COMAP Lab SREF Applications
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Transcript of COMAP Lab SREF Applications
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COMAP Lab SREF Applications
COMAP18 June 2007Boulder, CO
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Lab IntroductionSREF Applications
Day Shift Forecast Exercise
EXERCISE:1. Create Day 1 Outlooks for: Fire Weather and Winter Weather2. Create Day 1 and Day 2 Outlooks for: Severe Convective WeatherAssess threat confidence using the qualifiers: low, medium, high
DATA:Observational data available:12 UTC Upper Air Charts (handouts)12 and 15 UTC Surface Maps (handouts)
Model data available: 09 UTC SREF (online…URL below)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=case_comap
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Day 1 Severe Outlook
Hail
Wind
Torn
Valid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 1
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Day 2 Severe OutlookValid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 2
(Tomorrow)
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Day 2 Fire OutlookValid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 1
(Today)
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Lab SummarySREF Applications
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Lab Summary
Forecast Start: 09 UTC 1 January 2006
To view the case with dates included: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=case_comap_nomask
The big weather event on Day 1, Sunday 1 January 2006:
Fires in New Mexico, Texas, and OklahomaFires in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma
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Lab Summary
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Lab Summary
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Lab Summary
Sea Level Pressure and Surface Wind AnalysisValid 21 UTC 1 January 2006
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Lab Summary
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookValid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/2006/060101.html
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Lab Summary
Convective Weather
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Lab Summary
Lightning Activity (Day 1)Valid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 00 UTC 2 Jan
Lightning Activity (Day 1)Valid 00 UTC 2 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan
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Lab Summary
Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE)Valid 06 UTC 2 January 2006
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Lab Summary
Severe Convective Weather Reports (Day 1)Valid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan
www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060101_rpts.html
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Lab Summary
Lightning Activity (Day 2)Valid 12 UTC 2 Jan – 00 UTC 3 Jan
Lightning Activity (Day 2)Valid 00 UTC 3 Jan – 12 UTC 3 Jan
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Lab Summary
Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)Valid 18 UTC 2 January 2006
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Lab Summary
Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)Valid 23 UTC 2 January 2006
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Central Kentucky, ~18 UTC 2 Jan 2006(Up to F2 damage in Kentucky)
Lab Summary
Central Georgia, ~23 UTC 2 Jan 2006(Up to F3 damage in Georgia)
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Lab Summary
Severe Convective Weather Reports (Day 2)Valid 12 UTC 2 Jan – 12 UTC 3 Jan
6 injuries in GA TOR
www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060102_rpts.html
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SPC Outlook (Day 1 issued 1630 UTC): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060101_1630.html
Lab Summary
SPC Outlook (Day 2 issued 1730 UTC): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day2otlk_20060101_1730.html
Operational forecasts issued by the SPC on the morning of 1 January 2006:
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Lab Summary
Winter Weather
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Lab Summary
Liquid equivalent of 24h snow ending 06 UTC 2 January 2006Snow Reports: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/reports.html?region=National&var=snowfall&dy=2006&dm=1&dd=2&units=e&sort=value
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Lab Summary
VALID: 1255Z – 1630Z 1 January 2006
SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather
More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0001.html
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Lab Summary
VALID: 1802Z – 2230Z 1 January 2006
SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather
More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0002.html
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Lab Summary
VALID: 0038Z – 0445Z 2 January 2006
SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather
More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0004.html
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Lab Summary
VALID: 0121Z – 0615Z 2 January 2006
SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather
More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0005.html
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Archived SPC Meso-Analyses: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/
Archived SPC Forecasts: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/
USDA Weekly and Crop Bulletin: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/weather_weekly//2000s/2006/weather_weekly-01-10-2006.pdf
FEMA Reports: http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2006/janarch06.shtm
Lab SummaryAdditional Information for the Lab