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Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle ABM Outlook.pdf · – World‐wide...
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2/29/2016 1 Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University [email protected] http://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/koontz Colorado March, 2016 Outline • Long‐term Price Outlook – Corn – Forage – Wheat – Cattle – Sheep & Lambs – Others… • Short‐term Price Comments. • General Economy I would love to stand here and tell you, “$5.00 corn, $8.00 wheat and $3.00 calves – for the rest of your life.” But this is a competitive economy and agriculture is a competitive industry.
Transcript of Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle ABM Outlook.pdf · – World‐wide...
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Commodity Market Outlook:Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle
Stephen R. KoontzProfessor & extension economist
Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics
Colorado State University
http://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/koontz
Colorado
March, 2016
Outline
• Long‐term Price Outlook– Corn
– Forage
– Wheat
– Cattle
– Sheep & Lambs
– Others…
• Short‐term Price Comments.
• General Economy
I would love to stand here and tell you, “$5.00 corn, $8.00 wheat and $3.00
calves – for the rest of your life.”
But this is a competitive economy and agriculture is a competitive industry.
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Summary
• High prices in 2007‐2013 were the result of– Strong demand.
– Supply disruptions.
– World‐wide volatility but by underlying growth.
• Moving forward 2016‐2020?:– Plentiful supplies of everything.
– Weak‐to‐little demand growth.
– Strong dollar.
• It’s not the 1980’s – but there are similarities.
• Weaker prices & margins.
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Weekly Corn Contract
The trading range for corn is $3.35-$4.50/bu. Except…
$8.00
$5.00
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DEC 2015 Corn Contract
Blue was the correct trading range & green can happen again but not for long…
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Bottom line on corn basis: strong for as big as the crop was. Good demand and movement. Big weak basis in regions with excellent sorghum crop.
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Forecast $3.65-4.20/bu…
DEC 2016 Corn Contract
We will trade $3.75-$4.05 until there is a reason not to. We could move up to $4.10, $4.20, & $4.45 but… Sell rallies…
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Corn Outlook
• Market price is where fundamentals say it should be.
• Acreage next year? Rotation with soybeans? Cash flow & debt?
• Demand? Trade? Storage?• Basis?• Price outlook – 16/17 @ $3.65‐$4.00/bu. And we’ve had the two big crops.
• Aggressive sales on any weather‐driven rally. Resistance @ $4.20 & $4.50.
Weekly KC Wheat Contract
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Monthly KC Wheat Contract
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Bottom line on wheat basis: weak for the reduced acres. Poor demand and movement.
JUL 2016 KC Wheat Contract
Forecast $4.25-4.75/bu…
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Wheat Outlook
• World: Building stocks.
• U.S.: huge stocks but reduced acres.
• World weather?
• But soft exports due to strong dollar.
• Basis?
• Forecasts: JUL 2016 @ $5.00 with range $4.50‐5.25/bu. And aligned with fundamentals.
• Aggressive sales @ $5.20 & $5.75. Likely storage opportunity into late 2016.
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G-NP-2208/12/15
70
80
90
100
110
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mil. Tons
US ALL HAY STOCKSDecember 1
Data Source: USDA‐NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
G-NP-2108/12/15
5
10
15
20
25
30
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Mil. Tons
US ALL HAY STOCKSMay 1 (Beginning of Crop Year)
Data Source: USDA‐NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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PERCENT CHANGE ALL HAY ACRES(2013-2014)
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
2/2/2015
U.S. Total: ‐1%
GL_GR310Greeley, CO Thu Feb 25 2016 USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market NewsColorado Hay ReportCompared to the last week, hay movement light with prices steady on grass hay and lower quality alfalfa. Very little movement on Dairy quality alfalfa. Demand light. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay.
Northeast Colorado AreasAlfalfaLarge Squares: Utility 85.00 DEL.No reported quotes for all other classes of hay.
Southeast Colorado AreasAlfalfaSmall Squares: Premium 200.00 (6.45-6.90 per bale).
Sorghum SudanRound: Good 85.00.No reported quotes for all other classes of hay.
San Luis Valley AreaNo reported quotes for all other classes of hay.
Southwest Colorado AreasGrassSmall Squares: Premium 245.00 (8.00 per bale, Certified Weed Free).
Orchard GrassSmall Squares: Premium 265.00 (8.00 per bale).No reported quotes from all other classes of hay.
Mountains and Northwest Colorado AreasNo reported quotes for all other classes of hay.
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Forage Outlook
• Plentiful except for high‐quality.
• Excellent hay:
– Alfalfa $150‐$175/T.
– Grass $85‐$100/T.
• Low‐quality hay: <$65‐$85/T.
• Back to more small bales…
Other Crops
• Oilseeds: The one market with long‐term growth potential.– Record large crop last year in S. Am.
• Sorghum: Superb crop last year.– Growth will depend on feed use & exports.
• Millet: Domestic demand growth potential.– Decreased acres but increased production.
• Malting barley: Excellent premiums past several years.– Weather related but weather other places.
• Potatoes: Excellent production this year.– Soft trade.
• Sugar: World versus domestic prices.– Substantial long‐term world pressure on prices.
• Hops:– This is the only commodity that I hear persistent discussion of limited
availability…
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Weekly Live Cattle Contract
$170This market is looking for a bottom – trading range $120-145/cwt.
Monthly Live Cattle Contract
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Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract
$240This market will drift lower –trading range $130-170/cwt.
Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract
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Cattle Outlook
• Fed cattle market will trend down:
– Domestic demand was strong.
– International demand & trade are weak.
– Abundant supplies of competing meats.
• Feeder cattle and calf prices will weaken for the next several years:
– Herd building.
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OCT 2015 Live Cattle Contract
OCT 2015 Feeder Cattle Contract
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10096
9186 86
82 7975 75 77 80 81 85 83
9188 85 85
8077 75 77 79 81
8692
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Index Value
RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEXAnnual, Using CPI 1990=100
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA‐ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
10095 94
86 8783 86
75 77 7680 80 83 83
9187 85 85 82 81
74 77 79 80 80
93
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Index Value
RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEXFirst Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA‐ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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10094
88 87 8581
76 74 76 79 8085 87
83
9387 88 89
8275 78 78
82 83
94 93
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Index Value
RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEXFourth Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA‐ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
02/12/16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1/4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16
1000 MT
US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTSWeekly
Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep.
Data Source: USDA‐AMS & USDA‐APHIS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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02/12/16
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
1/5/13 7/6/13 1/4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16
1000 MT
TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTSWeekly
Data Source: USDA‐FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
I-N-1502/09/16
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
Avg. 2009‐13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA‐ERS & USDA‐FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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I-N-1602/09/16
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
Avg. 2009‐13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA‐ERS & USDA‐FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
I-N-3102/09/16
‐100
‐50
0
50
100
150
200
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
US NET BEEF IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
Avg. 2009‐13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA‐ERS & USDA‐FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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I-N-2802/09/16
‐1.0
‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Bil. Pounds
US BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual
Data Source: USDA‐ERS & USDA‐FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-N-02A02/01/16
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Mil. Head
JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual
Data Source: USDA‐NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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C-N-18B02/01/16
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Mil. Head
CALF CROPJuly Estimates, U.S., Annual
Data Source: USDA‐NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
+2.3 Percent
2015 = 34.3 Million Head
C-N-3802/01/16
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Mil. Head
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTSJanuary 1, U.S.
+3.3 %
Data Source: USDA‐NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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C-N-3702/01/16
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTSJuly 1, U.S.
Data Source: USDA‐NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
+6.7 %
C-N-4802/01/16
‐4
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
4
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORYU.S., January 1
Data Source: USDA‐NASS, Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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C-P-0602/12/16
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
$ Per Cwt
AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICESSouthern Plains
500‐600lb Steer Calves 700‐800lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers
Data Source: USDA‐AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-P-6602/12/16
‐100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNSReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF COSTSTotal Cash Cost Plus Pasture Rent, Annual
Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/12/16
Date % Change Production
% Change Consumption
Fed Cattle 7‐800# Feeder
5‐600# Calf
2015: VI +1.4 ‐0.6 $127.72 $177.29 $203.51
2015 ‐2.3 ‐0.0 $148.12 $208.21 $251.25
2016: I +3.1 +3.0 $136‐137 $161‐163 $195‐197
2016: II +1.3 +0.1 $138‐140 $165‐169 $197‐202
2016: III +4.1 +0.9 $132‐135 $160‐165 $196‐203
2016: VI +2.7 +2.0 $131‐135 $158‐165 $189‐198
2016 +2.8 +1.1 $134‐137 $161‐165 $194‐200
2017: I +5.2 +1.5 $131‐136 $158‐166 $191‐201
2017: II +4.9 +0.3 $133‐140 $159‐168 $192‐204
2017: III +3.3 +0.9 $127‐134 $155‐165 $187‐200
2017: VI +4.8 +1.4 $127‐135 $152‐163 $181‐195
2017 +4.5 +1.0 $130‐136 $157‐165 $190‐198
LMIC Cattle Price & Quantity Forecasts
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OCT 2016 Live Cattle Contract
OCT 2016 Feeder Cattle Contract
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Input Market Outlook Summary
• Soft everything. Even land valuations…
• Risks moderating.
• Softening fuel costs with no volatility– Fertilizer…
– Chemicals…
• Supply industries remain operating under‐capacity & unwilling to take risk.
• We haven’t had this much cheap energy in a while. Let’s see what happens.
Weekly Crude Oil Contract
$150
$35$40-$60
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‐2.50
‐2.00
‐1.50
‐1.00
‐0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Percent Change
QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)Real Dollar (2005) Change from Previous Quarter
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center11/13/15
11/13/15
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATESeasonally Adjusted, Quarterly
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan‐78 Jan‐81 Jan‐84 Jan‐87 Jan‐90 Jan‐93 Jan‐96 Jan‐99 Jan‐02 Jan‐05 Jan‐08 Jan‐11 Jan‐14
Index
Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = 100
Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan
Livestock Marketing Information Center
08/11/2014
93/76 = 1.224. So foreign buyers of our commodities face a 22% increase in prices before even they get a chance to buy the commodities.
It’s not as bad as in the early-2000’s or the entire 1980s. But it’s worse than the Great Recession.
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Weekly S&P 500 Index Contract
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Trends Summary
• 2007‐14 were due to demand growth & weather‐related supply shocks.
• Caught‐up & recovered from both.
• Return to more normal prices & margins.
• Plentiful supplies & stocks of everything.
• Strong dollar & weak trade.
• Soft international economies.
• Cheaper energy & fertilizer & rent(?) & seed (??).
• Back to cost‐control knitting.
Outlook Summary
• Corn: $3.50‐3.85/bu. for 2016/17. Acres & weather?
• Hay: if you have a bidder then sell it
• Wheat: $4.00‐4.75/bu. for next harvest.
• Cattle: A different kind of wow…– Fed: $125‐140/cwt.
– Feeders: $145‐165/cwt.
– Calves: $175‐200/cwt.
• Sheep & Lamb follow beef & other meats.
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Contact and Link Information
http://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/koontz/
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