Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society - GBV · 2007-12-12 · a Hypothesized Globally...

Peter T. BobrowskyHans Rickman(Editors)

Comet/Asteroid Impactsand Human Society

An Interdisciplinary Approach

With 85 Figures, 46 in Color

fyj Springer

Contents

Part I • Anthropology, Archaeology, Geology 1

1 The Geologic Record of Destructive Impact Events on Earth 31.1 Introduction 31.2 General Character of the Record 3

1.2.1 Spatial Distribution 41.2.2 Age Distribution 41.2.3 Size Distribution 41.2.4 Terrestrial Cratering Rate 51.2.5 Periodic Impacts 5

1.3 Recognition of Terrestrial Impact Structures 61.3.1 Morphology 61.3.2 Geology of Impact Structures 71.3.3 Geophysics of Impact Structures 11

1.4 Impacts in the Stratigraphic Record 121.5 Impacts and the Biosphere 13

1.5.1 Early Life 131.5.2 Coupling through the Atmosphere and Hydrosphere 131.5.3 Local and Mass Extinctions 171.5.4 Threat to Humanity ;v 18

1.6 Concluding Remarks 18Acknowledgments 20References 20

2 The Archaeology and Anthropologyof Quaternary Period Cosmic Impact 25

2.1 Introduction 252.2 The Quaternary Period Cosmic Impact Record 27

2.2.1 Documented Impact Structures 272.2.2 Validated Holocene Crater-Forming Impact Events 292.2.3 Airbursts, Tektites, and Impact Glass Melts 322.2.4 A Sample of Current Studies of Potential

Late Quaternary-Holocene Period Terrestrial Impact Sites 342.2.5 Oceanic Impacts 38

- . Contents

2.3 Oral Tradition, Myth, and Cosmic Impact 392.3.1 The Nature and Principles of Myth and Oral Tradition 402.3.2 Using Myth to Identify and Model South American Cosmic Impacts ... 422.3.3 Modeling the Flood Comet Event -

a Hypothesized Globally Catastrophic Mid-HoloceneAbyssal Oceanic Comet Impact 46

2.4 Epilog and Conclusions 612.4.1 Candidate Abyssal Impact Structure 612.4.2 Post-Workshop Final Thoughts 63Acknowledgments 64References 65

3 The Sky on the Ground:Celestial Objects and Events in Archaeology and Popular Culture 71

3.1 Introduction 713.2 The Archaeological Record 72

3.2.1 Architecture 723.2.2 Artifacts and Rock Art 723.2.3 Oral Tradition 73

3.3 Celestial Objects in Popular Culture 743.3.1 Astrology in Popular Culture 743.3.2 Art and Literature 763.3.3 Other Examples 82

3.4 Garnering Public Support 833.4.1 Public Awareness and Support through Cinematic Film 833.4.2 Public Education 84

3.5 Conclusions 85Acknowledgments 85References 86

4 Umm Al Binni Structure, Southern Iraq,As a Postulated Late Holocene Meteorite Impact Crater 89

4.1 Introduction 894.2 Geological Setting 904.3 Origin of the Umm Al Binni Structure 944.4 New Satellite Imagery 95

References 101

5 Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental DownturnsThat Could Have Been Caused by Comet Debris 105

5.1 Introduction 1055.2 The Historical Record 1085.3 Mythology 1105.4 What Actually Happened - the Global Consequences? 1125.5 The Dust and Corrupted Air 112

Contents XI

5.6 The Scientific Prior Hypothesis 1145.7 The AD540 Symptoms 1155.8 Linkages to Other Events 1185.9 Conclusion 119

Acknowledgments 120References 120

6 The GGE Threat: Facing and Coping with Global Geophysical Events ... 1236.1 Introduction .->. 1236.2 Volcanic Super-Eruptions .J. 1256.3 The Toba Super-Eruption 1276.4 Reassessment of the Super-Eruption Threat 1286.5 Collapsing Ocean-Island Volcanoes and Mega-Tsunami Formation 1296.6 Volcano Instability and Structural Failure 1296.7 Environmental Triggers of Ocean-Island Volcano Collapse 1306.8 Tsunami Generation from Ocean-Island Volcano Collapses 1316.9 Contemporary North Atlantic Mega-Tsunami Risk 1336.10 High-Frequency GGEs 1346.11 Addressing the GGE Threat 136

References 138

Part II • Astronomy and Physical Implications 143

7 The Asteroid Impact Hazard and Interdisciplinary Issues 1457.1 Introduction , 1457.2 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) 1477.3 Consequences of NEA Impact 1507.4 Mitigation: Deflection and/or Disaster Management and Response 1547.5 Perceptions of the Impact Hazard 1567.6 Societal Impacts 157

7.6.1 The News Media \ 1587.6.2 Religion 5. 1597.6.3 The Military 1597.6.4 Science 160

7.7 Hazards Research/Disaster Management 161References 162

8 The Impact Hazard: Advanced NEO Surveys and Societal Responses ... 1638.1 Background 1638.2 The Spaceguard Survey 1648.3 Sub-Kilometer Impacts ' 1668.4 Communication and Miscommunication 1688.5 Public Policy Issues 169


XII Contents

9 Understanding the Near-Earth Object Population:the 2004 Perspective 175

9.1 Introduction 1759.2 Dynamical Origin of NEOs 176

9.2.1 Near-Earth Asteroids 1769.2.2 Near-Earth Comets 1789.2.3 Evolution in NEO Space 179

9.3 Quantitative Modeling of the NEO Population 1809.4 The Debiased NEO Population 1819.5 Nearly Isotropic Comets 1839.6 NEA Size-Frequency Distribution 1849.7 Conclusion 185

References 185

10 Physical Properties of NEOs and Risks of an Impact:Current Knowledge and Future Challenges 189

10.1 Introduction 18910.1.1 Key Questions before Impact 18910.1.2 The True Nature of NEOs 189

10.2 Densities: from Feather to Lead? 19010.2.1 Determining Mass and Density 19010.2.2 Typical Results on Densities 19010.2.3 Open Questions 191

10.3 Structure: from Monoliths to Rubble Piles? 19110.3.1 Determining the Structure 19110.3.2 Outer Shape and Structure 19210.3.3 Porosity and Structure 19210.3.4 Comets Disruption and Fragmentation 19310.3.5 Open Questions 194

10.4 Surface Properties: from Sand Dunes to Concrete? 19510.4.1 Estimating the Surface Properties 19610.4.2 Typical Results on Surface Properties 19610.4.3 Open Questions 197

10.5 Knowledge Expected from Future Science 19810.5.1 Remote Observations and Simulations under Development 19810.5.2 Future Space Missions 198

10.6 Conclusion 199References 199

11 Evaluating the Risk of Impacts and the Efficiency of Risk Reduction .... 20311.1 Introduction 20311.2 Near-Earth Objects Surveys 204

11.2.1 The Problem of Orbit Determination 20511.3 Checking for Impact Possibilities 20611.4 Eliminating Virtual Impactors 207

11.4.1 Decrease of the Risk Estimate 208

Contents XIII

11.5 Deflection 20811.5.1 Kinetic Energy Deflection 208

11.6 Conclusions 209References 210

12 Physical Effects of Comet and Asteroid Impacts:beyond the Crater Rim 211

12.1 Introduction: the Impact Hazard 1̂ 21112.2 Local and Regional Devastation by Impacts y/. 212

12.2.1 Thermal Radiation 21312.2.2 Seismic Shaking 21412.2.3 Ejecta Deposition 21512.2.4' Airblast 21612.2.5 Tsunamis from Oceanic Impacts 217

12.3 Global Devastation? 21812.3.1 The Thermal Pulse from Ejecta Rain Back 21812.3.2 Dust Loading of the Atmosphere 21912.3.3 Injection of Climatically Active Gases 22012.3.4 Indirect Effects of Biological Extinctions 221

12.4 Conclusion 221References 222

13 Frequent Ozone Depletion Resulting from Impacts ofAsteroids and Comets 225

13.1 Introduction 22513.2 Physical Interactions with the Atmosphere 22513.3 Chemical Perturbations of the Upper Atmosphere 227

13.3.1 Nitric Oxide Production 22713.3.2 Lofting of Water 22913.3.3 Fate of Salt Particles 23013.3.4 Activation of Halogens from Sea Salt Particles 23113.3.5 Catalytic Cycles for Ozone Depletion 23213.3.6 Estimates of Asteroid Impact and Ozone Depletion Frequency .... 23313.3.7 Model of Coupled Chemistry and Dynamics of

the Upper Atmosphere 23513.3.8 Model Results for Injections of Nitric Oxide and Water Vapor 23613.3.9 Possible Test of the Impact-Induced Ozone Depletion

Hypothesis 243Acknowledgments 244References 244

14 Tsunami Asa Destructive Aftermath of Oceanic Impacts 24714.1 Introduction 24714.2 Geographical and Temporal Distribution of Tsunamis :. 24914.3 Basic Types of Tsunami Sources 25114.4 Tsunamigenic Potential of Oceanic Impacts 254

XIV - Contents

14.5 Operational Tsunami Warning 25714.6 Detection of Impact Tsunamis by Tide Gauge Network 25814.7 Geological Traces of Tsunamis 25914.8 Conclusions 260


15 The Physical and Social Effects of the Kaali Meteorite Impact -a Review 265

15.1 Introduction 26515.2 The Meteorite 26615.3 Age of the Impact 26815.4 Effects of the Meteorite Impact 271


16 The Climatic Effects of Asteroid and Comet Impacts:Consequences for an Increasingly Interconnected Society 277

16.1 Introduction 27716.2 The Global Climatic Effects of Large Asteroid or Comet Impacts 280

16.2.1 Injection of Asteroidal and Cometary Material 28116.2.2 Injection of Dust 28116.2.3 Injections from Fires 28216.2.4 Injection of Water 28316.2.5 Injection of Sulfur Dioxide 28316.2.6 Injection of Nitrogen Oxides 284

16.3 Potential Weather and Climate-Related Impacts ofSmall to Modest-Sized Asteroids and Comets 28516.3.1 Asteroid and Comet Impacts

That Do Not Involve a Surface Impact 28516.3.2 Modest-Sized Asteroid and Comet Impacts

That Do Involve a Surface Impact 28616.4 Discussion 287

References 288

17 Nature of the Tunguska ImpactorBased on Peat Material from the Explosion Area 291

17.1 Introduction 29117.2 Search-for the TCB Remnants in the Epicenter Area 29117.3 Platinum Group Elements (PGE) Investigation 29217.4 Isotopic Investigations of Light Elements in the Peat 29517.5 Discussion 29717.6 Conclusions 298


Contents XV

18 The Tunguska Event 30318.1 Introduction 30318.2 The Hypotheses 303

18.2.1 Comet or Asteroid? 30318.2.2 "Non-Traditional" Hypotheses 30518.2.3 Alternative Approaches 305

18.3 Known Data 30918.3.1 Objective Data ^ 30918.3.2 Eyewitnesses Testimonies .A 314

18.4 Parameters Deduced 31618.4.1 Explosion Time 31618.4.2 Coordinates of the Epicenter 31718.4.3 Trajectory Parameters, Height of the Explosion and

Energy Emitted 31718.5 Tunguska-Like Impacts 320

18.5.1 Recent Models and Impact Frequency 32018.5.2 Global and Local Damages 324

18.6 Concluding Remark 324Acknowledgments 325References 325

19 Tunguska (1908) and Its Relevance forComet/Asteroid Impact Statistics 331

19.1 What Happened North of the Stony Tunguska River inthe Early Morning of 30 June 1908? 331

19.2 The Tectonic Interpretation of the Tunguska Catastrophe 33319.3 (Other) Recorded Impact Events 33519.4 (Likely) Tectonic Outbursts 33619.5 How to Discriminate between Impacts and Outbursts? 33619.6 Conclusions 338

Acknowledgments • 338References \ 338

20 Atmospheric Megacryometeor Events Versus Small Meteorite Impacts:Scientific and Human Perspective of a Potential Natural Hazard 341

20.1 Introduction 34120.2 Megacryometeors 343

20.2.1 Textural, Hydrochemical and Isotopic Characteristics 34420.2.2 Theoretical Modeling 345

20.3 Megacryometeors Versus Small Meteorite Impacts 34620.3.1 Comparison of the Rate of Falls during Human Times

(Historical Record) 34720.4 Final Remarks 349


XVI Contents

Part III • Socio-Economic and Policy Implications 353

21 Social Science and Near-Earth Objects: an Inventory of Issues 35521.1 Introduction 35521.2 Globally Relevant Disasters 35521.3 Preparation and Response: General Issues 35721.4 Preparation and Recovery: Planning 35921.5 Preparation and Response: the Problem of Trust 36221.6 Preparation and Response: the Problem of Panic 36321.7 Conclusions 365


22 Perception of Risk from Asteroid Impact 36922.1 Early Work: Decision Processes, Rationality, and Adjustment to Natural Hazards 36922.2 Stage 2: Psychometric Studies of Risk Perception 37122.3 Perceptions Have Impacts: the Social Amplification of Risk 37322.4 Stage 3: Risk As Feelings 37422.5 Public Perceptions of the Impact Hazard 377

22.5.1 Will the Public Be Concerned about the Impact Hazard? 37722.5.2 Exploratory Research on Public Attitudes and Perceptions 379

22.6 Where Next? 380Acknowledgment 381References 381

23 Hazard Risk Assessment of a Near Earth Object 38323.1 Background ; 38323.2 Defining Risk 38423.3 Ontology of NEO Hazards 386

23.3.1 Level 1 NEOs 38623.3.2 Level2 NEOs 38823.3.3 Level3 NEOs 38923.3.4 Level 4 NEOs 390

23.4 Dynamic Hazard Risk Assessment and Possible Mitigation andPreparedness Strategies 391

23.5 Potential Mitigation, Data Needs, Response, and Prognosis 395References 397

24 Social Perspectives on Comet/Asteroid Impact (CAI) Hazards:Technocratic Authority and the Geography of Social Vulnerability 399

24.1 Introduction 39924.2 The Perspective of Social Vulnerability 40024.3 Regional and Comparative Aspects of CAI Hazards 402

24.3.1 Regional CAI Risks and the Role of Secondary Hazards 40324.3.2 Comparative Threat Evaluations 40524.3.3 Uncertain Uncertainties 408

Contents XVII

24.4 Conceptual Issues 40824.4.1 Limitations of the Agent-Specific Approach 41024.4.2 Organizational Risk 411

24.5 Concluding Remarks 414References 415

25 May Land Impacts Induce a Catastrophic Collapse ofCivil Societies? ^ . . . . 419

25.1 Introduction .^J..... 41925.2 Medium-Small Scale Impacts on a European Country: a Case Study 420

25.2.1 Probability of Impact and Objects Properties 42125.2.2 Level of Damage 421

25.3 The Civil Society As a Complex System 42425.3.1 Recent Developments in the Science of Complexity 42425.3.2 What Is a Complex System? 42625.3.3 The Phase of Catastrophe 42725.3.4 Main Structures of the Country Social System 427

25.4 Results 42925.4.1 Consequences of the 13 MT Impact on the Three Points 42925.4.2 Point 1: Consequences of the 1000 MT Impact 42925.4.3 Point 2: Consequences of the 1000 MT Impact 43125.4.4 Point 3: Consequences of the 1000 MT Impact 431

25.5 Discussion 433Acknowledgments 435References 435

26 The Societal Implications of a Comet/Asteroid Impact on Earth:a Perspective from International Development Studies 437

26.1 A Mighty Heuristic: Scale, Space and Time 43726.1.1 Assumptions 438

26.2 Do CAI-Scale Events Have Any Precedents? 43826.2.1 Adaptation and Resilience .1 439

26.3 The Perspective of International Development Studies 44026.3.1 Would "Sustainable Development" Be Enough? 44126.3.2 A Remaining Big Worry 443

26.4 Some Tentative Conclusions 443Notes 445References 446

27 Disaster Planning for Cosmic Impacts: Progress and Weaknesses 44927.1 Introduction 44927.2 Probabilities 45227.3 Goal Setting 45427.4 Risk Mapping 45427.5 Safety by Improved Design 45627.6 Disaster Simulation and Prediction • 456

XVIII Contents

27.7 Warning Systems 45927.8 Disaster Planning 46127.9 Reconstruction 46327.10 Summary and Conclusions 465

References 466

28 Insurance Coverage of Meteorite, Asteroid and Comet Impacts -Issues and Options 469

28.1 Introduction 46928.2 A Brief History of Insurance 46928.3 Insurance and Natural Hazards 47028.4 Do Asteroid Impacts Fit within the Principles of Insurance? 470

28.4.1 Scenario 1: Asteroid Impact • 47128.4.2 Scenario 2: Meteoroid Impact (Meteorite) 472

28.5 Insurance Coverage of Asteroid and Meteorite Damage 47228.6 Assessing the Potential for Damage 47428.7 Insurers Need to Prepare 47528.8 The Cost of an Impact 47528.9 Insurers' Capacity to Pay 47628.10 Conclusions 477

References 477

29 The Economic Consequences of DisastersDue to Asteroid and Comet Impacts, Small and Large 479

29.1 Introduction 47929.2 Necessary Conditions 48129.3 Scenario Construction 482

29.3.1 Scenario 1 48229.3.2 Scenario2 48329.3.3 Scenario 3 48529.3.4 Scenario 4 48529.3.5 Scenario 5 48729.3.6 Scenario 6 490

29.4 Summary and Conclusions 492Acknowledgments 493References 493

30 Communicating Impact Risk to the Public 49530.1 Introduction 49530.2 Our Present World: Brief Considerations 49530.3 Principal Characteristics of NEO Impact Risks 49730.4 Previous Experiences in Disaster Prevention 49930.5 To Communicate or to Educate? 49930.6 A Scheme for Transmission of Information 50030.7 Conclusions 502

References 503

Contents XIX

31 Impact Risk Communication Management (1998-2004):Has It Improved? 505

31.1 Introduction 50531.2 1997 XF11 50531.3 1999 AN10 50831.4 2000 SG344 50931.5 2002 MN 51031.6 2002 NT7 51031.7 2004 AS1 ."7̂ 51131.8 2004 MN4 ^ 51531.9 2003 QQ47 51631.10 Purgatorio Ratio 517

References 519

32 Towards Rational International Policies on the NEO Hazard 52132.1 Introduction 52132.2 "The 1997 XF11 Affair" 52132.3 Putting the Astronomers' House in Order ; 522

32.3.1 The Minor Planet Center 52332.4 From Pure Science into the Real World 52432.5 Epilog: the True Mess 526

References 526

33 A Road Map for Creating a NEO Research Program inDeveloping Countries 527

33.1 Introduction 52733.2 The Crisis 52833.3 The Opportunity 53033.4 Conclusion 531


Index : 533

Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society - GBV · 2007-12-12 · a Hypothesized Globally...

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