Almaden Institute James Albus

8/3/2019 Almaden Institute James Albus

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NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division

A National Program

forUnderstanding the

Mechanisms of MindJames S. Albus

Senior NIST Fellow

Intelligent Systems Division

National Institute of Standards and TechnologyBldg 220, Rm B-124

Gaithersburg, MD 20899

[email protected]


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Integrate elements from existing programs in:

Neurosciences neurophysiology, brain modeling

Cognitive sciences psychology, reasoning

Computer sciences AI, simulation & modeling

Control theory mechanisms and controlGame theory decision making, cost/benefit analysis

Robotics perception, world modeling, behavior

Visualization computer graphics, video games

Bring together researchers from top laboratoriesaround the country with a common focus for a

"Decade of the Mind"

Approach


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Why Now?

Neurosciences computation and representation in the brain

-biochemistry, synaptic transmission, functional modules, brain imaging

Cognitive Modeling representation and use of knowledge- mathematics, logic, language, learning, problem solving

Intelligent Control making machines behave appropriately- manufacturing, autonomous vehicles, manipulation, locomotion

Depth Imaging geometrical modeling of 3-D world

- image & map segmentation, classification, symbol grounding

Computational Power speed and memory that rival the brain

- >1010 ops today, heading for >1015 ops.

The science & technology is ready

Integration across disciplines reference model architecture


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We are at a tipping point

Analogous to where nuclear physics was in 1905

Fundamental processes are understood in principle

Technology is emerging to conduct definitiveexperiments

Perception

World modelingReasoning

Planning

Control

Brain structure and function

Cognitive & control architecturesComputational equivalence

Language

Learning & memory

Significant military and economic applications

will develop early in the century


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We live at a unique point in the history

of science. The technology to discover

and characterize how the subjective mindemerges out of the objective brain is

within reach. The next years will prove

decisive.

-- Christof Koc

hfrom The Quest for Consciousness2004


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Computational power

will soon be available

Todays supercomputer >1014 ops

Computing power of human brain ~ 1013 - 1016 ops

1010

10111012

1013

1014

1015

1016

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Computational powerx10 every 5 years

Single board

Cluster of 10

Computing

Power

(ops)

Date

Supercomputer


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Military Future Combat System,

UGV, UAV, UUV, UGS

Commercial autos, trucks

Entertainment video games

Academic AI, robotics

Intelligent MachinesWill Be Critical for

Military Security and Economic Prosperity

Money Is Flowing

Progress is rapid

Billions of $ will be invested over the next decade


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NIST/ARL Roadmap to 2025

2005 Robust autonomous road-followingand off-road driving

2010 LADAR cameras provide the range,

resolution, and speed to cope with dense traffic

2015 Cognitive reasoning capabilities enable

useful tactical behaviors on the battlefield

2020 Cognitive reasoning and tactical behaviors

approach human levels of performance

2025 Autonomous combat vehicles surpass human

levels of performance in most, if not all, areas


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A Plan forA National Program for

Understanding theMechanisms of Mind

1. Theory and Fundamental Science

2. Experimental Test Environment

3. Practical Applications

4. Performance Metrics

5. Social, Ethical, and Legal Issues


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First Draft of a Plan

1. Theory and Fundamental Science

Goals:

a) To develop theoretical models of the brain that

describe the inputs and outputs of all of the major

neural modules and systems of the brain, and specifythe functional transformations that take place therein.

b) To develop theoretical models of the mind that

generate the functional equivalent of the phenomenaof perception, cognition, intention, imagination,

memory, learning, feeling, emotion, and behaviors

of manipulation, locomotion, and language.


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2. Experimental Test Environment

Goals:

a) To develop experimental models of the brain

that mimic the inputs and outputs of functional

modules in the brain, and mimic the functionaltransformations that take place therein.

b) To demonstrate the performance of brain models

in controlling systems applied to real-world tasksof locomotion, manipulation, imagination, reasoning,

and natural language conversation.


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3. Practical Applications

Goal:

To apply intelligent systems technology to social

and economic problems such as:

Manufac

turing

autos, applianc

es, planes, drugs, textilesConstruction roads, bridges, homes, businesses, factories

Transportation trucks, cars, buses, planes, trains

Agriculture planting, harvesting, tending, aquaculture

Mining and drilling digging, hauling, undersea ops

Recycling and environmental restorationRenewable sources of energy

Education and entertainment

Aids to handicapped and elderly

Medical and nursing care


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4. Metrics

a) To develop methods and measures for verifying,

validating, and evaluating models of mind and brain.

b) To develop methods and measures for measuring

the performance of intelligent machines and systems.

Goals:


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5. Social & Ethical Issues

Goal:

a) To confront the social, ethical, legal, and philosophical

issues related to investigating the human mind,

inc

luding the implic

ations for mental health.

b) To provide a forum for public debate of the potential

costs, risks, and benefits of understanding the mind,

inc

luding possible religious andc

ivil liberties objec

tions.

c) To address issues of unemployment, economic growth,

and environmental implications of intelligent machines.


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How Much ShouldWe Invest?

NIST Study of Economic Impact

on Manufacturing and Construction

DOD Studies on Military Impact

of Robotic Vehicles on the Battlefield

DOT Studies on Safety Impact

of DriverWarning and Collision Avoidance Systems

Investment should be commensurate

with expected benefits


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Similar National Investments

Human Genome Program ~$3 Billion

Hubble Space Telescope ~$3 Billion

Apollo Moon Expedition ~ $20 Billion

A Rational National Investment:

$4 Billion over a Decade in

Understanding the Human Mind

International Space Station ~$100 Billion

Iraq war ~$2 Billion/week


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DARPA interest is high and will continue-- Dr. Tony Tether

DARPA Director

Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures (BICA)

Biomemetic Computing

Personalized Assistant that Learns (PAL)

Transfer Learning

Integrated Learning

Architectures for Cognitive Information Processing (ACIP)

Global Autonomous Language Exploitation (GALE)

Advanced Soldier Sensor Information System and Technology(ASSIST)

Real-World Reasoning (REAL)

Coordination Decision Support Assistants (Coordinators)


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DARPA interest is high and will continue-- Dr. Tony Tether

DARPA Director

Improving Warfighter Information Intake Under Stress

Human-Assisted Neural Devi

c

es

Revolutionizing Prosthetics

Neurotechnology for Intelligence Analysts

About to begin a program to understand how the brain and

vision system work together to process and recognize images


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Krasnow Institute at George Mason Universitywill host a workshop in Spring of 2007

to Ascertain the Advisability of a

Decade of the Mind

Plans for Implementation

Plans to enlist other agencies:

National Institutes ofHealth

National Science Foundation

NASAArmy Research Laboratory

Office of Naval Research

National Academy of Science


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Or snail-mail to:James Albus

National Institute of Standards and TechnologyBldg 220, Rm B-124

Gaithersburg, MD 20899

[email protected]

Feedback Questions

If you wish to register your opinion on any of

these issues, please e-mail me at:


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Feedback Questions

2) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is achievable:

within a decade?

within two decades?before 2050?

before 3000?

never?

1) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is

a desirable goal?

3) In your field of expertise,

if you had a $ 50 million budget,and a 10 year planning horizon:

what program of research would you propose?

4) How much could you usefully spend?


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5) What areas of the brain would you choose to model?

6) What phenomena of the mind would you choose to model?

7) What parameters would you include in your model?

8) How would propose to test your model?

Feedback Questions

9) What kinds of experimental apparatus would be required to validate your

model?

10) How would you demonstrate and evaluate results?

11) What are the fundamental metrics and measures?


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12) What applications could be expected to result from success in what you propose?

in medicine?in clinical practice?in health care?in manufacturing?in transportation?in construction?in services?

in other areas?13) In each area, estimate the economic and social benefits, costs, and risks.

Feedback Questions

14) What do you think is the best approach to raising money and garnering politicalsupport?

15) What are the pitfalls one should anticipate?

16) What are the downside risks?

17) What agencies are likely to provide funding?

18) What other questions need to be asked?


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Almaden Institute James Albus

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