Environmental Health: More than a checklistEnvtl Health Australia NSW Conference

Port MacQuarie, Sept 7, 2016Health Reseach Inst, Univ. of Canberra, Visiting Fellow NCEPH, ANU

Climate change: “empirical data”.. and more!

Adjunct Professor Colin Butler

The future of global health - consequences of

global environmental changes

Empirical evidence: experientialacquired by means of senses, particularly observation and experimentation.

From Greek for experience, ἐμπειρία (empeiría)

In contrast to theories – whichin science, are evidence-based..

Climate change: “empirical data”.. and more!

Senator Malcom Roberts

Prof Brian Cox, holding a graph showing empirical (observed) data

John Tyndall, 1859

John Tyndall, 1859

water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane reduce heat loss, oxygen, nitrogen virtually transparent to heat.

without these, Earth .. "held fast in the iron grip of frost."

Empirical observation: marsh gas traps heat –

Theory:

“greenhouse” gases warm Earth. if greenhouse gases increases, so will global temperature if Earth heats, sea level will riseif atmosphere warms rainfall events will intensify

Ample empirical evidence for these

if climate change >2 degrees then highly dangerous for society

Limited empirical evidence as yet; case mounting

Most radiation absorbed byEarth, warming it

8

Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared

waves

Aerosols: net cooling effect

Feedback - additional GHGs

Some outgoing infrared radiation trapped by

atmosphere, warming it

CH4 CO2

Greenhouse gases

N2O

Sulfate particles

CH4

CO2

Slide adapted from one courtesy Prof Steffen Loft, University of Copenhagen,

Denmark

CO2 also wetlands, tundra, biomass burning, deforestation

CH4 wetlands, rice, tundra

Empirical evidence

Big coastal cities sink faster than seas rise By Pat Brennan, NASA Sea Level Portal Aug 31, 2016

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/58/big-coastal-cities-sink-faster-than-seas-rise

ruins of Fort Proctor partly submerged in “Lake” Borgne, east of New Orleans, La.

CO2 has not been this high in >half a million years.

350

300

250

200

Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Thousands of Years Before Present

[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]

Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Atmosphere over past 650,000 years

280 ppm (‘pre-industrial’)

405 ppm CO2 (2016)

Climate change, more than “empirical data”

Physical effectsHeat Floods and firesThe carbon budget Sea level riseOther extreme events

Health effects: “Primary”, “Secondary” “Tertiary”What can you do?Conclusion

Rahmstorf, from NASA data

http://www.attn.com/stories/2621/middle-east-heat-wave-climate-change

July 30, 2015 “heat dome”

stepping outside like “walking into a fire,” said Zainab Guman, a 26-year-old university student who lives in Basra. “It’s like everything on your body — your skin, your eyes,

your nose — starts to burn,” she said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/an-epic-middle-east-heat-wave-could-be-global-warmings-hellish-curtain-raiser/2016/08/09/c8c717d4-5992-11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html

Image: Mary Anne Sexsmith-Segato/The Canadian Press via AP

July 29, 2016

a microburst in Phoenix, AZ, USA July 2016

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing

Baseline: 1901-1960

> 20k Louisiana residents rescued from their homes; 12k currently in shelters in the wake of historic, devastating flash flooding

http://www.latim

es.com/nation/la-

na-louisiana-flooding-20160814-

snap-story.html

August 14, 2016

Flooding in Louisiana, USA, August 2016

http://jezebel.com/the-historic-flooding-in-louisiana-is-looking-pretty-da-1785299122?utm_campaign=socialfow_jezebel_twitter&utm_source=jezebel_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

Climate change, “empirical data” .. And more!

The carbon budget

Carbon budget: 1 trillion tones:

to have at least 66% chance of limiting global temperature increases to < 2 C

already emitted 2/3rds of this

NDC= Nationally determined contribution

Vulnerable carbon sinks

Climate change, “empirical data” .. And more!

Physical effectsSea

level rise

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Credits: Dave/Flickr Creative Commons/CC BY 2.0http://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/new-nasa-web-portal-shines-beacon-on-rising-seas/#

Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Florida

Flooding is becoming a “normal” nuisance in Miami, as the sea inexorably rises

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Imageshttps://weather.com/science/environment/news/miami-flooding-increase-over-past-decade

A house in Norfolk, Va., that has been repeatedly hit by tidal floods sat on temporary supports as workers prepared to elevate it permanently in June. Credit Eliot Dudik for

The New York Times Sept 2016http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/science/flooding-of-coast-caused-by-global-warming-has-already-begun.html?

action=click&contentCollection=Books&module=Trending&version=Full&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

Water from a tidal stretch of the Potomac River flooded Old Town Alexandria in Virginia during high tides in early June,

2016 Credit Gabriella Demczuk for The New York Times

At the City Market in Charleston, S.C., one of the most popular spots in town, shoppers dodged seawater that bubbled up from storm drains during high tide in June, 2016.

Credit Hunter McRae for The New York Times

“We’re putting enough heat in the ocean to send water over us, no question,” Dr. Stoddard said. “Ultimately, we give up and we leave. That’s how the story ends.”

Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida

2016 2045

200

150

100

50

0

Source: Coastal Risk Consulting, Graphic: Jan Diehm, The Guardian (2016)

2016 2045 2016 2045 2016 2045

Secondary

Tertiary

Primary

Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, fires

primary

Health effects of eco-climate-social stress

44

Australia: Getting Hotter from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010

605040302010

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

Data source: Bureau of Meteorology

Average number of record hot days per year, by decade

No. of record hot days [max temperature] at Australian climate reference stations, 1960-2009

No. of record hot

days

Night-time

Day-time‘Heat Island” Effect: Melbourne, Australia

Heatwave, Jan 2009

From: M Loughnan, Monash University

Heatwaves, Illness Events and Mortality

SOURCE: January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts. State of Victoria 2009

Maximum Temperature

Heat Stress

Heat Stroke

Dehydration

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Jan: 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 Feb Date

Temp oC

Melbourne, Australia, 2009

27-31 January – maximum temperatures 12-15°C above normal.

28-30 Jan: > 43°C

250

200

150

100

50

060% increase, Jan 29-30, in ambulance call-outs

126 out-of-hospital deaths (vs. 44 expected deaths)

Number of attendances

Ambulance attendances for heat-related illnesses in Metropolitan Melbourne: 19 Jan – 1 Feb, 2009

Elderly at most risk: vulnerable to exacerbation of chronic illness?

Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)

Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The PhilippinesStrongest recorded storm to make landfallDirect death toll: >5,000Displaced: >4 millionTotal Burden of Disease?Fraction attributable to climate change?

49

A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/feb/07/tacloban-after-typhoon-haiyan-in-pictures

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=Typhoon+Chan-hom&client=firefox-b&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiKq5myxvjOAhXDFpQKHQ7BAOYQ_AUICigD&biw=1708&bih=794&dpr=0.8#imgrc=ARGx7TW_Mem1qM%3A

Typhoon Chan-hom (2015)

Super typhoons becoming more powerful and more frequent, new study finds

Peter Hannam Sept 6, 2016

Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure

secondary

Health effects of eco-climate-social stress

• Climatic conditions set the geographic and seasonal boundaries of potential transmission.

• Other environmental, social and behavioural factors – and public health strategies – determine where/when actual transmission occurs.

Climate and Infectious Disease

3650m (13,000 feet)

54

Faster viral incubation in mosquitoShorter mosquito breeding cycle Increased mosquito feeding

frequency

Effects of Temperature Rise on Dengue Transmission

Dengue’s principal vector: Aedes aegypti

Map-projection of changes to rainfall across Australia to 2100 under ‘dry’ and ‘wet’ scenarios.

Using evidence from published literature, modelled how these changes would affect dengue distribution over space and time.

Areas suitable for dengue transmission in 2100 under 4 climate change scenarios (grey = ≥50% likelihood of transmission)

Bambrick et al., 2009, Global Hlth Action

4. Warm (strong mitigation)3. Hot & Wet

2. Hot, Median humidity1. Hot & Dry

Possums – vectors – mosquito? .. Little known

Bats (pteropid species) colonising urban environments Habitat loss, new-habitat attraction,

climate changePotential source of many new viruses

Nipah, Ebola, Hendra, …

Model-fitted relationship of monthly Salmonellosis case counts in relation to monthly av. temperature in five Australian cities, 1991-2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Average MonthlyTemperature oC

Salm

onel

la c

ount Perth

Brisbane

Adelaide

MelbourneSydney

D’Souza et al., 2003

Non-empirical

tertiary

Health effects of eco-climate-social stress

famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure

60

PNAS - 2015

Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works Agency in a great city - large parts of which have been destroyed by civil war, along with basic food supply infrastructure

“a risk multiplier”

Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)

Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”)

famine, conflict, large-scale migration,

economic collapse

Climate change, more than “empirical data”

What can you do?

Individual

• Eat less meat• Use more active transport • Consider solar panelsCollective???Increased coverage on Environmental health curriculumHeat warnings, food safetyPosition paper and join climate and health lobby groups

Most harm still in the future

Choice of Meat?- Greenhouse gas (esp. methane) emissions- Dietary fat content

Tonnes of GHG emissions per head per year (CO2 equivalents)

BEEFLean fillet

LAMBTrimmed steak

CHICKENLean breast

KANGAROOFillet or steakNew Scientist, Oct 9, 2010

Fat content per 100 gms of raw meat

Climate change, more than “empirical data”

Conclusion

The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating

broader global impacts on property, migration and political

stability, as well as food and water security. … Past is not

prologue … the catastrophic norms of the future can

be seen in the tail risks of today.

Mark Carney, 2015

(Governor of the

Bank of England)

Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability. http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx

Crisis = opportunity74

I

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dandy_horse

Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816)

http://www.saskwind.ca/blogbackend/2014/9/17/wind-solar-cost-declines-renewables-growth

Solar Power Will Become Cheaper Than Coal By 2017HuffPost India | By Anirvan Ghosh Posted: 14/05/2015 16:12 IST Updated: 21/05/2015 14:45 IST

http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2015/05/14/solar-power-will-become-cheaper-than-coal-by-2017/

Solar is now cheaper than coal, says India energy minister (April, 2016)

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/18/solar-is-now-cheaper-than-coal-says-india-energy-minister/

80

But .. Not just technology

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=Tesla%27s+Powerwall&biw=1920&bih=950&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=7AFHVfi1IMK4mAWxxYDIAw&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAQ#imgrc=naTB6IIlI9D8uM%253A%3BCxr_fp8gCRRjUM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Ficdn3.digitaltrends.com%252Fimage%252Ftesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.digitaltrends.com%252Fhome%252Ftesla-energy-is-the-companys-line-of-batteries%252F%3B970%3B546