Climate Change in Viet Nam & the Threat to Human Security

What This Presentation is Based Upon….

Summarises work done by Oxfam & UNDP in Viet Nam earlier this year

Background research for the UN Human Development Report 2007 ‘Climate change and human development – risk and vulnerability in a warming world’

Much that we still don’t know about climate change in Viet Nam & potential impacts…..

And the headlines…..

WB (2007) study - Viet Nam one of the top 5 countries most at risk from sea level rise

1 metre rise could reduce GDP by 10%, 3-5 metre rise ‘potentially catastrophic’

22 million people could be displaced CC about more than just sea level rise – variability &

intensity of climate related weather events seem to be increasing

The rural poor are most at risk – heavily reliant upon (climate vulnerable) natural resources

Local collective traditions changing as wealth increases – better-off better able to cope, unclear where this leaves the poor

Vulnerability to Natural Disasters by Region

1991 – 2000: 8,000+ people killed by natural disasters, 9,000 boats sunk, 6 million houses destroyed (CCFSC 2001)

Typology of Climate Related Natural Hazards by Region in Viet Nam Region of Viet Nam Disaster Zone Principle Disaster Hazards

Northern Uplands Flash floods, landslides, earthquakes North Red River Delta Monsoon river floods, typhoons, coastal

storm surges Central Coast Provinces

Typhoons, storm surges, flash floods, drought, saline water intrusion

Centre

Central Highlands Flash floods, landslides South Mekong River Delta River flooding, typhoons, high tides and

storm surges, salt water intrusion (Source: CCFSC)

Coastal zone vulnerability acute – quarter of the total population, nearly 60% dependent upon agriculture, fishing & aquaculture

Climate Change Trends & Predictions: Temperature & Rainfall

1900- 2000, avg annual temps increased by 0.1°C per decade

Predicted that temps will increase 1.4-1.5°C by 2050 and 2.5-2.8°C by 2100

Changes in rainfall patterns season and region specific but expected to increase 2.5-4.8% by 2050, and 4.7- 8.8% by 2100

Annual rainfall already decreasing in July & August and increasing in Sept- October

CC set to make rainfall more uneven and variable over time and space

Climate Change Trends & Predictions: Floods, Drought & Typhoons

Rainfall variability will intensify problems of flood and drought

Coast highly vulnerable to flooding, particularly in the Mekong and Red River Deltas

Floods appear to be intensifying, though may reflect increased settlement, cultivation & infrastructure

Viet Nam in the top 10 of countries most vulnerable to tropical cyclones (avg 6.9 per year)

Intensity seems to be increasing (Damrey, Chanchu) Peak month shifted from August in the 1950s, to

November in the 1990s

Sea Level Rise

HydroMet Dept estimates seawater level is rising at an average 2mm per year

Predictions for the future differ – national experts predicting up to 1m by 2100, but IPCC estimate 28-58cm to 2100 (3-6mm p/y) though there are different scenarios…..

Viet Nam particularly vulnerable with the concentration of industry & agric in the low-lying delta regions

Impacts on Agriculture, Fisheries & Aquaculture 30cm sea level rise would increase Mekong

tributaries salinity 10km inland Agric also threatened by drought & typhoons Could have significant impact on rice production for

export, & food security Temp increases too could affect growing periods,

yields, crop calendars & crop distribution Wild fisheries will be impacted – less higher

commercial value catch & fish body mass affected by decrease in plankton

Loss of fish habitat – coral reefs and mangrove Aquaculture prod. threatened by sea water intrusion

All Occurring Within a Changing Socio-Economic Context……

Transition from centrally planned, to market economy behind Viet Nam’s recent success

Has, though, resulted in the privatisation of what was formerly ‘the commons’ (ie. mangrove) with impacts upon the poor, and CC protection

A changing role for the state (ie. local taxes and hired workers over household labour contributions)

Open question is whether decollectivisation erodes community solidarity & thus communal risk management/ protection for the poor when faced with natural disasters?

Do the state & mass organisations fill the gaps?

And now, the good news!

Viet Nam well placed to respond to the challenge of climate change

GoV recognises the importance of the climate change threat (ratified UNFCCC in 1994, Kyoto Protocol in 2002)

There is state capacity to take meaningful action

Much more, though, needs to be done…. INC to UNFCCC in 2003 (but no specific

progs, largely qualitative), SNC due in 2009

Institutional Responsibility for Climate Change Response

National focal agency – MoNRE Technical experts across ministries to assist in

implementing climate change projects CC adaptation measures included in recent

laws and strategies (ie. Nat St. for Env Protect. 2005)

2006 ISGE established CC adaptation working group

Climate Change focal point the Vice Minister of MoNRE

Well Established Disaster Risk Management Strategies

Long standing institutional response system for natural disasters (floods, typhoons)

Coordinated by the CCFSC Local level Committees for Flood & Storm

Control (CFSC) – coordinate flood & storm measures, organise dyke protection, flood recovery

VNRC, Fatherland Front (key role in the 2000 & 2001 Mekong floods)

Other initiatives like the Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership (NDM-P) between Govt, donors, NGOs

BUT… Mainstreaming & Integrating Adaptation Measures Currently Weak

2nd National Strategy for Disaster Mitigation & Management (2001-20) comprehensive

But is designed to address short-term climate extremes, not long term climate change

Focuses upon emergency response and reconstruction, rather than risk prevention and adaptation

Lack of integration between DRR policies and wider policies of rural development & poverty reduction

Traditional Disaster Response Measures……

Extensive systems of dykes (5,000km river dykes, 3,000km sea dykes)

Monitored 24 hours a day during typhoon season

Disaster warning – linking of meteorological data services and media

National typhoon warning system (48 hours) Vinasat satellite data available from 2008

….. And Recent Climate Change Adaptation Measures

Emphasis upon ‘Living with the floods’ after 2000/01 floods in Mekong Delta (fields and forests to store flood water, safe settlement areas, flood proof schools, day care centres)

Safer housing projects (CECI & DW), ecosystem management (IUCN), awareness raising & capacity building (VNRC/NRC) & reforestation through the CDM (VNRC/SNV)

In agric: changing seed varieties and crops, short duration temp. resistant seeds, temp resistant shrimp breeds, diversification to small scale enterprises, drought resistant fodder crops and new animal breeds

Conclusion: Responding to the Climate Change Challenge

Adaptation to CC dependent upon people’s entitlements to access & use resources

Reducing poverty still the best way to ensure human security – enabling those most at risk to adapt their livelihoods

Integrated and comprehensive national and local level adaptation strategies needed

CC needs to be factored in to all strategies for ensuring continued economic growth and poverty reduction

Vietnam in a strong moral position to lead demands for binding cuts by major polluters