CHRISTCHURCH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY...

Canterbury Development Corporation

Prepared by Canterbury Development Corporation

CHRISTCHURCH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY2014

02

Andrew Fitzpatrick, Manufacturing Engineer, Fabrum Solutions Ltd at the opening of their new factory in Sockburn

christchurch economic development strategy 2014

04 Executive Summary 05 Forecasting Growth Futures for Christchurch

06 Introduction 11 Vision, Goals & Priorities

13 Action Plan 20 Monitoring

21 Summary of Background Information 23 Glossary of Terms

Contents

Christchurch Economic Development Strategy 2014

03

EXEC SUMMARY


What we know is that there are several possible economic futures for Christchurch City which will be determined by the decisions and investment choices made today.

The Christchurch Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) brings together the views of various businesses and agencies in the region to identify ways in which to optimise our economy so that by 2031 Christchurch has a higher quality of life, better income, greater employment and is a vibrant and growing city attracting people from around the globe. The Canterbury Development Corporation (CDC) is the local Economic Development Agency and is funded by the Christchurch City Council (CCC) to facilitate this consultation and review the strategy following the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011.

Understanding and plotting an economic trajectory in a post-earthquake environment has been a complex and challenging task, and we expect to continue learning over the coming years.

What we know is that there are several possible economic futures for Christchurch City which will be determined by the decisions and investment choices made today. This Strategy is a guide to maximise those opportunities.

The CEDS process has identified five large-scale opportunities which have the potential to step-change our economy – ‘The Big 5’. In addition, there is a longer list of development initiatives which are required to ‘Keep the City Competitive’ with other cities and regions. Successful implementation of the Strategy’s ‘Big 5’ and ‘Keeping the City Competitive’ projects has the potential to place GDP 54% higher than it is today, by 2031.

Economic development strategies for a city tend to describe which projects the local Economic Development Agency proposes to undertake.

In contrast, this Strategy attempts to capture and represent all projects in the region that return economic development outcomes to the city alongside projects which CDC will implement. It recognises the relationship between the regional economy and the city, in particular the agriculture sector. It lists the new projects currently being scoped, the projects under way, and identifies existing and new lead agencies for all of the projects that are key to the development of the economy.

This approach makes it a broad plan, but provides a clearer strategic picture and better understanding of the interdependencies between economic development projects and the various agencies and businesses that lead or are involved in them.

A key component is the integration of this Strategy with earthquake recovery planning managed by the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA). There has been a combined effort to integrate CEDS with CERA’s Economic Recovery Plan (ERP) and ensure they are consistent and complementary.

CDC has multiple roles to play in the realisation of CEDS:

» Ensuring that key opportunities are realised

» Leading projects in the areas where it has recognised expertise

» Participating in projects led by other agencies, where CDC can add value

» Ensuring the private sector is encouraged to be involved in all projects

» Monitoring and reporting overall economic progress and advocating on behalf of the Christchurch City economy

Executive Summary

04


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2001

20

02

2003

20

04

2005

20

06

2007

20

08

2009

20

10

2011

20

12

2013

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2015

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2017

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2019

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2021

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2023

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2025

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2027

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28

2029

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2031

0

50000

100000

150000

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250000

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350000

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450000

500000

2001

20

02

2003

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04

2005

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2007

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2011

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20

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2023

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24

2025

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2027

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28

2029

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2031

$m, 9

5/96

Source: CDC, Infometrics, Statistics New Zealand, Market Economics

Source: CDC, Statistics New Zealand, Market Economics

Note: Methodology for calculating GDP growth paths is outlined in Section 6 of the Background Paper at www.cdc.org.nz. These projections have been updated using data available in January 2014.

Christchurch GDP Projections

Christchurch Population Projections

1 Modelled by CDC using 10 similar-sized declining US cities with an average growth rate of 0.1%

Forecasting Growth Futures for Christchurch GDP can be 69% higher in

2031 than 2012 if the city is successful in delivery of `The Big 5’ and `Keeping the City Competitive’ projects.

The accumulated value of the shaded area to Christchurch’s economy is an additional $24 billion.

In doing projects that keep the city competitive with other cities, Christchurch’s baseline GDP is projected to grow at 2.4%.

In a declining economy a city struggles to retain baseline competitiveness, losing working age population and key industry1.

DeclineAttractive CityBaseline

Actual (estimated)

Baseline Declining EconomyUpper Band

Actual (estimated) Baseline (no rebuild)

05

INTRODUCTION


By setting a common course, engaging with the business community and investing in shared goals, better economic outcomes will be achieved.

The Canterbury Development Corporation (CDC) prepares and reviews the city’s economic development strategy on behalf of the Christchurch City Council.

Local government’s role in economic and business development complements its role in providing a better quality of life for residents. The city’s community outcomes2 are to provide a liveable city, prosperous economy, strong communities, good governance and a healthy environment.

The purpose of the Christchurch Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) is to identify long-term growth goals and priorities to 2031 that will create a better

quality of life and a strong and prosperous economy. By setting a common course, engaging with the business community and investing in shared goals, better economic outcomes will be achieved.

The initial version of CEDS was completed in September 2010 just before the first earthquake. It involved a large-scale research and consultation process (economic modelling; 120 businesses surveyed face to face; 600 businesses interviewed by telephone; workshops). It was not fully released but provided a pre-earthquake snapshot of the economy, its drivers and the opportunities for improvement.

Since 2010, the economy of

Christchurch and the wider region has been significantly affected by the earthquakes. The resulting temporary and permanent resource and industry relocation is a key context-changer of the economy along with the continuing effects of the global financial crisis. The 2013 CEDS refresh adjusts for these changes. It also recognises the economic value of the rural sector to the city economy and the amendments made in 2012 to the Government’s Business Growth Agenda.

Introduction

2 Christchurch City Council Long Term Plan, www.ccc.govt.nz3 CDC economic research paper available online at www.cdc.org.nz

The Background Paper collates and synthesises macro-economic data, statistics, trends, forecasts and research relevant to the city and regional economy. The Background Paper includes sections on GDP, the labour market, sector performance and earthquake effects. It establishes an Australasian benchmarking framework and forecasts possible economic futures. It provides the background detail to assumptions and decisions made in CEDS.

CEDS should be read in conjunction with the Background Paper3.

06

INTRODUCTION


A City within a Regional Economy

Christchurch City was first settled by M ori around 1250 and settled by Europeans around 1840. Christchurch evolved as a hub for regional primary production, processing and export and it continues to support regional production through sectors such as business services, logistics, research and development and manufacturing. The city economy can not be considered without considering its relationship with the wider region, in particular the agriculture sector. This view is intended to encourage agencies across boundaries to collaborate on regional and national economic development projects.

CEDS takes a regional view of economic activity that benefits the city.

07

08

A city with GDP growth will generally mean that businesses are producing more goods and services, there are greater employment opportunities, higher average wages and more career prospects as businesses demand more labour.

GDP growth can also lead to improved community wellbeing. It leads to higher tax revenue for government and revenue for councils, which can be invested in to improving city facilities and services. More spending power makes public services such as healthcare and education more affordable.

If GDP is not growing it is likely that work opportunities and spending power are not increasing.

A city that is not growing, risks losing skilled workers and businesses to more competitive cities and a decline in spending power and quality of living.

Growing GDP matters to the economy and the community.

Central city worker, Thomas McNaughton, clearing emails on the banks of the Avon River.


PO

PU

LAT

ION

420,850NEWCASTLE

436,056CHRISTCHURCHGREATER

592,389GOLD COAST

1,415,550AUCKLAND (REGION)

AUCKLAND • GOLD COAST

CHRISTCHURCH3 P E R M A N E N T INTERNATIONALAIRPORTS

CONVENTION CENTRE CAPACITY

9,000GOLD COAST

7,528NEWCASTLE

8,000HAMILTON

5,400HOBART

4,500AUCKLAND

2,000*CHRISTCHURCH

900SUNSHINE COAST

800WOLLONGONGWE ALL HAVE LIBRARIES

* Anchor Projects as proposed in the CCDU Blueprint PlanNote: All figures are as at Q1, 2014Sources include: Statistics New Zealand, Austalian Bureau of Statistics

Shh...

283,243WOLLONGONG

286,497SUNSHINE COAST

205,557GREATER HOBART

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

STADIUM CAPACITY

35,000*CHRISTCHURCH

50,000AUCKLAND

27,500HAMILTON

23,150WOLLONGONG

18,000HOBART

33,000NEWCASTLE

27,400GOLD COAST

12,000SUNSHINE COAST

CANTERBURYHOBART

AUCKLAND

7.5%

6.2%

6.3%

7.5%

3.4%

WOLLONGONG

NEWCASTLE

GOLD COAST

SUNSHINE COAST

WAIKATO

4.1%4.9%

6.7%

188,280HAMILTONGREATER

Additional Notes: An Australasian city hierarchy has been developed using population as a base. Cities of a similar size will have similar characteristics and by developing a tier system we are able to undertake sensible comparisons for Christchurch, a tier-three city. Wellington and Canberra have been excluded because as capital cities they have unique drivers. More information on this hierarchy can be found on Pg 11 of the Background Paper at www.cdc.org.nz

AUCKLAND • CHRISTCHURCH • HOBART • WOLLONGONG • GOLD COAST • NEWCASTLE • HAMILTON • SUNSHINE COAST

SIMILAR-SIZED AUSTRALASIAN CITY COMPARISONSHOW DO WE ALL STACK UP

09


CEDS is a long-term economic development strategy and the ERP is a recovery-focused work programme.

The integration process has been actively managed through staff secondments, project groups and information sharing between CDC, CERA and other agencies. CDC has been involved in the development of CERA’s Recovery Strategy as a standing member of the Partnership for Economic Prosperity and Recovery (PEPR) Group. CDC has also provided staff on a secondment basis to the CERA Infrastructure Team, Economic Recovery Team and the planning process for workforce recovery. In addition, CDC staff advised on the CCDU Blueprint Plan.

CEDS has been developed alongside the Economic Recovery Programme (ERP), which is a key pillar of the overall CERA Recovery Strategy for greater Christchurch.

10


VISION

4 Australasian city hierarchy model; refer to Section 1 of the Background Paper at www.cdc.org.nz5 All figures in real terms (excluding inflation adjustments)

GOALS

Christchurch has the best economic ranking against Tier Three cities in Australasia4. Quality of living matches a Tier Two city in Australasia

Total GDP has grown by 69% to $21.7bil5 (GDP per capita by 38% (2012-2013))

Exports to China have increased by 140%, reaching $719mil5 by 2031

In 2031, 20% of the 15–64 aged population in employment in current high-growth enabling sectors: Agriculture; Manufacturing; Information Media and Telecommunications; Finance and Insurance; and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.

The proportion of the working age population with a post-high school qualification has increased from 40% to 45%. The proportion of the working age population with a Bachelor qualification or higher has increased from 20% to 26%

To achieve the vision, by 2031 our goals are:

Our vision for the economy of Christchurch is that in 2031 Christchurch is recognised as the best place for business, work, study and living in Australasia.

11

PRIORITIES


Maximising earthquake

recovery opportunities

Earthquake recovery spending on new

infrastructure, facilities and buildings is

efficient and effective *(~$30bil between

2011-2018)

Effective water resource management

Increasing irrigation potential and productivity in the Canterbury Plains but not at

the expense of the environment *(~$1-2bil paid

from 2018)

Improving productivity through

innovationBusinesses using

new ideas, the latest technology, new buildings

and modern working techniques to improve

productivity and develop a competitive edge *(~$135mil per annum

from 2015 and continuing to improve)

Successful central city design and build

Creating a culturally attractive and vibrant

city centre that attracts new businesses and

people, and improving productivity in a more

condensed CBD *(4% productivity

gain within the CBD from 2018)

Increased import & export

distributionnetworksMeeting the

Government’s China export growth

targets *(additional ~$40mil per annum

from 2015)

If these opportunities are maximised it would move the economy off the projected baseline economic growth path and improve the city’s chances of success in the attraction and retention of residents, migrants and businesses,

further strengthening economic growth.

‘THE BIG 5’ GDP GAME CHANGERS

*Note: For further information and sources for values, refer to Appendix 6 of the Background Paper at www.cdc.org.nz

Cities, much like organisations, need to find ways to continuously improve their operating environment to remain competitive and create periods of competitive advantage over other cities. Large step-changes in GDP are unlikely to result from these initiatives, but they are

important in terms of retaining a competitive proposition for businesses and the labour force.

INITIATIVES THAT KEEP THE CITY COMPETITIVE WITH OTHER CITIES

Business DevelopmentCreation, growth,

capability, retention and attraction of business to

the region

Making it easier to do business

Ensuring regular dialogue between the private and

public sector to ensure the regulatory environment and

process is as easy as possible to engage with

WorkforceAddressing the ageing population, developing solutions for local labour and skills shortages and

increasing workforce productivity

Investment VehiclesImproving access to

capital for local businesses

Connections and Business NetworksImproving Christchurch’s connectedness at a local, national and international

level, enhancing the ability to do business and share ideas

Sector DevelopmentDeveloping growth sectors within the economy (Technology, Health, High Value-Added Manufacturing,

International Education, Professional Services and AgriTech) and managing sector level market

failures in the economy

Supporting InnovationSupporting innovation

and commercialisation and enhancing the linkages between the research

community and business community

InfrastructureEnsuring infrastructure and land use decisions

support economic growth

ACTION PLAN

12


PMO

Proj

ects

CD

C’s

rol

eA

ctio

n Pl

an

The CDC Project Management Office (PMO) is responsible for implementation and monitoring of the city’s economic development programme and periodically reviewing the CEDS document. PMO progress reports will give the business community a strategic view of all economic development projects, their status and interdependencies.

There are a total of 70 projects listed, of which 14 have been completed.

Of the 70 projects, CDC has completed 7, is leading 10 projects and will be developing a further 8.

CDC has multiple roles in CEDS. It will lead some projects in areas where it has recognised expertise and participate, where appropriate, in projects led by other organisations. It will ensure that there is private sector involvement in all projects and opportunities are realised.

The CEDS Action Plan, on pages 15 to 20, outlines projects that contribute to economic development and achieving the goals of CEDS. It will evolve and change over time, incorporating new project ideas and work programmes that benefit the Christchurch economy.

ACTION PLAN

13


1 Maximising Earthquake Recovery Opportunities

2Effective Water

Resource Management

3 Improving Productivity

Through Innovation

4 Successful Central

City Design & Build

5 Increased Import & Export

Distribution Networks

THEBIG

14


Develop and implement opportunities for digital content and capability improvements that accelerate and leverage ultra-fast broadband uptake

CDC & Enable In progress

Establish CRIS as a Commercialisation Partner focused on improving and maximising successful commercialisation of innovation in Canterbury as part of the Commercialisation Partner Network (CPN) being established by MBIE

CDC Completed

Establish a better understanding of the nature and quantum of incremental innovation happening in the region within business and identify ways in which we can better support and develop this

CDC New project

Support incremental innovation in business throughout the region by enhancing connectedness within the innovation ecosystem, better linking research and business communities

CDC New project

Investigate methods to improve workplace productivity and find ways to enable businesses to implement them effectively

CDC In progress

Actions Lead Agency Status

Implement the Central City Blueprint starting with land acquisitions for the Anchor Projects CCDU In progress

Deliver Anchor Projects as per the cost share agreement between the Crown and the CCC: The Frame, Convention Centre Precinct, Stadium, Metro Sport Facility, Bus Exchange, Avon River Precinct, Earthquake Memorial, Health Precinct, Retail Precinct, Justice and Emergency Service Precinct, Innovation Precinct, Residential Demonstration, Te Puna Ahurea Cultural Centre, The Square (joint with CCC)

CCDU In progress

Deliver Anchor Projects as per the cost share agreement between the Crown and the CCC: Performing Arts Precinct, Central Library, Cricket Oval, The Square (joint with CCDU)

CCC In progress

Accelerate the recovery effort by enabling improved sharing and use of location-based information; Canterbury Spatial Data Infrastructure programme

LINZ In progress

Secure public sector funding for the rebuild of Christchurch (infrastructure, facilities, buildings) CERA Completed

Develop and promote an investment proposition and proposals to showcase opportunities in greater Christchurch

CERA In progress

Ensure issues over availability of insurance and resolution of claims do not hinder investment or slow the rebuild, and ongoing insurance cover is provided under the new risk profile

CERA In progress

Convene a City Image group to produce a cohesive city image for use in the attraction and retention of people, visitors, businesses and investment

To be determined New project

Provide an easier path through the building consent system (this will require the developer of low-damage technologies to provide evidence that their system meets the Building Code)

MBIE New project

Encourage the use of sustainable technologies during the rebuild CCC In progress

Redevelop suburban centres and towns in greater Christchurch CCC In progress

Rebuild the University of Canterbury; $1.1 billion, 10 year capital works programme UC New project

Rebuild the city's earthquake-damaged roads, freshwater, wastewater and stormwater networks (horizontal infrastructure)

SCIRT, CERA, CCC & NZTA

In progress

Take a strategic approach to rebuild procurement considering demands on the construction sector, housing, workforce, and supply chains; and cost escalation

CERA lead / MBIE / Treasury

New project

Work to increase productivity in the construction sector to support the recovery MBIE In progress

Implement the Canterbury Water Management Strategy – develop and deliver Regional Implementation Plan (RIP), Zone Implementation Plans (ZIPs) and the Canterbury Land & Water Regional Plan

ECan In progress

In progress

In progress

Develop a knowledge base on the Canterbury rural economy and articulate the benefits possible from improving management of existing irrigation infrastructure and developing new irrigation infrastructure

CDC

Research into the potential economic gains from crop diversification, added value processing of rural products and technology innovation to improve nutrient management

CDC

Develop an integrated domestic and international terminal at Christchurch International Airport CIAL Completed

Reclaim 10ha of land utilising recycled hard fill from earthquake demolition activities for critical port infrastructure at Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, supporting the port’s rebuild programme and future growth

LPC In progress

Increase the exposure of New Zealand companies to appropriate markets in China by establishing a network to improve the co-ordination of China delegations through shared ideas and information

LGNZ In progress

New projectUndertake a gap analysis on export capability development services in Christchurch with a view to enhancing products and services offered

CDC

15


WO

RK

FOR

CE

In progress

In progress

New project

Completed (now an ongoing service)

Completed (now an ongoing service)

New project

In progress

New project

In progress

KEEPING THE CITY COMPETITIVE


Create sector workforce plans that articulate the immediate, short and long-term workforce needs of the sector and identify what is required to accelerate recovery of the sector and provide the foundation for long-term economic growth

CERA/CDC

Establish an integrated information system including a quarterly snapshot of the labour market, an annual rolling labour report and quarterly sector workforce reports and statements

CDC

Develop a sophisticated and targeted people and business attraction plan to attract highly skilled and productive people and value-adding business

CDC

Establish an Employment and Skills Hub, a help service for employers to fill job vacancies that support the Canterbury rebuild

MBIE

Establish the Canterbury Skill Shortage List, a list which highlights occupations in shortage that are needed during the rebuild in Canterbury

MBIE

Examine the economic opportunities and the risks associated with Canterbury’s ageing population

CDC

Provide additional places for construction-related trades training for the Canterbury rebuild, and trial new flexible study and work options

TEC

Establish support schemes, local funding models and better connections between education and workplaces that better link students with business and more effectively encourage internships, apprenticeships, workplace training for youth or allow skill upgrades while working

CDC

Contribute to implementing Sector Workforce Plans produced under a previous CEDS project by raising the profile of the Christchurch technology and manufacturing sectors and the employment opportunities within these sectors amongst the education community locally and the skilled worker community domestically and offshore.

CDC

16


SUPP

ORT

ING

INN

OVA

TIO

N

Completed

Completed

In progress

In progress

In progress

In progress

New project

In progress

In progress

Completed

New project


Establish a safe haven for 20 technology companies displaced by the Canterbury earthquakes and in doing so prototype a new type of entrepreneur community (EPIC Sanctuary)

EPIC innovation

Establish the southern delivery arm of the National Health Innovation Hub CDHB

Establish a rural technology park in Templeton (close to key stakeholders, researchers, customers, suppliers and facilities) to assist start-ups and SMEs overcome the premises challenge often encountered by young and smaller companies

Maugers Construction Ltd

Develop a collaborative project between Lincoln University and the Lincoln-based Crown Research Institutes to focus on Agritech innovation (Lincoln AgriScience Hub)

Lincoln University

Complete the business case and secure funding for the pilot plant for Food Innovation South Island based in Christchurch

Callaghan Innovation / CDC

Explore ways to incorporate sensors in to the city during the rebuild, creating a more intelligent and connected city

Sensing City

Increase visibility of current innovation activities (public and private) happening in the region and of the support available for good ideas

CDC

Temporarily activate vacant sites within Christchurch with creative projects, to make for a more interesting, dynamic and vibrant city

Gap Filler

Embed voluntary contribution into the lives of all young-at-heart New Zealanders VAF

Engage with stakeholders city-wide to recommend a framework that supports economic growth through the integration of innovation, talent and intellectual property resulting from the earthquake rebuild (IBM Smarter Cities Challenge)

CDC/CCC

Set up and run a business capability development programme for owner/managers of start-ups with export potential

CDC

MA

KIN

G IT

EA

SIE

R

TO D

O B

USI

NE

SS

Work with councils to develop planning and consenting processes that are easy to follow and business-friendly

CERA In progress

Implement an internal customer service project to improve consenting processes and business engagement

CCC In progress

Develop a set of guidelines for Business Friendly Cities, based on the Core Cities research, to assist in benchmarking and information sharing between cities to improve council services

LGNZ Completed

INV

EST

ME

NT

VE

HIC

LES Completed

(now an ongoing service)

Increase the level of investment available to targeted high growth-potential businesses, assist these businesses in building robust investment cases and connect them with appropriate expertise to prepare business cases

CDC 17



INFR

AST

RU

CTU

RE

Rebuild the city's earthquake-damaged roads, freshwater, wastewater and stormwater networks (horizontal infrastructure)

SCIRT, CERA, CCC & NZTA

In progress

Construct the Christchurch Motorway Projects, State Highway improvements providing critical routes to central Christchurch, Port of Lyttelton and Christchurch International Airport

NZTA In progress

Prepare a South Island Freight Plan to guide public and private sector planning and investment decisions in relation to transport and logistics

NZTA In progress

Connect schools, hospitals and 90% of businesses to ultra-fast broadband by 2015 and the remaining 10% of businesses and all homes in urban Christchurch by 2019

Enable In progress

Deliver broadband to rural homes and businesses in Canterbury at prices and levels of service comparable with urban areas

Chorus & Vodafone

In progress

Implement the Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy through statutory land use and urban growth management including the completion of Chapter 12a of the statutory Regional Policy Statement

ECan In progress

Prepare a Land Use Recovery Plan to provide certainty about future land use patterns in greater Christchurch

ECan Completed

CO

NN

EC

TIO

NS

AN

D

BU

SIN

ESS

NE

TWO

RK

S Completed (now an ongoing service)

Completed

In progress

Reduce the barriers for local manufacturing and construction SMEs wanting to form collaborative agreements to build scale and compete for large projects during the rebuild, and develop best-practice guides for collaborative arrangements

CECC/CDC

Facilitate the formation of a Digital Leaders Group CDC

Investigate how the new Open Sky Policy for Christchurch International Airport can be utilised by the region

CIAL

BU

SIN

ESS

D

EV

ELO

PME

NT

In progress

In progress

Establish The Canterbury Report as a regular stakeholder update on the state of the region’s economy

CDC

Review the district plan, incorporating the current Christchurch City Plan and the Banks Peninsula District Plan within a relatively short timeframe to provide a solid foundation for Christchurch during the rebuild and into the longer-term

CCC

SEC

TOR

DE

VE

LOPM

EN

T

In progress

In progress

Completed

In progress

Completed

In progress

In progress

Implement the Greater Christchurch Visitor Sector Recovery Plan CCT

Develop and implement an international education marketing strategy and support marketing and regional brand development

Christchurch Educated / Education NZ

Establish the Precision Agriculture Association to identify the critical enabling technologies that influence profitable land-based production outcomes and ensure commercialisation of appropriate technologies

CDC

Identify opportunities to increase value from improved production in the rural sector to lift greater Christchurch GDP and support recovery

MPI

Establish sector advisory groups as a platform for sector-led planning CDC

Undertake research to understand sector constraints and enablers to improve sector planning

CDC

Realign the tertiary education sector to support the wider economy by making smart investments in the recovery of the sector

TEC

18


Our Population

15-24Yrs. 45-54Yrs.35-44Yrs.25-34Yrs. 55-64Yrs. Over 65 Yrs.

2011 – 368,000

2031 – 401,976*

58140 49597 49813 46763 47663 86376 Number of People56970 47580 51430 51810 42830 53000

As at 2011

Projected 2031

Total population

“Between 2011 and 2031 the estimated population over the age of 65 will increase from 14% to 21%; in contrast the proportion of working aged people will decrease from 68% to 63%”

The Demographic Breakdown

(Source: CDC and Statistics New Zealand)

* Based on baseline population growth projections

19

MONITORING


Mac

ro-e

cono

mic

En

viro

nmen

tA

dva

ncem

ent

Sect

ors

Qua

lity

of L

ivin

g

The macro indicators include unemployment, average wage rates, migration and other high-level statistics.

This captures the advancement of knowledge and technology through the education and innovation eco-systems. Indicators will describe qualification attainment, commitment to research and tertiary enrolments, for example.

Indicators observing the performance of key sectors – AgriTech, Technology, Value-Add Manufacturing, International Education, Professional Services – and other gauges such as retail spending, building consents and guest nights.

A set of comparable quality of living indicators for cities such as environmental, crime, facilities, services and commuting times.

CDC will monitor the performance of CEDS by regularly reviewing and reporting on a core set of indicators. CDC will also benchmark7 Christchurch’s economic performance against other Tier Three Australasian cities8.

Economic progress and indicator reports will enable agencies and the business community to track the performance of projects against goals. This will provide the basis

on which to identify areas where intervention and resources are being effective; where projects are off track and need support or review; and where new opportunities have surfaced.

The table to the left describes the categories of indicators that CDC will use when reporting.

Refer to the CDC website (www.cdc.org.nz) for economic development reports and data.

7 Where city economic data is available and comparable8 Refer to Pg 11 of the Background Paper at www.cdc.org.nz

Monitoring

Note: Projections are based on successful Big 5 and Keeping the City Competitive execution.

Working age population (15-64) 2031 hasn’t been recalculated as the changes were marginal. The change is based on the percent total change in 2031.

GDP Projection

Population Projection

Tony Alexander, BNZ Chief Economist, presenting at EPIC in Christchurch

0

5

10

15

20

25

$bil (000)

2012

2031

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012

2031

0

5

10

15

20

25

$bil (000)

2012

2031

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012

2031

Working age population20


Strategy

Rural Productivity – Growth of the rural economy will provide economic benefits to the Christchurch economy. There is also a need to balance quality of life with nitrate and water management in this growth.

Productivity Challenges – Businesses will not be able to rely on population growth alone to increase output and should not be expecting to rely on hiring more staff to fill new orders. It is likely that businesses will need to produce more with a similar number of staff.

There is a need to ensure that infrastructure investment, changing land use patterns across greater Christchurch and agricultural sector growth do not adversely affect long-term economic outcomes.

Long-term insurance uncertainty (availability and cost) for the business sector and residents is restricting the ability to invest and make decisions.

Continue to identify and support business sectors such as Food and Beverage Processing, ICT and AgriTech to grow.

‘The Big 5’ – The current five regional initiatives that can step-change Christchurch’s GDP.

Keeping the City Competitive – The elements that keep a city competitive and maintain GDP baseline growth.

Australasian Context – CDC’s Australasian City Model9 creates a city hierarchy based on population size. Within this hierarchy Christchurch is a Tier Three city.

Natural population growth will be insufficient to increase the number of working age people over the next 20 years.

The working age population in 2031 is forecast to be similar to what it is today.

There are a number of anticipated labour pressure points: 1. A result of immediate relocations prompted by the earthquakes (2010~2011) 2. Between sectors during the construction boom (2012~2016) 3. Post-rebuild mini recession (2016~2018) 4. Global labour competitiveness (2018~)

The increasing global demand for skills will make attracting labour to Christchurch increasingly difficult.

Christchurch working age population can be boosted by transferring temporary labour from the rebuild in to other permanent forms of employment.

Over the next 20 years Christchurch can expect dynamic and changing labour demand in the Construction, Agriculture, Technology and Manufacturing sectors.

Labour

For Christchurch to establish a reputation for its innovation system there is a need to improve commercialisation of research and development (R&D) and visibility of the region’s innovation system.

Historically, focus in the innovation sector has been on new start-ups and entrepreneurs; however we know little about the incremental innovation and product improvement process that most businesses engage in without recognising it as R&D.

Christchurch needs suitable leadership vehicles and systems in place that will capture and drive the next wave of ideas and innovative initiatives that become economic game-changers.

To build a stronger, innovative culture we need to ensure the quality of living in Christchurch matches the requirements of the changing population dynamic. For example, a city that people who are innovative, risk-takers, creative and adventurous enjoy.

Business & Sectors

Innovation

Prioritisation – CDC does not have the resources to do everything related to economic development.

Christchurch needs to display an increased appetite for risk, both in systems and processes and in attitude, so we can act with the speed required to maximise the opportunities we have in front of us.

There is a continuing need to align education and skills with business needs so that we are working today to create the workforce we need for now and in the future.

Enhancing city image perceptions within the region and outside the region is important, and it needs to happen in a co-ordinated way. The four audiences each requiring subtly different approaches are visitors (CCT); people (CCC); investment (CCDU); and business (CDC).

Leadership & Co-ordination

9 Refer to Pg 11 of the Background Paper at www.cdc.org.nz

Summary of Key Findings from the Background Paper and CEDS Workshops

Additional Information

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“Destination Christchurch: Migration to Christchurch in 2031 is projected to look like this”

(Source: CDC)

India IrelandPhilippines Fiji GermanyU.S.AAustraliaUnited KingdomChina

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GLOSSARY


AERU Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit

CBD Central Business District

CCC Christchurch City Council

CCDU Christchurch Central Development Unit

CCT Christchurch & Canterbury Tourism

CDC Canterbury Development Corporation

CDHB Canterbury District Health Board

CECC Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce

CEDS Christchurch Economic Development Strategy

CERA Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority

CIAL Christchurch International Airport Limited

CPIT Christchurch Polytechnic Institute of Technology

DoL Department of Labour

ECan Environment Canterbury

ERP Economic Recovery Programme

FTE Full Time Equivalent staff

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICT Information and Communications Technology

LGNZ Local Government New Zealand

LINZ Land Information New Zealand

LPC Lyttelton Port of Christchurch

LURP Land Use Recovery Plan

MBIE Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment

MPI Ministry for Primary Industries

NZTA New Zealand Transport Agency

NZTE New Zealand Trade & Enterprise

PEPR Partnership for Economic Prosperity and Recovery

PMO Project Management Office

PTE Private Training Establishment

R&D Research and Development

RONS Roads of National Significance (NZTA key roading projects)

SCIRT Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team

SMEs Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

SOE State-Owned Enterprise

TEC Tertiary Education Commission

VAF Volunteer Army Foundation

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Notes

If you have any ideas or additional information please send them to [email protected]

If you are interested in economic statistics please visit the ‘Economic Data’ page on the CDC website

If you are interested in subscribing to other CDC publications please visit the ‘Publications’ page on the CDC website

www.cdc.org.nz

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Canterbury Development Corporation

Level 1, 99 Cashel StreetChristchurch 8011, New ZealandPhone: 03 379 5575Email: [email protected]

www.cdc.org.nz

JULY 2013

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