ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD

SECURITY

Dan Kiambi, Fassil Kebebew, Maria D. Bij de

Vaate, John Yumbya and KPC Rao

Institute of Biodiversity Conservation

Presentation for the IDRC,

ESARO

20th September 2012

Outline of the presentation

Overall impacts of climate change on

agriculture

The project

Main objective

Specific objectives

Methodology

Key results of the study

Conclusions and recommendations

Building on the study

Overall climate change effects on agriculture

Changes in geographic ranges of crops, pests

and disease

Occurrence of new crops and livestock

diseases and pests

Re-distribution of crops, variation in yields and

loss of their genetic diversity

Adverse effects on agro-biodiversity leading to

large scale extinctions of wild relatives of crop

plants

ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY

Project started in November 2010

Partners: ABCIC, IBC, CIAT and ICRISAT

Case study crop was Teff

Long history of cultivation

Associated with strong cultural practices

Geographic distinctiveness

Funding from IDRC

Major objective

Study the likely effects of climate change on

distribution and genetic diversity of teff in order

to guide scientific, policy and farm level

interventions as well as draw inferences and

implications for food security

Project objectives

Specific objectives

To assess the potential geographic shifts in

distribution of teff

To assess the loss of diversity in teff as a

consequence of climate change

To document and evaluate the climate

change adaptation and coping strategies by

farmers in the pilot areas

Specific objectives

To assess socio-economic impacts and

scientific and policy implications for food

security

To sensitize policy makers and stakeholders

on climate change concerns through effective

communication and dissemination of the

project findings

Collection of teff data

A total of 1441 geo-referenced data points from

gene bank records and herbarium specimens

were collected from the Institute of Biodiversity

Conservation and National Herbarium of the

Addis Ababa University

Yield data records included 23 sample points

describing altitude, latitude, longitude and teff

yield

Methodology

Collection of climate data

Climate conditions both current (1950-2010) and future (~2050) were obtained from WorldClim

Bioclimatic variables for each of the 23 yield data points were extracted from the climatic datasets using DIVA-GIS software (Version 5.2).

Methodology

Suitability Index and teff yield

The model was run in DIVA-GIS. The output

from the model was transformed into presence/

absence data by assigning presence to the

areas where scores were within 2.5 – 97.5

percentile range

The scores for each pixel were the suitability

indexes

Yield points were converted to shapefiles using

ArcGIS 9.3 and overlaid on the suitability grids

Methodology

Socio-economic survey

Developed to increase our understanding about

agricultural activities and associated changes in

the study districts Gimbichu, Minjar and Bora

Climatic changes observed

Impacts of changes as perceived by farmers

Challenges faced

Mitigation efforts of negative effects of climate

changes

Methodology

Study Area

The study area

included Bora,

Minjar Shenkora

and Gimbichu

located in

central Ethiopia

300 respondents

(100 per site)

Methodology

Current teff occurrence in Ethiopia in relation

to rainfall (left) and temperature (right)

KEY RESULTS OF THE STUDY

Change in rainfall and temp over the past 7 yrs as

perceived by respondents in the three districts Bora* Gimbichu* Minjar*

** n +/- + - n +/- + - n +/- + -

Amount of rain 100 100 99 6 35 59 100 7 13 80

Frequency of rain

showers 100 100 97 4 35 61 100 10 8 82

Distribution of rainfall

in the year 100 100 97 15 19 66 99 9 8 83

Number of dry months

in a year 100 98 2 89 39 52 9 94 6 61 33

Occurence of droughts 100 52 25 23 73 47 14 40 78 50 22 28

Occurence of floods 100 22 68 10 76 43 36 21 81 74 5 21

Water availability 100 19 81 96 2 25 73 100 16 28 56

Water stress 100 18 81 1 95 1 49 49 98 18 34 48

Length of the growing

season 100 3 97 85 28 34 36 97 14 8 77

Temperature 100 99 1 98 7 80 13 98 5 81 14

Number of hot days 100 98 2 94 14 74 12 95 6 80 14

Occurence of heat

waves 100 3 97 0 75 48 41 11 83 60 30 10

* Rates in percentage % of respondents (n)

** +/- no change + increase - decrease

Most rapid changes observed by respondents

in the three districts over the last 7 years

Bora

(n=100)

Gimbichu

(n=100)

Minjar

(n=99)

Less rainfall 98 (1) 90 (1) 69 (2)

Decreased reliability of

rainfall 64 (4) 66 (3) 42 (5)

Temperature increase 82 (2) 28 (5) 61 (4)

More floods 12 0 2

Increased failure of crops 30 0 4

Increased weeds and pests 60 (5) 73 (2) 12

Less forest cover,

environmental degradation 82 (2) 66 (3) 65 (3)

Less wildlife 19 28 (5) 74 (1)

Rates in percentage % of respondents (n)

Between brackets is the ranking of most

rapid changes in the district

From a list of 38 issues (12

climatic related, 8

environmental, 11

agricultural and 7 socio-

economic)

For Minjar the changes in rainfall and temperature were mentioned

often among the five most rapid changes observed, but less often than

in Bora

Cereal crop failures due to drought in the three

districts

Average

number of crop

failures due to

drought during

last 5 yrs

Specified crop failure for respondents who lost

crops to droughts*

teff barley wheat maize sorghum

Bora 2.5 (n=100) 43 20 68 96 22

Gimbichu 0.0 (n=1) 0 0 1 0 0

Minjar 1.4 (n=85) 61 59 89 34 31

* rates in percentage % of respondents (n)

In Bora all respondents reported to have suffered crop failures due to

droughts.

Current (left) and future (right) potential distribution of

Eragrostis teff in Ethiopia

Current (left) and future (right) predicted teff yields

Drop in teff yield production in tonnes per hectare

by the year 2050

Severe drop in yield will be

experienced in the areas

marked in red - This shows a change of

0.46 tonnes/ha and above

Implications of climate change on teff production

The model confirmed future teff distribution changes

and yields reductions due to climatic changes

Average loss of approximately 24% (236,975.65

Km²) of the current suitable area for teff by

approximately the year 2050

With a change in the species climatic envelope, the

species will only be suitable to temperatures of up to

27°C and a low of 15 °C

Socio-economic impacts of climate change

Biophysical results projected into an economic analysis

Production of a national assessment of tef production

and food security under climate change

Simple calculations used to evaluate consequent

changes in national tef production and tef prices

Alarming results

Socio-economic impacts of climate change

Effects of climate change on yields predict a loss of

0.46 tons/ha

A reduction of 1,190,784 tons in the national

production

Estimated economic loss of US$650,961,954 based

on farm gate prices

A loss of US$730,347,581 based on current market

prices

Conclusions and Recommendations

Recommendations on strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation by farmers in the three districts

Bora* (n=100) Gimbichu*

(n=100) Minjar* (n=100)

Consultation of the local community by

government 14 4 7

Awareness on climate change 18 (3) 46 (2) 16

Conservation and management of forests 59 (1) 26 12

Law enforcement regarding forest

conservation 33 (2) 1 3

Improve agricultural development policies 17 13 23 (3)

Address land tenure issues 3 0 1

Address high costs of inputs 2 1 21

New technologies 18 67 (1) 43 (2)

Improve access to technologies and

innovations 2 7 8

Research and Development 0 1 6

Soil conservation 15 22 6

Water conservation 6 30 (3) 9

Development of infrastructure 0 0 44 (1)

* rates in percentage of respondents (n)

Between brackets is the ranking of most popular action

points in the district

Proposed interventions

Local level interventions

Farmers should get better access to new technologies and knowledge,

and moreover be encouraged to diversify crop varieties

A change of mindset among farmers is needed for them to adopt new

technologies and crop varieties

An integrated approach in the application of climate change mitigation

and adaptation strategies is needed at the community level

.

Proposed interventions

Scientific interventions

Identification and isolation of valuable local

varieties characteristics

Crop improvement to develop “climate ready

varieties”

Streamlining seed distribution systems to improve

access to “climate ready” seeds

Integrated community level approaches (including

indigenous knowledge) in the development of

climate change mitigation and adaptation

technologies/strategies

Proposed interventions

Policy interventions

Strengthening current development initiatives to

support climate change adaptation/mitigation

Mainstreaming climate change

adaptation/mitigation into development planning in

the different economic sectors

Undertaking new investments in agricultural

research targeting climate change issues

Enforcement of laws and policies that impact on

climate change mitigation and adaptation

Policy interventions Empowering and improving the capacities of farmers

to respond to climate change

Supporting the development and dissemination of agricultural technologies targeted towards mitigation and adaptation of climate change

Integrate local indigenous knowledge systems and traditional decision making frameworks and mechanisms within the national climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies

Proposed interventions

Building on this study

TITLE : ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

SORGHUM IN KENYA: FOOD SECURITY IN A CHANGING

ENVIRONMENT

1. Replicate and refine the methodologies used in the previous study

2. Develop a yield index for sorghum which has not been done yet

3. Better options and opportunities for awareness (public and policy)

4. Better opportunities for policy dialogue

5. Use of lessons learnt in project design and implementation