CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT...
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Transcript of CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT...
CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO
DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT
R. Magno, A. Crisci, L. Genesio –Ibimet CNR
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
“Procedures and guidance of appropriate zoning methodologies and promotion of their application”
DESERTIFICATON
The aims of the UNCCD and the National Action Plans are:
• to assess areas subjected to a desertification risk, adopting methodologies repeatable in several socio-geographical context
• to provide tools for the public authority to prevent and mitigate such phenomenon, in order to ensure a sustainable land planning
• monitoring the evolution of the land degradation processes
Desertification is “land degradation(*) in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas due to various factors, including climatic variations and human activities” (UNCCD)
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
(*)Land degradation = loss of soil productivity
DISMED and DESERTNET Projects
The international and inter-regional DISMED and DESERTNET-Interreg IIIB MEDOCC projects have been developed on the basis of the climatic analysis to identify the desertification sensitive areas, to produce thematic maps and to implement the approved methodology of ESAs (MEDALUS Project), that analyses the various components of the land degradation process
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
The large number of climatic, biological, pedological and socio-economical indicators that can be used in the ESAs (Environmental Sensitive Areas to desertification) methodology make it versatile and applicable to the various geographical context
- To suggest a proper methodology for the definition of the hydrological balance esteem, in terms of desertification and land degradation due to the climate factors at different scale (from regional to local)
- Implementation of the climate analysis methods at regional level (Mediterranean basin) and at local level (Tuscany) in order to develop a cartography of the desertification sensitivity (Aridity index)
- Integration of the climate analysis with vegetation, soil and human pressure indices to define critical areas for the Tuscany region
THE CONTRIBUTION OF IBIMET-CNR
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
CLIMATIC ANALYSIS
Parameters: - Rainfall (daily and monthly data)
- Min, max and mean temperature (daily and monthly data)
- ETP Thornthwaite “corrected” (monthly data)
Period of analysis: - 1961/1990 (reference 30 years for IPCC-WMO)
- 1991/2000 (current period) (Tuscany)
Spatialization of meteorological data: analysis of several methods
Final products: - Maps of AI (Aridity Index)
- Percentage of AI variation (Tuscany)
- SPI Standardized Precipitation Index (Tuscany)
Time scale: - Year
- Season
- Month
METEOROLOGICAL INDICATORS MONITORING
Hence the need to have widespread, accurate and continuous monitoring of temperature, rainfall and all phenomena related to them.
MONITORING
METEOROLOGICAL GAUGES DATA
REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS(homogeneous distribution)
(scattered and not continuous)
- GEOSTATISTICS methods of climatic parameters estimation- Data availability on a long period
but
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
Spatialization of climatic data: RMSE analysis
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Febbraio Aprile Luglio Ottobre
Mese
RM
SE
Cokriging
Kriging
Mreg-Kres
GWR
Monthly rainfall
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
FebbraioAprileLuglioOttobre
Mese
RM
SE
(°C)
Cokriging
Kriging
Mreg-Kres
GWR
Monthly max temperatureMonthly min temperature
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Febbraio Aprile Luglio OttobreMese
RM
SE
Cokriging
Kriging
Mreg-Kres
GWR
Rainfall data: random properties of spatial variability
Thermometric data: substantially affected by geographic characteristics of the area
RAINFALL
TEMPERATURE
Available stations
Available stations
360 + 120 FILES
PERIOD 1961-90 1991-00
360 + 120 FILES
PERIOD 1961-90 1991-00
CLIMATIC DATA SPATIALIZATION
COKRIGING
MULTIREGRESSIVE + KRIGING OF RESIDUALS
ETP Thornthwaite
12*30 + 12*10 RASTER MAPS
TEMP.
12*30 + 12*10 RASTER MAPS
RAINFALL
ETP
12*30 + 12*10 RASTER MAPS
ARIDITY INDEX
2 MAPS (61-90; 91-00)
CLIMATIC DATABASE
PENMAN CORRECTION
Penman
Tthornthwaite
Underestimate in particularly dry areas
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
Mean Yearly Temperature: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area
Mean Yearly Precipitation: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
Mean Yearly Evapotranspiration: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
Mean Yearly Aridity Index: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
Using DISMED approach, DESERTNET Project emphasize the dynamic feature of the climate analysis
Following the ESAs methodology, other specific aspects of desertification process on the Tuscany region are taken in to account (vegetation, soil, land management, human pressure)
SAME APPROACH - DIFFERENT SCALE
THE ARIDITY INDEX ANALYSIS
Aridity can affect a region during a specific period, season or even all over the year
TIME SCALE
SEASON
YEAR
For a good land management is important to know when the critical period occurs
The annual analysis of more then 100 gauges in Tuscany did not show any areas affected by the aridity.But in fact, a large part of the region has turned out to be semi-arid or sub-humid dry in spring and summer seasons.
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
DESERTNET Project: the TUSCANY case
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
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At the annual level the low ETP and the autumn and winter rainfall mitigate the aridity
ANNUAL ARIDITY INDEX
This phenomenon can greatly affect the agricultural activities and the yield production
SPRING ARIDITY INDEX
SUMMER ARIDITY INDEX
At the seasonal level, particularly in spring and summer periods, a large portion of Tuscany suffers from a strong aridity (0.2-0.5 is the range of semi-arid zones in the UNEP classification)
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
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Positive value = increasing of aridity in the last 10 years
Negative value = decreasing of aridity in the last 10 years
DINAMIC ANALYSIS OF ARIDITY INDEX
100AI
AIAIvar AI %0091
00919061
DROUGHT IN TUSCANY: the SPI
Agricultural drought events
Not unusual during hottest season
In the last decade increase in winter
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
Winter drought events are not limited in the arid areas, but are diffused in most of the Tuscany region
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
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WINTER SPI
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SPI MAPS% of drought events frequency % of drought events frequency variation
100frequency
frequencyfrequency freq. drought % Var.
9061
90610091
ESAI = (CQI * SQI * VQI * MQI * HPI)1/5
ESAI - Environmental Sensitive Areas Index
CQI
VQI
SQI
MQI
HPI
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION: OVERLAP OF CRITICAL AREAS
ESAI
Turist density - year 2000
Portata del fiume Arno a Subbiano
Sibolla lake
Annual net balance of CO2
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
CQI - Climatic Quality Index
CQI = (AI61-90 * % AI61-00 Var. * Drought Freq.61-90 * % Drought Freq 00-61 Var. )1/4
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
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VQI - Vegetation Quality Index
VQI = (Erosion protection * Drought resistance * Land cover * Fire risk)1/4
Rischio strutturale di incendio
Copertura da NDVI (TM)
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
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MQI - Management Quality Index
MQI = (Protection policies * Land management)1/2
Environmental policy = (National parks * Regional parks * Directive Habitat 92/43-Bioitaly)1/3
Land management = ((var % SAU/municipal area) * (SAU bio/SAU) * (SAU irrigated/SAU) * (grass-pasture/SAU) * (UBA/SAU))1/5
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
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HPI – Human Pressure Index
HPI = (Population density 2001 * % of
population density variation2001-1961 *
Tourist density2001 * % Tourist
density variation2001-1993)1/4
WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE
Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005
CONCLUSIONS
• The results of the two DISMED and DESERTNET Project show that the climate analysis and its dynamic variation are of great importance for defining the desertification vulnerability at different scales
• Sensitive areas are affected by a various critical factors and elements that determine the loss of productivity of the soil; but not necessarily the same level of vulnerability is due to the overlap of the same critical factors
• Nevertheless in areas affected by negative climate conditions human pressure accelerate land degradation processes
• Is possible to compare the map of desertification vulnerability with maps of other types of environmental problems