Climate Change and DevelopmentClimate Change and Development

Victor OrindiVictor OrindiAfrican Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), Nairobi.African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), Nairobi.

Workshop on Climate Change and Poverty Eradication, Workshop on Climate Change and Poverty Eradication, November 18, 2005November 18, 2005

1. Relationship between climate 1. Relationship between climate change and developmentchange and development

– CC affect the likelihood of success of CC affect the likelihood of success of development initiativesdevelopment initiatives

– Development initiatives may increase Development initiatives may increase resilience or vulnerability to climate resilience or vulnerability to climate changechange

– Measures aimed at adaptation also Measures aimed at adaptation also address poverty reductionaddress poverty reduction

2. Country 2. Country BackgroundBackground

• Economy largely dependant on Economy largely dependant on agriculture. Other important sectors agriculture. Other important sectors like tourism, energy, water and like tourism, energy, water and health are also climate sensitive.health are also climate sensitive.

• Poverty levels are high (>53% ) but Poverty levels are high (>53% ) but even higher among rural populationeven higher among rural population

• 80% of the country is ASAL (zone iv-80% of the country is ASAL (zone iv-vii) receiving rainfall of <500mm vii) receiving rainfall of <500mm

3.Future Climate Scenarios in 3.Future Climate Scenarios in KenyaKenya• Declining rainfall in ASALS (adversely Declining rainfall in ASALS (adversely

affecting food production)affecting food production)

• Increased occurrence of extreme climatic Increased occurrence of extreme climatic events (drought and floods)events (drought and floods)

• Increased incidences of climate sensitive Increased incidences of climate sensitive diseasesdiseases

• Sea level rise- coastal infrastructure, Sea level rise- coastal infrastructure, tourism.tourism.

4a. Agriculture and Food Security4a. Agriculture and Food Security• Agriculture faced with many challenges Agriculture faced with many challenges

even without CC (Increasing Pop, even without CC (Increasing Pop, declining soil fertility, Increasing declining soil fertility, Increasing indebtness and isolation from markets)indebtness and isolation from markets)

• Climate Variability (esp rainfall) is an Climate Variability (esp rainfall) is an additional and major constraint to additional and major constraint to productivityproductivityLimited adoption of Improved technology + Limited adoption of Improved technology +

Investment in agric.Investment in agric.

• Food Production becoming more Food Production becoming more vulnerable to CV as Rainfed agriculture vulnerable to CV as Rainfed agriculture moves into marginal areasmoves into marginal areas

4b. Addressing the 4b. Addressing the problemproblem• Incorporate seasonal forecasts into decision Incorporate seasonal forecasts into decision

making to increase uptake of improved making to increase uptake of improved technologiestechnologies– developing reliable indicators, developing reliable indicators, – Improve on extensionImprove on extension

• New Risk of pest and diseasesNew Risk of pest and diseases

• Reforming agricultural policies have not Reforming agricultural policies have not been supportive of subsistence been supportive of subsistence farming/pastoral Development.farming/pastoral Development.

5. Climate Change and Health5. Climate Change and Health• CV/Climate anomalies Key drivers in the increased CV/Climate anomalies Key drivers in the increased

incidence and spread of climate sensitive diseases incidence and spread of climate sensitive diseases (malaria, dengue, cholera, meningitis, rift valley fever (malaria, dengue, cholera, meningitis, rift valley fever etc)etc)

• Malaria epidemics associated more closely with CV than Malaria epidemics associated more closely with CV than temperature increasetemperature increase

• Policy of quick diagnosis and effective treatment not Policy of quick diagnosis and effective treatment not working. working.

• Other important factors (Poverty, Drug resistance, Other important factors (Poverty, Drug resistance, demographic, land use changes etc)demographic, land use changes etc)

• Need to address other factors (e.g. poverty, attitude, Need to address other factors (e.g. poverty, attitude, vulnerable groups)vulnerable groups)

6. Climate Change and Water Resources6. Climate Change and Water Resources

• Kenya is a water scarce country.Kenya is a water scarce country.

• Surface water resources strongly influenced by Surface water resources strongly influenced by climatic factors + Rare in dry areasclimatic factors + Rare in dry areas

• Ground water resources has a considerable time lagGround water resources has a considerable time lag

• Future water development will focus increasingly on Future water development will focus increasingly on ground water but available information remains ground water but available information remains largely inaccessible largely inaccessible

• Limited access in some areas due to poor laws/policies Limited access in some areas due to poor laws/policies and/or managementand/or management

• Challenge is managing increasing water demand Challenge is managing increasing water demand together with climate variability/changetogether with climate variability/change

6b. Water 6b. Water ContdContd

• Information on effects of climate variability/change on Information on effects of climate variability/change on water quality, quantity needed for better managementwater quality, quantity needed for better management

• Many reforms in the water sector (New Many reforms in the water sector (New laws/regulations /institutions, privatization) being laws/regulations /institutions, privatization) being implemented hurriedly- donor conditionality?implemented hurriedly- donor conditionality?

• Focus too narrow (drinking water; need to focus Focus too narrow (drinking water; need to focus broadly on productive uses). broadly on productive uses).

• Conflicts- decreasing water availability & inadequacy Conflicts- decreasing water availability & inadequacy of current mgt systems?of current mgt systems?

• Integrate Customary systems of water management Integrate Customary systems of water management into the formal laws.into the formal laws.

• Promote Rainwater Water HarvestingPromote Rainwater Water Harvesting

7a. Climate Related 7a. Climate Related DisastersDisasters

• Frequency (Floods/droughts) has Frequency (Floods/droughts) has increased of late and may worsenincreased of late and may worsen

• Redirection of limited resources to Redirection of limited resources to deal with the effects. deal with the effects. – we are yet to fully recover from the effects of we are yet to fully recover from the effects of

the 1997/98 El-Nino (infrastructure) and the the 1997/98 El-Nino (infrastructure) and the numerous droughts in the recent past.numerous droughts in the recent past.

8.Energy Resources8.Energy Resources• Biomass energy account for 80% of energy consumedBiomass energy account for 80% of energy consumed

• Electricity mostly comes from the Electricity mostly comes from the HydrosHydros which are which are sensitive to change in precipitation. sensitive to change in precipitation. – The 1999-2001 drought necessitated the use of diesel engines The 1999-2001 drought necessitated the use of diesel engines

to reduce the deficitto reduce the deficit

• The increasing demand for electricity has surpassed The increasing demand for electricity has surpassed supplysupply

• Possible alternatives include improving access to Possible alternatives include improving access to renewable energy which is not a straight forward thing. renewable energy which is not a straight forward thing. – Despite their many benefits ( efficient and Despite their many benefits ( efficient and

environmentally friendly) their adoption has been very environmentally friendly) their adoption has been very low)low)

Attaining the MDGsAttaining the MDGs1. Using Climate information for sustainable development. 1. Using Climate information for sustainable development.

Address why available Climate information and forecasts Address why available Climate information and forecasts not used by majority of the vulnerable groupsnot used by majority of the vulnerable groups• lack of trust on the value of weather forecasting; lack of trust on the value of weather forecasting; • poor packaging of information and dissemination methodspoor packaging of information and dissemination methods• Timing of forecastsTiming of forecasts

Empowering vulnerable communities to use climate information:Empowering vulnerable communities to use climate information: TimelyTimely Easy to understandEasy to understand Give guidance on what needs to be done/ range of optionsGive guidance on what needs to be done/ range of options

2. 2. Strengthening IMS- The African environment very Strengthening IMS- The African environment very diverse (Climate, Productions systems, Institutions etc)- diverse (Climate, Productions systems, Institutions etc)- we need to analyze and draw lessons from success we need to analyze and draw lessons from success stories stories

3. Greater attention should be paid to the role of private 3. Greater attention should be paid to the role of private sectors in linking farmers to markets as a potential sectors in linking farmers to markets as a potential mechanism for helping “buffer” against the impacts of mechanism for helping “buffer” against the impacts of CV and CCCV and CC

Thank YouThank You