Climate Change Adaptation in ETHIOPIA Climate …...Adaptation measures such as improved water...
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• Observations indicate a rise in average temperature of about 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006. Strong variability makes long-term precipitation trends difficult to determine, but studies suggest an overall decline since 1984, with significant year-to-year volatility. Major floods have been a common occurrence, leading to loss of life and property in numerous parts of the country. Rising sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean influence the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and can further increase variability in the timing and duration of rainfall seasons, and consequently cause frequent drought. Projected Weather and Climate While projections for Ethiopia vary across climate models, the majority of climate models suggest the following: Median annual temperature will continue to increase through the 2090s. • Although there are significant discrepancies between model predictions for rainfall for many areas in Africa, current rainfall projections for Ethiopia for the 2060s range from a decrease of 6 percent below the observed 1970-99 average to an increase of 24 percent. Most models predict a larger percentage of precipitation falling during heavy events, which can increase the risk of disasters such as floods and landslides. KEY SECTOR VULNERABILITIES Food Security The climate impacts of greatest significance for agriculture and food security are likely to be warmer temperatures and more frequent occurrence of drought. Climate change may affect crop yields, and consequently, nutrition and health. A recent study indicates that an increase in temperature of 5°C in East Africa may lead to a production decline of nearly 20 percent by the 2090s. Increased intensity and frequency of drought can affect food security through direct impacts on food availability (e.g., reduced crop yields, and changes in the quantity and quality of livestock feed and forage), and through indirect impacts on livelihoods and income that in turn have consequences for food accessibility. Currently, the Horn of Africa is seeing one of the driest years since 1995 due to two consecutive seasons of significantly below- average precipitation.This has led to crop failures, livestock losses, and high local cereal prices, which have affected food availability and accessibility.As a result, the United States Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network has referred to the situation as“the most severe food security emergency in the world today.” Severe weather events such as droughts and floods have historically imposed heavy costs in Ethiopia.The projected impacts of climate change may affect the consequences of these events, and could potentially hinder advancements in key development areas such as food security, water resources management, health, and economic growth. In recognition of this fact, the Government of Ethiopia has initiated activities to determine vulnerability and adaptation priorities, while the donor community has provided support to facilitate mainstreaming of adaptation considerations into development processes and increase resilience in the agriculture and food security sector. However, a number of adaptation needs remain, including the need for more technical expertise in vulnerability and adaptation assessment and implementation in sectors such as agriculture and food security, water resources, and health; improved technical facility and technological capacity to provide accurate and timely weather and climate forecasts; a strengthened institutional framework for dealing with climate change; and enhanced coordination. CLIMATE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY Historic Weather and Climate Map of Ethiopia. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica Climate Change Adaptation in ETHIOPIA
Transcript of Climate Change Adaptation in ETHIOPIA Climate …...Adaptation measures such as improved water...
• Observationsindicateariseinaveragetemperatureofabout1.3°Cbetween1960and2006.
• Strongvariabilitymakeslong-termprecipitationtrendsdifficulttodetermine,butstudiessuggestanoveralldeclinesince1984,withsignificantyear-to-yearvolatility.
• Majorfloodshavebeenacommonoccurrence,leadingtolossoflifeandpropertyinnumerouspartsofthecountry.RisingseasurfacetemperaturesintheIndianOceaninfluencethemigrationoftheIntertropicalConvergenceZoneandcanfurtherincreasevariabilityinthetiminganddurationofrainfallseasons,andconsequentlycausefrequentdrought.
Projected Weather and ClimateWhileprojectionsforEthiopiavaryacrossclimatemodels,themajorityofclimatemodelssuggestthefollowing:
• Medianannualtemperaturewillcontinuetoincreasethroughthe2090s.
• AlthoughtherearesignificantdiscrepanciesbetweenmodelpredictionsforrainfallformanyareasinAfrica,currentrainfallprojectionsforEthiopiaforthe2060srangefromadecreaseof6 percentbelowtheobserved1970-99averagetoanincreaseof24 percent.
• Mostmodelspredictalargerpercentageofprecipitationfallingduringheavyevents,whichcanincreasetheriskofdisasterssuchasfloodsandlandslides.
KEY SECTOR VULNERABILITIESFood SecurityTheclimateimpactsofgreatestsignificanceforagricultureandfoodsecurityarelikelytobewarmertemperaturesandmorefrequentoccurrenceofdrought.Climatechangemayaffectcropyields,andconsequently,nutritionandhealth.Arecentstudyindicatesthatanincreaseintemperatureof5°CinEastAfricamayleadtoaproductiondeclineofnearly20 percentbythe2090s.Increasedintensityandfrequencyofdroughtcanaffectfoodsecuritythroughdirectimpactsonfoodavailability(e.g.,reducedcropyields,andchangesinthequantityandqualityoflivestockfeedandforage),andthroughindirectimpactsonlivelihoodsandincomethatinturnhaveconsequencesforfoodaccessibility.
Currently,theHornofAfricaisseeingoneofthedriestyearssince1995duetotwoconsecutiveseasonsofsignificantlybelow-averageprecipitation.Thishasledtocropfailures,livestocklosses,andhighlocalcerealprices,whichhaveaffectedfoodavailabilityandaccessibility.Asaresult,theUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment’sFamineEarlyWarningSystemsNetworkhasreferredtothesituationas“themostseverefoodsecurityemergencyintheworldtoday.”
ClimateChangeAdaptationinETHIOPIAOctober2011
SevereweathereventssuchasdroughtsandfloodshavehistoricallyimposedheavycostsinEthiopia.Theprojectedimpactsofclimatechangemayaffecttheconsequencesoftheseevents,andcouldpotentiallyhinderadvancementsinkeydevelopmentareassuchasfoodsecurity,waterresourcesmanagement,health,andeconomicgrowth.Inrecognitionofthisfact,theGovernmentofEthiopiahasinitiatedactivitiestodeterminevulnerabilityandadaptationpriorities,whilethedonorcommunityhasprovidedsupporttofacilitatemainstreamingofadaptationconsiderationsintodevelopmentprocessesandincreaseresilienceintheagricultureandfoodsecuritysector.However,anumberofadaptationneedsremain,includingtheneedformoretechnicalexpertiseinvulnerabilityandadaptationassessmentandimplementationinsectorssuchasagricultureandfoodsecurity,waterresources,andhealth;improvedtechnicalfacilityandtechnologicalcapacitytoprovideaccurateandtimelyweatherandclimateforecasts;astrengthenedinstitutionalframeworkfordealingwithclimatechange;andenhancedcoordination.
CLIMATE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITYHistoric Weather and Climate
MapofEthiopia.Source:EncyclopediaBritannica
Climate Change Adaptation in ETHIOPIA
Water ResourcesEthiopiahasrelativelyabundantwaterresources,withestimatedmeanannualflowsfromthecountry’s12river/drainagebasinsof111billioncubicmetersandgroundwaterpotentialofapproximately2.6billioncubicmeters.Todate,onlyasmallportionoftheseresourceshasbeendevelopedforsectorssuchashydropower,agriculture,andwatersupplyandsanitation.Asthesesectorsdevelop,demandforwaterislikelytorise.Impactsofclimatechangemayactasanadditionalstressor,affectingthequantityandqualityofavailablewaterresources,particularlyinlow-rainfallareassuchasthelowlands.Climatechangemayalsoexacerbateexistingnon-climatestressessuchasweakwaterresourcesgovernance.Adaptationmeasuressuchasimprovedwaterstoragemayserveasimportantcopingmechanismsandhelptoreducethepotentialimpactsofclimatechange.
HealthCurrentclimatevariabilityadverselyaffectshealthinEthiopia,andclimatechangeislikelytoimposenewstresses,resultinginanumberofdirectandindirectimpacts,summarizedinthetablebelow.Increasedmalnutrition,diarrhea,andmalariahavebeenidentifiedastheimpactsofgreatestsignificance.Higherthannormaltemperaturesassociatedwithclimatechangecanincreasetheincidenceofmalaria,whichmayspreadtoformallyunaffectedhighlandareas.Prevalenceofthediseasehaspreviouslybeenlowintheseareas,andcommunitiesarelikelytobemoresensitive,duetotheirrelativelackofpreviousexposureandlimitedimmunity.
Potential Impacts and Consequences of Climate Change for Health
KEY ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITIESHighlandsThehighlandareasarecomprisedofthemiddlehighlandswithaltitudesbetween1,500-2,300metersabovesealevel(m.a.s.),andthehighlands,withaltitudesupwardsof2,300m.a.s.Theseecosystemshostarichdiversityoffloraandfauna,includinganumberofendemicspecies,suchasseveralgloballyrecognizedendemicbirdareas.Thehighlandsalsosupportthemajorityofthecountry’shumanpopulation.Thehighpopulationdensityandtheeconomicactivitiesundertakeninthehighlandsareplacingstressonfragilehighlandecosystems.
Climatevariabilityhasalreadybeguntoaffecthighlandareas,withrainfallirregularitiesandassociatedfloodinganddroughtsofgreatestconcern.Forinstance,localizedfloodingbelowhillsidesisawidespreadhazardinthefoothillsofthemountainousareasinnorthwestAmhara,whichcandamageagricultureandecosystems.Predictedchangesinclimatemayincreaseclimaterisksandworsennon-climatestressors,suchassoilproblemsandthepestdamagethatalreadyplaguestheArsi-BaleHighlands.
LowlandsLowlandsconsistprimarilyofthearidlowlandplains.Theseecosystemsandtheresourcestheyprovide,suchasgrazinggrasslandsandfirewoodforhouseholduseandsale,supportthewell-beingandlivelihoodsoftheestimated8millionpastoralistslocatedintheEthiopianportionoftheHornofAfrica.Theselowlandareasarecurrentlyunderpressurefromanumberofnon-climatestressessuchasovergrazing,overexploitation,shiftsawayfromtraditionalmodesofrangelandmanagement,bushencroachment,introductionofinvasivespecies,andpopulationgrowth.
Direct
Indirect(due to disturbances of ecological systems)
• Exposuretothermalextremes,especiallyheatwaves.• Alteredfrequencyand/orintensityofotherextreme
weatherconditions(droughts,floods,storms,etc.).
• Effectsonrangesandactivityofvectorsandparasites.• Alteredlocalecologyofwater-andfood-borne
infectiveagents.• Alteredfood(especiallycrop)productivitydueto
changesinclimate,weather,andassociatedpestsanddiseases.
• Freshwatervulnerability.• Increasedlevelsandbiologicalimpactsofairpollution
includingpollensandspores.• Social,economic,anddemographicdislocationsdue
toadverseclimatechangeimpactsontheeconomy,infrastructure,andresourcesupply.
Impact Mode Impacts Consequences
• Alteredratesofheat-andcold-relatedillness,especiallycardiovascularandrespiratorydiseases.
• Deaths,injuries,anddamagetopublichealthinfrastructure.
• Changeingeographicrangesandincidenceofvectorbornediseases.Forinstance,anincreaseintemperatureof1-2°Ccanshiftpotentialmalariariskareasfromthetraditionaltropicaltotemperatezones.
• Changedincidencesofdiarrheaandinfectiousdiseases.• Regionalmalnutritionandhungerwithconsequent
impairmentofchildgrowthanddevelopmentespeciallyinvulnerablecommunities.
• Increasedriskofvariousinfectiousdiseases(duetomigration,overcrowding,contaminationofdrinkingwater).
• Asthmaandallergicdisorders,otheracuteandchronicrespiratorydisordersanddeaths.
• Widerangeofconsequencesaffectingpublichealth(e.g.mentalhealth,nutritionalimpairment,infectiousdiseases,civilstrife).
CLIMATECHANGEADAPTATIONINETHIOPIA
• InitialNationalCommunication(INC)(2001):Considersmitigationandadaptationandincludesinformationongreenhousegasemissions,potentialmitigationoptions,vulnerabilityassessmentsofkeysectors,possibleadaptationmeasures,andthepolicyandinstitutionalcontextforrespondingtoclimatechange.
• NationalAdaptationProgrammeofAction(NAPA)(2007):Drawsonthemultilateralenvironmentagreementssynergyassessmentreports,theINC,andtwonationalandeightregionalconsultativeworkshopsconductedbytheNationalMeteorologicalAgency(NMA).(Otherrelevantplansstrategiesandpoliciesarelistedintheboxatright.)
NATIONAL STRATEGIES, PLANS AND INSTITUTIONS RELEVANT TO CLIMATE
Adaptation-Relevant Strategies, Plans, and Policies•PlanforAcceleratedandSustainableDevelopmenttoEndPoverty•EnvironmentalPolicyofEthiopia•AgricultureandRuralDevelopmentPolicyandStrategy•NationalAgriculturalResearchPolicyandStrategy•WaterResourcesManagementPolicy•HealthSectorDevelopmentPolicyandProgram•NationalPolicyonDisasterPreventionandPreparedness•NationalPolicyonBiodiversityConservationandResearch•PopulationPolicy•ScienceandTechnologyPolicy
Projectedchangesinclimatemayexacerbatebothnon-climateandclimatestressors.Forinstance,overgrazingandcollectionoffuelwoodcanexposethesoiltoerosion,whichcannegativelyaffectwateravailabilityandaccessibility.Thiscanaffectecosystemservicessuchassoilprotectionandwaterregulation,inturnloweringtheproductivityofotherservicesandproducts.Together,climateandnon-climatestressesmaycontributetolowlanddegradationanddesertification,resultinginadeclineintheresourcebasethatharmslowlandecosystemsandhastenstheneedtodevelopalternativelivelihoodoptions.
Institutional FrameworkTheNAPAprocesswasinitiatedandcoordinatedbytheNMA,thenationalfocalpointfortheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,withoverallguidanceandoversightprovidedbyaSteeringCommittee.TheSteeringCommitteeiscomprisedofmembersfromtheministriesofWaterResources,AgricultureandRuralDevelopment,andFinanceandEconomicDevelopment;agenciesforDisasterPreventionandPreparednessandScienceandTechnology;AddisAbabaUniversity;theInstituteofBiodiversityConservationandResearch;theEthiopianRuralEnergyPromotionandDevelopmentCenter ;andtheChristianReliefandDevelopmentAssociationrepresentingNGOs.TheimplementationofprojectsdescribedintheNAPAistobecoordinatedandledbytherelevantministry.
GOVERNMENT ADAPTATION PRIORITIESTheNAPAdevelopsalistof11projects(listedatright)prioritizedbytheGovernmentofEthiopia,whicharelargelyfocusedondecreasingvulnerabilityinthesectorsofagricultureandfoodsecurity,waterresources,forestry,andhealth.TheWorldBankhasidentifiedtheoverlapsbetweenadaptationprioritiesidentifiedintheNAPAandatnationalandlocalworkshopscarriedoutduringthecourseofitsstudy.Theiranalysishighlightscommon
Priority Adaptation Projects from NAPA•Promotingdrought/cropinsuranceprogram•Strengthening/enhancingdroughtandfloodearlywarningsystems•Developingsmall-scaleirrigationandwaterharvestingschemesinarid,semi-arid,anddrysub-humidareas•Improving/enhancingrangelandresourcesmanagementpracticesinpastoralareas•Community-basedsustainableutilizationandmanagementofwetlands•Buildingcapacityforclimatechangeadaptation•Realizingfoodsecuritythroughamulti-purposelarge-scalewaterdevelopmentprojectinGenale-DawaBasin•Community-basedcarbonsequestrationinRiftValleySystem•Establishinganationalclimateresearchcenter•Strengtheningmalariacontainmentprogramsinselectedareas•Promotingon-farmandhomesteadforestryandagroforestryinarid,semi-arid,anddrysub-humidareas
priorityareassuchasnaturalresourcesrehabilitation,waterharvesting,irrigation,pastoraldevelopment,reforestation,andagriculturalproductivity.
KEY PLAYERS AND INITIATIVESDonor-fundedadaptation-specificactivitieshavetendedtosupportnationalprioritiesthroughmainstreamingadaptationintodevelopmentpolicies,strategies,plans,andinstitutionalframeworks.Theactivitiesuseassessments,reports,andinitiativestostrengthenunderstandingofvulnerabilityandadaptationintheagricultureandfoodsecuritysector.Asthenumberofinitiativescontinuestoproliferate,coordinationwillbecomeincreasinglyimportanttominimizeduplicationofeffortsandenableleveragingofexistingresourcesandachievements.Keyinitiativesinclude:
CLIMATECHANGEADAPTATIONINETHIOPIA
Priority Challenges and Constraints for Addressing Vulnerability and Increasing ResilienceEthiopiafacesanumberofcross-cuttingchallengesandconstraintsinregardtovulnerabilityassessmentandadaptationplanningandimplementation.AsnotedintheNAPA,thesechallengesinclude:
• Lackofresearchanddevelopmentcapacitytoassesstheimpactsandconsequencesofclimatechange.
• Adearthofindividualswithspecializationinvulnerabilityandadaptationassessment,includinginsectorssuchasagriculture,waterresources,andhealth.
• Limitedskilledcapacity,facilities,andtechnologiestoprovideaccurateandtimelyweatherandclimateforecasts.
• Aweakinstitutionalframeworkfordealingwithclimatechange.
• Aneedforimprovedcoordinationandsynergyofadaptationactionsgenerallyandinspecificsectorsatbothnationalandsubnationallevels.
Addressingthesecapacity,institutional,andcoordinationconstraintsandneedswillcontributetoEthiopia’sabilitytocontinuetomoveforwardeffectivelyonimplementationofadaptationsthatsupportlong-termclimate-resilientdevelopment.
KEY SOURCES Boko, M., et al. Africa. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. 2007.
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources, National Meteorological Agency (NMA). National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). 2007. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/4585.php.
McSweeney, C., New, M., and Lizcano, G. UNDP Country Climate Profiles: Ethiopia. 2008. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/index.html?country=Ethiopia&d1=Reports.
Strzepek, K., et al. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. 2010. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/EACC_Ethiopia.pdf.
Thornton, P.K., et al. Agriculture and Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 2010. 369: 117-36.
Title Lead Organization Funding Source
ClimateChangeEnablingActivity(additionalfinancingforcapacitybuildinginpriorityareas)
UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)
GlobalEnvironmentFacility(GEF)
SupportingIntegratedandComprehensiveApproachestoClimateChangeAdaptationinAfrica-Ethiopia
UNDP GovernmentofJapan
CopingwithDroughtandClimateChange UNDP
RiskAversioninLowIncomeCountries:ExperimentalEvidencefromEthiopia
InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)
N/A
TheImpactofClimateChangeandAdaptationonFoodProductioninLow-IncomeCountries:EvidencefromtheNileBasin,Ethiopia
IFPRI N/A
GEF:SpecialClimateChangeFund
CLIMATECHANGEADAPTATIONINETHIOPIA
KEY SOURCESBoko, M., et al. Africa. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. 2007.
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources, National Meteorological Agency (NMA). National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). 2007. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/4585.php.
McSweeney, C., New, M., and Lizcano, G. UNDP Country Climate Profi les: Ethiopia. 2008. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://country-profi les.geog.ox.ac.uk/index.html?country=Ethiopia&d1=Reports.
Strzepek, K., et al. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. 2010. [cited 3 August 2011]. Available from: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/fi les/documents/EACC_Ethiopia.pdf.
Thornton, P.K., et al. Agriculture and Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 2010. 369: 117-36.
