Cold Land Processes

Jared K. Entin

May 28th, 2003

NASA’s Mission is About Life

NASA’s Mission:To understand and protect our home planet

To explore the universe and search for lifeTo inspire the next generation of explorers

… as only NASA can

How are Variations in Local Weather, Precipitation and Water Resources related to Global Climate Variation?

River discharge monitored globally;Snow water equivalent observations

EOS/in-situ observations of land surface state variables

Improved precipitation forecasts that support: Water supply Decision Support System with 7-10 day lead time & seasonal water supply forecasting ability

Vertical profiles of cloud structure and properties

(Cloudsat/Calypso)

Ongoing model improvementsEnhancements in computing

resources

Improved latent heating profiles and convective parameterizations within weather and climate models

Observations of tropical rainfall/energy release(TRMM)

Assessments of natural variability in atmospheric, surface and subsurface moisture stores

Unfunded

Partnership

NASA

= field campaign

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Cloud parameterization and precipitation/water-vapor assimilation enabling more reliable short-term precipitation forecasts and accurate roll of clouds in climate predictions

Quantify and elucidate mechanisms of the mean state and variability of the water cycle, including quantification of precipitation, evaporation, runoff and water storages

Global estimates of ocean evaporation and land evaporation

Global monitoring of water and energy (GIFTS)

Global precipitation measurements (GPM)

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Systematic measurements of precipitation, SST, land cover & snow

• Reservoirs and tropical rainfall well quantified• Difficulty balancing the water budget on any scale• Inability to observe and predict precipitation globally

2002 2010 2012 2014 20152004 2006 2008 IPCC Report

IPCC Report

T= Technology

development required

Detection of gravity perturbations due to water

distribution (GRACE)

T

T

Data assimilation of precipitation and water vapor

Global Soil Moisture

• Various technology development needs detailed in ESTO database to support multi-frequency SAR, higher-resolution radiometers, larger data volumes, etc.

Kn

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Enterprise Goals:

Understanddistribution ofsnowpack waterstorage and meltstate (wetness)

Models capable of predicting the water cycle,including floods and droughts,down to 10’s of km

Routine probabilisticforecasts of snowwater storage andsnowfall accurate enough to supporteconomic decisions

Improve winter stormhazard forecasting atlocal scales tosupport mitigation

Cold Land Processes Roadmap

CLPX I

• Global variations in areal extent of snow cover well quantified• Poor understanding of how local-scale processes “scale up”• Poor understanding of snow feedbacks to atmosphere

• Models don’t account for sub-grid scale snow distributions• Winter precipitation poorly observed, esp. in high latitudes• Paucity of observations of snow water content or melt state

TODAY:

AMSR-E

• Improved general understanding of cold land processes

• Improved representation of fundamental cold land processes in regional-global models

SSM/I

• Evaluation of regional-global snow models, AMSR-E snow products

• Progress in microwave radiative transfer models for snow

CL

PX

II

• New algorithms for active/passive SWE and wetness retrieval

CL

PX

IV

Va

lid

ati

on

• Examine key questions unresolved by CLPX I – e.g. dynamics, untested snowpack regimes, polar regions, sea ice, etc.

• Test and refine improved models and data assimilation

• Test and refine new active/passive algorithms with augmented Ku-band AIRSAR

CLPPPrelimTech.Devel.

CLPP Technology Development

Data Analyses

• Improved strategies for assimilation of snow information in models

CMIS (NPOESS)• Continuation of 30-year baseline of global monitoring of snow cover and depth (dry-snow only, coarse resolution passive microwave)

• Narrow-swath sampling of global snow Narrow-swath sampling of global snow water equivalent and snow wetnesswater equivalent and snow wetness

• Full global measurement of snow Full global measurement of snow water equivalent and snow wetnesswater equivalent and snow wetness

• Quantification of high latitude precipitation, fresh water stored in seasonal snowpacks, controls on variability of storage, snowpack feedback effects on weather and climate

• “Routine” modeled estimates of global SWE and snow wetness, largely unconstrained by observations

CLP Measurement Technology Development• Improved measurement accuracy and precision• Higher spatial and temporal resolution to resolve precipitation from individual storms

2002 2010 2012 2014 20162006 20082004

NexGen AIRSAR (L, C, Ku)

Imaging Ku AIRSAR

Augmentation

• Data collection as needed to support advanced CLPP preparations – algorithm refinement, ground system testing, science data processing tests, etc.

CLPPProposal

CLPP Education and Outreach

CLPP Applications Development

Unfunded

Funded

= Field Campaign

Unfunded

NRA NRA NRA NRA NRA NRA NRA

CLPP MISSION

CLPM MISSION

Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) Mission

Cold Land Processes Measurement (CLPM) Mission

Increased coordination and collaboration with polar regions and

sea ice communities

Development of International Partnerships

CL

PX

III

Cold Land Processes Working Group

GAPP GAPP GAPP GAPP GAPP GAPP

Applications for Societal Benefit

AgriculturalCompetitiveness

Air QualityCommunity GrowthInvasive Species

WaterManagement

Disaster Preparedness

Coastal Management

Homeland Security

ResourceManagement

Aviation SafetyEnergy ForecastingPublic Health