Climate Change Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region Arizona-Mexico Commission – Water...
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Transcript of Climate Change Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region Arizona-Mexico Commission – Water...
Climate Change Challengesin the Arizona-Sonora
Border Region
Arizona-Mexico Commission – Water Committee2007 Arizona Summer Plenary Session
Tucson, Arizona June 14, 2007
Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet EarthUniversity of Arizona
Climate Change Water Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region
Increased temperatures: very likelyDecreased precipitation: likely
Potential direct impacts and concerns:• Decreased water supply reliability• Increased surface water evaporation• Decreased hydropower production• Reduced minimum flows for fish and estuaries• Earlier peak flow timing• Greater likelihood of extreme events: drought, flood
Climate Change Water Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region
Potential indirect impacts and concerns:• Increased water and energy demands for warm season cooling
• Amplified by urban heat islands• Increased stress on ecosystems:
• Enhanced insect-related disturbances• Fire erosion decreased water quality enhanced threats to infrastructure• Invasive species + fire + increased temperature plant and animal migration landscape transformation
2000
2002
20022002SoilSoil desiccationdesiccation
Arizona DailyArizona Daily StarStar
Lake Powell’s declineLake Powell’s declineJ. Dohrenwend, USGSJ. Dohrenwend, USGS
2003 Southern California Wildfires2003 Southern California WildfiresNew York TimesNew York Times
Southwest U.S. forest die-offSouthwest U.S. forest die-offT. Degomez, UA Cooperative ExtensionT. Degomez, UA Cooperative Extension
Mexico Ranching
Impacts1990s northern Mexico droughts
• 30% reduction in cattle inventory 1996: >300,000 cattle perished• Cattle sold in U.S. market at depressed prices• U.S.-Mexico tensions over tariffs, disease
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
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19
96
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98
20
00
20
02
Year
# o
f H
ea
d
Beef Cattle
# of Pigs
Reservoir Levels Reservoir Levels in Sonora
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jul-9
9
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0
Jul-0
0
Oct
-00
Jan-
01
Apr
-01
Jul-0
1
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2
Jul-0
2O
ct-0
2
Jan-
03
Apr
-03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Time
% C
apac
ity
Obregon
Calles
1999 Drought disaster declarationsCosts > $350 million (source: CNN, May 21, 1999)
Cortez Vázquez, 2006 NADM Workshop
October-May Precipitation Sonora/Chihuahua
José Villanueva Diáz, INIFAP, 2006 NADM Workshop
Radiation Balance
The climate system redistributes heat and moisture
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/09.htm
380
Most rapid change in the last 10,000 years
280
CO2 Change in Perspective
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/02.htm
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html
Calendar Year
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
An
nu
al
Tem
pe
ratu
re (
F )
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Upper Colorado Basin Mean Annual Temperature.Units: Degrees F. Annual: red. 11-year running mean: blue
Data from PRISM: 1895-2005.
WRCC / CEFA NOAA WestmapCourtesy of Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center
Water Year ( End Year )
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wa
ter
Ye
ar
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
in
ch
es
)
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Upper Colorado River Water Year Precipitation.October through September. Units: Inches.Data from PRISM. Blue: annual. Red: 11-yr mean.
WRCC CEFANOAA WestmapCourtesy of Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center
Henry Diaz, NOAA ESRL
Annual Temperature Change at 10,000 ft / 3,000 m – 1979-2004
Taken January 30, 2006 by Larry Martinez, USDA-NRCS: White Mountain Snowpack at 9,200 ft.,
near Mt. Baldy Wilderness (Normally 24” snowpack).
Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
IPCC 4th Assessment: Working Group I, Chapter 11, Regional Projections
• Lower latitudes tend to dry out during winter• Tropical high pressure expands• Jet stream retreats to the north
Change in Center of Mass in Streamflow
Stewart et al., 2004 Climatic Change
ConservativeProjection of Future Climate in the UCRB
11 models and 2 emissions scenarios downscaled to the Colorado River Basin
Departures from1950-1999
Annual average temperature
Annual average precipitation
Annual average runoff
Christensen & Lettenmaier, 2006
9.0°
5.4°
Impacts to LCRB
Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2006
• April 1 SWE: 75% of average by 2040-2069• Releases to Lower Basin: drop below current annual releases 28-44% of years• Delivery shortages: 21-38% of the time• Average deliveries to Mexico: –85% to –94% of treaty agreement• Power output: –20% of 1950-1999 average
Decreased surface water supply reliability
Longer Heat WavesDiffenbaugh et al., 2005
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
More Precipitation in ExtremesDiffenbaugh et al., 2005Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Arizona Daily Star
Victor Magaña, UNAM
Victor Magaña, UNAM
Courtesy of Dr. Craig Allen, NPS
Massive Forest Dieback
Courtesy of Univ. Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Researchhttp://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/learn/fire/ecological.html
Post-Wildfire Erosion
Courtesy of Ron Smallwood, Large Binocular Telescope Observatory, 2004 Fire
Current Realities: Changing demographics
• Population increases on both sides of the border• Growing populations strain water resources and raise
demand for energy• Altered land-use patterns increase vulnerability
Courtesy of Dr. Robert Varady, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy
Recommendations to address Climate Change Water Challenges
• Enhanced bi-national climate monitoring• SMN, NIDIS, AHIS• Citizen scientists, Rainlog
• Centers for Arizona-Sonora bi-national research and outreach• Capacity building initiatives
• Border Climate Summary• Arizona-Sonora drought preparedness
• To optimize decision-making: strong cooperation between institutions affected by climate and those that manage water and land
Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet Earth
www.ispe.arizona.edu/climashttp://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/