The Chinese economy in 2025 and the impact on South Africa

A Brief Discussion on the Chinese and South African Economies

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Abstract

China’s transition from under-development and extreme poverty to an emerging global power

in just a matter of three decades has been phenomenal. During this time, GDP growth had

averaged 10 percent a year, and over 500 million people had been pulled out of poverty.

China is now the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer and its second largest economy.

Even if growth moderates, China is likely to become a high-income economy and the world’s

largest economy before 2025, notwithstanding the fact that its per capita income would still

be a fraction of the average in advanced economies.

China’s 12th Five Year Plan (2010-2015) outlines that it has reached the turning point in its

development path and hence calls for a strategic and fundamental shift in its economic

planning. Its key elements can be combined to extract China’s longer-term strategy that

extends to 2025. First, it aims to strengthen the foundations for a market-based economy by

implementing several structural reforms. Second, China intends to increase participation in

world R&D with the objective of increasing competitiveness and innovation among domestic

private manufacturers. Third, it is determine to take its environmental challenges in its stride

and combating the same by adopting a greener approach to economic development and a

more efficient allocation and use of resources. Fourth, China’s rapid growth has fostered the

cultivation of increased economic inequality and so China will try to promote equal

opportunities and social security for all by facilitating equal access to jobs, finance, quality

social services and portable social security.