Climate Services: The temperature is going up but so are the opportunities!
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Transcript of Climate Services: The temperature is going up but so are the opportunities!
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Climate Services:
The temperature is going up but so are the
opportunities!
John F. Henz, CCM
HDR Engineering, Inc.303 East 17th Avenue, Suite 700Denver Colorado [email protected]
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John F. Henz: “roots”• BS Meteorology, U Wisc• 4 yrs in Air Weather
Service• MS Atmospheric Science,
CSU
• Geophysical R&D Corp
GRD Weather CenterCCM #270
• Henz Kelly & Associates• Henz Meteorological
Services (HMS)
• HDR Engineering, Inc of Omaha NE purchased HMS Nov 2000.
• HDR is a top twenty Architect & Engineering firm with over 5,500 owner-employees in 42 states and over 140 offices.Near $1B in 2006.
• Nat. Tech Advisor,Hydro-Meteorology
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Increased awareness of climate change creates public and business needs
• Businesses want input for use in strategic planning.
• Cities/Counties/States are concerned with aging infra-structure impacts.
• Building design concerned with “green” fingerprint and sustainability.
• Engineers/architects grappling with changing design baselines.
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The weather enterprise
Private sector
IdealSolution
Government sectorAcademic
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So what should we do?
Reality: Climate services are a driving force in the market place.
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Meteorology-Engineeringneed each other
• Many atmospheric science/meteorology departmentsco-located with engineering schools and/or environmental/natural resource departments.
• In school, do “the same problem sets” and in business solve the same problems = commonalities exist.
• New data sets provide the opportunities for meteorologists to quantitatively solve problems.
• Credentials count: PE, CCM, CFM, etc.
We need analytical meteorologists!
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Opportunities abound
• New data sets and bases: WSR-88D, surface mesonets, profilers, ACARS, new satellites.
• Strong public awareness of climate change, global warming and natural hazards (2005 hurricane season).
• A myriad of problems to be solved and more coming onboard everyday.
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Climate change has heightened interest in extreme weather
• Power utilities have to deal with climate change, related costs and carbon issues.
• Water suppliers concerned with changes in precipitation, runoff amount and timing and drought frequency, especially in western half of USA.
• Insurance companies are concerned with increased risk associated of severe weather.
• Aging infra-structure is at risk from increased flood and rain threats.
• Coastal areas want to plan for rising ocean levels.• Dam safety agencies concerned with extreme
precipitation event threats.
“some examples”
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A “weather enterprise success”
• Jan 1,1997 Reno-Sparks NV hit by devastating flood that was under-forecast. NO flood response plan existed.
• Damage in $100M’s, airport closed a week, warehouse district a mess, fatalities and injuries.
• In 2003/4 HDR contracted by COE and Washoe County WR to develop a flood response plan and develop co-operative response. NWS CNRFC developed special aids.
• 2003/04 Reno-Sparks NV FRP developed based on 1997 flood.
• Dec31/Jan 1 2006 Reno/Sparks hit by “déjà vu flood”. Order of magnitude less damage, no fatalities, airport stayed open!
1997
2006
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Climatic Indices – powerful tools• Multi-variate ENSO Index: Energy transport, cloudiness,
winds, SST in tropical Pacific (MEI, SOI)
• PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) – Primary North-South difference in sea temperature in Pacific Ocean is varying on shorter time scales –why?
• NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) – linked to changes in sea surface temperature conditions and heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean.
• AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) a harbinger of multi-year changes
• MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) Sends pulses of energy into sub-tropical jet stream.
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Crucial climate information for strategic decision-making
SOI
PDO
MEI
NAO
AMO
PNA
MJO
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Flathead Reservoir, MT Drought Management Plan (2002-2007)
• Balance water needs.
• Accurate identification of low flow/flood years.
• Maintain credibility with public and agencies.
• Make sure it works!• Climate change
concerns$100M
Recreation Jun-Sep
Hydro-Power
Winter
Minimumin-stream
flows
Flood Control
PoolSpr.
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Normal vs. El Nino vs. La Nina Basin Precipitation
Regime Oct-Dec Inches(+/- avg.)
Oct-Mar Inches(+/- avg.)
La Nina =Wet
6.82”(+1.49”)
12.59”(+2.29”)
Normal 5.33” 10.33”
El Nino =Dry
4.85”(-0.48”)
8.52”(-1.81”)
Driest 10 yrs = drought
3.25”(-2.08”)
6.21”(-4.12”)
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Flathead Lake Drought Management PlanPercent of Water Years (1951- 2003) from October to April with Correct DMP Activation Decision
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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Water Year Month
Per
cent
Cor
rect
(%
)
MEI Based DMP Activation FPRI Based DMP ActivationMEI + FPRI Based DMP Activation
NWS/NRCS WY Forecast or Runoff volume
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WSR-88D – a climate tool too!
• Historical WSR-88D reflectivity, base velocity, QPE’s,, etc used in storm re-construction for insurance, design and basin calibration studies.
• Observations used to develop enhanced spatial and temporal precipitation distributions for design storm, flood plain delineation and extreme precipitation event documentation for dam safety.
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The October weather pattern was “more July” than October.
• Storms formed along and north of the stationary front repeatedly from ~3PM to 3AM.
• “Train-echo” effect
• Flooding rains of 4-7” in 6 hrs72-80F
60-70F
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Minneapolis, MN flood re-construction/basin calibration
• Our basin is located in the heavy rain track indicated by the NWS storm total rainfall estimate.
• The NWS QPE values produced a 40-60% under-estimate from observed rainfall and poor XP-SWM rainfall-runoff model output!
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WSR-88D “Atmosphere-truthed Z-R”.GIS-based
• Atmosphere-truthed Z-R, i.e. QPF-based Z-R.
• GIS-based radar and basin data.
• XP-SWM rainfall-runoff model: ~90%+ correlation.
• ACARS detected LLJ = enhanced rainfall for 75 min. When input into the HDR Z-R runoff correlations improved 10-15 percent.
• Used to define flood-plains and evacuation.
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October 4/5, 2005 SWWD WSR-88D Z-based Temporal Rain Distribution
vs. 100-yr SCS Type II used for designHourly Graphs of Basin Average Radar Estimated Rainfall Oct. 4th-5th, 2005 Event vs. SCS Curve Type II Curve (6.30" Total -
24-hour Event)
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0.50
1.00
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2.00
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3.00
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10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00
Time
Est
. Rai
nfa
ll
Pow ersLk
WilmesLk
WDraw South
WDraw North
WDraw Center
EastRavineSouth
EastRavineNorth
ColbyLk
CentralDraw
BaileyDraw
SCS TYPE II
Project has multi-million $ implications
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HDR Energy clients
• Concerns with coal-fired power plant operations.
• Needs for expanded wind power generation and wind prediction.
• Insights on working within the carbon exchange system.
• Exploring water needs for ethanol plant development.
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HDR Architecture clients
• Development of “green buildings”• Community planners are interested in
ways to reduce urban heat islands and associated energy consumption.
• Community sustainability has been embraced.
• Water quality and waste recycling are major issues with only partial solutions.
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Solutions based on climate data and imaginative
applications
“A goal without a plan is a dream”
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What do engineers want?• Data and information for problem solution.• Access to basic data and information.• Limited rhetoric; “just the facts, please!”• More quantitative information on climate
impacts on water supply, carbon exchange opportunities and global to micro-climate cause-effect relationships..
• More knowledgeable meteorologists and climatologists within companies to act as trusted problem solvers for clients.
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The “weather enterprise solution”
Private sector: client problem interface
Providing solutions to
climate change
Government sector: data and information
Academic sector:
Training and research
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Bottom line: What a wonderful time to be a
meteorologist!
• Opportunities are real – climate change and real-world use of new data sets.
• The next ten years should be another “golden age” for meteorology!
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QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
HDR Engineering, Inc.303 East 17th St, Suite 700Denver, Colorado 802031.303.764.1520www.hdrinc.com
Engineering, Consulting and Architectural Firm– 5,500+ employees– Architectural: hospitals,
federal, others– Transportation:
bridges, roads, rail – Water resources– Meteorology– Energy– Community Planning &
Urban Design– Construction Services– Environmental
www.hdrweather.com