Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water Resource Management
description
Transcript of Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water Resource Management
Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for
Thailand Water Resource Management
Porranee ThanapakpawinSurajate Boonya-Aroonnet
Pintip VajarothaiAungkana Pratumthong
Royol Chitradon
Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII)Ministry of Science and Technology, Thailand
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• The changing water situation: Impacts from Climate change
• Management challenges
• Framework for technology needs assessment
• Prioritized adaptation technologies
Content
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1950-1997 average 1,374 mm./year
2001-2010 annual rainfall anomaly (mm)compared to 1950-1997 average
Rainfall has been above average in the past decade
Greater inter-annual variability compared to past
(38.7) (58.5) (36.1) (39.3) (80.9) (19.2) (145.7) (mm/month)Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
mm
Monthly rainfall map: Marchcompared to 1950-1997 average
Greater change of monthly rainfall – timing, location, and intensity (e.g. Season change)
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(174.1) (196.4) (270.5) (204.2) (209.9) (111.0) (212.0)
Monthly rainfall map: Maycompared to 1950-1997 average
Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
mm
(mm/month)
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(219.2) (244.8) (219.2) (187.6) (197.3) (299.8) (288.8)
Monthly rainfall map: Augustcompared to 1950-1997 average
mmAverage 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (mm/month)
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(236.0) (248.7) (233.1) (268.5) (227.2) (222.4) (314.9)
Monthly rainfall map: Septembercompared to 1950-1997 average
mm
(mm/month)Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Source: Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Several areas experience both flood & drought problems
Flood risk (left) and drought risk (right) areas
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Photo: Channel 3
Photo taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet
Photo: thairath.co.th 9
Thailand 2011 FloodPhoto taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet
Source: Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
El Nino and La Nina alternates more frequently.
Expect higher climate variability
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) linked to Climate change
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ท่ีมา: IPCC (2551)
Project increased rainfall
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Future projection of 2090-2099 annual runoff, relative to 1980-1999
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Only 6% of rainfall is collected in large reservoirs High inter-annual reservoir inflow variability (19% nation-wide, 20-30% regionally) Only 13% of agricultural areas is irrigated
Management challenges: Thailand Water Infrastructure
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Goal of Thailand WRM &our technology needs
• Solve both flood & drought problems together• Build water security for all user sectors
- Macro level: Irrigated agriculture, Industry, Urban areas- Micro level: Rain-fed agriculture
• Targets of technology needs:- Secure capitol water supply through storage &
distribution- Build management flexibility in all climate & demand
scenarios- Minimize disaster risks & impacts- Build knowledge/know-how and data
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Framework for prioritizing “adaptation” technologies
Objectives
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Technology Group
Analyze from output/outcom
e
(High Impact) (Low Impact)
Analyze from SWOT
Criteria
Funding sourceInternal funding
Domestic developmentHigh
ImpactHigh
SWOTHigh/Low
Impact
LowSWOT
Mul
ti C
riter
iaPr
iorit
ized
Tech
nolo
gyThe process for technology
prioritization
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Rev
iew
pos
sibl
e te
chno
logi
es
External funding/Technology transfer
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Technology needs for macro-management
Reservoir 4
Reservoir 6
Reservoir 5
Reservoir 3
Reservoir 2
Pond 1
Reservoir 1
Long-range weather forecast (3-7 months)
Flood sensorweb(Event detection, monitoring, and decision support system )
Networking of water infrastructures & management
Rainfall
Now 2 month 4 month
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Community Water Resource Management (CWRM):
Secure water through integrated supply and demand management
Application of science, technology & innovation Knowledge management Capacity & collaborative network building
18*collected from 15 households in 2009
Success story of CWRM in a village in NE Thailand
Yearly Family Data*
(Thai Baht)
Before 2007 2008(with
CWRM)
2009(with
Integrated Farming)
2010(CWRM + Integrated Farming)
INCOME 103,000 1,544,764 2,227,354 2,474,234 4,079,354• Rice Field 103,000 417,850 621,060 973,630 844,370• Farming - 917,271 640,500 437,220 1,257,800• Integrated farming - 209,643 965,794 1,063,384 1,977,184
Expenditure 114,000 693,496 1,067,451 890,341 1,479,606
Net Income -11,000 851,268 1,159,903 1,583,893 2,599,747
Accumulating debt decreased from 2.6 million THB to 1.84 million THB in 2009
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Summary• Goal of Thailand WRM: Water & agricultural
security• Technology needs: Flexible infrastructures &
Better management: planning , operation & disaster management
• Macro-management: - Networking of water infrastructures &
management - Long-range weather forecast (3-7 months) - Flood sensorweb
• Micro-management: CWRM as a key risk-based adaptation approach to cope with climate variability & build sustainable agriculture
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Telemeter data
Remote sensing/
GIS
Oceanic data
Risk assessment
Network & Clustering
Users
Disaster management
Flash flood & landslide warning
Water flow network
Survey/observation
Forecasting/Modeling
Operation
Planning
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Integration of technology useReservoir networking