Climate Impacts on Ranching, Farming and Natural Resources...
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Climate Impacts on Ranching, Farming and Natural Resources in the Northern Plains Justin D. Derner [email protected] Director of USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub Rangeland Resources Research Unit, Cheyenne, WY and Fort Collins, CO
Transcript of Climate Impacts on Ranching, Farming and Natural Resources...
Climate Impacts on Ranching,
Farming and Natural Resources in
the Northern Plains
Justin D. Derner
Director of USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub
Rangeland Resources Research Unit, Cheyenne, WY and Fort Collins, CO
Northern Great Plains EcosystemsGrazing X drought X fire interactions
Precipitation
Temperature
Precipitation Gradient
East-west
precipitation
gradient is
substantial (from
3 to 24 days of
precipitation
with >0.5 inch in
about 800 miles).
Precipitation change (from 1991) relative to 1900-1960
Substantial
increase in
precipitation
across eastern
part of Northern
Plains.
Inter-annual Precipitation
High inter-
annual
variability in
precipitation
in Northern
Plains (data
from north-
central
Colorado).
High intra-
annual
variability in
precipitation
in Northern
Plains (data
from north-
central
Colorado).
Intra-annual Precipitation
Forage Production at Cheyenne, WY
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fo
rag
e P
rod
uc
tio
n (
po
un
ds
/ac
re)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mean: 1279
Forage Production Variability
Difficulty for
ranchers is
matching this
forage
production
variability
with animal
management
flexibility
across years.
Season-long
precip (mm)
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
precip (mm)
Pe
ak
sta
nd
ing
cro
p (
kg
ha
-1)
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
April + May + June precipitation (mm)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Short-Duration
Light
Moderate
Heavy Heavy
Moderate
y = 3692x / (226 + x)
r2 = 0.62
P = 0.0005
y = 3107x / (266 + x)
r2 = 0.54
P = 0.0017
y = 3393x / (316 + x)
r2 = 0.67
P = 0.0002
y = 3333x / (306 + x)
r2 = 0.67
P = 0.0002
y = 4009x / (354 + x)
r2 = 0.59
P = 0.0008
Derner and Hart 2007, REM
Decent predictive
relationships
between forage
production and
spring precipitation
in Northern Plains,
but forecasting
current spring
precipitation remains
problematic.
Predictive Forage Relationships
10
20
30
40
50
Va
ria
tio
n i
n p
ea
k s
tan
din
g c
rop
ex
pla
ine
d b
y m
on
thly
pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
%)
10
20
30
40
50
Month
Apr May Jun
10
20
30
40
50
Light
Moderate
Heavy
Derner and Hart 2007, REM
Precipitation Importance: Management
Importance of timing
of spring precipitation
for forage production
in the Northern Plains
depends on prior
history of grazing
management.
Livestock Production: Precipitation
Grazing Intensity
Heavy Moderate Light
LH
P (
kg
/ha)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Wet (457.6 mm)
Median (265.6 mm)
Dry (169.8 mm)
Dry With Dry Spring (169.1 mm)
a
a
a
b
b
b
a
ab
ab
B.
c
c
c
Derner et al, in review
Dry springs
more influential
on livestock
production than
wet years
across grazing
management
strategies.
Cattle moving from Southern Plains
to Northern Plains
Adaptive Management
• Enterprise flexibility in
stocking rates, time/season of
grazing, type/species of animal
and rest to achieve desired
outcomes in landscape
• Flexible stocking with high
quality precipitation forecasts
could double economic
returns• Torell et al. 2010 Rangeland Ecology
and Management 63:415-425.
Recent/Projected Climatic Changes
Third National Climate Assessment:
Droughts, Deluges and Extreme Events
Longer and
warmer
growing
seasons,
with warmer
nights, but
not drier in
Northern
Plains.
Northern Plains
expected to have
wetter winters,
springs, and
falls, and slightly
drier summers.
Water table depth changes
in Ogallala aquifer from
predevelopment to 2011.
Slight increases in
Nebraska.
Substantial declines in
western Great Plains.
Expanding corn and
soybean acreage, with
less wheat and hay in
the Plains states.
Midwest also has
expanding corn
acreage.
Substantial acreage
increases of corn and
soybeans in eastern North
and South Dakota, at
expense of wheat and
grassland/hayland.
Irrigation has increased
stability of crop production,
but concerns with aquifer
declines and changes in
timing/amounts of snowfall
runoff, are leading to efforts to
get more “crop per drop”.
Assist Ranchers, Farmers and Forest Land
Managers with Decision-making
Key Thrust
• The Hub will deliver science-
based knowledge and
practical information to
farmers, ranchers, and
forest landowners that will
help them to adapt to weather
variability by coordinating
with local and regional
partners in Federal and state
agencies, NGO’s, private
companies, and Tribes.
Key Approach
• Conduct the transfer of information, tools
and management practices to agricultural
producers to enhance decision making
with weather variability for reduction of
enterprise risk and increased resilience of
working lands.
Stakeholders and Stakeholder groups: Farmers / Ranchers / Forest Managers Tribes / State Land Managers / Federal Land Managers /
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives/ Others
State Agricultural
Extension
USDA Service Centers
eXtensionForest Service Threat Centers
Many others
USDA Intramural funded Research
(ARS/FS/ERS/NRCS)
USDA Extramural funded Research
(NIFA)
Info
rmat
ion
an
d t
oo
ls
Qu
est
ion
s an
d fe
ed
bac
k
NOAA Regional Integrated
Sciences and Assessments
Links with other Hubs & National Coordinator
Science Coordination,Synthesis, and
Tools
Agricultural Experiment
Stations
Others
?
Conceptual Framework for a USDA Regional Climate Hub
Technology Transfer providers:
Science and Technology providers:
USGS Climate Science Center
Federal Partners Non-Federal Partners
CLIMATE HUB
Technical Support and Decision Tools
Regional Climate Hubs Will Provide:
http://www.fs.fed/us/ccrc/
Regional Climate Hubs Will Provide:
Assessments/Forecasts
Third National Climate Assessment
Clear need for
reliable weather
forecasting on
time scales
relevant for
agricultural
decision making
(3-6 months to
several years).
Regional Climate Hubs Will Provide:
Outreach/Education
Conduct
retrospective/prospective
efforts to garner feedback from
agricultural producers.
Questions?
Justin Derner: [email protected]
Linda Joyce: [email protected]
Rafael Guerrero: [email protected]
