5.8% year

    on year facilitated by an expansion in the area and improvement in the productivity. The top two

    producers; Thailand and Indonesia are expected to contribute for majority of the production increment

    followed by others (Table-2).

    Production growth could have been higher but for the unseasonal rains in Mar/Apr period in Thailand

    and Malaysia and its impact on production. The production growth in the ensuing months will be

    crucial as NR enters into higher production months post May onwards as per the production

    seasonality (Fig-6). The production in the second quarter is projected to increase to 2303 TMT, up

    10.5% year on year compared to first quarter aggregate of 2265 TMT.

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    Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2011

    -4- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

    Table-2: Natural Rubber Production in CY 2011

    2009 2010 2011 % chg

    Tapped Area

    in '000 ha

    6777 6991 7174

    2.6%

    Yield, Kgs /

    ha

    1314 1355 13973.1%

    Production,

    '000 MT

    8905 9473 100255.8%

    Thailand 3164 3252 3375 3.8%

    Indonesia 2440 2736 2972 8.6%

    Malaysia 857 939 975 3.8% India 820 851 902 6.0%

    Vietnam 711 755 780 3.3% China 643 647 685 5.9%

    Sri Lanka 136.9 153 159 3.9% Philippines 97.7 98.8 113.5 14.9% Cambodia 34.5 42.2 63.3 50.0%

    NR production seasonality,

    (% of month prodtn to annual total, average of yr 2008 and 2009)

    02

    468

    1012

    141618

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug S ep Oc t Nov Decmonthp

    rodtnas%

    to

    annualtotal

    China India Indones ia Malay sia Thailand V ietnam

    Fig-6Source: ANRPC and Pacrim research

    Consumption growth in yr 2011

    Natural Rubber demand increased at marginal pace in first quarter as evident from the slower export

    growth from leading exporters. The cumulative exports from world major exporters, who account for

    more than 92% of global exports, is estimated at 1854 TMT in the first quarter of current year,

    marginally up by 0.5% over previous year.

    The performance of automobile segment, which account for more than 50% of natural rubber

    consumption, was mixed by the end of first quarter

    (Table-3). The natural disaster that hit Japan in

    Mar2011 has reduced its domestic automobile

    production and sales by more than 50% and severely

    disrupted the global automobile supply chain. It is

    expected that it would be a while before the

    production is restored to the normal pace and hencemight impact the natural rubber consumption growth

    in the coming period. The other important factors to

    influence the global automobile industry and hence

    the rubber consumption are the credit tightening

    measures in China and the resurfacing sovereign debt

    problems in EU.

    Much would depend upon the growth of natural rubber consumption in the current year amid these

    mixed signals. At 4.5% year on year growth (vs. 8.62% in the previous year) the global natural rubber

    consumption would amount to 10.66 million tons in the current calendar year, marginally below the

    projected global natural rubber production of 10.74 million tons. The surplus shall help increasing the

    year ending stocks to 1.73 million tons from the previous year level of 1.64 million tons. In relative

    terms, the stocks account for 1.94 months of use vs. 1.93 in the previous year. Although the expected

    increase in supplies coupled with ongoing fund liquidation might pressurize the prices in the immediate

    front, underlying tightness and increase in collective bargaining power of major producing countries

    shall extend the underlying support to prices near lower price ranges.

    Table-3: Automobile sales for the period Jan-Mar in year 2011 vs. year 2009 in majorcountries. Sales in mln. units.

    2011 2010 %change

    China(Jan/Feb) 3.16 2.88 9.9%US (Light

    vehicle sales) 3.06 2.55 20.2%EU-27 (Newcarregistrations) 3.58 3.67 -2.3%

    Japan 1.08 1.33 -18.5%

    Source: JAMA, CAAM, Reuters, ACEA and Pacrim research

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    Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2011

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    Table-4: Natural Rubber balance sheet, qty in million tons.1991 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011F

    Production 5.16 6.04 6.76 8.90 9.62 10.23 10.74

    Consumption 5.09 6.00 7.34 9.20 9.39 10.20 10.66Production deficit/surplus 0.07 0.04 -0.58 -0.30 0.23 0.03 0.08

    Ending stocks 2.38 2.45 2.18 1.75 1.61 1.64 1.73Stocks to use ratio 46.8% 40.8% 29.7% 19.0% 17.2% 16.1% 16.2%

    Stocks in months to use 5.61 4.90 3.57 2.29 2.06 1.93 1.94

    Source: Pacrim research

    Currency impact

    Besides the underlying supply and demand

    forces, the currency factor should also be

    monitored in the coming period. The currencies

    of major producers cum exporters viz.

    Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have

    appreciated against the US dollar (Fig-7) andthe same shall be supportive to prices as

    exporters forced to increase their offers to

    compensate for the loss in export earnings. Any

    further appreciation (or weak US dollar) shall

    be supportive to the prices.

    A short term technical bounce is also on the cards aftermath to the recent price slide. However

    concrete evidence of demand recovery should accompany for the expected corrective bounce to

    sustain.

    Fig-7: Appreciating currencies of major NR

    exporters vs. NR price.

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201

    30

    40

    50USDTHB

    5000

    10000

    15000USDIDR

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5USDMYR

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6RSS3, FOB, BKK, US$/kg

    RSS3 BKK US$kg (5.55816, 5.55816, 5.55816, 5.55816, -0.06328)

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    Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2011

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    Price seasonalitySBO at CBOT, price in USc /lb CPO at BMD, price in MYR/T

    day of year

    value

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    day of year

    value

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    2007

    20082009

    2010

    2011

    SB at CBOT, price in USc / bushel Corn at CBOT, price in USc /bushel

    day of year

    value

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    day of year

    value

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    SBM at CBOT, price in USD / short ton Wheat at CBOT, price USc / bushel

    day of year

    valu

    e

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    day of year

    valu

    e

    400

    600

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    1200

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    Sugar at ICE, price in USc / lb RSS3 (Natural Rubber) at TOCOM, price in JPY / kg

    day of year

    valu

    e

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    20072008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    day of year

    valu

    e

    200

    300

    400

    500

    50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    year

    2005

    2006

    20072008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    Source: Pacrim research

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    Price charts - AgricultureCPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201

    50

    Stoc,9

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    Palm oil continous 3 month cumulative vol (3,290.00, 3,305.00, 3,271.00, 3,271.00, +1.00000)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201

    50

    Stoc,9

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    65

    70

    75

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (58.0600, 58.6000, 57.1200, 57.2700, -0.86000)

    Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1100

    1200

    1300

    1400

    1500

    1600

    1700

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,389.50, 1,400.00, 1,352.00, 1,359.25, -33.5000)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (22.1900, 22.4300, 21.4500, 22.0500, -1.33000)

    Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    50

    100

    150

    200250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (388.400, 390.500, 374.600, 386.800, -2.30002)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (752.750, 757.750, 716.000, 719.000, -35.0000)

    Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1100

    1200

    1300

    1400

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (772.000, 793.000, 748 .250, 760.750, -8.50000)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    50

    100

    150

    200

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (178.050, 180.230, 172.790, 179.210, +0.43001)

    Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

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    Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2011

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    Price Charts Energy and Metals

    Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201

    50

    Stoc,9

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (113.890, 114.830, 110.300, 111.050, -2.88000)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201

    50

    Stoc,9

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    78

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    15

    16

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (4.68500, 4.72900, 4.63700, 4.67000, -0.02800)

    Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800900

    1000

    1100

    1200

    1300

    1400

    1500

    1600

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    gold (1,567.29, 1,575.79, 1,527.02, 1,535.88, -27.7200)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    sil ver (47.9000, 48.1200, 40.6400, 41.6400, -6.31000)

    Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500

    1000010500

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    3MT COPPER USD (9,230.00, 9,350.00, 9,220.00, 9,350.00, +30.0000)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    3MT ZINC DLR (2,224.00, 2,245.00, 2,224.00, 2,245.00, -2.00000)

    Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,750.00, 2,798.00, 2,747.00, 2,797.00, +29.5000)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    3MT LEAD DLR (2,512.00, 2,515.00, 2,509.00, 2,509.50, +18.5000)

    Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

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    Indices, weekly charts

    DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201

    50

    Stoc,96000650070007500

    8000850090009500

    10000105001100011500120001250013000

    135001400014500

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    Dow Jon es INDU AVERAGE NDX (12,810.20, 12,876.00, 12,750.00, 12,807.50, -3.00000)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1100

    1200

    1300

    1400

    1500

    1600

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    S&P 500 INDEX (1,363.61, 1,370.51, 1,349.71, 1,356.62, -6.98999)

    FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    3500

    4000

    4500

    5000

    5500

    6000

    6500

    7000

    15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

    FTSE 100 INDEX (6,069.90, 6,103.73, 6,050.71, 6,082.88, +12.9800)

    1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (3,180.68, 3,182.46, 3,143.73, 3,153.57, -26.2900)

    Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    5000

    5500

    6000

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,911.51, 2,933.46, 2,890.22, 2,932.19, +20.6799)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (19,224.00, 19,253.90, 18,502.40, 18,534.70, -601.301)

    S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)

    9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500550

    600

    650

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    S&P GSCI INDEX (755.840, 761.660, 739.740, 742.868, -15.9270)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    510

    1520

    2530

    3540

    45

    5055

    6065

    7075

    8085

    9095

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    Volatility Index (15.0700, 17.2900, 15.0700, 16.7000, +1.95000)

    Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

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    Currencies, weekly chartsUS Dollar Index spot GBP / USD

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    US DOLLAR INDEX (72.9930, 73.3190, 72.7220, 73.1400, +0.20700)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,91.30

    1.35

    1.40

    1.45

    1.50

    1.55

    1.60

    1.65

    1.70

    1.75

    1.80

    1.85

    1.90

    1.95

    2.00

    2.05

    2.10

    2.15

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    UK pound s terling (1.67090, 1.67370, 1.64620, 1.64800, -0.02210)

    EUR / USD USD / JPY

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    0.80

    0.85

    0.900.95

    1.00

    1.051.10

    1.15

    1.20

    1.25

    1.30

    1.35

    1.40

    1.45

    1.50

    1.551.60

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    EuroDollar (1.48230, 1.49020, 1.47510, 1.48260, +0.00270)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    125

    130

    135

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    Japanese yen (81.1100, 81.6900, 80.6600, 80.9300, -0.28000)

    USD / SGD USD / MYR

    9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    1.20

    1.25

    1.30

    1.35

    1.40

    1.45

    1.50

    1.55

    1.60

    1.65

    1.70

    1.75

    1.80

    1.85

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    Singapore dol lar (1.22230, 1.22920, 1.22080, 1.22790, +0.00400)

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

    50

    Stoc,9

    2.9

    3.0

    3.1

    3.2

    3.3

    3.4

    3.5

    3.6

    3.7

    3.8

    3.9

    15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

    Malaysian ringgit (2.96100, 2.97900, 2.96100, 2.97300, +0.01200)

    USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield

    Line, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.2529

    SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.0833

    Yield

    .1234

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    4.5

    5

    StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 35.602

    StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 46.373

    Value

    .123

    30

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    2000 2010

    Line, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.27

    SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 2.852

    Yield

    .123

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    4.5

    StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 46.242

    StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 58.097

    Value

    .123

    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    1990 2000 2010

    Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

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    Macroeconomic gaugeUnemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY

    EUR

    USD

    UK JPY

    GermanyLine, QaUSUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.8

    Line, QaJPUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 4.6

    Line, QaXZUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 9.9

    Line, QaGBUEMPYT/A, (S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 7.8

    Line, QaDEUNR/A, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 7.10

    Value

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    1990 2000 2010

    US

    JPY

    GBP

    Line, QaGBMFG/CA, (Base Year=2006)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 92.7

    Line, QaUSMFG/CA, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 90.709

    Line, QaJPIPMAN/A, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 82.9

    Value

    75

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    1990 2000 2010

    Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence

    China

    USA

    Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.828M

    Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.242M

    Value

    200,000

    400,000

    600,000

    800,000

    1M

    1.2M

    1.4M

    1.6M

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    1990 2000 2010

    CB Consumer confidence, LHS

    ISM services

    ISM manufacturing

    Line, QaUSNPMI/A, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 60.4

    Line, QaUSNMFGPMI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 57.3

    Line, QaUSCONCF/A, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 65.4

    Value

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    Value

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    1990 2000 2010

    Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %

    US

    GBP

    JPY

    EUR

    CNY

    Line, QJPPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 1.7

    Line, QGBPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 0.5

    Line, QECBMRO=ECBF, 31/05/2011, 1.25

    Line, QUSPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 3.25

    Line, QaINPLR, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 9.5

    Line, QaCNLENR1Y, ( S1, S2), 31 /05/2011, 6.31

    Price

    .12

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    1990 2000 2010

    PctCng, QaUSCPI/A, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 2.702

    PctCng, QaGBCPI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 4.053

    Line, QaINCPINET, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.823

    Line, QaXZCPIALL, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 2.8

    Line, QaJPCPINY, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 0

    Line, QaCNCPIYY, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 5.383

    Value

    .123

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    1990 2000 2010

    Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research

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    Traders positions vs. PriceSoybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    price,USc/bushel

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -200

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    30

    40

    50

    60

    price,USc/lb

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    price,USc

    /lb

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    40

    60

    80

    1

    00

    120

    140

    price,US$/b

    arrel

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    price,USD/

    t.oz

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    price,USc/lb

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -600

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    price,USc/bushel

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    -200

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    50

    100

    150

    200

    price,USc/lb

    '000lots

    Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

    Source: CFTC and Pacrim research

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    Spreads cornerPME vs. ULSD CPO vs. PFAD

    Spread, QPME-CIFARA, 04/05/2011, 299.75

    SMA, Spread(QPME-CIFARA, QULSD10-C-NWE), 04/05/2011, 353.63

    Value

    USD

    T

    .12

    0

    200

    Line, QPME-CIFARA, 29/04/2011, 1,335

    Line, QULSD10-C-NWE, 04/05/2011, 1,035.25

    Price

    USD

    T

    .12

    600

    900

    Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    252.58

    Spread, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 400.17

    EMA, Spread(QPALM-MYFOB-P1, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1), 03/05/2011, 213.96

    Value

    USD

    T

    .12

    100

    200

    300

    Line, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,145.17

    Line, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 745

    Price

    USD

    T

    .12

    400

    600

    800

    Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

    Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 03/05/2011, 170EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 03/05/2011, 3.68

    ValueUSD

    T

    .12

    -100

    0

    100

    Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 03/05/2011, 2,090

    Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,920

    Price

    USD

    T

    .12

    500

    1,000

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    1990 2000 2010

    Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 770SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 03/05/2011, 605.76

    ValueUSD

    T

    .12

    0

    400

    Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,920

    Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,150

    Price

    USD

    T

    .12

    500

    1,000

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    1990 2000 2010

    SBO @ CBOT vs. CPO @ BMD Sugar white premium, Sug@LIFFE vs. Sug @ ICE

    Spread, QBOc1, 04/05/2011, 170.855

    SMA, Spread(QBOc1, QKPOc3), 04/05/2011, 81.284

    Value

    USD

    T

    .123

    0

    100

    200

    Line, QBOc1, 04/05/2011, 1,263.69

    Line, QKPOc3, 0 4/05/2011, 1,092.836

    Price

    USD

    T

    .123

    300

    600

    900

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

    Line, QLSUc1, 03/05/2011, 609.5

    Line, QSBc1, 03/05/2011, 486.1

    Price

    USD

    T

    .1

    200

    400

    Spread, QLSUc1, 03/05/2011, 123.38

    SMA, Spread(QLSUc1, QSBc1), 03/05/2011, 96.501

    Value

    USD

    T

    .123

    050

    100

    1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    1980 1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

    Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

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    Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sourceswe believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility

    or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed asa recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.