New Zealand ClimateChange Research Institute

Climate Change and Sustainable

Development:How do we manage it?

17 November 2010

Martin Manning

2

Our climate is starting to change more rapidly – can the science keep up?

Dealing with climate change has created a strong divergence of views in some places

Major parts of the private sector are now moving into climate risk management

Can we quickly start up a much broader social engagement in dealing with this?

Outline

3

2010 average temperatures will probably be highest on record for the Northern Hemisphere, and second

highest globally – but this is no longer the issue.

Annual average global temperatures from the University of East Anglia, UK, (red circles) and NASA Goddard Space Centre (green circles). The blue line shows a 15-year average smoothing of the annual values.

1850 1900 1950 2000

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

D

egre

es C

elsi

us

Year

Global average temperature change

4See: http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/faultlines/2010/05/2010518121127315453.html

Bolivia’s lead climate negotiator, Angelica Navarro, on the UNFCCC Copenhagen meeting outcome:“What we want in Bolivia is a true and participatory democracy, a grassroots democracy. If the governments do not come up with a plan for climate change, the people have to lead with a plan."

An 18,000 year old Bolivian glacier, Chacaltaya, was famous as the world’s highest ski resort. It began melting in the mid-1980s, was then predicted to disappear in 2015 – but did that in 2009!

This has major implications for their water supply.

Glacier loss in Bolivia means loss of water supply

5

From Julienne Stroeve, NSIDC, presentation to International Conference on Land Surface Radiation and Energy budgets.

6http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php

And science is still having to come up with ways of tracking all the changes

The Arctic region is warming at more than twice the global average rate.

Tracking Arctic ice volume is starting to complement previous tracking of its surface area.

More of the ice is now only one year old and thinner than it used to be.

7

The 114,564-tonne tanker, Baltica, sailed from Russia's northernmost port of Murmansk on August 14, 2010, across the top of Siberia, and delivered gas condensate to Ningbo, China, 11 days later – less than half the time it would have taken through the Suez canal.

But some are very quick at exploiting changes

88

Increasing rates of loss of the major ice sheets

Rate of Greenland ice mass loss. Khan et al, Geophys Res Letts, 2010

Feb 2003 – Feb 2007 Feb 2003 – Jun 2009

Greenland Antarctica

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data

Other Satellite ice sheet mass measurements show increasing rates of change

Velicogna, GRL, 2009

9

And we are still discovering new things

Straneo et al, Nature Geoscience, 2010

New evidence has shown a direct connection between warming sub-tropical water in the North Atlantic Ocean and melting in glacial fjords along Greenland's coast. This may now be contributing to the more rapid loss of Greenland's glaciers.

10

Better explanations of

recent SLR

Glaciers and ice capsice sheetsThermal expansion upper ocean… and deep ocean

& terrestrial storage

Black, yellow and red areobserved SLRBlue line is sum ofestimates and uncertainty

The IPCC 2007 report could not give a detailed budget for recent sea level rise (SLR). And future SLR projections were dominated by thermal expansion.

There is now strong evidence that glacier and ice sheet loss is already causing more than 50%.

Domingues et al, Nature, 2008.

11

New estimates for Sea Level Rise by 2100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

IPCC 2007IPCC 1990

SLR

(m)

US Dept Energy, 1985

?

Vertical bars show estimates of SLR by 2100 from major reviews over the last 20 years. The box with blue background shows new estimates. The open dots are from analogies with the last interglacial period. The new estimates are starting to be reflected in some planning guidelines.

New estimatessince 2007

19952001

12

About 140 million people and 1 trillion dollars of infra-structure would be directly affected by a 1 meter sea level rise.

Early effects come from storm damage and impacts on coastal water supply.

Adaptation needs to include strategic retreat from coastlines.

Sea level rise shows there can be major structural problems in adapting to climate change

Sea level rise will affect some countries much more than others - e.g. Vietnam, Bangladesh.

It shows that a major problem in adapting to a new climate is structural – e.g. country borders.

13

Rapid changes in our understanding of sea level rise show that the best

scientific estimates for future changes may now have to be continually

modified as we start to see major shifts in our environment

…and diagnosing some types of change can also be more difficult

…

14

2010 – a year of record drought in the Amazon

In 2010, the level of the dark Rio Negro, a tributary to the Amazon river drought dropped to lowest level on records of over 100 years. Drought in 2010 was more widespread than in 2005 which saw major loss in forests.

Deforestation dropped very significantly in 2010 as well.

But fire activity increased.

Brazilians cross the muddy bottom of the Rio Negro, a major tributary to the Amazon River, in the city of Manaus, Oct. 26, 2010.

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101029/full/news.2010.571.htmlhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/brazil/101102/amazon-drought-climate-change

But can we be sure

this a trend?

15

2010 – Colder Weather extremes?

Hansen et al, Rev. Geophys, in press.Temperature anomaly (oC) for Dec-Jan-Feb 2010, relative to 1951-1980 average

Heavy snow in Europe in early 2010 was very unusual. It was much colder than normal in some places but much warmer on average over the Northern Hemisphere.

The heavier snow fall is related to more water vapour now being in the atmosphere.

16

Drought and widespread fires in Russia at the same time as record breaking flooding down the Indus valley in Pakistan, and near-record flooding across much of China, is raising the question of correlations between extreme events.

Extremes like this have been expected to become more frequent, for some time - but some climate scientists are now concerned about possible connections between them.

2010 – Warmer Weather extremes?

Russia

ChinaChina

Pakistan

17

Some stronger lines on the attribution of extreme events

At a meeting of climate scientists covering extreme events in August 2010, Kevin Trenberth gave a detailed explanation of potential connections between:

Arctic ice sheet loss, warming of the Indian Ocean, blocking of weather patterns over much of Asia, record droughts in Russia, record floods in Pakistan, and extreme flooding across much of China.

But do we have to wait till it happens again and again to be sure ?

18

Increasing rates of change make it a risky worldScientists usually want to be sure of what they know, and understand the limits for what they don’t know, before they say it.

The IPCC Working Group I on the physical sciences of climate change has decided it can not cover risk management.

So do we wait till the science is sure OR …

The United Nations Precautionary Principle agreed by all governments in 1992 …

“Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”

19

And we also seem to be at a Y-Junction

Malte Meinshausen et al, Nature, 2009

Increasing use of fossil fuels.

Rapid development of new technology and halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

It’s more to do with politics than climate science or technology

And the IEA reported this year that subsidies for fossil fuels had now increased to $537 billion

Projections of global warming for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios

20

“There isn’t any real science to say we are altering the climate path of the earth. “The Democrats’ bill would raise everyone’s electricity bills and make the nation less competitive. Roy Blunt, Republican congressman on the House Energy and Commerce Committee

“There never was a shred of evidence that CFCs were in the ozone layer or causing change.“Global warming and climate change are the biggest scam of all. Tim Ball, former professor of Geography, Canada

We are at a Y-junction as contrarian views continue and there is inertia for major changes

21

Lord Nicholas Stern, 12 Sep 2010.

“If the USA wont move then others should just get on with it, and that may affect the market later”.

Is climate change causing an international split?

Jos Delbeke, director general of the European Commission's climate team, 6 Nov 2010

"We see the U.S. disappearing as a partner in achieving meaningful climate action.

22

"The rapid growth of China's engagement with climate change has been staggering: last year China accounted for over 24 percent of total global investment into the climate change sector, having represented only 6 percent of the total in 2004.-Joaquim de Lima, HSBC, 2010.

www.greenbiz.com/news/2010/09/17/china-moving-forefront-emerging-low-carbon-economy

Developing countries are taking different lines

23

“Assessments conducted by the intelligence community indicate that climate change could have significant geopolitical impacts around the world, contributing to poverty, environmental degradation, and the further weakening of fragile governments. “Climate change will contribute to food and water scarcity, will increase the spread of disease, and may spur or exacerbate mass migration.

“While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world.

And then there is the US military defense agency

Have the US Congressmen read this?

24

‘Deutsche Bank spurns US for climate investment “They're asleep at the wheel on climate change, …” Kevin Parker, head of Deutsche Asset management division. (Reuters, 11 Aug 2010)

The private sector is also taking stronger lines

That may link to the Deutsche Bank report, released in September, which addresses 12 of the major claims made by skeptics; completely rejects most of them; and points out that the others are no reason for doubting that human activities are warming the Earth now.

… and also in Sep 2010

“The global insurance industry demands public-private action on climate change adaptation in developing countries.”

www.dbcca.com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710.pdf

25Munich Re Topics Geo 2009

Earthquakesvolcanoes

Storms, hail,severe weather

Floods, stormslandslide

Wildfire, drought

The Insurance industry has been reporting increasing numbers of extreme events.

The top three groups of extreme events are climate related

26

Lloyds Insurance wants more risk management

“If no action is taken, losses from coastal flooding could double by 2030. Therefore adaptation is vital.

“With effective adaptation strategy, future losses can be reduced to below present day values.

“The insurance industry can encourage adaptation by policyholders through incentivisation.

“The world cannot insure its way out of climate change2010

“Governments will become increasingly dependent on the creativity and skills of the private sector in tackling the security challenges that

climate change will bring. Dr Richard Ward, Chief Executive Officer, Lloyds

27

Community and Regional Resilience Initiative, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008

o “The greatest overall disaster in U.S. history at a time of unprecedented U.S. wealth and power

o “Creating community resilience takes time and longer than anticipated

o “Surprises should be expected & anticipation was insufficient

o “Despite 290 years of effort, overall vulnerability to hurricanes has grown

In New Orleans, the major planning for hurricanes, after Hurricane Betsy occurred in 1965, was never completed. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was more extreme, and also revealed structural inertia in planning.

And risk management in a changing world- is a new issue

28

The Y-Junction is really about the range of views…

Politics has to be based on winning the next election

Our children can look after themselves

Perhaps in 10 years time we can start to do something

We want security for long term investments

We will be judged by what we pass on to future generations

29

IPCC

So what next ?The IPCC was set up to communicate current

understanding of climate science directly into the international policy process

Science Policy

30

Society

IPCC

growing involvement of Industry & Investment

Risk Management

Investmentpriorities

Climatestabilisation

options

Considerationof future

generations

We now need a broader framework like this …

Science Policy

31

Summary (is the same as my Outline)

Our climate is starting to change more rapidly – can the science keep up?

Dealing with climate change has created a strong divergence of views in some places

Major parts of the private sector are now moving into climate risk management

Can we quickly start up a much broader social engagement in dealing with this?

MUCHAS GRACIAS