South Australian Murray Darling Basin NRM BoardRanges to River NRM - Community Science Forum

 Farming Sustainability &

Technologies 

Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga

What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?

What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?

CSIRO and Bureau of Met March 2010

Causes of climate change

Causes

Ocean Circulation

Volcanic eruptions

Solar variations

Orbital variations

Greenhouse gasses

Feedback

Clouds, Aerosols, Water vapour, Ice reflectivity, GHG

Changes to global climate

Changes to regional climate

Impacts on local natural and human systems

Changes to the atmosphere

www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu

Cascading uncertainty

Changes to global climate

Changes to regional climate

Impacts on local natural and human systems

Changes to the atmosphere

www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu

Cascading uncertainty

Emission scenarios

Global circulation models

Downscaling models

Impact models

Role for agronomy & farming systems

Role for agronomy and farming sysgtems

Climate Science

Ryan et al 2010

Lyndoch

Nurioopta

Eden Valley

N

Thinking about future climates

Climate change projections from GCMS

Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline

Temporal analogues

– eg drought

Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site

Legend

Goyders_line

Cropping areas 2008

Legend

Goyders_line

Cropping areas 2008 Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.

April to October rainfall

Sep 2000

Sep 2002

Sep 2006

Howden et al 2010