CNES Confidential
Transcript of CNES Confidential
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CNES Confidential
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CNES Confidential
Content
• Context and stakes• Overview of Agora• Risk mitigation approach
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CNES Confidential
Some elements of recent historyof CNES initiative
• Directive RESO / 2007 high rate Internet access for all in 2007
• Request from CIADT to CNES - 3 sept 2003 CNES to propose and assess thefeasibility of a project that would improve the satellite offer for e-divide.
• Intitial approach proposed by CNES internal studies and technical approach
• Involvement of Alcatel and Astrium check and validate the technical feasibility, the timescale and the cost / benefit analysis
• Deep exchange with european main satellite operators : understand their strategyand constraints and try to establish the conditions for a private investment.
• Initial discussions with EC, ESA, DLR exchange views on interest of major institutional european players for this approach
• Todays priority : elaborate jointly the global framework of for a sustainableapproach to close the digital divide in Europe via satellites
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CNES Confidential
ADSL Coverage of households in France 2003 - 2008
Résultats établis sur la base d’une évolution de la portée du service DSL de 2003 à 2008
M énages /couverture 2003 2 004 2005 2 006 2007 2 008 Couverture sans distinction total/partiel (nbre m énages) 20247324 21 564 335 22 734 289 23 086 574 23 394 008 23 665 156 Couverture sans distinction total/partiel (% m énages) 84% 89% 93% 94% 95% 96%Couverture avec distinction total/partiel (nbre m énages) 19585447 21 072 275 22 495 966 22 894 127 23 220 851 23 510 209 Couverture avec distinction total/partiel (% m énages) 81% 87% 92% 94% 95% 96%Eligibilité 128 kbps (nbre m énages) 18637645 19 747 374 21 260 527 21 707 893 22 045 619 22 435 916
E lig ibilité 128 kbps (% m énages) 77% 81% 87% 89% 90% 91%Eligibilité 512 kbps (nbre m énages) 17305182 18 297 755 19 771 019 20 445 711 20 972 666 21 615 262
E lig ibilité 512 kbps (% m énages) 72% 75% 81% 84% 86% 88%Eligibilité 1024 kbps (nbre m énages) 13572899 14 367 149 15 538 017 16 075 612 16 496 115 17 080 463
E lig ibilité 1024 kbps (% m énages) 56% 59% 64% 66% 67% 69%
As soon as 2005, 93% of house holds could depend on « ADSLized » switch ( 87% of thelines are eligibles) ; in 2008 those ratios reach respectively 96 et 91%.
Around 9% of the residential lines would remain without DSL for a very long time.
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CNES Confidential
French companies uncovered at 128 kbps 2003 - 2008
total établissements privés (sièges+secondaires) non couverts 2003 2 004 2005 2 006 2007 2 008 0 salarié 746 570 640 143 504 113 457 345 421 145 380 623 1 à 5 salariés 231 251 188 183 127 645 112 631 102 144 89 493 6 à 9 salariés 34 818 27 386 17 379 14 982 13 386 11 443 10 à 19 salariés 25 670 19 896 12 520 10 792 9 672 8 266 20 à 49 salariés 19 157 14 772 9 016 7 674 6 814 5 745 50 à 249 salariés 13 515 10 325 6 011 5 021 4 428 3 689 250 à 500 salariés 3 933 3 102 1 920 1 650 1 492 1 295 Plus de 500 salariés 13 567 10 648 6 150 5 266 4 760 4 084 Total 1 088 480 914 455 684 755 615 362 563 840 504 637
% établissements privés (sièges+secondaires) non couverts 2003 2 004 2005 2 006 2007 2 008 0 salarié 36% 31% 24% 22% 20% 18%1 à 5 salariés 22% 18% 12% 11% 10% 9%6 à 9 salariés 19% 15% 10% 8% 7% 6%10 à 19 salariés 18% 14% 9% 8% 7% 6%20 à 49 salariés 17% 13% 8% 7% 6% 5%50 à 249 salariés 15% 11% 7% 5% 5% 4%250 à 500 salariés 14% 11% 7% 6% 5% 5%Plus de 500 salariés 12% 9% 5% 5% 4% 4%Total 29% 24% 18% 16% 15% 13%
•The coverage rate is lower than for households .•By 2005, 18% of sites will not be covered. By 2008 this ratio is 13 %•Uncovered sites are mainly SoHo’s and Very Small Enterprises.
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CNES Confidential
France - Couverture ADSL entreprises inéligibles à 128 kbps - 2003 à 2008
Couverture : total partielle sans distinctiontotal établissements (sièges + secondaires) non couverts 2003 2 004 2005 2 006 2007 2 008 < 500 habitants 67% 57% 48% 40% 33% 27%500 à 1000 habitants 58% 46% 36% 29% 24% 20%1000 à 2000 habitants 49% 30% 11% 11% 11% 11%2000 à 5000 habitants 22% 12% 3% 3% 3% 3%5000 à 20 000 habitants 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%20 000 à 50 000 habitants 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Plus de 50 000 habitants 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Total 21% 16% 11% 9% 8% 7%
Couverture : éligibilité à 128total établissements (sièges + secondaires) non couverts 2003 2 004 2005 2 006 2007 2 008 < 500 habitants 82% 77% 71% 65% 60% 55%500 à 1000 habitants 74% 65% 58% 51% 46% 42%1000 à 2000 habitants 63% 46% 28% 26% 25% 23%2000 à 5000 habitants 32% 22% 10% 8% 7% 4%5000 à 20 000 habitants 5% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%20 000 à 50 000 habitants 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%Plus de 50 000 habitants 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%Total 29% 24% 18% 16% 15% 13%
• 67 to 82% of company sites located in small villages (less than 500 inhabitants) are uncovered. • For cities larger than 5000 inhabitants this ratio is less than 5%.
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CNES Confidential
satellite access today : a competing technology
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W i F i + W I P
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W I P + s a t e l l i t e
S a t e l l i t e E 2 ESource : Alcatel Group study ,based on today’s prices
• The unique technology offering uniform/ ubiquitous access ( when visible)• Easy to hybrid with terrestrial technologies like Wi-Fi and PLC • Tomorrow’s satellite access market share will highly depend on few key
factors of success:
cost competitiveness & QOS Time to market & distribution network
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CNES Confidential
Our concern for the future :
Major Influence of satellite bandwidth pricing on ISP business plan Corporate Market - ISP Business Plan
Current price for bandwidth ($3950 MHz/Month)
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$499 monthly servicefee$399 monthly servicefee$299 monthly servicefee$199 monthly servicefee$129 monthly servicefee
Corporate Market - ISP Business Plan Reduced price for bandwidth ($1000 MHz/Month)
Increased Efficiency
-10000000
-5000000
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$499 monthly service fee
$399 monthly service fee
$299 monthly service fee
$199 monthly service fee
$129 monthly service fee
… 1.7 M€ / 36 MHz / year
No sustainable Satellite business For ISP
undercurrent pricing conditions
0.4 M€ / 36 MHz / yearIs a level of pricing authorisingCompetitive corporate offers
It requires a drastic change
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CNES Confidential
Need for a strong & quick reaction from space actors
CNES Contribution :
AGORA
Accès Garanti et Optimisé pour les Régions contribuant à l’Aménagement du territoire
----------Affordable and Garanteed Offer for Regional Acces / or Rural Areas …
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CNES Confidential
Which services for which users ?Objectives of the initiative
A single architecture to offer high rate access services for :
- professionals (SME), local collectivities and access points
- tele-workers & Soho
- residential ( bundled with TV )
More robust approach to various market segment ramp up
The step by step approach conducted since years proves limited success ( SMEs only)
the virtuous circle ignition requires an ambitious goal targeting residential market
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CNES Confidential
Main principles of the AGORA System:• Enhanced communication system (DVB S2 adaptive standard)
– increased spectral efficiency• Low cost terminals
– More affordable solutions – Shared access between users when suitable via terrestrial technologies
• Use of high gain spacecraft antennas ( narrow spots)– gain in satellite power ( factor 10)– lower power ground terminals ( cheaper )
• Frequency reuse – Increased capacity ( factor 4 to 10 via multispots)
• Lighter Architecture of repeaters – Wider transparent channels ( 2 to 4 times more data rate per hardware element )– Assemblies of individual functions >> cheaper payload– Lower power amplification per channel (more channels possible)
New Ground network:ISD 2005
New Space segment: ISD 2007
global optimisation for max. efficiency
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CNES Confidential
Phased approach of our nominal scenario (*)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Satisfy demand with existing satellitesIntroduce improved ground equipmentsEfforts to expand satellite customers base
Step 1
Agora exploitationStep 2 : devDevelop and launch the first optimised satellitePromote new & very attractive offers
European e-divide( based on @bus ) Step 3 : dev exploitation
Expand the capacity, redundancy and coverage of the system for fully operational capability.Potential upgrade of service ( mesh through some processed channels….)
(*) This ambitious scenario will demand consolidation with ESA and EC
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CNES Confidential
Agora Early design features• Simple transparent payload• Ka Band Baseline• Off The Shelf platform for early bird (time to market)• @bus candidate for increased capacity (cost efficiency)
==> typical 10-15 Gb/s for early bird==> typical 25 Gb/s for second bird==> availability in Europe of the required technology
(including double sourcing) ==> good confidence in schedule
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CNES Confidential
Typical example of Agora coverage european with 32 spots
System optimisation requires a wide coverage
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CNES Confidential
Major trade offs Status
Baseline choice Open points Ka Band Sub band selection DVB RCS/S2, Polarisation scheme Beam width : 0.7° Coverage and spot beams
number Full transparent channels Limited number of Processed
channels
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CNES Confidential
The DSL in the Sky solution leverages 2 standards
– Network architecture, management of operations: same as xDSL– Satellite layer based on DVB-S2 / DVB-RCS standard
"DSL in the Sky"
Alcatel 9780Satellite Terminal Alcatel 9780
Satellite Gateway
DVB-RCS
BAS
InternetISPRouter
Router
Corporate LAN
ISPServers
AnyNetwork
BASDSLAMxDSL
Modem
DSL
ATM
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CNES Confidential
Repeater block diagram
CAMP+ LTWTA
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witc
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R sw
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DOCONAssembly
R s
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DOCONAssembly
OL
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DOCONAssembly
OL
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LNA KaAssembly
R s
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DC/ DC
LNA KaAssembly
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LNA KaAssembly
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LNA KaAssembly
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5:3 CentralizedDC/ DC
LNA KaAssembly
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LNA KaAssembly
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Outboundinput filters
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CAMP+ LTWTA
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DOCONAssembly
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Inbound &Outbound LNA
assemblies
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Inbound Doconassemblies
CAMP+ LTWTA
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CAMP+ LTWTA
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Outboundchannels DMUX
Outboundfilters & OMUX
Outbound channelsamplification
Inbound channelsamplification
Inbound filters& OMUX
Outboundchannels IMUX
OutboundchannelsCMUX
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CNES Confidential
Candidate Satellites 1 and 2 overview
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CNES Confidential
Accomodation analyses
• Internal Layout on @ bus Compatibility with Ariane 5 / ATLAS
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CNES Confidential
Economical Performance of Agora project
CAPEX * in k€ for 1 Mbit/s transmitted
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80
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20
0
DVB SConventionnal Ku sat TV
DVB S2
Transmission through Ka band multi-beam antennas
Gain factor 4/ 5:change of payload concept
Scale effect of the satellite
Gain factor 1,3 : change of standard/ system
4 kW 9 kW 12 kW 15 kW 18 kW Payloadpower
(*) cost of satellite + launch + insurance without ground segment
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CNES Confidential
What can Space Agencies and Governments offer?
• focus R&D efforts on operators needs enabling fast development and extensive validation
• contribute to federate institutional users • promote those applications through wide application
demonstrations in Europe
• different partnership schemes are to be explored for the financial set up and the transfer of the assets to private sector
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CNES Confidential
• Risk is the main concern of private investors :
Need for a Robust Risk mitigation approach
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CNES Confidential
Techno risk : industry does not start from scratch
• Technological preparation through on going ‘almost completed) R&D actions (national, ESA).
• Around 50/ 100 M € in FR in R&D since 2000
• Equivalent effort in major European countries
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CNES Confidential
AGORA 1 vs past and on going Astrium programmes.
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INT 10
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W3A ANIK F1-R
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Série3E2000E2000+AGORA
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CNES Confidential
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System risk : End to end validation before integration
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CNES Confidential
Market risk : Step 1 ramp up mandatory
• A window of opportunity does exist today • Waiting 3 years until 2007 would affect the global market
share of satellite• Current pricing for bandwidth and terminals weaken
severely the viability of service providers and compress the growth perspectives
• A strong public intervention in conjunction with operators could accelerate the take off of this market
• ESA “DDSO target 1” should reach a high momentum quickly.
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CNES Confidential
Financial risk
• Private operators are reluctant to carry all the risks associated with these novel architectures and offers
• Our baseline proposal is to procure the satellites, conceived to be operational which should be sold to the private sector at “market price” immediately after having been developed
• This implies that all generic non recurring developments will have been supported by R&D funds
• The baseline proposal may be amended to cope with specific interests or contributions of operators
• An initial support from the EC would be highly beneficial to the sustainability of the market on the long term
• Obviously, the financing set-up retained, must comply with the EC rules
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CNES Confidential
The next step :
• CNES will pursue the technical work with industry
• while proposing – cooperation framework with ESA and national
Agencies– partnership schemes with operators– institutional add on missions with French MOD