Climate Change 2007 AM slides

Chair of the Conference

Mr Poul Christensen

Deputy Chairman, Natural England

Welcome Address

Vice Chancellor Professor Gordon Marshall

University of Reading

Keynote Address

Mr John Gilliland

ChairmanRural Climate Change Forum

GHGs from agriculture in UK

UK agriculture =

7% of UK GHG emissions

37% of UK methane emissions 67% of UK nitrous oxide emissions 1% of UK carbon dioxide emissions

Methane emissions: 1990 - 2005

Nitrous oxide emissions: 1990 - 2005

Manure management

Organic fertiliser

Grazing

Inorganic fertilisers

Other crop sources

Enteric fermentation

CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture

2005 – Carbon equivalent

43.8%

8.1%

10.5%

19%

12.3%

6.3%

Rural Climate Change Forum Established in 2005 High level Forum for dialogue

with Government Advice on policy,

communications and research Leadership for rural

stakeholders Steering delivery of

commitments in UK CCP

Structure

• Co-chairs:– John Gilliland– Defra Environment

Minister

Members: Natural England CLA Forestry Commission NFU National Trust RSPB Environment Agency Carbon Trust

Up until October 2008

What’s on the RCCF’s agenda?

• Market mechanisms for reducing GHGs from agriculture, forestry and land management

• What constitutes “good practice” by farmers to reduce GHGs?

• How best to communicate good practice• What are the impacts of climate change?• What are the opportunities for agriculture?

UK Climate Change Programme included a commitment to……

Examine the scope and feasibility of amarket-based mechanism to facilitate the trading of greenhouse gas (GHG)reductions from agriculture, forestry and other land management sectors

Is emissions trading for the sector possible?

Scoping study to look at….

Possible models:o Project-based – credits are awarded for

projects that reduce emissions, these can then be sold or bought

o Cap & trade – emissions cap is set for the sector, participants would have a certain number of allowances for emissions within the cap, which they could buy or sell

Potential abatement options Costs and benefits of options

What did the study say…

• Characteristics of sector make emissions trading difficult and expensive:o Lots of (small) unitso Diffuse sources of emissionso Emissions vary depending on boundarieso Additionalilty / permanence

• But a project-based scheme could be possible• Still early days!

David Miliband…… Request for RCCF’s advice on putting

behaviour change and new technologies into practice

NFU speech, Feb 2007

• Commissioned study to review existing research to identify (i) good practice by farmers and land managers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (ii) gaps in our knowledge

RCCF:

Headline messages from this project:• Do not exceed crop N requirements • Make full allowance of manure N supply • Spread fertiliser and manure at appropriate

times/conditions• Increase livestock N use efficiency• Make use of improved genetic resources (plant and

livestock)• Anaerobic digestion of farm manures• Change land use – to establish permanent grassland /

woodlands or grow biofuels / biomass crops

Some knowledge gaps…• Nitrous oxide – need for policies on mineral N

fertiliser application rate and timing; need for research on potential of nitrification inhibitors

• Methane – need to understand potential of dietary manipulation (e.g. forages and supplement); need for full lifecycle analysis of GHG benefits of AD

• Carbon – need to quantify carbon storage / GHG benefits of peatland restoration and management, arable reversion and reduced tillage

Climate change impactsMitigation is important but…..• We are already “locked in” to climate change for the next

30-40 years• Farmers among the first to feel these impacts • Need to adapt to changing pressures – e.g.:

– water shortages– increased risk of pests and diseases– the risk of heat stress in livestock .

• Failure to act now could result in huge financial losses in the long term

Climate change also presents opportunities for the sector:

• Longer growing seasons• Grow new crops e.g. a broader range of

oilseeds, vines, and energy crops to replace fossil fuels

• Provide more sustainable materials e.g. for construction

• Use anaerobic digestion to produce biogas• Produce crops and biomass for energy

Climate Change Bill - targets

• The first bill of its kind in the world

• Target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050 and 26-32% by 2020, against a 1990 baseline.

• Five-year carbon budgets will set binding limits on carbon dioxide emissions during five year budget periods, beginning with the period 2008-12.

Climate Change Bill – Committee on Climate Change

• Committee will advise the Government on the pathway to the 2050 target, specifically on:

– the level of carbon budgets– reduction effort needed by different sectors – optimum balance between domestic action and

international trading in carbon allowances.– whether the target should be broadened to

include UK emissions of other greenhouse gases

Climate Change Bill – enabling powers

• The Bill contains enabling powers to introduce new emissions trading schemes through secondary legislation.

• New schemes could cover new sectors and non-CO2 gases

Climate Change Bill – adaptation

• Government will undertake a risk assessment of climate change impacts and draw up a programme to respond to the risks. This will respect economic, social and environmental concerns.

• Defra is working closely with the Environment Agency and others to consider whether further adaptation measures are needed in the Climate Change Bill.

Conclusion:- This sector has a significant role to play in managing the impacts of climate change!

• Mitigating of wider GHGs• Flood risk management• Protecting biodiversity • Providing ecosystem services

– Water supply and quality– Reducing erosion

Climate Scenarios

Professor Julia Slingo

Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research

‘Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal’

– IPCC 4th Assessment

Report

Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years on

record since 1850

Global warming is real

IPCC AR4

Other evidence for Climate Change is stacking up

INCREASE

• Length of freeze free season

• Length of growing season

• More frequent heat waves

• Wetter winters/Drier summers

DECREASE

• Extent of mountain glaciers

• Sea-ice amounts and thickness

• Fewer Frosts

• Committed to further warming just from what we have already emitted.

• For the next 20-30 years the rate of global warming is largely insensitive to the different emission scenarios

Projected changes in global mean temperature for range of emission scenarios

Surface Temperature changes for 3 emission scenarios for various lead times

• Pattern of warming is not uniform –indication of much reduced warming over N. Atlantic possibly related to changes in Thermohaline Circulation

IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Projections of likely shifts in rainfall patterns

% change in rainfall by end of 21st century, where more than 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of the change.

White areas denote regions where no consistent signal is predicted e.g. Africa.

Global warming perturbs the water cycle very profoundly

Regional model projections of climate change by end of 21st century

A1B Scenario: 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

Negative Phase Positive Phase

Natural climate variability plays a significant role for the UK

North Atlantic Oscillation

Recent trends in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

Unprecedented warmth of N. Atlantic due to juxtaposition of global warming and

natural variability Courtesy: Rowan Sutton

N. Atlantic sea surface temperaturesGlobal sea surface temperaturesN. Atlantic minus Global sea surface temperatures

Changes in Extremes

Schematic of probabilities of daily temperatures

Assumes that statistics of weather stay the same, which is probably not the case due to feedbacks in

the climate system

IPCC AR4

Soil moisture feedbacks and summertime extremes

Change in summertime temperatures by 2071-2100 for A1B scenario

Mean Temperature

Increase in variability associated with increased summertime drying e.g. August

2003

% change in year-to-year variations

Air Quality and Plant Health

• Surface ozone is damaging to plants and humans by affecting ‘lung function’.

• Future projections of air quality are uncertain

• New research at Reading suggests that ‘ozone-friendly’ weather (e.g. anticyclonic conditions) may be more prevalent in the future

•Surface ozone levels at the height of the August 2003 heatwave.

•Thresholds considered dangerous to plants and humans were exceeded in many places.

‘Food Crops in a Changing Climate’: Royal Society Discussion Meeting 2005 Damage to

rice due to high temperature event at flowering

Current estimates of impacts of climate change on food production are likely to be over-optimistic by as much as 50% due to:• Damaging effects of surface ozone on crop physiology. Various studies have indicated that increased levels of near-surface ozone could reduce yields of some crops by up to 30% by 2050.

• Exceedance of critical temperature thresholds at flowering leading to loss of yield.

• Interactions between land use change and the water cycle affecting local weather patterns and run-off.

Concluding Remarks

• Global warming is ‘unequivocal’ and is ‘very likely’ due to human activities.

• High level confidence in global temperature change over the next few decades.

• But many aspects of climate change, especially those of relevance to farmers, remain uncertain:– Regional and local changes in rainfall and its

characteristics in space and time– Changes in the frequency and intensity of high

impact weather events e.g. heat waves, dry spells – Potential effects of surface ozone on plant health

Impact of Climate Change on Land Use

Professor Richard Ellis


Impact of climate change on land use: Plan

1. Climate change – carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature (T) impacts on crop yield

2. Gardens (public-private-garden supply)3. Land use and land use change4. Matrices or mosaics: important in the landscape

and also in biodiversity conservation (albeit at very different scales)

5. Impact on cropping & animal production & land use: individual farmer / forester / land owner / manager decisions. How to predict?

Climate change impacts and adaptation – land use

Predictions on land use that society requires or are likely to occur can only be made by

combining (quantitative) understanding across many, diverse

• disciplines (e.g. sciences from meteorology through agriculture to economics and psychology) and

• groups (e.g. academics and practitioners).

Research @ Reading late 1980s

- 1990s

Experimental system - grow crops along a temperature gradient in tunnels at different CO2 concentrations to study effects of T and CO2 simultaneously

Winter Wheat Note irrigation pipes: no moisture stress

Grown at set CO2 concentrations (current or elevated) along a temperature gradient (below to above ambient)

Wheat development (temperature gradient)

Cool Warm(+3 C)

More rapid development, Shorter crop duration, Less radiation capture, and so lower yields

Less rapid development, Longer crop duration, More radiation capture, and so higher yields

Effect of T and CO2 on wheat grain yield

• Increase in CO2: +ve impact• Increase in T: -ve impact• So “balance” of 2 variables’ effects• Modelling suggested: effect of doubling CO2 (1980s

values!) negated by a 4 C rise in T• We found … negated by a 1-2 C rise in T

What had earlier modelling missed?

Effect of maximum temperature (only brief periods) on grain set in winter wheat

(P. 69 of The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (HM Treasury, 2006) shows more

of Reading’s research on this topic)

0

10

20

30

40

20 25 30 35 40 45

Maximum air temperature (°C)

Num

ber

of g

rain

s pe

r ea

r

wheat

Summer rainfall will decrease

• More frequent and prolonged droughts• Main casualties - UK lawn, large trees -

especially beech - and many herbaceous perennials

• Hotter, drier conditions - favour pests such as spider mite, aphids and allow exotic pests to spread

• Iconic image of UK as a green and pleasant land under serious threat

Autumn and spring rainfall decrease

• Conditions for gardening and garden visiting will improve

• Earlier displays of bulbs and other spring flowers; brighter autumn colour

• Conservation of water more important• Return of autumn as the main planting

season?• Ending of summer drought a new stimulus

for gardening

Winter rainfall will increase ...BUT evaporation will also increase

• Lower soil moisture reserves in much of the country

• Potential for a more Mediterranean garden flora

• ….but the winter light climate will not be Mediterranean

• Wetter and warmer winters will favour the spread of root fungi, and may increase damage from water logging

Winter rainfall will be increasingly concentrated into heavy downpoursWinter rainfall will be increasingly

concentrated into heavy downpours

• Flood risks will increase

• The need for water conservation measures will become more important

Wind speeds are not expected to increase significantly as a result of

climate change

Wind speeds are not expected to increase significantly as a result of

climate change

• But small increase in wind speed may result in large increases in wind-throw especially as trees become larger

Recent Land Use Change• Land use – modification of the natural environment by

humans.

• Most important modification by humans world wide is deforestation and (e.g. our region initially, agro-pastoral systems).

• How rapidly has land use changed? (OSR rapid, late 1970s; but not land use change)

• Land use change is not novel, but pace of change in the countryside difficult to gauge year to year compared to urban development.

DEFRA data from www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/land/kf

Agricultural land use: 1986-2005 UK

Introdn of setaside

Forest and woodland cover: 1980-2005 UK

*** ***** Broadleaved

Area of woodland: 1924-2005 UK

WW1 WW2

Urbanisation in England

Planning(to protect important

landscapes)

National Parksand Areas of

Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) in

England, Wales and Northern Ireland

National Scenic Areas in Scotland

Greater recent use of “brownfield sites” (n.b. homes not areas)

LandscapeMosaic

NorthHants.

c. 10 miles South of this

campus

Severn Valley, Gloucestershire – water management?

*

Essex & East Coast – aridity & inundation?

1. Socio-economic change scenariosInternational Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios futures (IPCC, SRES)

UK Climate Impacts Programme refinements for UK

Basic Linked System World Food Trade model (BLS)

2. Climate change scenarioHadley Centre’s HadCM3 climate forcing projections

3. Consequences for land useUniversity of Reading’s Climate Land Use Allocation Model (CLUAM) Translates market, policy, technology and climate signals into land use changes

Modelling Future Changes in Land Use

Overview (Combination of 3 modules )

IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios futures

Scenarios selected were:A2 – low globalisation/market based solutions & B2 – low globalisation/sustainability led

Local

Stewardship

ConventionalDevelopment

Autonomy

Community

Interdependence

Consumerism

NationalEnterprise

WorldMarkets

GlobalSustainability

Low globalisation

High globalisation

Market-based solutions

Sustainability-led solutions

What sort of “future world”?

Basic Linked System World Food Trade model (BLS)

• Constructed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

• Framework for analysing world food trade system

• BLS is an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model system– All economic activities represented

• 34 national and/or regional geographical components– 18 single-country national models– 2 region models– 14 country groupings

• Market clearance (production and uses must balance)

• Recursively dynamic model, i.e., works in annual steps– For given prices calculate global

net exports and imports – Check market clearance for each

commodity– Revise prices. When markets are

balanced, accept prices as world market solution for year and proceed to next year

– Process repeated until world markets are simultaneously cleared in all commodities

BLS model based on 1996 prices: 1996 was therefore the baseline year

Climate Change & Cropping (England and Wales)

• Two stage process:– Meta analysis of

existing data on UK-specific crop yield changes due to climate change

– Decisions on where crops would not grow due to climate limits

1990s

Livestock Numbers, Crop andGrass Areas and Yields

Livestock Numbers, Crop andGrass Areas and YieldsCLUAM ITE : LCS

Experimental demand,yield and supply

data:

Demand ChangePrice Change

Experimentalenvironmental Data:

Climate ChangeYield Change

Specification and Calibrationof the model

Projection of Changes inLand Use and Production

Actual Land Use(MAFF June Census)

Input / Output Coefficients(production relationships fromfarm management type data)

Value of national inputs andoutputs to the agricultural

sector (DNIC)

• An LP model of England & Wales Agriculture

• Land base partitioned by CEH (formerly ITE) Land Classification System (LCS)

• Range of major land-using agricultural enterprises included– Outputs (revenue)– Inputs (costs)

• Model objective: maximize gross margin– Subject to various

constraints

The Economic Model (CLUAM, University of Reading)

Example outputs: National Land Use Changes

• Yield increases & static demand would reduce area of arable production• Addition of climate change modestly reduces yield increases, allows alternative

crops, so reducing scale of arable losses• Increase in extensive (low stocking rate) grass-based beef and sheep• Large areas of former arable land become “idle” (new use? fuel/fibre?)

National land cover areas A2/B2 2050Climate change & non-climate change

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

REF 1990s 2050 A2 2050 B2 CC 2050 A2 CC 2050 B2

ha

All idle

Rough

Perm

Ley

Other arable

Cereals+oil

Without climate change With climate change

A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions

The Kennet Catchment

• 59,773 ha of agricultural land in South Central England

• productive mixed farming, dominated by livestock production

• dominance of regularly re-seeded higher yielding grassland

• about one third of the area under arable

• little lower yielding permanent pasture or rough grazing

Land Use Change in the Kennet Catchment

Kennet land cover areas A2/B2 2050Climate change & non-climate change

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

REF 1990s 2050 A2 2050 B2 CC 2050 A2 CC 2050 B2

ha

All idle

Rough

Perm

Ley

Cereals+oil

Without climate change With climate change


Change in livestock numbers

Kennet livestock numbers A2/B2 2050Cliamte change & non-climate change

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

LS

U Sheep LSU

Beef LSU

Dairy LSU

Sheep LSU 18243 6 22058 4 348

Beef LSU 6608 6037 711 8133 980

Dairy LSU 21297 24604 18962 20799 24254

REF 1990s 2050 A2 2050 B2CC 2050

A2CC 2050

B2

LSU = Livestock Units


Conclusions• Climate change as a driver is less important than socio-

economic factors• Environmental benefits (lower chemical burden) could arise

from a reduced arable area and low intensity grass production

• But, extent of environmental benefits depends on what released land is used for

• If climate change provided agricultural diversification opportunities, then perhaps more arable production (e.g. fuel or fibre crops not represented in CLUAM) and a higher chemical burden

Future – Land Use and Climate ChangeDecisions

on land use change will be made by farmers, foresters and other land owners / managers

Within a rapidly-changing economic-social environment dictated by society (driven by an increasing global population’s demand for goods and services, including biodiversity, access, and aesthetics) through government policy and trade

Environmental change (of which climate change is but one component) will in due course have to be accounted for in the above if development is to be sustainable

Debatable how much (more) environmental change will have to occur before society changes

Business investment(in large part) will have to anticipate not only climate change but also anticipate (and perhaps lead) society’s expectations and legislation

Sustainability Green Brown Blue Red)

Sum of

Green - Vegetation, Biodiversity, Food-Fuel-Fibre Crop Production Brown – Soil (quantity quality)Blue - Water (quantity quality)

Red – Economics (financial viability: short- medium- long-term)

Investment essential – payback periods in which scenarios?

Where are “tipping points” for investment decisions?

“Are we (nearly) there yet”?

Climate change: are you ready? 25 September 2007


School of Agriculture, Policy and DevelopmentDepartment of Agriculture

Professor Richard EllisDr Tim Wheeler

Centre for Agricultural StrategyPhilip JonesRichard Tranter

School of Biological SciencesCentre for Horticulture and Landscape

Richard BisgroveProfessor Paul Hadley

Coffee Break

85

Dr. Jonathan ScurlockDr. Jonathan Scurlock

Agricultural impacts Agricultural impacts and opportunitiesand opportunities

Climate Change – are you ready?Climate Change – are you ready?

University of Reading, 25-Sep-2007University of Reading, 25-Sep-2007

86

Why CC is important for agricultureWhy CC is important for agriculture

• climate change is driving policy on reducing GHG climate change is driving policy on reducing GHG emissions at international, national and regional levelemissions at international, national and regional level

• EU and UK targets for renewable energy – for electricity, EU and UK targets for renewable energy – for electricity, transport fuels and heating (not yet)transport fuels and heating (not yet)

• agriculture will be impacted by climate change, and agriculture will be impacted by climate change, and must also anticipate/respond to regulationmust also anticipate/respond to regulation

• NFU believes this is more an opportunity than a threatNFU believes this is more an opportunity than a threat

• compatible with “Why Farming Matters” campaigncompatible with “Why Farming Matters” campaign

• agriculture is part of the solution to a public problemagriculture is part of the solution to a public problem

87

CC impacts on agricultureCC impacts on agriculture

Predicted physical impacts of climate change in the UK Predicted physical impacts of climate change in the UK 2010-2100:2010-2100:

• warmer temperatures overallwarmer temperatures overall

• milder, wetter wintersmilder, wetter winters

• hotter, drier summers hotter, drier summers (but not always!)(but not always!)

• more extreme weather incidents more extreme weather incidents

Effects of these changes on the land-based rural business Effects of these changes on the land-based rural business sector (agriculture, horticulture, forestry) likely to be sector (agriculture, horticulture, forestry) likely to be extremely complex and variable (NFU, 2005)extremely complex and variable (NFU, 2005)

88

Climate Change Task ForceClimate Change Task Force

• joint NFU / CLA / AIC activity on climate changejoint NFU / CLA / AIC activity on climate change

• demonstrate responsibility within agricultural sector, demonstrate responsibility within agricultural sector, anticipate future needs, promote changeanticipate future needs, promote change

• producing science-based report producing science-based report setting out what setting out what farmers and growers can do (and are already doing) to farmers and growers can do (and are already doing) to combat climate changecombat climate change

• high uncertainties surround estimates of GHG high uncertainties surround estimates of GHG emissions from agriculture – improvements need to be emissions from agriculture – improvements need to be measurable, without pollution swapping or export measurable, without pollution swapping or export

• emerging recommendations include nutrient emerging recommendations include nutrient management, feed changes to livestock productivity, management, feed changes to livestock productivity, sustainable energy – continue existing trendssustainable energy – continue existing trends

89

Are we ready? – what can farmers do?Are we ready? – what can farmers do?

• invest in water storage (winter reservoirs)invest in water storage (winter reservoirs)

• animal shelter and improved energy efficiencyanimal shelter and improved energy efficiency

• minimum/conservation tillage? – not yet proven to have minimum/conservation tillage? – not yet proven to have reduced GHG emissions overallreduced GHG emissions overall

• sustainable energy on-site – manage and substitute for sustainable energy on-site – manage and substitute for energy inputs energy inputs

• R.E. has good fit to farming business model – long R.E. has good fit to farming business model – long term, capital investment, control input costs, future term, capital investment, control input costs, future credit from GHG reductionscredit from GHG reductions

• supply biofuel commodities – OSR, wheat, wood fuel supply biofuel commodities – OSR, wheat, wood fuel

• become an energy exporter (wind, AD, etc.)become an energy exporter (wind, AD, etc.)

90

Energy use in UK agricultureEnergy use in UK agriculture

Headline figures (HRI/FEC, 2007):Headline figures (HRI/FEC, 2007):

• mostly electricity and petroleum (>1/3 each of delivered mostly electricity and petroleum (>1/3 each of delivered energy – HRI/FEC suggests even higher oil use) energy – HRI/FEC suggests even higher oil use)

• modest COmodest CO22 emissions (0.72% of total) compared to emissions (0.72% of total) compared to other sectors and food chain as a whole other sectors and food chain as a whole

• heating (40%), field ops (30%), ventilation (15%) are heating (40%), field ops (30%), ventilation (15%) are largest energy useslargest energy uses

• ag buildings insulation (esp hort) and biomass have ag buildings insulation (esp hort) and biomass have greatest potential for reducing energy/COgreatest potential for reducing energy/CO22 emissions emissions

• renewables only 0.1% but potential for zero carbonrenewables only 0.1% but potential for zero carbon

91

Renewable energy examplesRenewable energy examples

• Lee Moor Farm, Northumberland – 100 kW woodchip Lee Moor Farm, Northumberland – 100 kW woodchip boiler provides heat to tenanted business unitsboiler provides heat to tenanted business units

• Parkers Nurseries, Frinton, Essex - 700kW woodchip Parkers Nurseries, Frinton, Essex - 700kW woodchip boiler (2005) - clean waste wood, woodland residues. boiler (2005) - clean waste wood, woodland residues. 40-tonne fuel store, buffer tank, replaced 5 oil/gas 40-tonne fuel store, buffer tank, replaced 5 oil/gas boilers. boilers.

• Lowbrook Farm, Blandford, Dorset – 340kW biogas Lowbrook Farm, Blandford, Dorset – 340kW biogas digester – dairy manures and silage maize (proposed) digester – dairy manures and silage maize (proposed)

• Ensus ethanol plant, Teesside (under construction) – Ensus ethanol plant, Teesside (under construction) – 400 million litres/year from 1.2 million tonnes wheat, 400 million litres/year from 1.2 million tonnes wheat, start-up 2009start-up 2009

• Numerous wind farms, e.g. turkey processing, NorfolkNumerous wind farms, e.g. turkey processing, Norfolk

92

Perennial energy crops – a new sub-sectorPerennial energy crops – a new sub-sector

• SRC willow (harvested every three years) and SRC willow (harvested every three years) and miscanthus (harvested annually)miscanthus (harvested annually)

• Solid biomass fuel, together with environmental Solid biomass fuel, together with environmental services (high biodiversity, low inputs, low run-off)services (high biodiversity, low inputs, low run-off)

• However - loss of flexibility in marketing, cannot be However - loss of flexibility in marketing, cannot be diverted back to food uses like food-based feedstocksdiverted back to food uses like food-based feedstocks

Short rotation coppice willow MiscanthusShort rotation coppice willow Miscanthus

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Small-scale biofuel productionSmall-scale biofuel production

• HM Revenue and Customs – simplification of HM Revenue and Customs – simplification of regulations from Summer 2007, allow 2500 litres/year regulations from Summer 2007, allow 2500 litres/year without registration or payment of fuel excise dutywithout registration or payment of fuel excise duty

home-made biodiesel processor commercial processor small oil presshome-made biodiesel processor commercial processor small oil press

2500 litres/year is the fuel consumption of one small commercial vehicle doing 11000 miles at 2500 litres/year is the fuel consumption of one small commercial vehicle doing 11000 miles at 20 mpg - or one or more diesel cars totalling 25,000 miles at 45 mpg20 mpg - or one or more diesel cars totalling 25,000 miles at 45 mpg

94

Thank youThank you

Dr Jonathan ScurlockDr Jonathan Scurlock

Chief Policy Adviser, Renewable Energy, Climate Change Chief Policy Adviser, Renewable Energy, Climate Change and Non-Food Cropsand Non-Food Crops

National Farmers’ UnionNational Farmers’ Union

Stoneleigh ParkStoneleigh Park

Warwicks CV8 2TZ Warwicks CV8 2TZ [email protected]@nfu.org.uk

Environmental Impacts and Water Usage

Mr Robert Runcie

Environment Agency

Water Framework Directive:A new opportunity

Many organisations working together

Long-term planning

Applied across Europe

Help manage the impacts of climate change

Aims of the Directive

Prevent deterioration and enhance status of water environment

Promote sustainable water use

Reduce pollution

Help to mitigate effects of floods and droughts

Good Ecological Status / Potential

Biology

Chemical water quality

Physical structure

Water quantity

Protection to Higher Standards

Protected areas e.g. recreational waters, nutrient sensitive waters, conservation sites, drinking water sources

No deterioration

Getting the balance right Taking account of

different pressures environmental social economic

Risk based approach

Impact of Climate Change

River Basin Management Plans

Statutory strategic regional plans for water

Environmental objectives for each water body

Programmes of Measures

Nine River Basin Districts in England and Wales; two cross border (Solway Tweed & Northumbria)

The Thames River Basin District

Taking account of climate change

Mean 12 month Central England Temperature ranks(Top 20 warmest 12-month periods ending with month shown 1659 - 2007)

10.60

10.80

11.00

11.20

11.40

11.60

11.80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rank

Me

an

CE

T (

oC

)

April 2007

Oct

1995

May 2

007

June 2

007

Marc

h 2

007

Feb 2

007

Jan 1

997

Sept

1995

April 1990

Dec 2

006

April 1948

Feb 1

998

May 1

990

June 1

998

May 1

998

Mar

1948

Mar

1998

July

1822

Nov 1

995

Last updated: 3rd August 2007Source: Met Office - Hadley Centre for Climate Change

1659 - 1989

1990 - 2006

2007July

2007

Drought

Flooding

TE2100

Flood Defence Operations

Thames Barrier Tidal and Fluvially dominated Closuresas at 20 March 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

82/8

3

83/8

4

84/8

5

85/8

6

86/8

7

87/8

8

88/8

9

89/9

0

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

Years

No

of

Clo

su

res

Tidal Fluvially dominated

The Facts behind the Fiction

Risks posed by climate change to good ecological status

Changing river flows and sea level(hydro-morphological parameters)

Changes in flora and fauna (biological parameters)

More frequent flushing of CSOs (physio-chemical parameters)

Significant Water Management Issues

• Point source discharges

• Low flow

• Physical modification

• Changing land management practices

• Future development

• Urban run-off (including flood risk management)

• Aquatic alien species

Some solutions

Wildlife refuges

Key deadlines

July 2007: Significant Water Management Issues (out for consultation)

Dec 2008: Draft River Basin Management Plan

Dec 2009: Thames River Basin Management Plan

Making a lasting difference

Long-term programme of environmental improvement

Working with challenges: Climate change Protecting wildlife New homes and

flooding risk

Further Information:www.environment-agency.gov.uk/[email protected]

Lunch time

Climate Change 2007 AM slides

Technology

Transcript of Climate Change 2007 AM slides