Coming Attractions from the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment

Lara Whitely BinderLara Whitely BinderAlan HamletAlan HamletMarketa McGuire ElsnerMarketa McGuire Elsner

Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth SystemCenter for Science in the Earth SystemUniversity of Washington University of Washington

October 2, 2008October 2, 2008CIG Climate and Water Fall Forecast MeetingCIG Climate and Water Fall Forecast Meeting Climate science Climate science

in the public in the public interestinterest

HumanHuman HealthHealth

Agriculture/EconomicsAgriculture/Economics

SalmonSalmonForest ResourcesForest Resources

CoastsCoasts EnergyEnergy

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Water ResourcesWater Resources

A comprehensive climate change

impacts assessment for Washington State

AdaptationAdaptation

Project Domain: WA and the Project Domain: WA and the PNWPNWTo assess impacts in water and other sectors, the analysis must include all of the PNW = wide range wide range of data of data available for available for all the PNW!all the PNW!

Detailed case studies for water supply are being done for the Puget Sound Region and Yakima Basin

Reduced snowpack and changes in soil moisture will occur.

Declines in April 1 SWE vary between 35%-41% for the 2040s, depending on the emissions scenario.

Hydrology and Water Resources

** Preliminary results - subject to change**

• Average annual SWE in the Yakima watershed above Parker is projected to be 31-68% of historic levels by the 2040s for two “middle of the road” scenarios• Winter streamflows increase as basin shifts to rain-dominant

basin

Increasing thermal stress likely to become most problematic forsalmon in the interior Columbia River Basin.

In Western WA salmon, increases in the magnitude of extreme high/low flows likely to be most problematic

Projected Maximum Weekly Average Water Temperatures –

2040s

49% of stations exceed the 21ºC (70°F) water quality criteria (changes relative to 2001-2007)

Salmon

• Longer growing seasons is projected, especially for summer crops. Range for the 2040s: +10 days for Franklin/Walla Walla counties to + 27 days for Whatcom County

• Changes in spring and summer aridity projected in all agriculturally important counties

• Diseases will generally become more problematic over the next century, especially as a result of warmer temperatures.

Agriculture

• Heating degree days will continue to dominate in the 2020s and 2040s, but cooling degree days become a much more important factor in eastern WA as the region warms.

Historic A1B 2020 A1B 2040

Cooling Degree Days (F)

Energy

Improved Access to Hydrologic Scenarios in

the Columbia River Basin

Answers to FAQ regarding WA 2860 from the Department of Ecology website:http://www.ecy.wa.gov/pubs/0611014.pdf

Goals:

• Create a comprehensive, up-to-date, self-consistent, publicly available hydrologic database to support long-range planning

• Construct end-to-end process to allow updates of the database when new climate change scenarios are available

Regional Study Partners

• WA State Department of Ecology

• Bonneville Power Administration

• Northwest Power and Conservation Council

• State of Oregon

• Province of British Columbia (BC Hydro and The Ministry of Environment)

Survey Participant Agency/Organization Affiliation

• 178 participants

• State and Federal employees make up 60% of the participants

State Government, 31%

Federal Government, 29%

Private Sector, 18%

Local Government, 10%

Tribe, 4%

Academic, 4%

NGO, 4%

Survey Participant Management Areas

Water supply, 24%

Instream flow management, 20%

Hydropower, 16%

Irrigation supply, 14%

Recreation, 9%

Hatchery management, 4%

Fisheries , 3%

Water Quality, 3%

Navigation, 3%

Other, 2%

Flood Control, 2%

Habitat Conservation, 2%• Water supply, ISF

management, & hydropower production dominant management areas

• In addition to entire PNW, Snake, Yakima, and Okanogan regions were identified as important

Snake River Basin

Willamette River Basin

Mainstem Columbia

River Basin

Yakima River Basin

Upper Columbia

River Basin

Kootenai River Basin

271 Sites

Salmon River Basin

Survey Response – Data Needs

• Fine resolution• Daily time step• Spatial maps of data

anomalies/patterns of mean changes

• Excel or ASCII (text) data format

• Web or ftp data transfer

Data Variable

271 Sites

Naturalized streamflow

Regulated streamflow

Changes in flood frequency (100 yr flood)

Changes in low flow (7Q10)

Drought frequency, severity, duration analysis

Analysis of streamflow timing shifts

Gridded Data (16th degree)

Min/Max temperature

Precipitation

Soil Moisture

Potential evapotranspiration

Snowpack (SWE, depth)

Date of peak SWE

Date of 90% SWE melt

Fraction of precipitation as rain

Sample Preliminary Spatial Maps Based on Delta Method

Experiments