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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
and
Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
and
Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements
North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team
Bangkok, Thailand
January 2007
North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team
Bangkok, Thailand
January 2007
Kyle Olsen – Glenn MichaelKyle Olsen – Glenn Michael
COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM
(CAST)2020 Safety Plan Status
December 7, 2006
2020 CAST Safety Plan - December 7, 2006
On Tgt13%
Late4%
Complete83%
39
62
47 Safety Enhancements
39 Complete
08 Underway
Risk Reduction Estimated To Date
65.0 %
2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimated
70.9 %
2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 39 Complete; 6 Underway
1
15.1
2
15.0
3
.5
4
1.1
5
.4
6
7.9
7
7.9
8
7.9
9
.8
10
16.4
11
3.4
12
5.3
13
.8
14
5.7
15
9.2
16
.7
17
0
18
1.5
19
0.1
20
3.6
21
1.5
23
7.4
24R2
2.4
25
6.0
26
2.3
27
8.8
28
5.0
29
1.9
30R1
0.7
31
12.2
32
0
34R1
0
39
0
40
0
46
1.6
47
1.2
49
1.5
50
2.6
53
2.7
52
0
51
0
55
1.7
59
0
60
1.5
78
0
84
.8
85
1.2
COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE
JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level
Complete except for measurement
120
0
Late Safety Enhancements
Safety Enhancements Individual Risk Reduction
– 30R1 Human Factors and Automation 0.7
– 47 CRM Training for Tower Controllers 1.2
NEEDING MEASUREMENT
– 27 Risk Assessment 8.8
– 31 AMT Ground and Simulator Training 12.2
– 49 SOP’s for Ground Operations 1.5
– 78 Cabin Injury Reduction During Turbulence 0.0
Study of Remaining Risks
Background
Study of Remaining Risks
Background
Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
Carry-on Baggage
Child Restraint
Passenger Interference
CABIN SAFETY
IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS
GENERAL AVIATION
Loss of Control
Weather
Survivability
Aeronautical Decisionmaking
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain Approach and Landing
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight Into Terrain
Loss of Control
Weather
Uncontained Engine Failures
Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursions
Safer SkiesSafer Skies
Turbulence
Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. 9 ׀
Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
APPROVED PLAN
Completed + Plan (2007
Implementation Level)
Completed + Plan (2020
Implementation Level)
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements
(2020 Implementation
Level)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Re
so
urc
e C
os
t ($
Mil
lio
ns
)
Risk Reduction
Total Cost in $ (Millions)
2007 2020
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Ris
k E
lim
ina
ted
by
Sa
fety
En
ha
nc
em
en
ts
Completed
$$
$$ $$ $$
$$
Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. 10 ׀
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of-Control Major AccidentsWestern-Built Commercial Jets
CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of-Control Major AccidentsWestern-Built Commercial Jets
CFIT accident rateApproach-and-landing accident rateLoss-of-Control accident rate
YearMaj
or
Acc
iden
ts p
er m
illio
n d
epar
ture
s
3 year moving average (CFIT)
3 year moving average (Approach and landing)3 year moving average (Loss of Control)
Source: Ascend, Boeing
* 1 January through 1 September 2006** Worldwide departure/rates are estimated through August 31, 2006. Departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft
Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. 11 ׀
All Regions Combined Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide
(2007 Implementation Values)
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Risk Eliminated
Total CFIT LOC-I SCF-PP
SCF-NP
Ice Midair
Risk Remaining
Portionof Risk
(percent)
1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents
Study of Remaining Risks
Results
Study of Remaining Risks
Results
Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
Remaining RiskRemaining Risk
• Cargo
• Icing
• Midair
• Maintenance
Status of RR SEsStatus of RR SEs
• 24 SEs and 11 R&D Projects were developed by RR JSITs– JIMDAT has evaluated the 24 SEs and comments
by CAST Members have been addressed. – The JIMDAT recommends 18 SEs for G level
approval. • 1 SE is recommended for CAST approval in
support of international activities• 4 SEs are recommended to be retained as
Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFI)
• 1 SE was eliminated by the JIMDAT
– R&D projects have yet to be evaluated• Planned action for February JIMDAT
SE Fatality Risk Reduction vs Resource Cost
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4%
Fatality Risk Reduction of Individual SEs Over and Above the 46 SE CAST Plan (70.9% @ 2020 Implementation Values)
SE
Re
so
urc
e C
os
t ($
Mil
lio
ns
)
Cost Benefit = 1:25
Cost Benefit = 1:1
Risk Reduction of and Resource Cost of Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
Baseline Risk Reduction (46 SEs) Proposed RR SEs Total Risk Reduction - All 24 SEsDeveloped by RR JSITs (R&D excluded)
% R
isk
Re
du
cti
on
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Re
so
urc
e C
os
t ($
Mill
ion
s)
19 Remaining Risk SEsResource Cost = $16.1 MillionBenefit to Cost Ratio: 30:1
All 23 Remaining Risk SEsResource Cost = $1.53 BillionBenefit to Cost Ratio: 1:3
70.9 % 76.5 %76.2%
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005
Accidents permillion departures
United Statesand Canada
0.4
Latin Americaand Caribbean
3.2
Europe0.6
China0.23Middle East
2.7
Africa9.7
Asia 1.9
Oceania0.0
(ExcludingChina)
JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2
C.I.S.1
1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
World1.03
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005
Accidents permillion departures
United Statesand Canada
0.4
Latin Americaand Caribbean
3.2
Europe0.6
China0.23Middle East
2.7
Africa9.7
Asia 1.9
Oceania0.0
(ExcludingChina)
JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2
C.I.S.1
CAST65 SEs39 complete26 in work76% reduction
PAASTCFIT and ALAR
ESSI35 SEs JAA11 SEs EASA62% reduction
COSCAP UEMOA(late 2005)
COSCAP CISSpecific CIS Projects
COSCAP NA, SA, SEA27 SEs in work60% reduction
1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
World1.03
COSCAP BA(late 2005)
COSCAP AM
COSCAP GS(2006)
JSIT Recommended SEs JIMDAT Recommendation
(SE130) Regulation Oversight Recommend for G Level Approval(SE129) Legal Recommend for G Level Approval(SE121) Cargo Loading Trn and SOPs Recommend for G Level Approval(SE131) Cargo Safety Culture Recommend for G Level Approval(SE125) Hazmat Processing Recommend for G Level Approval(SE127) Fire Supression Recommend for G Level Approval
(SE 163) See and avoid Recommend for G Level Approval(SE159) Airspace design Recommend for G Level Approval(SE164) Part 121 TCAS Installation Recommend for CAST Approval(SE165) TCAS policies and procedures Recommend for G Level Approval(SE162) Advanced Navigation Recommend for G Level Approval
(SE134) Avionics Recommend for G Level Approval(SE133) Aircraft Design Inflight Detection-Protection Recommend for G Level Approval(SE136) Training Recommend for G Level Approval
(SE-169) Policy & Procedures – Work Cards / Shift Change / Responsibilities / ManualsRecommend for G Level Approval(SE-175) Maintenance Policy & Procedures Recommend for G Level Approval (SE-170) Aircraft Design – OEM Continuous Monitoring of Service HistoryRecommend for G Level Approval (SE-172) Policy and Procedures – Gap Analysis of Maintenance Process & Follow on Action PlanRecommend for G Level ApprovalSE ( 101) Arc Fault Breakers Recommend for G Level Approval
(SE132) Flight Crew Smoke Fume Protection SERFI(SE 160) ATC situational awareness/displays SERFI(SE 161) ATC safety culture SERFI(SE137) Weather Information SERFI
SE-165 MidairTCAS Policies and Procedures
SE-165 MidairTCAS Policies and Procedures
• Prevent midair collisions by requiring flightcrews to follow TCAS Resolution Advisories (RA’s), establish procedures for TCAS range setting and requiring that TCAS-capable simulators and flight-training devices are used for training TCAS responses and Maneuvers.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-164 MidairTCAS Installation
SE-164 MidairTCAS Installation
• Worldwide installation of TCAS in all aircraft of 33,000 pounds or greater max takeoff weight.
• ICAO requirement for aircraft of 5,700kg
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-121 CargoStandard Operating Procedures
SE-121 CargoStandard Operating Procedures
• Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by publishing and enforcing clear, concise and accurate standard operating procedures (SOP), and training the rationale behind those procedures
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-125 CargoHazardous Materials - HazMat
SE-125 CargoHazardous Materials - HazMat
• Reduce hazmat related accidents and incidents develop and implement by regulators, manufacturers (of packaging material) and shipping companies a multi-tier system to identify and safely process undeclared hazardous material.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-129 Regulation & PolicyCompliance, Enforcement and Restricted
Operations
SE-129 Regulation & PolicyCompliance, Enforcement and Restricted
Operations
• Regulators should improve their legal processes for compliance, enforcement and operational restrictions.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-130 CargoRegulation & Policy - Oversight
SE-130 CargoRegulation & Policy - Oversight
• Regulators should develop/enhance and implement a system that ensures appropriate inspector coverage for all airlines, sub-contracting, and leasing operations and assign highly-experienced inspectors to operators that require the most oversight
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-131 CargoSafety CultureSE-131 CargoSafety Culture
• Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by encouraging a culture that enhances operational safety. Safety culture can be enhanced by a safety management system (SMS).
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-136 IcingTraining – Engine Surge Recovery
SE-136 IcingTraining – Engine Surge Recovery
• To prevent accidents resulting from an engine surge caused by ice ingestion, airlines should provide adequate training for flight crews to ensure appropriate responses.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-163 MidairSee-and AvoidSE-163 MidairSee-and Avoid
• Prevent midair collisions by improving see-and-avoid capability.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-159 MidairAirspace Design
SE-159 MidairAirspace Design
• Prevent midair collisions by designing B/C/D airspace to be more easily identifiable, improving the usability of VFR charts and ensuring adequate and timely coordination of airspace design changes to users.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-162 MidairSE-162 Midair
• Prevent midair collisions by facilitating aircraft separation for users of advanced navigation systems not receiving ATC separation services.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-127 CargoFire Containment
SE-127 CargoFire Containment
• To reduce the occurrence of accidents and incidents from cargo fires, improved cargo containers should be developed to contain (or suppress) fires originating in shipped cargo
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?
SE-133 – IcingTurboprop Aircraft Ice Detection Systems
SE-133 – IcingTurboprop Aircraft Ice Detection Systems
• To prevent accidents caused by in-flight icing, for turboprop aircraft with non-evaporative ice protection systems and non-powered flight controls, install systems that automatically detect ice, measure the rate of ice accretion and warn the crew.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?
SE-134 IcingAircraft Design - Avionics
SE-134 IcingAircraft Design - Avionics
• Avionic manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers should develop and install smart pitch guidance systems on all aircraft not presently equipped to prevent over rotation in conjunction with a low energy state or aerodynamic degradation due to the presence of ice.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?
SE-101 Aircraft DesignAdvanced Circuit Protection
SE-101 Aircraft DesignAdvanced Circuit Protection
• Develop and install advanced circuit protection / arc fault breaker technology
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?
SE-169 MaintenancePolicy & ProceduresSE-169 MaintenancePolicy & Procedures
• Airlines, operators and regulators should ensure that procedures are in place related to work cards, shift changes, responsibility and authority for work assignments and that necessary manuals are complete, accurate, available and appropriately used.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-170 MaintenanceAircraft Design
SE-170 MaintenanceAircraft Design
• Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) should monitor service history to verify that design and procedural assumptions valid.
• Operators should adhere to OEM recommendations or report maintenance task difficulties
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-172 MaintenanceGap Analysis of Maintenance Process
SE-172 MaintenanceGap Analysis of Maintenance Process
• Identify and correct gaps within and between the maintenance processes that could inhibit the intended design level of safety.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
SE-175 MaintenanceFlight Critical Configurations Changes
SE-175 MaintenanceFlight Critical Configurations Changes
• Airlines/maintenance should provide visible tagging any time the pitot static system is covered.
• Preflight procedures should include specific verification that pitot static ports are uncovered.
• Appropriate for implementation in Asia?
The Needs VaryThe Needs Vary
Capacity Efficiency Safety
Thank youThank you
Kyle Olsen – Glenn MichaelKyle Olsen – Glenn Michael