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IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India

Climate Change impacts and Measures to develop

National Adaptation Plan in Japan

17th December, 2013

Yoshihiro MizutaniOffice of International Strategy on Climate Change,

Global Environment BureauMinistry of the Environment, Japan (MOEJ)


Contents

1. Climate Change Impacts in Japana. Temperatureb. Precipitationc. Heavy Rain Disasterd. Habitat Change to the Northe. Agriculture

2. Past Countermeasures for Adaptation to Climate Change by Ministry of the Environment, Japan

3. Planning and Implementation of adaptation plan4. Three Basic Concepts of National Adaptation Plan5. Steps towards Adaptation Plan

2


Climate change and future prospect in JapanRise of average temperature (1.15 degree during this 100 years)Rise by 2.1-4.0 degree by the end of 21st century, compared with 1980-99(prediction using scenario and model in IPCC AR4)

1. Climate Change Impacts in Japana. Temperature (1/2)

Meteorological Agency(2012) MEXT, MA, MOE, Japan(2009)

3

Deviation of annual average temperature in Japan

1.15℃/100yrs

Diff

eren

ce fr

om 1

981-

2010

ave

rage

tem

pera

ture

(℃)

Aver

age

tem

pera

ture

rise

in J

apan

(℃)

Observed Value


1. Climate Change Impacts in Japana. Temperature (2/2)2010 summer- Average temperature in Japan in summer was the highest since 1898.- Average temperature in North and East Japan in summer was the highest since 1946.- Average temperature in from north to west Japan in August was the highest since 1946.

2013summer- Average temperature in west Japan in summer was the highest since 1946.- 41 ℃ (day time) was recorded as the highest temperature in Japan since 1946 .

The number of patients* suffered from heat stroke

Reference: National Institute for Environmental Studies (2012) *Patients in 20major cities or districts in Japan

13,579

2,468

11,065

23 wards of Tokyo

5232712

33702182

3,190

10,357

15,180

(※) preliminary

4


Frequency; >50mm/hour/year

1. Climate Change Impacts in Japanb. Precipitation (1/2)

Meteorological Agency(2012)

Frequency; >80mm/hour/year

changing compared with recent years

5

Dev

iatio

n fr

om 1

981-

2010

an

nual

ave

rage

pre

cipi

tatio

n (m

m)

Freq

uenc

y o

f clo

ud b

urst

per

1,0

00

obse

rvat

ion

poin

t

Freq

uenc

y o

f clo

ud b

urst

per

1,0

00

obse

rvat

ion

poin

t


1. Climate Change Impacts in Japanb. Precipitation (2/2)

Meteorological Agency(2012)

Typhoon No.12-August 30-September 6, 2011-1,652.5mm/72hr, totally 1814.5mm at Kamikitayama village (Nara prefecture)-Flood, mudslide, traffic hazard-68 dead, 16 missing in Wakayama, Nara, Mie prefecture

Typhoon No.15-September 15-22, 2011-Totally 1128.0mm at Misato-cho (Miyazaki prefecture), 30.5m/s wind at Edogawa-ku (Tokyo)-Flood, mudslide, blackout, traffic hazard-12 dead, 3 missing in Miyagi, Shizuoka, Aichi prefecture

Heavy rain in Northern part of Kyushu-July 11-14, 2012 -108mm/hour, 507.5mm/day at maximum at Aso city-Flood, debris flows, blackout, traffic hazard-21 people dead, 8 people missing in Kumamoto, Oita, Fukuoka prefecture

No.12No.15

6


紀の川宮川

北川

筑後川

松浦川矢部川

嘉瀬川

本明川

菊池川

緑川

球磨川

大分川大野川

番匠川

五ヶ瀬川

小丸川

大淀川川内川

肝属川

六角川

吉野川

那賀川

土器川

重信川肱川

物部川仁淀川

渡川

千代川天神川日野川

斐伊川

江の川高津川

吉井川旭川

高梁川芦田川太田川

小瀬川佐波川

由良川

大和川

円山川

加古川揖保川

新川

九頭竜川

狩野川安倍川大井川

菊川

天竜川

豊川

矢作川庄内川

木曽川

鈴鹿川

雲出川櫛田川

荒川

信濃川

関川

姫川黒部川

常願寺川

神通川庄川

小矢部川

手取川

山国川

久慈川

那珂川利根川

荒川

多摩川

鶴見川相模川

富士川

岩木川高瀬川

馬淵川

北上川

鳴瀬川

名取川

阿武隈川

米代川

子吉川

最上川赤川

遠賀川

雄物川

常呂川網走川

留萌川

石狩川

尻別川

後志利別川沙流川

釧路川

十勝川

天塩川渚滑川

湧別川

阿賀野川

淀川

梯川

白川

鵡川

-0.50.5-0.70.7-0.90.9-1.01.0-1.11.1-1.51.5-2.02.0-3.03.0-5.05.0-10.010.0-

-0.50.5-0.70.7-0.90.9-1.01.0-1.11.1-1.51.5-2.02.0-3.03.0-5.05.0-10.010.0-

Disaster risks due to heavy rain are predicted to increase Possibilities of floods, which exceed final river maintenance target, are projected to be 1.8 – 4.4 times higher than current levels in Japan (based on the research for first-grade rivers in Japan)

Reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

Magnification of flooding in hydrographic basin

Magnification is a median of future magnification of flooding (2075-2099) divided by current magnification (1979-2003)

1. Climate Change Impacts in Japanc. Heavy Rain Disaster

7


Future prediction shows that suitable water temperature for corals will shift northwards. However, coral habitats will be trapped between increased coral bleaching area and acidified area which are not suitable for coral growth. The habitat for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan might be decreased by half between 2020-2030 and lost completely between 2030-2040.

Reference：Yara, Y., M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber and Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan，Biogeosciences, 9, 4955-4968. 8

1. Climate Change Impacts in Japand. Habitat Change to North

Changes in Coral Habitats shifting North between 2000 and Future (2040, 2060 and 2090)

- Mesh: indicator of acidification (saturation of aragonite) . Saturation of aragonite is decreased when carbon dioxide melts into the sea, and aragonite is dissolved when it is under 1.

- Green line: northern limit of tropical/subtropical coral habitat

- Yellow line: northern limit of temperature coral habitat

- Black line: 30 ℃ water temperature line (not suitable for coral habitat)


Yields of irrigated rice will be increased but the quality might be negatively impacted

Quality and crop situation of irrigated rice in 2010

Reference: Tomoya Watanabe (2012) “What level does climate change make impacts on agricultural production, how to address and how should agriculture, forestry and fishery sector tackle climate change? Research project funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Map of Japan shows: - Indicator of rice

production in each prefecture (number on prefecture)

- Ratio of Class 1 rice (colour of prefecture)

Number in the box shows: - the ratio of class 1 rice

in 2010 (upper box) - deviation from average

over last 5 years

Nation Hokkaido

Tohoku

Kanto

HokurikuChugoku/Shikoku

Kyushu Kinki

Tokai

Okinawa

Ratio of Class 1

Over 90 %

Less than 30 %

9

1. Climate Change Impacts in Japane. Agriculture


Adverse Effect AdaptationDegradation of Crops(rice, fruits, etc.)

Breed Improvement

Increase of Disaster causedby heavy rains, typhoons, etc.

Improvement of Infrastructure

Effects to the eco-system(Habitat pattern change,Effect to Domestic Plants)

Establish a Corridor for native habitats (Green Pathway)

Risk of Heat Stress, Heat Strokes,Infectious Diseases, etc.

Greening in urban areas,Information DisseminationAwareness Raising

2. Past Countermeasures for Adaptation to Climate Change by Ministry of the Environment, Japan

Some Emerging Issues on Adverse Effects on Climate Change and Adaptation Activities to them in Japan


R and D Achievements

1994～2001

“Climate change impact in Japan”

2008 “Wise adaptation to climate change”

2009 “Comprehensive report on observation and prediction of climate change”

2010 “Approaches to climate change adaptation”

2011 “Statistic report and portal site for climate change impact”

2012 “New comprehensive report on observation and prediction of climate change”

Project for comprehensive

projection of climate change impacts

(2005-09)

Comprehensive Research on Climate

Change Impact Assessment and

Adaptation Policies (2010-14)

11

2. Past Countermeasures for Adaptation to Climate Change by Ministry of the Environment, JapanPast Research and Development related to Adaptation and Climate Change Impact in Japan

IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, IndiaRef: Approaches to climate change adaptation (2010)(http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/adapt_guide/pdf/approaches_to_adaptation_en.pdf)

1. Analyze past observation data, review responses to climate change & extreme weather

2.Plan & implement monitoring ofclimate change and its impacts

3. Project future climate change and its impacts

4. Assess impacts, vulnerability & resilience; assess risk based on findings

5. Determine need for adaptation measures, determine priority

6. Design & implement adaptation measures

7. Track & assess progress & effects of adaptation measures

8. Conduct integrated adaptation measures, basic capacity enhancement

9. Communication and information sharing with citizens

10. Review & implement based on feedback & reassessment

Incorporate adaptation measures into existing plans,

programs, policies

10 steps for planning and implementation of adaptation plan

12

3. Planning and Implementation of adaptation plan


National Adaptation

Plan

Risk management

Comprehensive and systematic measures

Collaboration with local governments

Risks in a lot of cases should be considered, including the case of beyond 2 degree target, even though mitigation measures is to be introduced as much as possible.

Adaptation measures should be promoted in local governments, where impacts are different from each condition, including climate, geography, culture and so forth.

Report from Central Environment Council in Jun. 2012 (provisional translation) 13

4. Three Basic Concepts of National Adaptation Plan

A number of impacts in various fields should be consisted in NAP, as a comprehensive plan of whole Japanese government.


Establish “Expert Committee on Climate Change Impact Assessment” at 114th Global Environmental Subcommittee, Central Environmental Council (2 July, 2013)

Summarize climate change impacts, risk assessment and future issues(around Jan, 2015)

Develop adaptation plan as a government-wide integrated effort (summer, 2015) ※ Periodical review (every 5 years)

• Extraction of priority areas/issues in short-term (- 10 years), middle-term (10-30 years) and long-term (30-100 years)

• Review at each ministry

• Further detailed projection of climate change in Japan to monitor extreme events

• Assessment on climate change impacts in Japan • Analysis on risk information

14

5. Steps towards Adaptation Plan

IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India 15

Thank you for your kind attention

Contact:Yoshihiro MIZUTANI(Mr)

[email protected]

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