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Top1NCChinas influence in North American trade is expandingShaiken et al 13[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]This paper highlights the reality that China has indeed integrated itself into North America in a process beginning in 2001 with Chinas adherence to the World Trade Organization. Before 2001, both Mexico and the U.S. were increasing and deepening trade relations and regional specializations within the parameters of NAFTA. Since 2001, however, this process has reversed as a result of Chinas massive trade volume with both the U.S. and Mexico. The analysis presented herein shows that Chinas rapidly developing trade relationship with both Mexico and the U.S. has had significant effects on each countrys respective trade dynamics. For instance, today China is the second largest trading partner for both Mexico and the United States, falling behind only the total intra-NAFTA trade volume. As we have seen from our examination of the top twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. and China, the structure of trade in the region is shifting significantly: for Mexico, its export share in the U.S. market has fallen sharply, contrary to the trade growth of Asia, and particularly of China. As discussed previously, from 2000-2011 both the U.S. and Mexico endured substantial losses in their respective export markets in the NAFTA region, particularly in regards to the manufacturing sector and in products such as telecommunications equipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor vehicles, and clothing accessories and garments, among many others. NAFTA, since its origins, has passed through two distinct phases. During the first phase (1994-2000), the region was deeply integrated as a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin in specific industrial sectors such as autoparts-automobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments (YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance with some of the predictions and estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a whole grew in terms of GDP, trade, investment, employment, and wages, among other variables, while intra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of the gaps between the U.S. and Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a small portion of Mexicos highly polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure. In other words, even in Mexican sectors highly integrated with NAFTA, the integration process did not allow for the promotion of backward and forward linkages in Mexico. In the second phase (2000-), NAFTA has shown a deterioration of this process of integration in terms of investment and intra-industrial trade, among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and the United States have been on the losing end of competitions with third-party countries, a topic only discussed somewhat in debates on NAFTA (see the survey in part two of this paper).The link is increased economic engagement. Lack of US influence is key to Chinas expansion in Latin America Shaiken et al 13[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 88-9]The dominant strategies of each of the parties and how these strategies evolve over time: Mexicos regional and global position is being shaped by an increasing accent on diplomatic and trade diversification. The decline in US influence and the expected reforms in the Mexican energy sector may open more room for Mexico to adjust to a growth strategy less dependent on the United States. Chinas rising role as a regional and global power and the new economic scenario marked by higher wages and growing concentration in industrial commodities and products are likely to affect the pace of change according to which Chinas going out strategy will develop in the near future. If Mexico and China reorient their strategies, it is likely that there will be an adjustment in the triangles dynamic, which may result in a closer relationship between these two countries.Chinese international influence is an existential impact it controls every scenario for extinction Zhang 12[Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. The Rise of Chinas Political Softpower 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm ]As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be attractive both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties, including widespread poverty, international conflict, the clash of civilizations and environmental protection. Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively address these issues; the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in conquering these dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic order has worsened poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developed countries is 32 times as large as that in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the world still lives in poverty. Western countries nevertheless still are striving to consolidate their wealth using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China forged a new path of development for its citizens in spite of this unfair international order which enabled it to virtually eliminate extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience would indeed be helpful in the fight against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years, the American model of "exporting democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as the increased risk of terrorism threatens global security. In contrast, China insists that "harmony is most precious". It is more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen international cooperation while addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism. The clash of civilizations Conflict between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying. "In a world, which is diversified and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own benefits yet promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay "The Clash of Civilizations?". China strives for "being harmonious yet remaining different", which means to respect other nations, and learn from each other. This philosophy is, in fact, wiser than that of Huntington, and it's also the reason why few religious conflicts have broken out in China. China's stance in regards to reconciling cultural conflicts, therefore, is more preferable than its "self-centered" Western counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer countries and their people are the most obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the least responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases. Although Europeans and Americans have a strong awareness of environmental protection, it is still hard to change their extravagant lifestyles. Chinese environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but some effective environmental ideas can be extracted from the China model. Perfecting the China model The China model is still being perfected, but its unique influence in dealing with the above four issues grows as China becomes stronger. China's experiences in eliminating poverty, prioritizing modernization while maintaining traditional values, and creating core values for its citizens demonstrate our insight and sense of human consciousness. Indeed, the success of the China model has not only brought about China's rise, but also a new trend that can't be explained by Western theory. In essence, the rise of China is the rise of China's political soft power, which has significantly helped China deal with challenges, assist developing countries in reducing poverty, and manage global issues. As the China model improves, it will continue to surprise the world.UQCompetition NowChinese engagement is outpacing the USGoodman 5-29[Joshua. Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for Latin America Ties 5/29/13 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-s-duels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html]The competition between the worlds two biggest economies for influence in Latin America is on display this week as U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Rio de Janeiro today near the end of a three-nation tour of the region with Chinese President Xi Jinping close behind. The dueling visits -- Biden departs Brazil May 31, the same day Xi arrives in Trinidad & Tobago to begin his first tour of the region since Chinas political transition ended in March -- underscore how Latin Americas natural resources and rising middle class are making it an increasingly attractive trade partner for the worlds top two economies. Competing with Chinas checkbook isnt easy for the U.S. Seeking South American soy, copper and iron ore, China boosted imports from Latin America 20-fold, to $86 billion in 2011 from $3.9 billion in 2000, according to calculations by the Inter-American Development Bank. By contrast, the U.S. policy of pursuing free-trade accords has been controversial, said Kevin Gallagher, a Boston University economist. If Im a Latin American leader, Im very happy because I now have more chips to play with, said Gallagher, author of the 2010 book The Dragon in the Room, about Chinas inroads in the region. The onus is on the U.S. to come up with a more flexible, attractive offer but thats not so easy because it doesnt have the deep pockets like it used to.Increased China-Mexico economic engagement now Goodman 5-29[Joshua. Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for Latin America Ties 5/29/13 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-s-duels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html]Still, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who visited Beijing in April, is looking to expand trade and investment with China, if only to diversify away from the U.S., buyer of 80 percent of the countrys exports. Chinese Influence HighChinese influence is outpacing the USMenedez 5-10[Fernando. The East is rising, in Latin America 5/10/13 http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america]Trade with China has also increased dramatically over the last decade. For example, China now accounts for 19 percent of Brazils total trade as compared with 2.8 percent in 2001. Similarly, China accounts for nearly 20 percent of Chiles total trade in contrast to 5.6 percent a decade ago. China has also concluded free-trade agreements with both Chile and Peru opening up those markets to Chinese manufactured goods. By 2014, China will overtake the European Union as Latin Americas second largest trading partner after the United States. While it still has some way to go in potentially overtaking the United States as the leading trade partner, it is, nevertheless, probable. Most recently, Brazil and China signed an agreement to pay for $30 billion in trade per year using local currencies and thus dropping the dollar. There is also general speculation concerning a new renminbi-based currency, which, if it does not replace the dollar or the euro, may well become a significant alternative foreign currency backed by commodities and natural resources. Some even speak of a renminbi trading bloc. All of these moves demonstrate the power of Chinas purse, which the US is increasingly unable to match. The speed and extent of Chinas growth in Latin America also raises concerns about its geopolitical and military policy objectives in the Americas. Many Chinese firms, especially in telecommunications, have longstanding ties to the Peoples Liberation Army, and that should raise red flags.Chinas pursuing increased influence in Latin AmericaGoodman 5-29[Joshua. Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for Latin America Ties 5/29/13 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-s-duels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html]For Xi, his week-long tour of Trinidad, Costa Rica and Mexico precedes a visit to California for his first face-to-face talks with Obama since taking office. The trip to Latin America and the Caribbean, coming so early in Xis presidency, reflects the rising confidence of the Chinese leadership as it pursues its strategic interests with little concern for U.S. reaction, said Evan Ellis, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington. China in recent years has ousted the U.S. to become the top trade partner for Brazil and Chile. In the past Chinese presidents were very deferential to the U.S., always making reference to Washingtons backyard, said Ellis, the author of dozens of papers and a book about Chinas penetration of Latin America. You dont hear any of that from Xis team, though you dont find any threatening rhetoric either. Chinese influence in Latin American trades high nowShaiken et al 13[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]Economic ties between China and Mexico have greatly improved, given that Mexico is one of the largest Latin American countries. From 2000 to 2009, China went from being the 19th largest importer of Mexican goods to the 7th, while going from 7th place to 2nd in terms of exports to Mexico (ECLAC 2011). By 2011, total trade between China and Mexico has increased significantly, and bilateral trade volume has reached 42.1 billion USD a 19% increase compared to the previous year (MOFCOM 2011). Most importantly, China has become the third largest export destination of Mexican goods. Chinese imports from Mexico increased from 0.09% in 1993 to 1.35% in 2010. In dollar amounts, Chinese imports from Mexico increased from 44.8 million USD in 1993 to 3.7 billion in 2010 (Hernndez Hernndez 2012:65). During the one-year period from 2010 to 2011, Chinese imports from Mexico increased 54.8%, while Mexican imports from China grew 16% (see Table 1).Its high and growing Ellis 11[R. Evan. Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University. Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study Joint Force Quarterly, Vol 60. 2011. http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html]Although the presence of Chinese corporations and workers in Latin America pales by comparison to that of the United States, it is growing and exerting an increasing weight in select countries. Particularly in states such as Ecuador and Venezuela, Chinese corporations are becoming increasingly critical for the functioning of the extractive industries that generate significant portions of the state's revenue. In Ecuador, Chinese petroleum and service companies directly operate seven oil blocks, are a partner in others through consortiums, and account for almost 40 percent of nonstate oil production, while China Railway Road and Tongling are ramping up for a $3 billion project in the recently opened Ecuadorian mining sector. In Venezuela, Chinese companies are one of the key actors maintaining oil production in the mature oilfields of Maracaibo and Anzotegui, a vital current revenue stream for the Chvez regime. In the Orinoco belt in the south of Venezuela, Chinese investment, technology, and manpower, including Chinese-made drilling rigs, are a key to the development of that nation's future oil potential, while a May 2010 agreement makes Chinese companies key players in the extraction of Venezuelan iron, gold, bauxite, and coal.7 Although Chinese companies have yet to attain the level of "key employers" or have a major role in many Latin American communities, they play a growing role in strategically important sectors in many Latin American countries. For example, in telecommunications, the Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE are increasingly important product, service, and infrastructure providers,8 and in logistics, companies such as China Shipping, China Overseas Shipping, and Hutchison Whampoa play increasingly vital roles in Latin America's foreign trade.US Engagement LowUS engagement is decreasingPriest 5-1[Dana. Latin American Reporter for the Washington Post. U.S. role to decrease as Mexicos drug-war strategy shifts The Washington Post, 5/1/13 ln]For the past seven years, Mexico and the United States have forged an unparalleled alliance against Mexicos drug cartels, one based on sharing sensitive intelligence, U.S. training and joint operational planning. But much of that hard-earned cooperation may be in jeopardy. President Obama heads off Thursday on a three-day visit to Mexico to cement relations with the newly elected president, Enrique Pea Nieto, with vows of neighborly kinship and future cooperation. Obamas visit comes as the fight over border security and immigration overhaul has begun to consume Congress. The December inauguration of Pea Nieto brought the nationalistic Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) back to power after 13 years, and with it a whiff of resentment over the deep U.S. involvement in Mexicos fight against narco-traffickers. The new administration has shifted priorities away from the U.S.-backed strategy of arresting kingpins, which sparked an unprecedented level of violence among the cartels, and toward an emphasis on prevention and keeping Mexicos streets safe and calm, Mexican authorities said.Chinas outpacing US engagement Padgett 5-13[Timothy. Latin America Reporter for TIME. The Obama Administration Looks to Latin America After Years of Neglect TIME, 5/13/13 http://world.time.com/2013/05/13/has-washington-finally-discovered-latin-america/#ixzz2UhOE2vcEOn the other hand, Latin America can also be excused if its a little irked if its asking the U.S., Why did you wait so long to make this outreach, if you really are making a genuine outreach? Washington feels more urgency to look south at the moment largely because of Chinas increasing incursion into the hemisphere: annual ChinaLatin America trade exceeds $200 billion today compared with less than $10 billion in 2000. U.S.Latin America trade may be robust. But this month Sabatinis publication, Americas Quarterly, lays out striking evidence of U.S. decline: in 1995, for example, the U.S. sent Brazil, Latin Americas largest economy and now the worlds sixth largest, more than a fifth of that countrys imports; by 2011 it was 15%, the same share sent from China. Ditto with regard to Brazils exports: in 1995 the U.S. bought 21%, but just 10% in 2011, while for China it was 17%. China, as a result, surpassed the U.S. as Brazils top trading partner in 2009. Whats more, business with the Americas as a share of total U.S. trade has actually dropped over the past decade. The investment tally is even more striking: in 1995, the U.S. accounted for 37% of Brazils foreign direct investment vs. 10% in 2011 less than Chinas. Granted, its good for Latin America to be less dependent on the U.S. But its hardly unreasonable to conclude that Washington wouldnt be facing this China syndrome in its own hemisphere if it had simply taken high-level engagement on Latin America more seriously a decade or more ago. Or even four years ago, when Obama took office pledging a more benign U.S. foreign policy toward the region and then used that, say critics, as an excuse for benign neglect. AT//Relations HighRelations may be high, but US economic engagement vis--vis China is sufficiently low to generate uniqueness for the DA - Shaiken says trade volume and new sectors of engagement mean future trends ensure Chinese leadership Hold any of their link uniqueness claims to a high threshold US actions never reflect diplomatic rhetoricPadgett 5-27[Timothy. Latin America Reporter for TIME Why China Is Behind Fresh U.S. Moves In Latin America WLRN South Florida 5/27/13 http://wlrn.org/post/why-china-behind-fresh-us-moves-latin-america]There are of course skeptics. I asked Robert Pastor, a former White House national security advisor for Latin America and now an international relations professor at American University in Washington, D.C., if he thinks the U.S. is doing enough to keep itself relevant in the Americas. No its not, he says. President Obamas trip (to Mexico and Central America) is a good first step, but he needs to do a lot more to open up and show Americas interest in re-engaging with the rest of South America. Pastor has a point: for decades, Latin America has heard a lot of rhetoric from the U.S. about engagement -- the kind Biden offered the Council of the Americas in Washington recently, when he declared that the hemisphere matters more (to the U.S.) today because it has more potential than any time in American history.Recent attempts at engagement have failedZissis 12[Carin. Mexico Analyst for the Council of the Americas. Mexicos Pea Nieto Visits Washington to Refocus Relations 11/27/12 http://www.as-coa.org/articles/mexico%E2%80%99s-pe%C3%B1a-nieto-visits-washington-refocus-relations] But it appears the American public may not have read the good news. A November 20 Vianovo and GSD&M survey found that half of Americans have an unfavorable view of Mexico, with drugs being the word most frequently associated with it. As many as 59 percent of those surveyed viewed Mexico as a source of problems compared to just 14 percent considering it a good partner. This perception persists, even as signs indicate a turning tide in terms of the drug-related violence that marked the six-year term of outgoing President Felipe Caldern. An AnimalPolitico analysis (translated into English by InSight Crime) reports that 20 of Mexicos 32 states saw fewer homicides between January and October in 2012 compared to the same period last year. Areas associated with high rates of violence saw notable drops, with homicides decreasing by 32 percent in Chihuahua, 25 percent in Nuevo Leon, and 23 percent in Sinaloa. Last month, Ciudad Juarez logged fewer homicides than Chicago. [A]re we still in a security crisis? asks the articles author, Mexican security expert Alejandro Hope. I would say no: crime and violence continue (and will continue for a while) at unacceptable levels, but it can no longer be so easily argued that the situation is escalating out of control.More evidence even recent attempts at improved relations will fail too many barriersFarnsworth 5-8[Eric. Leader of the Washington Office of the Council of the Americas. He was the Clinton Administrations Senior Adviser to the White House Special Envoy for the Americas. Obamas Mexico Trip Yielded Progress, Missed Opportunities 5/8/13 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12934/obama-s-mexico-trip-yielded-progress-missed-opportunities]At the same time, a number of obstacles to growth must be addressed if the bilateral relationship is to reach its full potential. Many of these are domestic issues that each nation should resolve for its own self-interest but that would nonetheless meaningfully improve the bilateral economic relationship. Among these are, from Mexicos side, reforms in fiscal, energy and competition policy, as well as the continuing implementation of labor and education reforms. Working with Mexicos other two main political parties, Pena Nietos Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) has successfully begun the reform process. But the Mexican presidents honeymoon period is coming to an end, and the most difficult issues remain unresolved. From the U.S. perspective, comprehensive immigration reform would boost the economy by regularizing, and therefore capitalizing on, immigrant workers already in the United States contributing to economic production. The United States would also do well to quickly pass the transboundary hydrocarbons agreement with Mexico, which would open up opportunities for cooperation with Mexican state energy company Pemex in the Gulf of Mexico.More evidence instances of increased cooperation are meaninglessFarnsworth 5-8[Eric. Leader of the Washington Office of the Council of the Americas. He was the Clinton Administrations Senior Adviser to the White House Special Envoy for the Americas. Obamas Mexico Trip Yielded Progress, Missed Opportunities 5/8/13 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12934/obama-s-mexico-trip-yielded-progress-missed-opportunities]The presidents visit to Mexico was timely and symbolically important. It was designed to shift the narrative about U.S.-Mexico relations, and several concrete initiatives were announced. But the trip seemingly did little to promote or capture a larger ambition for the relationship. Both sides will need to think bigger to take the relationship to the next level. The turn to economics is not substantive the security focus will return and theres no coherent economic agendaFossett 5/28/13(Katelyn, In U.S.-Mexico Relations, a Shift from Security to Economy, Interpress Service News, www.ipsnews.net/2013/04/in-u-s-mexico-relations-a-shift-from-security-to-economy/)Developments Achilles heel Still, for a country like Mexico that is still struggling with issues of citizen security and rampant crime, many suggest that economic growth would have to start from the bottom, with more robust social programmes and safety nets, before the international community becomes too optimistic about economic and trade booms. Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin America programme at the Wilson Center, calls Latin America far behind in developing policies that might leverage inclusive growth. There is not a sense of shared responsibility when your social policy is remittance, when your lack of social policy is permitted, she told reporters on Friday. The region, she said, needs a widespread recognition of the role the private sector needs to play in paying taxes, improving government [and] institutions. In a telephone interview with IPS, she noted that the U.S. relationship with Central America is likely to remain more focused on security concerns. There is a growing consensus in the development community that sustainable growth cant and will not happen unless levels of violence are brought under control, she told IPS. The World Bank recently called citizen insecurity the Achilles heel of development in Latin America. Members of the U.S. Congress and advocacy groups here are also wary of turning a blind eye to human rights concerns in Mexico. The dire human rights situation in Mexico is not going to solve itself, Maureen Meyer, a senior associate for Mexico and Central America with the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), an advocacy group, said in a statement. As the bilateral agenda evolves, it is critical that the U.S. and Mexican governments continue to focus on how best to support and defend human rights in Mexico. In a press release issued last week, WOLA expressed agreement with a letter from 23 members of Congress to Secretary of State John Kerry that stressed that [t]he human rights crisis will not improve until there are stronger legal protections, increased human rights training for Mexicos security forces, and more government agents held responsible for the human rights violations they commit. Even as the focus of U.S.-Mexico relations turns to economics, there is no broad agreement on how exactly a shift toward trade relations will strengthen the economic competitiveness of both countries. Part of the challenge is that we have this term, but we have a laundry list of issues that could fit into that term, the Mexico Institutes Chris Wilson said. What we still dont have is a coherent agenda or a way in which the leadership from the top level can engage the public or business community or civil society and create something more [meaningful], he told IPS.Some collaboration might be inevitable, but the increase in economic engagement facilitated by the plan is distinctStratfor 13[Stratfor Global Intelligence. Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relations and Obama's Visit 5/2/13 http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/evolving-us-mexico-relations-and-obamas-visit ]Domestic political factors will determine the success of the pending overhauls. But the labor reform could improve bilateral commerce and investment with the United States, as would a successful liberalization of the country's energy sector in the coming years. Mexico is already the United States' third-largest trading partner, and economic coordination between the two countries has become a routine matter at the ministerial level, but there is still a need to ease bureaucratic trade and investment barriers. AT//TPP ThumperTPP will divide Latin America doesnt secure trade or US influenceWagner and Parker 5-16[Dan. CEO of Country Risk Solutions, an International Risk Advisory Firm. And Nick is a Research Analyst with the Congressional Research Service. Is the Trans-Pacific Partnership the Solution to Latin America's Fractured Trade Regime? The Huffington Post, 5/16/13 ln]Latin America is poised to assume a starring role in the governance of international trade, with a Brazilian having been selected to lead the World Trade Organization and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) set to enter its 17th round of talks in Peru later this month. Many hope an agreement on the TPP will provide a much-needed boost to a still prostrate global economy, but what is being widely hailed as profound progress in the evolution of trade integration globally is having the opposite effect in Latin America. Rather than deepening trade ties within the region, the TPP is serving to expose and exacerbate underlying political and economic fractures, raising question about how deep Latin American trade cooperation can be, and whether the Americas are fated to continue to be divided along trade policy lines. Praised as a cutting edge agreement to address 21st century cross-border commercial issues, the TPP will unite a dozen nations with the goal of establishing a core free trade area for the Asia-Pacific region. The bloc will account for more than 30% of global GDP and 20% of the world's exports -- which would grow considerably with the inclusion of Japan and South Korea - which are both actively exploring entry in the Partnership. Many potential signatories, including the U.S., have expressed a desire for conclusion of the Partnership this year. As is the case with any multilateral negotiation, getting to the finish line has not been easy. The derailment of negotiations over the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) and the Doha Development Round had a significant impact on the perceived realism of regional trade agreements, while negatively effecting Latin America's ability to uniformly and robustly engage with its largest trading partners. The radically different trade policy paths that have emerged - pitting the notion of collaboration against economic nationalism -- have given rise to a region divided over how, and whether, it should approach trade liberalization going forward. LinkLink: Economic Engagement Increasing economic engagement and support for police and security forces creates strategic harmony between Obama and Nietos priorities which strengthens US-Mexican relationsde Castro 12(Rafael Fernndez chair of the international studies department at the Autonomous Technological University of Mexico, Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. Mexican Relations? American Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-priority-be-us-mexican-relations) Brand new President Enrique Pea Nieto has three priorities in Mexicos bilateral relations with the United States. The first priority is to take advantage of the opportunity that was created by the weight of the Hispanic vote in favor of Barack Obamas reelection to achieve immigration reform. It is Pea Nietos task to help Obama create the foundation for immigration reform, not with demands but through actions. He must therefore align Mexicos objectives with those of the United States: they must consistently seek legal, safe and orderly migration. Furthermore, he must do some serious housekeeping, preventing abuses against Central American migrants from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. And, he must develop a stable southern border, one that counts with a state presence and adequate infrastructure. The spirit of the transformation of the southern border must preserve the positive aspects of border integration processes while achieving efficiency in formal operations that will allow it to triumph over illegality. The second priority is to take advantage of more favorable economic winds in both Mexico and the United States. Pea Nieto must prioritize an agenda of economic integration and greater regional competitiveness. The Mexican and Canadian entry into the Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations signify an opportunity to harmonize stances between the three members of NAFTA to amplify markets in Asia. Mexico will be hosting the 2013 North American Leaders Summit, and Pea Nieto should thus be able to push a new regional strategic agenda that includes safer and efficient borders and the standardization of production. The third priority is to maintain the aid flows that help combat organized crime and drug trafficking in the face of a U.S. fiscal crisis that can threaten these resources. Here Pea Nieto must emphasize three elements: agree with Washingtons priority that it help strengthen Mexicos law enforcement institutions (police, judges, and prisons); develop a regional vision that includes Central America; and insist on an open debate that finally puts the decriminalization of drugs on the table.An economic approach to relations draws Mexico closer to the USValencia 5/20/13(Robert contributing writer for Global Voices Online, New York-based political analyst, U.S. and Latin America Economic Cooperation Without Militarization? www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/05/20/us-and-latin-america-economic-cooperation-without-militarization) In May, President Barack Obama visited Mexico and Costa Rica and vowed to strengthen economic ties with these two countries and the rest of Latin America. He pledged to expand renewable energy development and education initiatives in recognition of the joined fates of the United States and Latin America. This approach to Latin America is refreshing, but its impact on the ongoing War on Drugs remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, the United States bears much of the responsibility for the failed campaign, but the Obama administration has seen that some Latin American countries are taking their own lead in tackling the drug trade and are increasingly relying less on Washington. The Obama administration, for its part, has realized that shifting the legendary treatment of Latin America as the U.S. backyard to an economic approach would draw Latin America closer to Washington, especially given the fact that Latin American leaders like Mexicos Enrique Pea Nieto and Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff want to be considered trade partners and not U.S. subordinates.

Link: North American Competitiveness Increasing economic engagement in movement of supplies across the border is crucial to North American competitivenessShapiro 12(Charles Shapiro, president of the Institute of Americas, a public policy think tank at the University of California San Diego, Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. Mexican Relations? American Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-priority-be-us-mexican-relations) At the 2009 Summit of the Americas, President Barack Obama stressed that he wanted a relationship of equals. It is time for Obama and President Enrique Pea Nieto to transform U.S.-Mexican bilateral relations into a true partnership. The headlines always go to energy, drugs, and immigration. And yes, Mexican leaders must figure out how to produce more oil and natural gas. Yes, the United States must reduce our appetite for drugs and control the illicit export of weapons and drug money. U.S. politicians will reform our immigration policy when they understand that we need Mexican workers and that anti-Latino sentiments will cost them elections. What is vital, if less sexy, is to realize that Canada, Mexico, and the United States are one economic entity. The focus must be on North American competitiveness. While respecting national sovereignty, we need to recognize that supply chains straddle borders. The manufactured exports of each contain components from all three. NAFTA was the cutting edge laptop of 1992. Its time for the North American equivalent of the iPhone 5. We must accelerate the movement of sub-components and finished products (and tourists) across our borders. We need to make it easier for technicians to work temporarily in each others countries. We need to harmonize our regulations and standards. Together the three nations need to develop markets with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the European Union, APEC, and the Pacific Alliance. Thats how to generate growth in all three North American nations. Efforts to create a 21st century border are the most important components of broader North American competitivenessLeycegui 12(Beatriz Leycegui Senior Fellow at the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development in Geneva, Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. Mexican Relations? American Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-priority-be-us-mexican-relations) One of their top priorities should be to address with a greater sense of urgency the bilateral and North American competitiveness agenda. The Mexican and U.S. economies are highly integrated and interdependent. If their economies do well, the impact on job creation is immediate. The U.S. is Mexicos most important export market; Mexico is the U.S.s second most important export market. Of every dollar the U.S. imports of Mexican goods, 40 percent have American content, in comparison to Chinas (4 percent), Brazils (3 percent), or Indias (2 percent). Due to the reduction in the differential in labor costs between Mexico and China (in 2003, it stood at 237 percent; in 2010, at 13.8 percent) and increases in energy and transport costs, investment and production are returning to North America. The most important elements of the North American competitiveness agenda should include: expediting the work to create a twenty-first-century border (infrastructure, risk management, pre-clearance, customs cooperation); strengthen regulatory cooperation (mutual recognition of regulations); liberalization of strategic services (e.g. telecommunications, air, land and sea transportation), and the improvement in the enforcement of intellectual property laws. The Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations can be an opportunity to advance some of these issues. Mexico and the United States cannot fight geography. Why would Mexico forego the benefit of being next to the most important economy of the world? Why would the United States ignore the possibility of further integrating with a country that has proven to be a partner in production more than a competitor?

Link: Border Infrastructure Creating a modern border infrastructure is crucial to developing the Mexico-US commercial relationshipNew Policy Institute 2/9/12(Research Team of Alejandro Figueroa, Research and Policy Analyst, NACTS Erik Lee, Associate Director, NACTS Rick Van Schoik, Director, NACTS, Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico, North American Center for Transborder Studies) Sharing a 2,000-mile long border needs to be recognized as both a challenge and an opportunity. While land ports of entry between the two nations were first envisioned to process the legitimate crossing of people, goods and services across the border, security has taking a dominant role in recent years, hampering the ability of federal agencies to efficiently manage border traffic. Advances in border infrastructure simply did not happen during the last decade, which is astounding given the greatly expanded post-NAFTA binational commercial relationship. Our borders infrastructure and capacity today reflects the needs of a bygone era. This became evident as never before when on September 14, 2011, the San Ysidro, California port of entry the busiest land port of entry in the worldhad to shut down its 24 north-bound lanes due to the collapse of part of its roof, injuring several people and damaging vehicles trying to cross into the U.S. from Tijuana, Mexico. According to a report by the San Diego Association of Governments, inadequate infrastructure capacity just at the border crossings between San Diego County and the state of Baja California creates traffic congestion and delays that cost both the U.S. and Mexican economies on average an estimated $7.2 billion in forgone gross output and more than 62,000 jobs on an annual basis. These border delays could cause $86 billion in output losses over the next ten years. The border has been a filter to what shouldnt get in, when it can be a facilitator to what should get in. Rachel Poynter, U.S. State Department These delays are significant for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that American firms are constantly attempting to reduce their inventory costs in an attempt to remain competitive. While importing from China to the U.S. may require a company to hold more than 100 days of inventory, if efficiently managed, our proximity to Mexico can provide American firms with a constant and predictable flow of goods that may reduce inventory costs and provide firms the ability to respond rapidly and effectively to sudden market changes. With this fundamental fact in mind, in May of 2010 the U.S. and Mexico signed the 21st Century Border Management Joint Declaration. Recognizing the importance of fostering the commercial relationship, both countries have agreed to coordinate efforts to enhance the economic competitiveness by expediting lawful trade. The idea is that development of modern and secure 16 border infrastructure will give an added boost to our regions competitiveness in the world and at the same time increase our access to a wider, more affordable and ever improving quality set of goods. Binational infrastructure building is crucial for economic integrationNew Policy Institute 2/9/12(Research Team of Alejandro Figueroa, Research and Policy Analyst, NACTS Erik Lee, Associate Director, NACTS Rick Van Schoik, Director, NACTS, Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico, North American Center for Transborder Studies) Today more than 75,000 trucks (carrying close to 80 % of our two-way trade) cross our border on a daily basis. That this much traffic is able to cross our congested borders is due in part to important advances in border infrastructure in the last couple of years as new ports of entry have been opened. One important policy development is master planning processes for regional border infrastructure, which have been initiated in conjunction with local border communities and state governments. It is hoped that these regional processes will eventually make the overall binational infrastructure-building process more transparent, more robust and ultimately a better fit for two such powerful economies and next door neighbors. Much Opportunity, but the Real Work Has Only Just Begun Total trade between the United States and Mexico has expanded by more than 600% since 1990. Yet we need further commitment and investment in the infrastructure needed to sustain such growth, which is critical for both economies. The question now is whether our current border management system will be able to sustain that growth, and if so, for how much longer. A strong trade/joint production relationship with Mexico can help create high-quality jobs within our borders. For reasons of geography and history, Mexicos fate is intertwined with that of the United States. And despite the current global economic environment, and transnational organized crime affecting Mexico and the United States, the two countries need to implement a 21st Century border that not only re-invigorates crossborder trade and economic integration but which will also lead to increased safety and quality of life for the residents of both countries. Both countries need to remain committed to promoting the global competitiveness of our region and to ensuring that the benefits of expanding trade flows keep reaching businesses, workers and consumers on both sides of our shared border. We will be able to accomplish this if leaders can explain the critical nature of our commercial relationships in ways that are more concrete and easier for citizens to understand. It is past time for our shared border to begin to meet tomorrows demands, acting as a facilitator and conductor of the lawful flows of goods, services and people between our nations, so that we may capitalize on the full potential of our partnership. If a billion dollars worth of trade crosses the U.S.-Mexico border on a daily basis and sustains six million jobs in the U.S., imagine what could be accomplished with a truly 21st century border. Enhanced border infrastructure is critical to the North American competitivenessNew Policy Institute 2/9/12(Research Team of Alejandro Figueroa, Research and Policy Analyst, NACTS Erik Lee, Associate Director, NACTS Rick Van Schoik, Director, NACTS, Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico, North American Center for Transborder Studies) Sharing a 2,000-mile long border with Mexico needs to be recognized as both a challenge and an opportunity. Though improving, our borders current infrastructure and capacity today reflect the needs of a bygone era. While land ports of entry between the two nations were first envisioned to process the legitimate crossing of people, goods and services across the border, security has taking an overwhelmingly dominant role in recent years, hampering the ability of agencies to efficiently manage border traffic. With this in mind, in May of 2010 the U.S. and Mexico signed the 21st Century Border Management Joint Declaration. Recognizing the importance of fostering the commercial relationship, both countries have agreed to coordinate efforts to enhance economic competitiveness by expediting lawful trade. The basic idea is that developing a modern and secure border infrastructure will give an added boost to our regions safety and competitiveness in the world. Much Opportunity, but the Real Work Has Only Just Begun The poor infrastructure, the inadequate staffing levels and the heavy focus on security that prevails at the U.S. Mexico border have cost both economies billions of dollars in gross output annually. It is past time for our shared border to begin to meet todays demands, acting as a facilitator and conductor of lawful flows of goods, services and people across our nations so that we may capitalize on the full potential of our partnership. If a billion dollars worth of trade crosses the U.S.-Mexico border on a daily basis now while sustaining six million jobs, imagine what could be accomplished with a truly 21st century border. 4 An Introduction to our Unknown Neighbor, Mexico It is imperative for the United States to engage in a national conversation regarding the value of economic integration and interdependence, cross-border trade with Mexico, and the cost of inefficiencies at our long and dynamic shared border. As the U.S. economy struggles to create high-quality jobs and the export sector assumes more importance, our nation needs to discover every dollar of value in the relationship with our nations number two export market: Mexico. There is no other relationship for the United States that is as dismissed and yet ironically as crucial for our countrys well-being as the one with Mexico, a country with a population of over 113 million people. Mexico is much more than a country with which we just happen to share a 2,000 mile long land border. Although it is often unknown to us, it is important to realize that Mexico is one of our most significant commercial partners in the world. To illustrate Mexicos overall development and the trends in its development, we can look a few examples from its physical infrastructure, its human capital, what it produces and its trade relationships. To begin with, in 2010 Mexico invested an unprecedented five percent of its GDP in infrastructure. With 76 seaports along its 11,000 kilometers of seashore on the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, 85 airports, 26,700 kilometers of railroad and 366,000 kilometers of road, Mexico is one of the most interconnected countries in the entire hemisphere (see Figure 1 below).

Link: Access RoadsAccess road improvements cement US influenceNegroponte 12 (Diana Negroponte, a nonresident senior fellow with theLatin America Initiativeunder Foreign Policyat the Brookings Institution, Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. Mexican Relations? American Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-priority-be-us-mexican-relations)Deepening the trade relationship and facilitating the shipment of component parts between Mexico and the United States requires the creation of access roads some eight miles ahead of the principal border crossings. With electronic submission of customs/immigration documentation and with electronic seals on transnational containers, trucks filled with bilaterally manufactured products can more rapidly pass across the border. Currently, the trucks are delayed principally for lack of access roads leading up to the border, especially on the Mexican side. In order to construct these roads, private-public partnerships are needed. The NADBANK, established 20 years ago to support environmental projects, is the best placed to mobilize these partnerships. The bank's bylaws permit this. However, the environmental impact needs to be interpreted broadly. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could recognize that new roads relieve the congestion and high levels of air pollutants at the border crossing itself. Use of access roads may spread pollution further inland, but the levels of pollutants will be significantly lower than those currently suffered each side of the Rio Grande. NADBANKs initiative and the White House leadership to facilitate EPA approval could lead to the development of access roads and decongestion at the actual border. Mexican presidential encouragement to NADBANK's directors to seek PPPs and U.S. presidential urging to the EPA for a broad interpretation of its mandate could result in a decade's work of new infrastructure projects. This will facilitate the anticipated tripling of cross-border trade as both countries negotiate a Trans-Pacific Partnership and Mexico negotiates a Pacific Trade Alliance with its South American partners. Presidential decisions to advance on instructing NADBANK to move forward with PPPs for these infrastructure projects are relatively easy. Their consequences will enhance the trade and prosperity of both nations.

Link: Security CooperationIncreasing security cooperation secures US influence Seelke 13[Claire. Specialist in Mexico Affairs at the Congressional Research Service. Mexico and the 112th Congress 1/29/13 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32724.pdf]In recent years, U.S. policy toward Mexico has been framed by security cooperation under the Mrida Initiative. Congress has provided more than $1.9 billion in Mrida aid since FY2008 to support Mexicos efforts against drug trafficking and organized crime. Whereas U.S. assistance initially focused on training and equipping Mexican counterdrug forces, it now prioritizes strengthening the rule of law. Along the border, U.S. policymakers have sought to balance security and commercial concerns. The U.S. and Mexican governments resolved a long-standing trade dispute in 2011 involving NAFTA trucking provisions and have sought to improve competitiveness through regulatory cooperation. Bilateral trade surpassed $460 billion in 2011.The February 2012 signing of a Trans-Boundary Hydrocarbons Agreement for managing oil resources in the Gulf of Mexico could create new opportunities for energy cooperation. Reforming cross-border regulations is the overarching factor in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationshipJones 12(James Jones chairman and CEO of MannattJones Global Strategies and former U.S. ambassador to Mexico (1993-1997), Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. Mexican Relations? American Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-priority-be-us-mexican-relations) The overarching goal of our bilateral relationship should be to thoroughly integrate the economies of North America. Democracy and security are strengthened when commerce flows and grows. This creates wealth, opens new jobs, and establishes better personal relationships in both countries. To achieve this, we can work together to reduce the regulatory barriers to efficient trade by harmonizing cross-border regulations and modernizing border infrastructure. The U.S. must pass comprehensive immigration reform that recognizes reality in our labor needs and legal protections for immigrants who are here helping build our economy. The U. S. must implement a debt reduction program combining serious spending cuts and revenue increases to give certainty and new impetus to growing our economy. Mexico must implement judicial and law enforcement reforms that will give confidence to businesses and citizens that a rule of law prevails there. Energy reforms are needed to attract private capital to fully realize Mexico's abundant opportunities. Mexico needs tax reform that increases revenue, reduces the informal economy, and provides the framework to close the deep wealth divide among its citizens. To accomplish this and to further reduce the 40 million living in poverty, Mexico needs to make massive investments in infrastructure and quality education. Mexico's growing middle class is impressive but to expand that even more will create market and economic power that will be the envy of the hemisphere. North America sits near the pinnacle of its greatest economic strength in history. Together we can take it to the top.

Link: Immigration / Trade Engaging Mexico on trade and immigration reform is crucial to move the US-Mexican relationship from one of necessity to a strategic allianceGarza 12(Antonio Garza former U.S. ambassador to Mexico (2002-2009), Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. Mexican Relations? American Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-priority-be-us-mexican-relations) The United States and Mexico have enjoyed a very healthy and respectful relationship. On issues of shared interestprimarily trade and securityweve cooperated, though mostly out of necessity. Yet neither country has ever truly leveraged the bilateral relationship strategically. What will it take to bring about this kind of fundamental shift? A first step is to get rid of outdated perceptionson both sides. You simply cant expect to have a strategic relationship that functions in real time if perceptions lag present realities. Theres been new research and insightful commentary recently highlighting the gap between Americans perceptions of Mexico and the countrys current reality. President Enrique Pea Nieto faces the daunting task of moving Main Street U.S. perceptions of Mexico closer to where the views of economists, investors, and discerning travelers are on the country. He will help this along by conveying his administrations absolute commitment to carrying through promised economic reforms, implementing anti-corruption and transparency initiatives, and reinforcing cooperation on security. For President Obama, its important to signal that his new team is completely schooled in the reality of todays Mexico and that they are prepared to take advantage of the moment to recast the relationship to the benefit of both countries. Delivering on immigration reform and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement are rare opportunities for a U.S. administration to fundamentally alter Mexicans perceptions of their northern partner. As Mexicos place in the world rises and the U.S. continues to recalibrate its foreign alliances, theres a unique opportunity to move the bilateral relationship to a more strategic levelbut it will take some work.

Trade KeyCommercial relationship is crucial to both Mexico and US economiesNew Policy Institute 2/9/12(Research Team of Alejandro Figueroa, Research and Policy Analyst, NACTS Erik Lee, Associate Director, NACTS Rick Van Schoik, Director, NACTS, Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico, North American Center for Transborder Studies)The United States urgently needs a sustained national conversation regarding how to realize greater value in our crossborder trade with Mexico, and the benefits of increasing efficiencies at our shared border. As the export sector assumes more importance and the U.S. economy struggles to create high-quality jobs, our nation needs to discover every dollar of value in our relationship with our nations number two export market: Mexico. Trade with Mexico: An Abundance of Value That Is Hidden In Plain Sight Trade is an important tool in policymakers economic development toolbox. Ever since the enactment of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and given the complementarity of the U.S. and Mexican economies, bilateral trade has grown exponentially, reaching a record high of nearly $400 billion in 2010. Mexico is now the third-ranked commercial partner of the U.S. and the second largest market for U.S. exports. Mexico spent $163 billion on U.S. goods in 2010, and trade with Mexico sustains six million jobs in the U.S. This is economic value that for many in the U.S. remains hidden in plain sight. To provide a better idea of what this commercial partnership means to our country, U.S. sales to Mexico are larger than all U.S. exports to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) combined, as well as all combined sales to Great Britain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Twenty-two states count Mexico as their No. 1 or No. 2 export market, and it is a top-five market for 14 other states. American consumers and businesses import large quantities of jointly produced products and services from Mexico such as automobiles, produce, and petroleum, just to name a few. Still, for every dollar Mexico makes from exporting to the U.S., it will in turn spend 50 cents on U.S. products or services, which are a considerable benefit to our economy and demonstrates the truly unique quality of this trade or joint production relationship. The economic component of the alliance is comparatively most important Seelke 13[Claire. Specialist in Mexico Affairs at the Congressional Research Service. Mexico and the 112th Congress 1/29/13 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32724.pdf]The United States and Mexico have a close and complex bilateral relationship as neighbors and partners under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Although security issues have recently dominated the U.S. relationship with Mexico, analysts predict that bilateral relations may shift toward economic matters now that President Enrique Pea Nieto has taken office. Pea Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) defeated leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) candidate Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador and Josefina Vzquez Mota of the conservative National Action Party (PAN) in Mexicos July 1, 2012 presidential election. As a result, the PRI, which controlled Mexico from 1929 to 2000, retook the presidency on December 1, 2012. Some analysts have raised concerns regarding the PRIs return to power, but President Pea Nieto has pledged to govern democratically and to forge cross-party alliances.Economic cooperation is the new orientation of the alliance Stratfor 13[Stratfor Global Intelligence. Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relations and Obama's Visit 5/2/13 http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/evolving-us-mexico-relations-and-obamas-visit ]When U.S. President Barack Obama travels to Mexico on May 2, he will arrive amid a period of sweeping transformation in the country. Embroiled in myriad political battles and seeking to implement an extensive slate of national reforms, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration has been focused almost solely on internal affairs. Meanwhile, after years of delay, the U.S. Congress has been debating gun control and immigration reform -- two issues of serious interest to the Mexican government. U.S.-Mexican relations are strategically important to both countries, and Mexico's period of transition has created opportunities for each to reshape the partnership. And although U.S. media attention has focused primarily on bilateral security issues ahead of Obama's visit -- namely cooperation in Mexico's drug war -- the Pena Nieto administration is working with Washington to re-orient the cross-border conversation to one centered primarily on mutual economic possibility. The economic aspect of the bilateral relationship is becoming increasingly important new working group and both leaders are distancing themselves from security and immigration issuesThomson 5/3/13(Adam, US and Mexico Agree Closer Economic Ties, Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/01c6d678-b37e-11e2-b5a5-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2U4qzm61q)The governments of Mexico and the US on Thursday agreed to form a group to deepen economic integration as part of efforts to broaden the bilateral relationship and boost North American competitiveness. At a press conference with US President Barack Obama, Enrique Pea Nieto of Mexico said the group would comprise Mexican ministers and their US counterparts, and include input from Joe Biden, the US vice-president. It would meet for the first time in the autumn. The Mexican president said the idea was to act as an enabler ... in terms of how government can support efforts by the private sector to have a strong economic integration. The announcement goes some way to meeting Mr Pea Nietos objectives of widening relations with Mexicos northern neighbour, which in recent years have been dominated by security and immigration issues. Mr Pea Nieto, who took office in December, has said that he intends to reorient his countrys role in the fight against drugs, prioritising efforts that lead to a reduction in violence over the pursuit of drug-cartel kingpins. Some experts have interpreted that as a deliberate desire to create some distance from the US on the security issue, with the potential to downgrade what has undoubtedly been a period of co-operation for both countries against organised crime. But on Thursday Mr Obama, who is on a three-day visit to Mexico and Central America, said he supported Mr Pea Nietos intentions of reducing the murder rate, which has almost tripled in the past six years largely as a consequence of the military-led fight against the cartels. Saying that he and Mr Pea Nieto had discussed the security issue in depth, Mr Obama added that it is up to the Mexican people to determine their security structures ... we support the Mexican governments focus on reducing violence. Mr Obama also commended his Mexican counterpart on an ambitious economic reform agenda including the central goal to raise Mexicos annual growth rates to as high as 6 per cent within the next six years. The US leader called Mexicos reform programme a necessary change. On the high-level working group, Mr Obama said it was necessary to upgrade and revamp the two countries trade relationship. Since the signing of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), bilateral trade has flourished and is now worth about $1.4bn a day. Mr Obama said that it was important to do more. We cant lose sight of the larger relationship, he said, calling it a historic opportunity to foster more trade and more jobs on both sides of the border.The focus for the bilateral agenda is shifting to economicsGrayson 5/21/13(George W. - Professor of Government at the College of William & Mary, Strategic Posture Review: Mexico, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12961/strategic-posture-review-mexico)Instead, both sides are eager to reframe the bilateral agenda and shift the emphasis to trade and energy. During Obamas recent visit to Mexico City, both presidents pledged to concentrate more on commerce and business, which have been eclipsed by the drug war. In an April 2013 meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry, Mexican Foreign Secretary Jose Antonio Meade sounded a similar note, also stressing the need to transcend drug issues and concentrate more on trade and investment. Meade pointed out that Mexico is the most important export market for 22 of the 50 [U.S.] states, and added that the U.S. exports more to Mexico than it does to China and Japan combined.

China Ext. Internal LinkImproved US-Mexico relations crowd out ChinaFischer 12[Howard. Analyst for Capitol Media. Fox says US-Mexico ties deter China's influence 9/14/12 http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html]Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said the United States has to bolster ties with Mexico - including recognizing the benefits of migrant labor - or get used to the idea of China setting the international agenda on its own terms. "The threat is this so-called power shift from the West to the East," he told a press conference Thursday at an economic development event organized by the city of Peoria. "Those nations on the East are getting ready and prepared to lead," Fox explained, saying there are forecasts showing the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the United States within a dozen years. "And that means a very important question to all of us: Under what principles are those leading nations (going to) be exercising their leadership?" Fox said. His point: The U.S. would be better off dealing with Mexico and other Latin American countries than perhaps those with different worldviews. "We have our values in the West that we share," Fox said. "So we all on this continent, especially North America, must get ready to meet that challenge." That means bolstering the economies of the United States and Mexico, he said. If the West wants to keep its edge, Fox said, there needs to be a recognition that Mexicans in the United States, legally or not, contribute to the economy of both countries. And that, he said, will require resolving the issue of who can come to this country and under what circumstances. "It has to be based on humanism, on compassion, on love, on friendship, on neighborhood and on partnership that we have together," Fox said. "Otherwise, we will keep losing the jobs to the East." Fox, who served as president from 2000 to 2006, insisted he is not in favor of "open borders." "But I am in favor of the use of our talent, our wisdom, our intelligence," Fox said. And that requires finally filling the vacuum of what kind of laws on immigration are necessary. In his speech, Fox did not address Arizona's approval of SB 1070 two years ago in an effort to give state and local police more power to detain and arrest suspected illegal immigrants. But in response to a question afterward, he said Arizona and other states have waded into the fray with their own laws out of frustration with the lack of action in Washington. "At the very end, migration is a national issue," Fox said. With immigration reform stalled in Congress, "state governments and state legislatures have been forced to get involved." Fox said that what's needed now is for lawmakers in Washington to come up with at least a framework for reform. "We need to know what the playground is and what the rules of the game are," he said, calling on leaders to "put aside xenophobia, put aside all of our complaints that we might have, and sit down and discuss the differences." Fox said it also needs to be recognized that this is not just a one-way relationship, saying Mexico buys $250 billion of U.S. products every year, meaning "millions of jobs" to this country's economy.Chinas market potential, influence in Latin America, and perception of emergence are key to influenceEllis 11[R. Evan. Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University. Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study Joint Force Quarterly, Vol 60. 2011. http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html]The concept of soft power was introduced in 1990 by Harvard Professor Joseph Nye, who defined it as "a dynamic created by a nation whereby other nations seek to imitate that nation, become closer to that nation, and align its interests accordingly."1 Although the term is used to refer to a range of concepts, this article analyzes Chinese soft power in terms of the willingness of governments and other actors in the international system to orient themselves and behave in ways that benefit the PRC because they believe doing so to be in their own interests. Such a definition, by necessity, is incomplete. There are many reasons why other actors may decide that actions beneficial to the PRC are also in their own interests: they may feel an affinity for the Chinese culture and people and the objectives of its government, they may expect to receive economic or political benefits from such actions, or they may even calculate that the costs or risks of "going against" the PRC are simply too great. Soft power is a compelling concept, yet it operates through vaguely defined mechanisms. In the words of Nye, "in a global information age...success depends not only on whose army wins, but on whose story wins."2 The implications of soft power in the contemporary environment are difficult to evaluate because they involve a complex web of interconnected effects and feedback in which the ultimate results of an action go far beyond the initial stimulus and the ultimate importance of an influence goes far beyond what is initially apparent. This article examines Chinese soft power in the specific context of Latin America. The United States has long exercised significant influence in the region, while the PRC has historically been relatively absent. Nonetheless, in recent years, China's economic footprint in Latin America, and its attempts to engage the region politically, culturally, and otherwise, has expanded enormously. Understanding the nature and limits of PRC soft power in Latin America casts light on Chinese soft power in other parts of the world as well. In general, the bases of Chinese soft power differ from those of the United States, leading analysts to underestimate that power when they compare the PRC to the United States on those factors that are the sources of U.S. influence, such as the affinity of the world's youth for American music, media, and lifestyle, the widespread use of the English language in business and technology, or the number of elites who have learned their professions in U.S. institutions. It is also important to clarify that soft power is based on perceptions and emotion (that is, inferences), and not necessarily on objective reality. Although China's current trade with and investment position in Latin America are still limited compared to those of the United States,3 its influence in the region is based not so much on the current size of those activities, but rather on hopes or fears in the region of what it could be in the future. Because perception drives soft power, the nature of the PRC impact on each country in Latin America is shaped by its particular situation, hopes, fears, and prevailing ideology. The "Bolivarian socialist" regime of Hugo Chvez in Venezuela sees China as a powerful ally in its crusade against Western "imperialism," while countries such as Peru, Chile, and Colombia view the PRC in more traditional terms as an important investor and trading partner within the context of global free market capitalism. The core of Chinese soft power in Latin America, as in the rest of the world, is the widespread perception that the PRC, because of its sustained high rates of economic growth and technology development, will present tremendous business opportunities in the future, and will be a power to be reckoned with globally. In general, this perception can be divided into seven areas: hopes for future access to Chinese markets hopes for future Chinese investment influence of Chinese entities and infrastructure in Latin America hopes for the PRC to serve as a counterweight to the United States and Western institutions China as a development model affinity for Chinese culture and work ethic China as "the wave of the future." In each of these cases, the soft power of the PRC can be identified as operating through distinct sets of actors: the political leadership of countries, the business community, students and youth, and the general population. Economic engagement pushes out ChinaDowd 12[Alan. Senior Analyst at the American Security Council. Countering China's Reach in Latin America 2012. http://www.ascfusa.org/content_pages/view/crisisinamericas ]Second, the U.S. must stop taking the Western Hemisphere for granted, and instead must reengage in its own neighborhood economically, politically and militarily. That means no more allowing trade dealsand the partners counting on themto languish. Plans for a hemispheric free trade zone have faltered and foundered. The trade-expansion agreements with Panama and Colombia were left in limbo for years, before President Obama finally signed them into law in 2011. Reengagement means reviving U.S. diplomacy. The Wall Street Journal reports that due to political wrangling in Washington, the State Department position focused on the Western Hemisphere has been staffed by an interim for nearly a year, while six Western Hemisphere ambassadorial posts (Uruguay, Venezuela, Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Barbados) remain empty. Reengagement means reversing plans to slash defense spending. The Joint Forces Command noted in 2008 that China has a deep respect for U.S. military power. We cannot overstate how important this has been to keeping the peace. But with the United States in the midst of massive military retrenchment, one wonders how long that reservoir of respect will last. Reengagement also means revitalizing security ties. A good model to follow might be whats happening in Chinas backyard. To deter China and prevent an accidental war, the U.S. is reviving its security partnerships all across the Asia-Pacific region. Perhaps its time to do the same in Latin America. We should remember that many Latin American countriesfrom Mexico and Panama to Colombia and Chileborder the Pacific. Given Beijings actions, it makes sense to bring these Latin American partners on the Pacific Rim into the alliance of alliances that is already stabilizing the Asia-Pacific region.The plan crowds out Chinese influence market influence is key Johnson 5[Stephen. Senior Latin American Policy Analyst at Heritage. Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America 10/24/5 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america]In the 1960s, the Soviet Union defied America's Monroe Doctrine by supporting Fidel Castro's military buildup in Cuba. Later, it supported insurgencies in Central America. This triggered a competition among existing right-wing dictatorships, Marxist authoritarianism, and the U.S. democratic model. In the end, democracy and open markets won. Promoted by the United States, these principles have generally made Latin American states more viable politically, economically, and commercially. Today, another communist state-the People's Republic of China (PRC)-is seeking trade, diplomatic, and military ties in Latin America and the Caribbean. The region is rich in natural resources and developing markets for manufactured goods and even arms. China does not currently pose a direct military threat in Latin America and has steadily embraced market concepts, but it represents serious competition that could dilute U.S. influence. Washington could ignore this intrusion or attempt to contain it. Ignoring it leaves a vacuum for China to fill, while trying to contain it runs against America's own free market ideals. Instead, the United States can best look after its hemispheric interests and moderate China's presence by: Consolidating trade relations with Latin America and removing protectionist U.S. trade barriers, Emphasizing comprehensive relationships as opposed to narrow-interest diplomacy such as counternarcotics, Minimizing unproductive restrictions on assistance to U.S. neighbors, and Pressing harder for democratic and economic reforms, prioritizing support for these purposes, and reenergizing public diplomacy.More evidence US-China interests in Latin America are competitive and trade offJohnson 5[Stephen. Senior Latin American Policy Analyst at Heritage. Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America 10/24/5 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america]The United States and China have competing interests in Latin America. Washington would like to see its hemispheric neighbors develop into stable, democratic, prosperous trade partners that embrace the rule of law. Beijing sees the region as a source of raw materials, a market for manufactured goods, and a platform for power projection. U.S. interests probably coincide more with Latin American needs. In contrast, China represents an opportunity to temper American dominance with broader alliances. Regrettably, Chinese aid and commodity imports may buy time for state industries, powerful presidents, and influential oligarchs. Most of all, such commerce could delay needed reforms and industrialization that might lift Latin America's near majority underclass out of poverty. America's strength is competition, and it should influence the rules of the game in that direction. As a good neighbor and in its own and Latin America's interests, the United States should: Accelerate free trade agreements. Free trade agreements have been the hallmark of U.S. policies toward the region since the 1990s. As an inducement, America should drop its agricultural and steel subsidies that dissuade potential partners and cost taxpayers money. Improved U.S. trade relations with Andean neighbors (and eventually Southern Cone countries) will open market access for both U.S. and Latin American enterprises and provide an outlet for industrial growth. Adopt more comprehensive relationships. Single-issue diplomacy that emphasizes U.S. interests, such as counternarcotics, leaves vacuums in other areas such as security assistance and trade capacity development that other powers can fill. Plan Colombia is working because the United States is helping Colombia to combat terrorism, expand public safety zones, strengthen institutions, reactivate the economy, and promote rural peace.[11] Cut red tape on assistance. This policy should be followed to the greatest extent possible. Performance requirements are blunt instruments that do not cover every situation. Constraints such as annual certifications on counternarcotics cooperation and Article 98 letters that withhold security assistance occasionally backfire by withdrawing support for allies in areas of mutual interest. If Congress considers such restrictions absolutely necessary, it should tailor them to suspend only economic aid that is not crucial to immediate U.S. interests. Press harder for reforms and use public diplomacy. Once Latin America had elected leaders and fledgling markets in the 1990s, U.S. support for democracy and economic reforms declined. Although each country is responsible for solving its own problems, external pressure can encourage progress. U.S. public diplomacy, which is mostly reactive toward Latin America, should be strengthened and more supportive of U.S. development goals. The United States has become the greatest power in the world based on its tradition of free choice. Choice goes hand-in-hand with competition, because these keep markets vibrant and governments accountable. In a globalized world, democracies have relations with whom they wish and nation-competitors such as China cannot be blocked from visiting the Western Hemisphere. However, the United States can best look after its regional interests by cultivating closer political and security ties with neighbors, advancing free trade, and encouraging respect for the rule of law and liberal economic principles among all players- including China.The internal link is empirically true American inaction drives Chinese market expansion Johnson 5[Stephen. Senior Latin American Policy Analyst at Heritage. Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America 10/24/5 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america]In the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese are taking advantage of failures of half-hearted market reforms and Washington's unwillingness to pursue neighborhood relations with much enthusiasm. National Defense University professor Cynthia A. Watson notes, "[T]he 1990s turned into a period of severe disappointment as free markets led to rampant corruption and unfulfilled expectations in Latin America while Washington became the world's superpower rather than a partner for the region."[3]China Good: Energy Security 1st LineChinese influence in Latin Americas key to their energy security Xiaoxia 5-6[Wang. Staff Writer for the Economic Observer. In America's Backyard: China's Rising Influence In Latin America The Economic Observer, 5/6/13 http://worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/ ]Among the numerous needs of China, the demand for oil has always been the most powerful driving force. In the past 30 years, China has consumed one-third of the world's new oil production and become the world's second-largest oil importer. More than half of China's oil demand depends on imports, which increases the instability of its energy security. Diversification is inevitable. In this context, Latin America and its huge reserves and production capacity naturally became a destination for China. China must better protect its energy supply, and can't just play the simple role of consumer. It must also help solidify the important links of the petroleum industry supply chain. Indeed, the China National Petroleum Corporation frequently appears in Latin American countries, and Chinas investment and trade in the Latin American countries are also focused on its energy sector. In the opinion of many European and American scholars, China's current practice isnt much different from that of Western colonizers of the last century. These scholars believe that China doesnt care about local human rights or the state of democracy when dealing with countries. All China is interested in is establishing long-term, stable economic relations. This realistic path is exactly opposite to that of America's newfound idealism. Thus China has become a close collaborator of certain Latin American countries, such as Venezuela, that are in sharp conflict with the United States. The global financial crisis of 2008 was a chance for China to become an increasingly important player in Latin American. As Europe and the United States were caught in a financial quagmire, China, with nearly $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves as backing, embarked on "funds-for-assets" transactions with Latin American countries. So what does China want exactly in entering Latin American? Is it to obtain a stable supply of energy and resources, and thus inadvertently acquire political influence? Or the other way round? Presumably most U.S. foreign policy-makers are well aware of the answer. China's involvement in the Latin American continent doesnt constitute a threat to the United States, but brings benefits. It is precisely because China has reached "loans-for-oil" swap agreements with Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador and other countries that it brings much-needed funds to these oil-producing countries in South America. Not only have these funds been used in the field of oil production, but they have also safeguarded the energy supply of the United States, as well as stabilized these countries' livelihood -- and to a certain extent reduced the impact of illegal immigration and the drug trade on the U.S.Energy insecurity sparks Asian war Clement 12[Nicholas, China and India Vie for Energy Security, May 25, http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2012/05/25/china-and-india-vie-for-energy-security-11177.html]The competitive relationship between China and India has become a defining feature of the strategic environment across emerging Asia. While both nations are currently not in direct conflict, there are several areas of strategic interest which could potentially be clashing points in the future. Energy security is one such point; and while escalation between China and India is unlikely, it is important to note that the energy policies of each nation are largely based on geopolitical considerations. First, it is important to recognize that energy cooperation between China and India over the past decade has been increasing. In January 2006, for example, both nations signed a memorandum of cooperation in the field of oil and natural gas which encouraged collaboration between their enterprises, including joint exploration and development of hydrocarbon resources. Escalations in global energy prices and political uncertainties in the Middle East, however, have resulted in both countries looking for long-term arrangements. As China and India are increasingly forced to rely on the global oil market to meet their energy demands, they are more susceptible to supply disruptions and price fluctuations. In response, both countries have partly followed geopolitical energy policies, based on notions of traditional security. Ultimately, what we see is the arrival of military and political planning in trying to solve the issue of natural resource shortages. Energy security is of utmost strategic importance to China and India if they hope to continue to expand their economies. Rapid growth rates in both countries have grown in tandem with increased demand for energy. By 2020, it is estimated that China and India combined will account for roughly one-third of the worlds GDP and, as such, will require vast amounts of energy to fuel their economies. As such, the competition for energy resources such as oil and natural gas will only become fiercer. An important aspect of energy security is maritime control in the Asia-Pacific oceans. The sea lines of communication that run through Asia effectively act as the vital arteries for both countries. Maritime security is thus of major national interest for both China and India, and is directly linked to their energy security. Recent military modernization within China has been focused towards upgrading its naval capabilities, and ultimately moving towards creating a strong and powerful blue-water navy. Indias drive for maritime dominance has resulted in its naval budget increasing from US$1.3 billion in 2001 to US$3.5 billion in 2006, with plans to further increase naval spending 40 percent by 2014. Chinas thirst for oil has doubled over the last decade, and is only predicted to rise. Similarly, India relies on the energy shipped through maritime regions to fund its own industrialization. India continues to state its maritime goals in pure geopolitical terms, even explicitly acknowledging in their 2004 Maritime Doctrine that control of the choke points would be useful as a bargaining chip in the international power game, where the currency of military power remains a stark reality. Thus it is clear that energy security has been directly translated into a national security issue, which has both political and military implications. The geopolitical rivalry in Myanmar between China and India provides great insight into their adversarial energy relationship. In Myanmar, both Chinese and Indian geopolitical and geoeconomic interests collide, and as such, may become a point of contention between China and India. Myanmar holds vast strategic importance for both China and India due to its location and abundance of natural resources. It has vast reserves of natural gas, so for both China and India it is presented as a source of energy free from the geopolitical risks of the Middle East. There has thus been major