Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off · Airbus 520 375 300 284 370 1055 790...
Transcript of Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off · Airbus 520 375 300 284 370 1055 790...
1 TIMET
Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off
Henry S. SeinerTIMET
2015
12-May
2 TIMET
Forward Looking StatementInformation included within this press release describing the projected growth and future results and events constitutes forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results in future periods may differ materially from the forward-looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to fluctuations in the aerospace, power generation, and general industrial cycles; the relative success of our entry into new markets; competitive pricing; the financial viability of our significant customers; the concentration of a substantial portion of our business with a relatively small number of key customers; the impact on the Company of customer or supplier labor disputes; demand, timing and market acceptance of new commercial and military programs, and our ability to accelerate production levels to timely match order increases on new or existing programs; the availability and cost of energy, raw materials, supplies, and insurance; the cost of pension and postretirement medical benefits; equipment failures; product liability claims and contractual liability; cybersecurity threats; relations with our employees; our ability to manage our operating costs and to integrate acquired businesses in an effective manner, including the ability to realize expected synergies; the timing of new acquisitions; misappropriation of our intellectual property rights; governmental regulations and environmental matters; risks associated with international operations and world economies; the relative stability of certain foreign currencies; fluctuations in oil & gas prices and production; the impact of adverse weather conditions or natural disasters; the availability and cost of financing; implementation of new technologies and process improvements. Any forward-looking statements should be considered in light of these factors. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking information to reflect anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances after the date of this document.
2
3 TIMET
TrafficBacklog Drivers
PlatformsTrends Forecast
3
4 TIMET
Record Airframe Backlogs
4Source: Boeing; Airbus as of March 2015
5 TIMET
Orders and Deliveries
5Source: Boeing, Airbus
2000 - 2014 Deliveries
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Airbus 520 375 300 284 370 1055 790 1341 777 271 574 1419 833 1503 1456
Boeing 588 314 251 239 272 1002 1044 1413 662 142 530 805 1203 1355 1432
2000 - 2014 Orders
Airbus 311 325 303 305 320 378 434 453 483 498 510 534 588 626 629
Boeing 491 527 381 281 285 290 398 441 375 481 462 477 601 648 723
6 TIMET
TrafficBacklog Drivers
PlatformsTrends Forecast
6
7 TIMET
World Traffic
7Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor
8 TIMET
World Traffic
8
↑2.7%
↑6.8%↑6.2% ↑6.5%
↑3.6%↑7.4%
Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor
9 TIMET
TrafficBacklog Drivers
PlatformsTrends Forecast
9
10 TIMET
Oil & Aircraft Deliveries
10Source: www.titudorancea.com
11 TIMET
Oil & Aircraft Deliveries
11Source: February 2015 Airline Monitor and www.titudorancea.com
12 TIMET
Oil & Aircraft Deliveries
12Source: February 2015 Airline Monitor and www.titudorancea.com
13 TIMET
The Future of Oil
13Source: www.titudorancea.com
14 TIMET
Retirements
14767 retired for 787 747-4 retired for 777-300 ER
Source: February 2015 Airline Monitor and Aviation Week
15 TIMET
TrafficBacklog Drivers
PlatformsTrends Forecast
15
16 TIMET
Geopolitical uncertainty
• Additional sanctions• Expanding military conflicts• Militant group threats
16
17 TIMET
Increasing Ti per Plane
17Source: Goldman Sachs
18 TIMET
TrafficBacklog Drivers
PlatformsTrends Forecast
18
19 TIMET
Single aisle encroachment
19
• Bombardier CSeries• COMAC C919• Orkut MC-21• Embraer E-Jet E2 family• Regional Jets
20 TIMET
Fate of the widebodies
20
Airbus Boeing
Capacity (passengers) 525 467
Length (meters) 72.72 76
Internal Cabin Width (meters) 6.54 6.1
List Price $400M $357M
Top Cruising Speed Mach 0.88 Mach 0.86
Range (nautical miles) 8300 8000
Wing Span (meters) 79.75 68.5
Fuel Efficiency 2.9L/seat/100 km 2.8L/seat/100 km
Source: http://travel.cnn.com/explorations/life/boeing-747-8-and-airbus-a380-death-match-152563
21 TIMET
Hole in the Middle
21
• Gap exists between – NEO, MAX– XWB, Dreamliner
• Payload and range capabilities
22 TIMET
TrafficBacklog Drivers
PlatformsTrends Forecast
22
23 TIMET
Making Sense of Airline Monitor Forecasts ??
23Source: Airline Monitor
24 TIMET
Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries
24
January 2006 Forecast
2015 Deliveries = 13452018 Deliveries = 16002020 Deliveries = 1695
Source: Airline Monitor
25 TIMET
Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries
25
January 2008 Forecast
2015 Deliveries = 12902018 Deliveries = 16502020 Deliveries = 1720
Source: Airline Monitor
26 TIMET
Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries
26
January 2010 Forecast
2015 Deliveries = 11502018 Deliveries = 16502020 Deliveries = 1825
Source: Airline Monitor
27 TIMET
Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries
27
January 2012 Forecast
2015 Deliveries = 15202018 Deliveries = 18002020 Deliveries = 1710
28 TIMET
Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries
28
June 2014 Forecast
2015 Deliveries = 17402018 Deliveries = 21002020 Deliveries = 2180
Source: Airline Monitor
29 TIMET
Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries
29
January 2015 Forecast
2015 Deliveries = 16402018 Deliveries = 20202020 Deliveries = 1750
Source: Airline Monitor
30 TIMET
Airline Monitor Forecast Recap
30
Build Rate Year
January 2006 AMForecast
January2008 AM Forecast
January 2010 AM Forecast
January 2012 AM Forecast
June 2014 AM Forecast
January2015 AMForecast
2015 1345 1290 1150 1520 1740 1640
2018 1600 1650 1650 1800 2100 2020
2020 1695 1720 1825 1710 2180 1750
Source: Airline Monitor
31 TIMET
Forecast
31
Source: February 2015 Airline Monitor and internal TIMET estimates and adjustments; does not apply one year offset or spares factor
32 TIMET
Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off
Henry S. SeinerTIMET
2015
12-May