Climate Change Hazards

8/8/2019 Climate Change Hazards

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Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,

1978

2002


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Th e Pasterze, Austria's longest glacier , was about 2 kilometers longer in the 19th C. but

is now completely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road.

1875 2004


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Mount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, AfricaMount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, Africa

20002000 19931993


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2020

Changes in Gangotri Glacier,Indian Himalaya

Th is composite AS TER image s h ows h ow t h e Gangotri Glacier terminus h asretracted since 1780. Contour lines are approximate. (Image by Jesse Allen, E art h

Observatory; based on data provided by th

e ASTER

ScienceT

eam; glacier retreatboundaries courtesy t h e La2020nd Processes Distributed Active Arc h ive Center)


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2121

1989-10-09 2000-10-31


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2222

1992-10-15 2000-10-29060212/0029


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GLOFS in PakistanGLOFS in Pakistan

As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behindmoraine or ice 'dams. These can breachmoraine or ice 'dams. These can breachanytime leading to floods known as G lacial Lakeanytime leading to floods known as G lacial Lake

Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:property,property,

farms,farms,

sociosocio--economic infrastructureeconomic infrastructureand livelihood of mountain peopleand livelihood of mountain peopleand downstream communities.and downstream communities.

2323


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3 d view of Main Biafo Glacier (S h igar R iver Basin) wit h overlaid digitized boundary of t h e glaciersh owing t h e c h anges in t h e main glacier stream.

T emporal C h ange Detection In Biafo Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan.

Landsat

image;Resolution 30m


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Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC

Hunza River Basin


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R etreat of t h e Hel h eim Glacier Greenland

2005

2001

200 3


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There is an urgent need toThere is an urgent need to

Assess Pakistans glaciers, future water Assess Pakistans glaciers, future water resources and storage requirements inresources and storage requirements inthe wake of climate change threatthe wake of climate change threat

Take appropriate ameliorative measuresTake appropriate ameliorative measureswell in time to avoid calamites.well in time to avoid calamites.

T he W ater Challenge:Conclusion


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Food Security ChallengeFood Security Challenge


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Agriculture Systems in Pakistan Agriculture Systems in Pakistan

Irrigated AgricultureIrrigated AgricultureConsumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% toConsumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% tonational productionnational production

Rained andRained and DrylandDryland Agriculture AgricultureContributes


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Vulnerability of Agriculture toVulnerability of Agriculture to

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeIrrigated areas:Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage dueVulnerable to irrigation water shortage dueto glacier melt in the wake of climate changeto glacier melt in the wake of climate change

SemiSemi--arid and Arid areas:arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes inVulnerable to changes inquantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.

Both of the irrigated and dry areas:Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerablevulnerableto climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, coldto climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, coldwaves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etcwaves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc


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Impacts of Climate Change on CropsImpacts of Climate Change on Crops

Shortening of growing season lengthShortening of growing season lengthLoss in yieldLoss in yield

Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,e.g. flowering, grain initiation stagese.g. flowering, grain initiation stagesIncreased pest/disease incidenceIncreased pest/disease incidence

Increased crop water requirementsIncreased crop water requirements


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2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 1 2 3 4 5Temperature Change oC)

W h e a t Y i e l d k g / h a )

orthernMountainous

umid)orthern Sub-

MountainousSub-humid)

Southern PlainsSemi arid)

Southern Plains Arid)

Eff e c t of increase in temperature on W heat yields in diff erentEff e c t of increase in temperature on W heat yields in diff erentagroagro--c limatic zones o f Pakistanc limatic zones o f Pakistan


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Flash floods,Flash floods,Droughts,Droughts,Heavy precipitation events,Heavy precipitation events,Hailstorms,Hailstorms,Dust storms,Dust storms,Cyclones,Cyclones,Heat /Cold wavesHeat /Cold waves

Climate Extreme EventsClimate Extreme Events


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Climate E xtreme E vents in PakistanClimate E xtreme E vents in Pakistan20092009 KarachiKarachi receivedreceived 205205 mmmm of of rainrain atat Masroor Masroor AirbaseAirbase andand 144144 mmmm atat

AirportAirport duringduring JulyJuly.. PreviousPrevious recordrecord for for rainfallrainfall atat KarachiKarachi isis 208208 mmmmoccurredoccurred inin 19771977

20072007 RecordRecord heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007.heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperatureThe temperatureof 48 C wasof 48 C was recorded on 9recorded on 9 thth June, 2007 at Lahore, aJune, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeatedrecord repeated after after 78 years78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8. Earlier it was recorded on 8 thth June, 1929June, 1929

20072007 TwoTwo super super cyclonescyclones namelynamely GonuGonu of of CatCat--55 andand YemyinYemyin of of CatCat--11developeddeveloped inin thethe ArabianArabian SeaSea duringduring June,June, 20072007 andand hithit MakranMakrancoastcoast andand adjoiningadjoining countriescountries. . TheThe historyhistory of of ArabianArabian SeaSea atat leastleast duringduringthethe previous previous centurycentury findsfinds nono suchsuch eventsevents occurringoccurring twicetwice inin aa monthmonth

20062006 InIn Pakistan,Pakistan, monsoonmonsoon--relatedrelated floodingflooding waswas blamed blamed for for moremore thanthan 185185deathsdeaths fromfrom latelate JulyJuly throughthrough midmid--AugustAugust 20062006 (AFP)(AFP).. InIn neighboringneighboringeasterneastern Afghanistan,Afghanistan, heavyheavy rainfallrainfall generatedgenerated floodingflooding thatthat claimedclaimed atatleastleast 3535 liveslives (Associated(Associated Press)Press)

20052005 HeavyHeavy rainrain causedcaused floodingflooding inin parts parts of of PakistanPakistan andand AfghanistanAfghanistan ininMarchMarch.. TheThe floodingflooding hithit BalochistanBalochistan ProvinceProvince veryvery adverselyadversely. . ThereTherewerewere moremore thanthan 3030 fatalitiesfatalities inin southwesternsouthwestern PakistanPakistan


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R ecent Climate E xtremes in PakistanR ecent Climate E xtremes in Pakistan20052005 During June, unusually warm temperatures in t h e mountainousDuring June, unusually warm temperatures in t h e mountainous

areas of nort h ern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and broug h tareas of nort h ern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and broug h t

extensive flooding along t h e Kabul, Swat,extensive flooding along t h e Kabul, Swat, KunarKunar andand C h itralC h itral riversrivers

20052005 Heavy rains in t h e sout h and snow in t h e nort h as well as Kas h mirHeavy rains in t h e sout h and snow in t h e nort h as well as Kas h mirregion triggered flooding and avalanc h es, killing at least 486region triggered flooding and avalanc h es, killing at least 486people during second week of Februarypeople during second week of February

20042004 Unusual lateUnusual late- -season h eavy snow fell across t h e Kas h mir region alongseason h eavy snow fell across t h e Kas h mir region alongth e border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000th e border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000nomads trapped in t h e Himalayan areas of nomads trapped in t h e Himalayan areas of Kas h mir.Kas h mir.

200 3200 3 HeavyHeavy rain and snow produced floodingrain and snow produced flooding in mid Februaryin mid February waswas

responsibleresponsible for more th

an 60 death

s infor more th

an 60 death

s in Baloch

istanBaloch

istan province. Flash

province. Flash

floodingflooding was h ed away parts of roads andwas h ed away parts of roads and h igh ways.h igh ways.20032003 At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rainsAt least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains

in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153 fatalitiesfatalitiesin the Sindh provincein the Sindh province


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20032003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reachedDuring early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached5252C at Jacobabad on the 5C at Jacobabad on the 5 thth; normal highs in early June are near ; normal highs in early June are near 4444CC

20012001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July

19991999--20012001 Historys worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of Historys worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of surrounding countriessurrounding countries

Continued:Continued:


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Flood Stranded People on the HighwayFlood Stranded People on the Highway


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Rescuing the drowning fellowsRescuing the drowning fellows


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Impacts on other EcosystemsImpacts on other Ecosystems


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Land Degradation in PakistanLand Degradation in Pakistan

Water ErosionWater Erosion : 17%: 17%

Wind ErosionWind Erosion : 8%: 8%Salinity andSalinity and SodicitySodicity : 9%: 9%WaterloggingWaterlogging : 5%: 5%

Low organic matter Low organic matter (


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Impacts on Land degradationImpacts on Land degradation

Land degradation enhanced by climateLand degradation enhanced by climatechange due tochange due to

Wind and water erosion, as a result of lowWind and water erosion, as a result of lowand high rainfalland high rainfallWater Water- -logging and Salinity, as a result of logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land surface.greater evaporation from land surface.


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Coastal ZonesCoastal Zones

Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to MangroveInundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangroveforests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish andforests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish andinfrastructureinfrastructure

Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta willUpstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta willpose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water andpose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water andlivelihood of dependant communities, thousands of livelihood of dependant communities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become salinehectares of fertile soil will become saline

Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gasemissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuriesbeyond 2100 because of the long response time of theglobal ocean system .


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Coping with the Climate ChangeCoping with the Climate Change Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of vulnerable areas and communitiesvulnerable areas and communitiesPreparedness for disaster and risk managementPreparedness for disaster and risk managementDevelopment of early warning systemDevelopment of early warning systemReducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infraReducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra- -structural changesstructural changesDeveloping new and innovative farm production practices,Developing new and innovative farm production practices,including new crop varieties and irrigation techniquesincluding new crop varieties and irrigation techniquesEmpowering communities and local stakeholders for their Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their active participation in vulnerability assessment andactive participation in vulnerability assessment andimplementation of adaptationimplementation of adaptationMainstreaming climate change into development planning atMainstreaming climate change into development planning atall scales, levels and sectorsall scales, levels and sectors


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Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:G lacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches,G lacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches,

Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.

Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of Pakistans economy.Pakistans economy.

Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.

Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and developmentPreparedness for disaster/ risk management and developmentof early warning system will contribute to safeguarding theof early warning system will contribute to safeguarding thevulnerable communities/sectors.vulnerable communities/sectors.

ConclusionsConclusions


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Thank youThank you

Climate Change Hazards

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