Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei,...
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Transcript of Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei,...
![Page 1: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study
Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo
and Andy Turner
![Page 2: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Observed decadal variability in the period 1958-2007
![Page 3: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Decadal variability in the period 1901-2002 using CRU dataset
![Page 4: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Outline
Can HadCM3 simulate the observed decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall without additional forcing?
• Changes in the mean state
• Changes in extreme
• Changes in variability
How may Chinese summer rainfall respond to doubled CO2 according to HadCM3?
![Page 5: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Internal decadal variability in the 1000-year control run of HadCM3
![Page 6: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Observation-like decadal variability identified in the 1000-year control run
![Page 7: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Observation-like decadal variability in the 51-year period (the model year 590±25)
![Page 8: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Regressions of surface temperature on decadal rainfall time series in the 51-year period
Regression on PC1 Regression on PC2
![Page 9: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Can HadCM3 simulate the observed decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall without additional forcing?
Yes!
• In general, internal decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall is associated with decadal variability in the tropics.
• A particular 51-year period has remarkable similarity with observations in the recent 50 years for both Chinese summer rainfall and other large-scale variables.
Summary I
![Page 10: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Changes in the climate of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run (I)
2xCO2
2xCO2
- control
percentage
Amount Intensity Frequency
![Page 11: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Changes in the climate of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run (II)
![Page 12: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Changes in the climate of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run (III)
![Page 13: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Changes in extreme events of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run
Percentile (%)
mm/day
![Page 14: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The dominant Chinese rainfall patterns in the control and 2xCO2 runs (I)
1xCO2 2xCO2
![Page 15: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The dominant Chinese rainfall patterns in the control and 2xCO2 runs (II)
1xCO2 2xCO2 1xCO2 2xCO2
![Page 16: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The dominant Chinese rainfall patterns in the control and 2xCO2 runs (III)
![Page 17: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Uncertainty of decadal variability in the control and 2xCO2 runs (I)
![Page 18: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Uncertainty of decadal variability in the control and 2xCO2 runs (II)
![Page 19: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
How may Chinese summer rainfall respond to doubled CO2 according to HadCM3?
Mean:
• Chinese summer rainfall increases, except the Yangtze River valley;
• Intensity increases everywhere;
• Decreases in the frequency over the east and increases over the northwest.
Summary II
![Page 20: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
How may Chinese summer rainfall respond to doubled CO2 according to HadCM3?
Summary II
Increases in extreme events, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship
Variability:
• Increases in interannual variability are very likely with global warming, which may be associated with the strengthened El Nino events.
• Changes in decadal variability are unclear.
![Page 21: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062620/551ae67e5503465e7d8b4a0b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)