COGNITIVEEDGE Contextual complexity Almaden Institute.

COGNITIVEEDGE

Contextual complexity

Almaden Institute

Nasrudin found a weary falcon sitting one day on his window-sill.He had never seen a bird like this before. “You poor thing”, he said, “how ever were you to allowed to get into this state?”He clipped the falcon’s talons and cut its beak straight, and trimmed its feathers.“Now you look more like a bird”, said Nasrudin

Shah, Idries (1985) The exploits of the Incomparable Mulla Nasrudin & The subtleties of the Inimitable Mulla Nasrudin. London: Octagon Press

Copyright © 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 2


The taxi & the map

“The Knowledge”1851 to current day320 standard routes25K streetsPoints of public interestOrder of theatres30% success rate2-4 yearsEnlarged Hippocampus


The context

The sterility of social science & the confusion of correlation with causationKey aspects of complex adaptive systems

They are very sensitive to initial starting conditionsThey have feedback loopsThe are retrospectively coherent (which gives us a major headache)They exist far from equilibriumScalability & phase shiftsEmergent properties & the relationship of the whole to the parts

Simulation should not be confused with predictionYou cannot engineer a ecology, but …

You can destroy it by trying toHowever you can influence its evolutionBut we need new approaches to discovering meaningAnd there are no rules of engagement ……

Moving from stability to resilience: the necessary degree of inefficiency needed to ensure effectiveness Humans are not ants …..

… neither are they computers


… meeting them half way

Brains are analogue, computers are digital

Brains use content addressable memory

The brain is massively parallel not modular and serial

Processing is not fixed in the brain, there is no system clock

Short term memory is not like RAM

No hardware/software distinction can be made with respect to brain/mind

Synapses are far more complex than electrical logic gates

Processing & memory are performed in the same components in the brain

The brain is a self organizing system

Brains have bodies

http://www.cognitive-edge.com/2007/03/_only_if_we_meet_them_half_way.php


The criticality of context

"...one theory of memory suggests that memories are composed of linked sensory fragments -- odors, sights, sounds, and even body positions. Simply activating one or more of those fragments makes the entire memory more likely to be retrieved”

Cognitive Daily

"A good metaphor is something even the police should keep an eye on."

G.C. Lichtenberg


Ritual & identity

Wales 27 England 18Guide me, O Thou great Jehovah,Pilgrim through this barren land. I am weak, but Thou art mighty; Hold me with Thy powerful hand. Bread of heaven, bread of heaven, Feed me till I want no more; Feed me till I want no more.


Knowledge (I-space adapted)

Un-codified concrete

Codified abstract

DiffusedUndiffused

Embodiedexperienced

Symbolicanalyzed

Narrative articulat

ed


Narrative & complexity

Narrative is a basic patterning device of human interaction

The shift to metadata: recognizing cognitive bias

Serendipitous encounter & inquiry

Cross cultural understanding

Current applicationsRisk Assessment & Horizon Scanning

Pre-hypothesis market research

Ethical auditing & cultural mapping

Employee satisfaction surveys

Impact measurement & monitoring

Weak signal detection

Social cpmputing

“Paton’s brain” & KM systems


Knowledge is context dependent

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.


Sensing patterns in metadata


Diversity/Conflict 01.07-04.07


Connectivity/Reach 01.07-04.07


Morality/Sophistication 06.05-12.06

It is now impossible for the third and youngest son of any king, if he should embark on a quest which has so far claimed his older brothers, not to succeed. Stories don’t care who takes part in them. All that matters is that the story gets told, that the story repeats. Or, if you prefer to think of it like this: stories are a parasitical life form, warping lives in the service only of the story itself.

Terry Pratchett (1991) Witches abroad



The landscape of management

Complex Output

Simple Output

Complex InputSimple Input

Computational Complexitya simulation

NaturalisingSense-makingan ecology

ProcessEngineeringa machine

SystemsDynamics

an organism

In the idealistic approach, the leaders of an organisation set out an ideal future state that they wish to achieve, identify the gap between the ideal and their perception of the present, and seek to close it. This is common not only to process-based theory but also to practice that follows the general heading of the “learning organisation”. Naturalistic approaches, by contrast, seek to understand a sufficiency of the present in order to act to stimulate evolution of the system. Once such stimulation is made, monitoring of emergent patterns becomes a critical activity so that desired patterns can be supported and undesired patterns disrupted. The organisation thus evolves to a future that was unknowable in advance, but is more contextually appropriate when discovered

Kurtz & SnowdenBramble Bushes in a Thicket



The Cynefin framework

Bounded diversity

Humans can move systems to equilibrium states, and do so for good reason

“Multi-ontology sense-making

Example applicationsStrategy planning

Conflict resolution

Search and monitoring of incoming data

Project management and resource allocation

Innovation programs

Tool selection & application

SimpleS-C-R

Doctrine

Complicated

S-A-RAnalysis

ComplexP-S-R

Monitor

ChaoticA-S-R

Innovate


IBM: Initial Questions

Are the fundamental laws for complex systems ? i.e. 2nd law of thermodynamicsWhat are the techniques to model and discern system level properties to and from properties of parts and interactions?

From systems biology, complexity science, control theory, physics…

How to determine the complexity in a state of a system?Can we anticipate catastrophic failures?

How to engineer predictable system level properties in large-scale systems of interacting parts?

Architectural stability and standards help but often abandoned due to vendors’ competitive will

How to anticipate the effects of perturbations and evolutions?


Epistemic rain dances

Increasing variety of response

Incr

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Thank You!www.cognitive-edge.com

COGNITIVEEDGE Contextual complexity Almaden Institute.

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