Climate Presentation Hyden

Climate, Weather & Farm Decisions

February, 2012Tim Scanlon

Key Messages• Climate and weather are different• Difference between rain and showers• Listen for probabilities• Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc

–Doesn’t matter–Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern–Maximising efficiency

Source: The Armstrong and Miller show, BBC TV

Climate vs. Weather

When positive indicates the subtropical ridge location to the south, thus the more positive the lower the frontal system on WA.

Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au

http://www.bom.gov.au/

Has the climate of WA changed?Short Answer = YES

Rainfall has decreased• Mainly early winter rainfall (May-July).• Sudden decrease in the mid-1970s by about 15-20%.• It was not a gradual decline but more of a switching into an

alternative rainfall regime.• Change in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation.

• Less frequent and less intense frontal systems.• Observed changes fit with the climate models.

• Changes in rainfall are a combination of climate change and seasonal variability.

Temperatures have increased gradually over the last 50 years• Day and night time (i.e. Maxima and Minima).• Particularly in winter and autumn.• Mostly due to climate change.

Source: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative 2005-2006 (Bates, 2008)

http://www.springerlink.com/content/926058287l42120h/

Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com

http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Causes of climate changeGreenhouse gases

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide (NO), Water*(H2O)

• The sunPositive feedback

• Increased H2O (7% per 1oC)

• Reduced ice cover• Oceans cease to be a carbon sink• Permafrost melt (NH4)

• The main greenhouse gases comprise less than 0.5% of the atmosphere.• Without them average global temperature ~ -20oC (not ~14oC).• N and O >99% of the atmosphere.• Water (H2O), CO2, CH4, NO are ~0.44% of the atmosphere.

Isohyets moving south-west

I.e. Move your farm 50km north-east

Source: www.bom.gov.au


Hyden


3 big summers

20% more likelySignificant change

Kulin


2 big summers

14.5% more likelySignificant change

Seasonal Rainfall

Drop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (June loss, 60mm variation)

2001-2011 GSR: 3 drought; 3 dry, 2 average, 1 above average, 1 wet year.GSR = growing season rainfall

Positives?

• We know this is happening–Decision making “easier”

• Soil moisture becomes the key indicator• Last season gave us a lot of information

–Look at what has worked–Water use efficiency–What limitations?

Hyden Temperatures


Significant change

Positives?• Wheat grows better with more CO2

–Offsets other problems like pollution–Only to a certain point……–WUE increases

– Causes greater stress at key periods– Only offsets decreases in yield due to temperature changes (Wang,

1992)

• Food becomes even more important!–Wheat is 21% of the world food (Ortiz 2008)

Greenhouse Gases since 0 (AD)

James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231

EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE

• Less rainfall• Especially winter rainfall

• Higher evaporation rates• Fewer effective rainfall events• Reduced soil moisture and plant available water• Less runoff due to surface water impacts• Effects on plants’ temperature-determined

phenological events (e.g. flowering)

Factors to consider when seeding• The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture)• Stored soil moisture (from summer and early autumn

rain).• The target seeding date (trade-off between getting

seeding done and hitting best range – may lose yield with later sowing)

• Prospect of more rain in the near future• Seasonal outlook (e.g. are there any ENSO strong signals

worth considering?).

The Future

Results from IOCI research for south-west WA projects that relative to 1960-1990 (Bates, 2008):

By 2030• Rainfall will decrease by between 2 to 20 percent;• Temperatures will increase

• Summer between 0.5 to 2.1 degrees C;• Winter between 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C;


• Summer between 1.0 to 6.5 degrees C;• Winter between 1.0 to 5.5 degrees C.

So What Have We Learnt?

Source: David Mitchell's Soapbox, Channelflip.com

http://www.skepticalscience.com http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/PC_94076.html http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/ http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm

Links for more information


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/

http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/PC_94076.html

http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/

http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22



http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm

Actual Changes (past 109 years)



Actual changes

Last 50 years = 0.7oC increase.Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline.

– I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 years.– Climate forcings suggest 5oC increase will occur this

century.

Last natural change was 5oC in 10,000 years.– I.e. 0.05oC per 100 years.

Is it us? Yes, it is.

Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthropogenic effects (purple) to global surface warming (HadCRUT observations shown in light blue), according to Lean and Rind (2008). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com

Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extreme weather. Note also that this doesn't mean there'll be no more cold weather: these cold events will become rarer but will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network

http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap3-3/sap3-3-final-all.pdf

http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/figures/temperature-shift

GasPreindustrial

levelCurrent level

Increase since 1750

Radiative forcing (W/m2)

Carbon dioxide 280 ppm 388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46

Methane 700 ppb 1745 ppb 1045 ppb 0.48

Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 314 ppb 44 ppb 0.15

CFC-12 0 533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17

Total Forcing (CO2Equiv) 450ppm

Gas Formula Contribution (%)

Water Vapor H2O 36 – 72 %

Carbon Dioxide CO2 9 – 26 %

Methane CH4 4 – 9 %

Ozone O3 3 – 7 %

NB: 450 ppm of CO2 equivalents is regarded as the upper “safe” level of greenhouse gases before tipping points occur. (Hansen, 2008)

http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases.

20 70017 20012 300740NF3Nitrogen trifluoride32 60022 80016 3003 200SF6Sulphur hexafluoride18 20012 2008 63010 000C2F6Hexafluoroethane11 2007 3905 21050 000CF4Tetrafluoromethane

5491 8105 16012CHClF2HCFC-225 20010 90011 000100CCl2F2CFC-12153298289114N2ONitrous oxide7.6257212CH4Methane1117-10CO2Carbon dioxide

500-yr100-yr20-yrGlobal warming potential (GWP) for given time horizonLifetime

(years)ChemicalformulaGas name





Source: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential

http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php

CO2 is rising beyond historical levels

Similar to Keeling Curve - 1965

Radiative Forcing (from IPCC 4th Report)

1940 1970 1994Greenhouse gases 0.1 0.38 0.69Sulfate emissions -0.04 -0.19 -0.27Solar forcing 0.18 0.1 0.21Volcanic forcing 0.11 -0.04 -0.14Ozone -0.06 0.05 0.08

Net 0.19 0.17 0.53Observed 0.26 0.21 0.52

Temperature change relative to 1900

Chance of Temperature IncreasesNo Policy Action Policy Action

The possible global temperature changes are indicated on each wheel, with the probabilities of each occurring denoted by the proportion of each wheel. http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/

http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/



Crops vs. TemperatureRice:• Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering.• Flowering 26.5oC to 29.50C.• Ripening/fill between 20oC to 250C.• 35oC for 1 hour at flowering causes sterility.• Yield decline expected (Peng, 2004)Wheat:• Minimum of 3.5-5.50C.• Optimum 20-250C.• Maximum temperature is 350C.• Yield decline expected (Wang, 1992)Source: http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/

Source: http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdf

http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdf

This figure shows the relative fraction of man-made greenhouse gases coming from each of eight categories of sources, as estimated by the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project. These values are intended to provide a snapshot of global annual greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000. The top panel shows the sum over all man-made greenhouse gases, weighted by their global warming potential over the next 100 years. This consists of 72% carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8% nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lower panels show the comparable information for each of these three primary greenhouse gases, with the same colouring of sectors as used in the top chart. Segments with less than 1% fraction are not labelled. http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/greenhouse_gas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_Database_for_Global_Atmospheric_Research

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/global_warming_potential

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/carbon_dioxide

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/methane

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/nitrous_oxide

http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html

http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html

Kaufman et al., Science, 2009, Vol 325, pp 1236-1239

But climate is cooling…


Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuckmann 2009

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JC005237.shtml

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JC005237.shtml

But it was warmer in….

Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)

But it’s the sun…

Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from Solanki, 1979 to 2009 from PMOD). Graphic www.skepticalscience.com

http://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-Myth

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/data/tsi_1611.txt

ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/composite/DataPlots/composite_d41_62_1009.dat



But the sun will be colder….

Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emission scenarios (A1B, red, and A2, magenta). The dashed lines show the slightly reduced warming in case a Maunder-like solar minimum should occur during the 21st century. Source: Feulner, G., and S. Rahmstorf (2010), On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707 Graphic www.skepticalscience.com


But scientists don’t agree…

Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a 2008 Gallup poll.

http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1615/Environment.aspx

But scientists don’t agree…cont

Distribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climate change and unconvinced by the evidence with a given number of total climate publications http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstractGraphic www.skepticalscience.com

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstract


But it used to be cooling…



But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…



But they are models….

Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. (b) represents simulations done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. (c) was done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings Chapter 12 IPCC 3rd report 2001

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-4.htm



But the Antarctic is gaining ice…

Myth brought about by confusion between sea ice

increases and land ice losses in Antarctica.

Ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheet from April 2002 to February 2009. Unfiltered data are blue crosses. Data filtered for the seasonal dependence are red crosses. The best-fitting quadratic trend is shown as the green line (Velicogna 2009). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040222.shtml

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040222.shtml


Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.comSource: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html

• La Nina = warmer seas near Australia• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina

– Get more from change over years

Impact of Carbon Tax

Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reproduced from the Federal Government document Securing a clean energy future http://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp

Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050

http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/securing-a-clean-energy-future/

http://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp

http://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp

Impact of Carbon TaxTable 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020 Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050

Climate, Weather & Farm Decisions

February, 2012Tim Scanlon

Start with facilitated Q&A: What questions do people have about climate, weather, climate change?Key 3 questions from groups of 3-4 people.Discuss and answer questions – depending upon group either just cover the questions and start a group discussion or use as a lead in for presentation.

2



Source: The Armstrong and Miller show, BBC TV

Climate vs. Weather

4



When positive indicates the subtropical ridge location to the south, thus the more positive the lower the frontal system on WA.


http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/understand-climate/weather-and-climate-drivers/western-australiaModule 4 handouts contain weather drivers overviews.Key point is that climate brings weather but that climate is a very complex and interactive mechanism.

6

Has the climate of WA changed?Short Answer = YES

Rainfall has decreased• Mainly early winter rainfall (May-July).• Sudden decrease in the mid-1970s by about 15-20%.• It was not a gradual decline but more of a switching into an

alternative rainfall regime.• Change in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation.

• Less frequent and less intense frontal systems.• Observed changes fit with the climate models.

• Changes in rainfall are a combination of climate change and seasonal variability.

Temperatures have increased gradually over the last 50 years• Day and night time (i.e. Maxima and Minima).• Particularly in winter and autumn.• Mostly due to climate change.

Source: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative 2005-2006 (Bates, 2008)

Available at http://167.30.10.65/pdf/IOCIReport.pdfhttp://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22Bates, 2008: http://www.springerlink.com/content/926058287l42120h/

8

Causes of climate changeGreenhouse gases

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide (NO), Water*(H2O)

• The sunPositive feedback

• Increased H2O (7% per 1oC)

• Reduced ice cover• Oceans cease to be a carbon sink

• Permafrost melt (NH4)

• The main greenhouse gases comprise less than 0.5% of the atmosphere.• Without them average global temperature ~ -20oC (not ~14oC).• N and O >99% of the atmosphere.• Water (H2O), CO2, CH4, NO are ~0.44% of the atmosphere.

Isohyets moving south-west

I.e. Move your farm 50km north-east

Hyden


3 big summers

20% more likelySignificant change

Kulin


2 big summers

14.5% more likelySignificant change

Seasonal Rainfall

Drop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (June loss, 60mm variation)

2001-2011 GSR: 3 drought; 3 dry, 2 average, 1 above average, 1 wet year.GSR = growing season rainfall

14

Positives?

• We know this is happening–Decision making “easier”

• Soil moisture becomes the key indicator• Last season gave us a lot of information

–Look at what has worked–Water use efficiency–What limitations?

15

Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit: NASA/GISS) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/

Hyden Temperatures


Significant change

18

Positives?• Wheat grows better with more CO2

–Offsets other problems like pollution–Only to a certain point……–WUE increases

– Causes greater stress at key periods– Only offsets decreases in yield due to temperature changes (Wang,

1992)

• Food becomes even more important!–Wheat is 21% of the world food (Ortiz 2008)

Wang, 1992: Climate Research Volume 2 pages 131-149 http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/2/c002p131.pdf

Ortiz, 2008: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment Volume 126, Issues 1-2, June 2008, Pages 46-58 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880908000194

Greenhouse Gases since 0 (AD)

20

James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231

Over the last 400,000 years

21

EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE

• Less rainfall• Especially winter rainfall

• Higher evaporation rates• Fewer effective rainfall events• Reduced soil moisture and plant available water• Less runoff due to surface water impacts• Effects on plants’ temperature-determined

phenological events (e.g. flowering)

22

Factors to consider when seeding• The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture)• Stored soil moisture (from summer and early autumn

rain).• The target seeding date (trade-off between getting

seeding done and hitting best range – may lose yield with later sowing)

• Prospect of more rain in the near future• Seasonal outlook (e.g. are there any ENSO strong signals

worth considering?).

23

The Future

Results from IOCI research for south-west WA projects that relative to 1960-1990 (Bates, 2008):


• Summer between 0.5 to 2.1 degrees C;• Winter between 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C;


• Summer between 1.0 to 6.5 degrees C;• Winter between 1.0 to 5.5 degrees C.

Bates, B. C., Hope, P., Ryan, B., Smith, I.Charles, S. 2008 Key findings from the IndianOcean Climate Initiative and their impact onpolicy development in Australia Climate Change(2008) 89:339-354http://www.springerlink.com/content/926058287l42120h/

24

So What Have We Learnt?

Source: David Mitchell's Soapbox, Channelflip.com

http://www.skepticalscience.com http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/PC_94076.html http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/ http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm

Links for more information

Ask for sceptics and reasons why.Alternatively, if already covered in questions at the start, use as a links page.

Actual Changes (past 109 years)


Actual changes

Last 50 years = 0.7oC increase.Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline.

– I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 years.– Climate forcings suggest 5oC increase will occur this

century.

Last natural change was 5oC in 10,000 years.– I.e. 0.05oC per 100 years.

Is it us? Yes, it is.

Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthropogenic effects (purple) to global surface warming (HadCRUT observations shown in light blue), according to Lean and Rind (2008). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com

30

Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extreme weather. Note also that this doesn't mean there'll be no more cold weather: these cold events will become rarer but will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network

Figure 1: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extreme weather. Note also that this doesn't mean there'll be no more cold weather: these cold events will become rarer but will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network

GasPreindustrial

levelCurrent level

Increase since 1750

Radiative forcing (W/m2)

Carbon dioxide 280 ppm 388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46

Methane 700 ppb 1745 ppb 1045 ppb 0.48

Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 314 ppb 44 ppb 0.15

CFC-12 0 533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17

Total Forcing (CO2Equiv) 450ppm

Gas Formula Contribution (%)

Water Vapor H2O 36 – 72 %

Carbon Dioxide CO2 9 – 26 %

Methane CH4 4 – 9 %

Ozone O3 3 – 7 %

NB: 450 ppm of CO2 equivalents is regarded as the upper “safe” level of greenhouse gases before tipping points occur. (Hansen, 2008)

Hansen J, Sato M, et al. (2008) Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, 217-231. http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases.









Source: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php

CO2 is rising beyond historical levels

Similar to Keeling Curve - 1965

Keeling CurveGraphic from Wikipedia, the free encyclopaediaThe Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa ObservatoryThe Keeling Curve is a graph showing the variation in concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1958. It is based on

continuous measurements taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii under the supervision of Charles David Keeling. Keeling's measurements showed the first significant evidence of rapidly increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Many scientists credit Keeling's graph with first bringing the world's attention to the effects that human activity was having on the Earth's atmosphere and climate.[1]

Charles David Keeling, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, was the first person to make frequent regular measurements of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, taking readings at the South Pole and in Hawaii from 1958 onwards.[2]

Prior to Keeling, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was thought to be affected by constant variability. Keeling had perfected the measurement techniques and observed "strong diurnal behaviour with steady values of about 310 ppm in the afternoon" at three locations: (Big Sur near Monterey, the rain forests of Olympic Peninsula and high mountain forests in Arizona).[3] By measuring the ratio of two isotopes of carbon, Keeling attributed the diurnal change to respiration from local plants and soils, with afternoon values representative of the "free atmosphere". By 1960, Keeling and his group established the measurement record that was long enough to see not just the diurnal and seasonal variations, but also a year-on-year increase that roughly matched the amount of fossil fuels burned per year. In the article that made him famous, Keeling observed, "at the South Pole the observed rate of increase is nearly that to be expected from the combustion of fossil fuel".[4]

Mauna Loa measurementsDue to funding cuts in the mid-1960s, Keeling was forced to abandon continuous monitoring efforts at the South Pole, but he

scraped together enough money to maintain operations at Mauna Loa, which have continued to the present day.[5]The measurements collected at Mauna Loa show a steady increase in mean atmospheric CO2 concentration from about 315 parts

per million by volume (ppmv) in 1958 to 385 ppmv as of June 2008.[6][7] This increase in atmospheric CO2 is considered to be largely due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and has been accelerating in recent years. Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, this has significant implications for global warming. Measurements of carbon dioxide concentration in ancient air bubbles trapped in polar ice cores show that mean atmospheric CO2 concentration has historically been between 275 and 285 ppmv during the Holocene epoch (9,000 BCE onwards), but started rising sharply at the beginning of the nineteenth century.[8] However, analyses of stomatal frequency in tree leaves indicate that mean atmospheric CO2 concentration may have reached 320 ppmv during the Medieval Warm Period (800–1300 CE) and 350 ppmv during the early Holocene.[9][10]

Though Mauna Loa is not an active volcano, Keeling and collaborators made measurements on the incoming ocean breeze and above the thermal inversion layer to minimize local contamination from volcanic vents. In addition, the data are normalized to negate any influence from local contamination.[11] Measurements at many other isolated sites have confirmed the long-term trend shown by the Keeling Curve,[12] though no sites have a record as long as Mauna Loa.[13]

The Keeling Curve also shows a cyclic variation of about 5 ppmv in each year corresponding to the seasonal change in uptake of CO2 by the world's land vegetation. Most of this vegetation is in the Northern hemisphere, since this is where most of the land is located. The level decreases from northern spring onwards as new plant growth takes carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis and rises again in the northern fall as plants and leaves die off and decay to release the gas back into the atmosphere.[14]

Due in part to the significance of Keeling's findings,[5] the NOAA began monitoring CO2 levels worldwide in the 1970s. Today, CO2 levels are monitored at about 100 sites around the globe.[1]

Carbon dioxide measurements at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii are made with a type of infrared spectrophotometer(capnograph invented in 1864 by John Tyndall) called a nondispersive infrared sensor[15]

Keeling died in 2005. Supervision of the measuring project was taken over by his son, , a climate science professor at the Scripps Institution.[16]

References^ a b Briggs, Helen (December 1, 2007). "50 years on: The Keeling Curve legacy". BBC News.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7120770.stm. ^ Rose Kahele (October/November 2007). "Behind the Inconvenient Truth". Hana Hou! vol. 10, No. 5. http://

www.hanahou.com/pages/Magazine.asp?Action=DrawArticle&ArticleID=616&MagazineID=39. ^ The Early Keeling Curve. Scripps CO2 Program ^ C. D. Keeling, The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere, Tellus, 12, 200-203, 1960 ^ a b Keeling, Charles D. (1998). "Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth." Annual Review of Energy and the Environment

23: 25-82. ^ Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. ^ Globally averaged marine surface monthly mean data. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. ^ Neftel, A.; Moor, E.; Oeschger, H.; Stauffer, B. (1985). "Evidence from polar ice cores for the increase in atmospheric CO2 in the

past two centuries". Nature 315: 45–47. doi:10.1038/315045a0. ^ Kouwenberg, Lenny; et al. (2005). "Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations during the last millennium reconstructed by stomatal frequency

analysis of Tsuga heterophylla needles". Geology 33 (1): 33–36. doi:10.1130/G20941.1. ^ Wagner, Friederike; et al. (1999). "Century-Scale Shifts in Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentration". Science 284 (5422):

1971–1973. doi:10.1126/science.284.5422.1971. ^ Keeling, Charles D. (1978). "The Influence of Mauna Loa Observatory on the Development of Atmospheric CO2 Research". In

Mauna Loa Observatory: A 20th Anniversary Report. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Special Report, September 1978), edited by John Miller, pp. 36-54. Boulder, CO: NOAA Environmental Research Laboratories.

^ Global Stations CO2 Concentration Trends. Scripps CO2 Program. ^ C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf (October 2004).

"Atmospheric CO2 from Continuous Air Samples at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, U.S.A.". Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-keel-flask/sio-keel-flaskmlo_c.html.

^ http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html Keeling Curve, 2002, University of California, San Diego ^ http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/12/22/science/earth/20101222-carbon/index.html ^ Manier, Jeremy (March 30, 2008). "Researcher's work, at 50, still points to 'inconvenient truth'". Chicago Tribune.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-keeling_bd30mar30,1,376094.story

Radiative Forcing (from IPCC 4th Report)

35

1940 1970 1994Greenhouse gases 0.1 0.38 0.69Sulfate emissions -0.04 -0.19 -0.27Solar forcing 0.18 0.1 0.21Volcanic forcing 0.11 -0.04 -0.14Ozone -0.06 0.05 0.08

Net 0.19 0.17 0.53Observed 0.26 0.21 0.52

Temperature change relative to 1900

This figure, based on Meehl et al. (2004), shows the ability with which a global climate model (the DOE PCM [1]) is able to reconstruct the historical temperature record and the degree to which the associated temperature changes can be decomposed into various forcing factors. The top part of the figure compares a five year average of global temperature measurements (Jones and Moberg 2001) to the Meehl et al. results incorporating the effects of five predetermined forcing factors: greenhouse gases, man-made sulfate emissions, solar variability, ozone changes (both stratospheric and tropospheric), and volcanic emissions (including natural sulfates). The time history and radiative forcing effectiveness for each of these factors was specified in advance and was not adjusted to specifically match the temperature record.Also shown are grey bands indicating the 68% and 95% range for natural variability in the five year average of temperature as determined from multiple simulations with different initial conditions. In other words, the bands indicate the estimated size of fluctuations that are expected to result from changes in weather rather than changes in climate. Ideally the model should be able to reconstruct temperature variations to within about the tolerance specified by these bands. Though the model captures the gross features of twentieth century climate change, it remains likely that some of the differences between model and observation reflect the limitations of the model and/or our understanding of the histories of the observed forcing factors.In the lower portion of the figure are the results of additional simulations in which the model was operated with only one forcing factor at a time. A key conclusion of the Meehl et al. (2004) work is that the model response to all factors combined is approximately equal to the sum of the responses to each of the factors taken individually. They conclude therefore that it is reasonable to discuss how the evolving man-made and natural influences individually impact climate. Meehl et al. attribute most of the 0.52 °C global warming between 1900 and 1994 to a 0.69 °C temperature forcing from greenhouse gases partially offset by a 0.27 °C cooling due to man-made sulfate emissions and with other factors contributing the balance. This contrasts with the warming from 1900 to 1940 for which the model only attributes a net increases of 0.06 °C to the combined effects of greenhouse gases and sulfate emissions. The zeros on both plots are set equal to 1900 temperatures.ReferencesMeehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C.A. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigleym and C. Tebaldi (2004). "Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate". Journal of Climate 17: 3721-3727. Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003). "Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001". Journal of Climate 16: 206-223.

This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from published data. www.globalwarmingart.com

Chance of Temperature IncreasesNo Policy Action Policy Action

The possible global temperature changes are indicated on each wheel, with the probabilities of each occurring denoted by the proportion of each wheel. http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/

38

Crops vs. TemperatureRice:• Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering.• Flowering 26.5oC to 29.50C.• Ripening/fill between 20oC to 250C.• 35oC for 1 hour at flowering causes sterility.• Yield decline expected (Peng, 2004)Wheat:• Minimum of 3.5-5.50C.• Optimum 20-250C.• Maximum temperature is 350C.• Yield decline expected (Wang, 1992)Source: http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/

Peng, 2004: PNAS Vol 101, Issue 27, pages 9971-9975 http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.longWang, 1992: Climate Research Volume 2 pages 131-149 http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/2/c002p131.pdfFurther reading:http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim05/papers/howden.pdfhttp://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdfhttp://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/01-BWheat/$File/01-B%20Wheat.pdfOrtiz, 2008: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment Volume 126, Issues 1-2, June 2008, Pages 46-58 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880908000194

39

Source: http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_yield_drying%20climate.pdf

Further reading: http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/01-BWheat/$File/01-B%20Wheat.pdf

This figure shows the relative fraction of man-made greenhouse gases coming from each of eight categories of sources, as estimated by the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project. These values are intended to provide a snapshot of global annual greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000. The top panel shows the sum over all man-made greenhouse gases, weighted by their global warming potential over the next 100 years. This consists of 72% carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8% nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lower panels show the comparable information for each of these three primary greenhouse gases, with the same colouring of sectors as used in the top chart. Segments with less than 1% fraction are not labelled. http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html

41

Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit: NASA/GISS) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/

42

As seen by the blue point farthest to the right on this graph, 2009 was the warmest year on record in the Southern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NASA/GISS) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/

43

Kaufman et al., Science, 2009, Vol 325, pp 1236-1239

Science 4 September 2009: Vol. 325 no. 5945 pp. 1236-1239 Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic CoolingDarrell S. Kaufman1,, David P. Schneider2, Nicholas P. McKay3, Caspar M. Ammann2, Raymond S. Bradley4, Keith R. Briffa5, Gifford H. Miller6, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner2, Jonathan T. Overpeck3, Bo M. Vinther7 and Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members† + Author Affiliations1School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. 2Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. 3Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. 4Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA. 5Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK. 6Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA. 7Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. *To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: [email protected] AbstractThe temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.


Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuckmann 2009

But it was warmer in….

Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)

Fig. 2. Global surface temperature computed for scenarios A, B, and C (12), compared with two analyses of observational data. The 0.5°C and 1°C temperature levels, relative to 1951–1980, were estimated (12) to be maximum global temperatures in the Holocene and the prior interglacial period, respectively. Hansen and Lebedeff [J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987] Annual mean global surface air temperature computed for scenarios A, B and C. Observational data are an update of the analysis of Hansen and Lebedeff [J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987]. Shaded area is an estimate of the global temperature during the peak of the current interglacial period (the Altithermal, peaking about 6,000 to 10,000 years ago, when we estimate that global temperature was in the lower part of the shaded area) and the prior interglacial period (the Eemian period, about 120,000 years ago, when we estimate that global temperature probably peaked near the upper part of the shaded area). The temperature zero point is the 1951-1980 mean.

Medieval warm period is largely mythical. Yes it was warm during that period, but Greenland has had an icesheet for 400,000 to 800,000 years (at least), and statements that it was warmer then than now is false. This is based upon early incomplete science data sets, thus since collecting more data the historical temperatures have been better understood. Also interesting to note that the skeptics use the first IPCC graphs for this, but won’t use the more complete graphs.

Altithermal = A dry postglacial interval centered about 5500 years ago during which temperatures were warmer.Eemian = The Eemian was an interglacial period which began about 130,000 years ago and ended about 114,000 years ago. It was the second-to-latest interglacial period of the current Ice Age, the most recent being the Holocene which extends to the present day. The prevailing Eemian climate is believed to have been similar to that of the Holocene. The Eemian is also known as the Sangamonian Stage in North America, the Ipswichian Stage in the UK, Mikulin interglacial in East European Plain, the Valdivia interglacial in Chile and the Riss-Würm interglacial in the Alps.Holocene = The Holocene is a geological epoch which began 11,700 years ago[1] (around 10 000 14C years ago). According to traditional geological thinking, the Holocene continues to the present. The Holocene is part of the Quaternary period. Its name comes from the Greek words ὅλος (holos, whole or entire) and καινός (kainos, new), meaning "entirely recent". It has been identified with the current warm period, known as MIS 1, and can be considered an interglacial in the current ice age.

Human civilization, in its most widely used definition, dates entirely within the Holocene. The word anthropocene is sometimes used to describe the time period from when humans have had a significant impact on the Earth's climate and ecosystems to the present.

47

But it’s the sun…

Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from Solanki, 1979 to 2009 from PMOD). Graphic www.skepticalscience.com


http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htm http://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-Myth

Sceptic commentsIt's the sun: "Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer. The data suggests solar activity is influencing the global climate causing the world to get warmer."What the science says...In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions Until about 1960, measurements by scientists showed that the brightness and warmth of the sun, as seen from the Earth, was increasing. Over the same period temperature measurements of the air and sea showed that the Earth was gradually warming. It was not surprising therefore for most scientists to put two and two together and assume that it was the warming sun that was increasing the temperature of our planet.However, between the 1960s and the present day the same solar measurements have shown that the energy from the sun is now decreasing. At the same time temperature measurements of the air and sea have shown that the Earth has continued to become warmer and warmer. This proves that it cannot be the sun; something else must be causing the Earth's temperature to rise. So, while there is no credible science indicating that the sun is causing the observed increase in global temperature, it's the known physical properties of greenhouse gasses that provide us with the only real and measurable explanation of global warming.

Bit more:As supplier of almost all the energy in Earth's climate, the sun has a strong influence on climate. A comparison of sun and climate over the past 1150 years found temperatures closely match solar activity (Usoskin 2005). However, after 1975, temperatures rose while solar activity showed little to no long-term trend. This led the study to conclude, "...during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source."In fact, a number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, over the same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been moving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influence in recent decades (Lockwood 2008). Figure 1: Annual global temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving average of temperature (thick dark red). Temperature from NASA GISS. Annual Total Solar Irradiance (thin light blue) with 11 year moving average of TSI (thick dark blue). TSI from 1880 to 1978 from Solanki. TSI from 1979 to 2009 from PMOD.Other studies on solar influence on climateThis conclusion is confirmed by many studies finding that while the sun contributed to warming in the early 20th Century, it has had little contribution (most likely negative) in the last few decades:Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to solar activity is 14% of the observed global warming." Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980." Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%." Lean 2008: "According to this analysis, solar forcing contributed negligible long-term warming in the past 25 years and 10% of the warming in the past 100 years..."

Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings." Ammann 2007: "Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century." Lockwood 2007: "The observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanism is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified." Foukal 2006 concludes "The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years." Scafetta 2006 says "since 1975 global warming has occurred much faster than could be reasonably expected from the sun alone." Usoskin 2005 conclude "during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source." Solanki 2004 reconstructs 11,400 years of sunspot numbers using radiocarbon concentrations, finding "solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades". Haigh 2003 says "Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects." Stott 2003 increased climate model sensitivity to solar forcing and still found "most warming over the last 50 yr is likely to have been caused by increases in greenhouse gases." Solanki 2003 concludes "the Sun has contributed less than 30% of the global warming since 1970." Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970." Waple 1999 finds "little evidence to suggest that changes in irradiance are having a large impact on the current warming trend." Frolich 1998 concludes "solar radiative output trends contributed little of the 0.2°C increase in the global mean surface temperature in the past decade."

But the sun will be colder….

Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emission scenarios (A1B, red, and A2, magenta). The dashed lines show the slightly reduced warming in case a Maunder-like solar minimum should occur during the 21st century. Source: Feulner, G., and S. Rahmstorf (2010), On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707 Graphic www.skepticalscience.com

But scientists don’t agree…

Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a 2008 Gallup poll.

But scientists don’t agree…cont

Distribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climate change and unconvinced by the evidence with a given number of total climate publications http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstractGraphic www.skepticalscience.com

But it used to be cooling…


But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…


53

But they are models….

Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. (b) represents simulations done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. (c) was done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings Chapter 12 IPCC 3rd report 2001

Also use Sir David Attenborough’s video to support this.

But the Antarctic is gaining ice…

Myth brought about by confusion between sea ice

increases and land ice losses in Antarctica.

Ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheet from April 2002 to February 2009. Unfiltered data are blue crosses. Data filtered for the seasonal dependence are red crosses. The best-fitting quadratic trend is shown as the green line (Velicogna 2009). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com

Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.comSource: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html

• La Nina = warmer seas near Australia• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina

– Get more from change over years

Impact of Carbon Tax

Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reproduced from the Federal Government document Securing a clean energy future http://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp

Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050

Impact of Carbon TaxTable 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020 Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050

Climate Presentation Hyden

Documents

Transcript of Climate Presentation Hyden