Prof Brendan Mackey, Director Griffith Climate Change Response Program

Griffith University, Queensland www.griffith.edu.au/climate-change-response-program

Climatescienceupdate&impactsfor

Queensland

Public Seminar Cobb +Co. Museum, Toowoomba

Renew Toowoomba Branch 17 May 2019

https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107817

…IbelieveweshouldaimtohaveaconventiononglobalclimatechangereadybythetimetheWorldConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopmentmeetsin1992.ThatwillbeamongthemostimportantconferencestheUnitedNationshaseverheld.Ihopethatweshallallacceptaresponsibilitytomeetthistimetable…”

“….TheUnitedKingdomthereforeproposesthatweprolongtheroleoftheInter-governmentalPanelonClimateChangeafteritsubmitsitsreportnextyear,sothatitcanprovideanauthoritativescientificbaseforthenegotiationofthisandotherprotocols……Wecanthenagreetotargetstoreducethegreenhousegases,andhowmuchindividualcountriesshouldcontributetotheirachievement…

Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher - Eco Warrior - SpeechtoUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly1989Nov8

AgroupofstudentstrackedMrAbbottdowninalocalcafeaftertheprotestandvoicedtheirconcernstohim.Herespondedtothestudents'questions,tellingthem"theearthhassurvivedmanythings".Healsotoldthemhedidn'tbelievethe"environmentalcatastrophe"predictedbyscientistswouldcomeabout."I'mnotsayingthatthereisn'tgoingtobesometimeinthefuturewhen,forwhateverreason,thingscometoanend,butIdon'tbelievethatmodestincreasesofatmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsoverthenextfewdecadesareboundtobringaboutthekindofenvironmentalcatastrophethatyouseemtofear."

ByLauraChungandJennyNoyesMay4,2019—8.30am

The science is “in” on human forcing of natural processes that drive Earth’s climate system

MitigationImpacts,vulnerability&adaptation

Current&futureclimate

We know the climate is changing abnormally from observed weather data

And we can scientifically project future climate using models

But not toy models, like Lego models

www.stedscathedral.uk

…I mean scientific models

Climate models can correctly replicate recent warming only if they include human influences

Source: IPCC (2013), Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Figure 10.21.

Black=observed Blue=modelnatural Pink=modelnatural+human

•  Theclimatewillcontinuetochangeforever

•  Thenew(climatic)norm,isno(climatic)norm

•  Climate-riskprofileswillcontinuetochange“forever”

Adapting to manage climate-related risks is no longer optional

Hazards, impacts & risks change for Queensland & Gold Coast from current and future climate

•  Heat waves •  Floods •  Coastal erosion •  Great Barrier Reef •  Catastrophic fires •  Dangerous jelly fish •  Financial risks

Heat waves

Observed warming

Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page7

Observed change in extreme heat events

https://app.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/dashboard/#responseTab1

Heat waves

Floods

Astheclimatewarms,heavyrainfallisexpectedtobecomemoreintense,basedonthephysicalrelationshipbetweentemperatureandthewater-holdingcapacityoftheatmosphere.Forheavyrain

days,totalrainfallisexpectedtoincreasebyaround7percentperdegreeofwarming.Forshort‑duration,hourly,extremerainfallevents,observationsinAustraliagenerallyshowalargerthan7

percentincrease.Short-durationrainextremesareoftenassociatedwithflashflooding.

Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page7

Observed change in rainfall

•  Astheclimatewarms,heavyrainfall isexpectedtobecomemore intense,basedonthephysicalrelationshipbetweentemperatureandthewater-holdingcapacityoftheatmosphere

•  For heavy rain days, total rainfall is expected to increase by around 7 per cent perdegreeofwarming

•  Forshort‑duration,hourly,extremerainfallevents,observationsinAustraliagenerallyshowalargerthan7percentincrease

•  Short-durationrainextremesareoftenassociatedwithflashflooding

(Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page8)

How will rainfall change in the future?

Image:ABCWeatherbyKateDoyle15February,

TheBureauofMeteorology(BOM)hasreleasedaspecialclimatereview,officiallycallingtheraininnorthQueensland"exceptional".

HinzeDam

What should be allowed to be built downstream from the Hinze Dam?

…raisingHinzeDamtostage3isthelaststructuralfloodmitigationopportunityfortheCity.IftheCityfindsaneedtoreduceitsflood

riskinfuture,thereisnoviablestructuralmitigationalternativetogenerateany

substantialreductioninfloodrisk.

MaintainingfloodplanninglevelsatHinzeDamStage2benefitstheentireGoldCoast

communityandnoonewillbeworseoff.

Willclimatechangealterthe1:100yearfloodlevel?

Coastal erosion

TheA-LineisGoldCoastCity’smaindefenseagainst

stormsundercurrentclimate,butwillitsufficeunderfuture

climate?

Cost=$2,000permx18,000m=$436million

Will coastal erosion increase under future climate?

The solution as a new plan called Deltaplan which revitalize 3,700 km of dikes and

dams including an immense seawall costing $ 2.5 billion

The Netherlands Solution

In 1953, a massive North Sea flood disintegrated all the dikes, dams,

and sea walls, once again washing away everything that stood in its

path. The floods resulted in 1,836 deaths, 200,000 animal casualties,

and flooded 200,000 hectares of land. It was realized that a solution

had to be found- and quickly

Great Barrier Reef

Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page7

Great Barrier Reef Bleaching 2016-2017

Why does it matter? Coralreefsareprojectedtodeclinebyafurther70–90%at1.5oC(highconfidence)withlargerlosses(>99%)at2oC(veryhighconfidence)GBREcmploy63,000people,bring$6.4Btoeconomyandhasanassetvalueof$56B

How close are we to 1.5°C? •  Human-inducedwarminghasalreadyreachedabout1°Cabovepre-industrial

levelsatthetimeofwritingofthisSpecialReport•  Bythedecade2006–2015,humanactivityhadwarmedtheworldby0.87°C

comparedtopre-industrialtimes(1850–1900)•  Ifthecurrentwarmingratecontinues,theworldwouldreachhuman-induced

globalwarmingof1.5°Caround2040

Sources:IPCC1.5DegreeSpecialReportDeloitteAccessEconomics2017Image:GreatBarrierReefFoundation

Source:

Catastrophic fires

Oldfiredangerratings newfiredangerratings

On Wednesday, Rockhampton Airportrecorded catastrophic [fire] conditions forapproximatelythree-and-a-halfhoursThis was the first time this district hasrecorded catastrophic conditions and themostprolongedeventinQueenslandsincethe implementation of the current FireDangerRatingSystemin2010“When one looks at the charcoal recordswith Aboriginal burning, we haven't seenany indicators that show that there hadbeenmass fires or large intense fires likewe are seeing today, or 'mega-fires', as Iwouldcallthem”

Queensland's'abnormal'bushfireslinkedtoclimatechangeABCWeatherByKateDoyleandLucyMurrayUpdated1Dec2018,6:51am

“Thereneedstobeaparadigmshiftinthewaywelookatfireandthewaywethinkaboutfire”

SarahPerkins-Kirkpatrick,futurefellowatUNSW'sclimatechangeresearchcentre

Former fire chiefs warn Australia unprepared for escalating climate threat |Australianews|TheGuardian

www.theguardian.com10April2019Two dozen former fire and emergency chiefs from all over Australia want the next primeministertoensureemergencyserviceshavetheresourcestofightnaturaldisasterscausedbyclimatechange.

Source:https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/09/former-fire-chiefs-warn-australia-unprepared-for-escalating-climate-threat

Dangerousjellyfish

Irukandji jellyfish?

Financial risks

Between2011and2016,45extremeweatherevents caused $13 billion damage to publicassets and infrastructure. Insured damage toprivate assets in declared disaster events isvalued at $8.6 billion in the 10 years to 2016[QldCRP]

Thepropertymarket isexpected to lose$571billioninvalueby2030duetoclimatechangeandextremeweather,andwillcontinuetolosevalue in the coming decades if emissionsremainhigh[ClimateCouncil]

By2050,climatechangeisprojectedtohalvetheirrigatedagriculturaloutputoftheMurray-DarlingBasinregion,whichcurrentlyaccountsfor50%ofAustralia’sirrigatedagriculturaloutputbyvalue(about$7.2billionperyear)[ClimateCouncil]

Counting the costs

Source:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/17/mark-carney-tells-global-banks-they-cannot-ignore-climate-change-dangers

Thereistimetolimitglobalwarmingtobelow1.5degreethreshold

Source: IPCC1.5Degree SpecialReport