China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Security Challenges and...

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ISSN 2286-4822

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EUROPEAN ACADEMIC RESEARCH

Vol. VII, Issue 10/ January 2020

Impact Factor: 3.4546 (UIF)

DRJI Value: 5.9 (B+)

China Pakistan Economic Corridor:

Security Challenges and Sequence of Processes of

Domestic Resistance

RAHAT SHAH1

M.Sc. scholar in International Relations

School of International and Public Affairs

Jilin University, PR China

SHAKIR HUSSAIN




ASIF RASHEED




Abstract

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship

project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which envisages

economic growth and development in Pakistan. This corridor faces

some challenges especially related to its security. The first and

foremost security challenge it has is nonetheless related to the Indian

factor due to multiple reasons. The question arises that what are the

dominant causes and sequence of processes of domestic resistance to

CPEC in Baluchistan and other key areas of conflict around the

project? This paper argues that New Delhi has always supported the

insurgent group in Balochistan to interrupt this key project mainly to

counterbalance the growing influence of China and destabilize

Pakistan’s economic growth. Previously India has been involved in

various mysterious activities in Baluchistan such as supporting

terrorist for killing and kidnapping of Pakistani and Chinese workers.

1 Corresponding author: [email protected]

Rahat Shah, Shakir Hussain, Asif Rasheed- China Pakistan Economic Corridor:

Security Challenges and Sequence of Processes of Domestic Resistance

EUROPEAN ACADEMIC RESEARCH - Vol. VII, Issue 10 / January 2020

4821

Furthermore, the paper argues that weak domestic policies of Pakistan

also encouraged and gave space to insurgent group to conduct such

activities. Islamabad needs to strengthen the political Institutions and,

should use the advanced method of intelligence gathering and sharing

to secure CPEC.

Key words: CPEC, India‘s response, Insurgency in Balochistan, Pak-

China Relation, Belt and Road initiative

INTRODUCTION:

China has taken an initiative to achieve economic goals by investing

in infrastructure projects in the developing states.1The foremost

investment of China in Pakistan is CPEC which is the most important

project between both sates, however, it also faces serious challenges.

It has also increased the probability of conflicts between the interests

of various regional actors. On the one hand, it will strengthen

Pakistan‘s economy and will increase the influence of China in the

region. It will resolve Pakistan‘s issue such as an energy crisis, lack of

communication projects, and unemployment. On the other hand, India

is concerned about the future of CPEC, and wants to enhance own

political and economic domination in the region. However, ―Chinese

are relaxed about the rise of India‘ but ‗the Indians are much more

nervous about the rise of China‖.2They think that the domination

cannot be possible without encountering the influence of China and

the economic growth of Pakistan. New Delhi has supported

insurgency in Balochistan to sabotage this project such as the ruin of

the gas pipeline, killing and kidnapping of Pakistani and Chinese

workers, it has been corroborated by Indian officials. It also confirmed

by Pakistan top officials that India‘s intelligence wing RAW is

vandalizing the CPEC project.3Some scholar argues that the Indian

foreign policy main objective is to become a great power in the region

and it can be achieved by any means.4We argue that India has tried to

support the insurgent group in Balochistan to interrupt this key

project to counterbalance China‘s influence and destabilize Pakistan‘s

economic growth. We further argue that weak domestic policies of

Pakistan also encouraged and gave space to insurgent group to

conduct such activities. The Musharaf regime killed Akbar Bugti




4822

while the civilian governments did not focus on social welfare program

nor there a strong political institution to monitor the government‘s

performance.

Recently scholars have begun to pay attention to the positive

and negative impact of CPEC but approach to explore the underlying

thinking of India‘s policy towards this economic corridor is rare. Some

writers argue that the CPEC aim is peace and prosperity in the region

and does not target any state nor have to promote conflicts with

neighbors.5While some argues that this project is primarily

geopolitical rather than geo-economic.6The main objective of this

paper is that to date, sabotage of this project and its reasons have not

yet been discussed in scholarly papers. It seems that this question

―What are the dominant causes and sequence of processes of domestic

resistance to CPEC in Baluchistan and other key areas of conflict

around the project?‖ has probably become more salient because more

have concentrated on the narrow topics of CPEC but they have

ignored the underline issue. The aforementioned arguments are

predicated by using the system and sub-system theoretical approach

of neoclassical realism. The system-level approach focuses on India

support of insurgent group while the sub-system focuses on domestic

weak policies of Pakistan. Using this approach our analysis shows

that the External factor is less dominant than internal one. We have

used the case study of the Balochistan province of Pakistan. This

paper aims to view the CPEC and its prospects in detail. Further, it

will explain the security threats it has and possible solutions to the

ongoing problem attached to it. This paper will help both China and

Pakistan‘s policymakers and governments to understand the intention

of India and to secure CPEC.

OVERVIEW OF CPEC

To understand the CPEC we have to know the Pak-China

relationship. Bothstates‘ relationship began in 1950; Pakistan was the

first Islamic state who recognized the People's Republic of China

(PRC). The relation got strengthened by the time; Islamabad cast a

vote in favor of Beijing to restore its right in the United Nations. In

response, China did help Pakistan in the 1965 war when Washington

refused to give aid to Pakistan. However, China did not provide

military support to Pakistan against India in 1971, and Pakistan lost




4823

East Pakistan (Bangladesh).7However, after 1970 the all-weather

relationship further strengthened. Beijing did help in a different kind

of projects such as the Karakoram Highway (KKH), the Heavy

Mechanical Complex (HMC) and Heavy Forge and Foundry (HFF) in

Taxila, the Machine Tool Plant in Karachi, and the Gwadar port in

Balochistan.8 To cement the economic cooperation and to remove the

trade barrier by reducing tariffs and to increase the trade of goods and

services with each other both states signed the Free Trade

Agreement. The First time China and Pakistan signed the Free Trade

Agreement (FTA) in 2006, it came being into practice on July 2007. It

had contained the phase I and phase II, the first phase had ended in

2012 and the second had started in 2013. The total trade volume in

2006 was US$ 3.5 billion, which speedily increased to US$ 14.3 billion

in 2013.9 Further, recently Beijing and Islamabad have been signed

the second stage FTA agreement during Prime Minister Imran Khan's

visit to China on 28th April 2019. Under this agreement, Pakistan will

export goods to China such as leather, chemicals, auto parts, rubber,

plastic, furniture, seafood, and meat. Due to zero percent on 313 tariff

lines, it will increase the country exports earning by U.S $500m

within 18 months. 10

Further, to invigorate the all-weather relationship, China

started the CPEC project. It is an energy and infrastructure

development project. It was launched in April 2015 when the

president and chairperson of the Central Military Commission of the

People's Republic of China Xi Jinping visited Islamabad and met with

Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif.

The Potential areas of development included Special Economic Zone

(SEZ), to upgrade the existed railway line, new energy sector

establishment, and construction of new roads and railway lines to

connect the major parts of Pakistan. In simple words, CPEC is the

name of regional connectivity, which will connect Beijingand

Islamabad with the other Central Asian States. This project starts

from China‘s autonomous province Xinjiang to ends at Gwadar port in

Balochistan. CPEC have divided into three phases, short-term, mid-

term, and long-term projects, the development of economic zones is

the most important phase. The Initial value of CPEC was a $46 billion

package of Chinese aid to investment in Pakistan, although total had

reached $62 billion.11




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The total length of CPEC from Kashgar in Xinjiang to Gwadar port is

3000 KM. Geographically it is divided into five parts which cover all

provinces of Pakistan means it passes through Punjab, Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Balochistan, and semi-provincial Gilgit

Baltistan. It starts from Gwadar port in Balochistan and goes toward

Karachi and other parts of Sind province, and then passes through

Punjab province and reaches toward the capital of Pakistan

Islamabad. Then passes from Islamabad to other districts of KPK

such as Abbottabad, and Mansehra and at last, it reaches to Gilgit

Baltistan and where it connects with Xinjiang.12

Further; to get access to the natural resources in the region

the CPEC will pass through Peshawar to connect the Central Asian

Republic states with China and Pakistan. Afghanistan will be

connected through Peshawar by Torkham border. The district Dir will

be also the shortest way to connect Afghanistan with Pakistan

because the distance from Dir lower to Kunar province is only 97.5 km

and takes only 3 hours to reach Kunar in Afghanistan.

HOW CPEC IS ESSENTIAL FOR PAKISTAN:

The CPEC is an essential project to enhance Pakistan‘s economy and

to overwhelm the energy crisis, and also for the economic influence of

China in the region. The World Bank had mentioned in a report that

Pakistan is losing annually US $18 billion which had equal to 6.5% of

GDP in the fiscal year of 2015, due to the power sectors unable to

produce sufficient energy.13 In 2014 the power station was to produce

22,957.4 MW energy while the total demand was 17000 MW and the

shortfall was 4000-5000 MW.14In this section, we examine how CPEC

have a positive impact on Pakistan‘s economy, energy, and how can

increase the influence of China in the region. The CPEC is divided

into three phases; short-term, mid-term, and long-term projects. We

have selected short-term projects because it has already been

completed and operational. The first project is the Zonergy 9 × 100

MW solar powers, which energized since March 2016 located at

Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park in Bahawalpur in Punjab. It has created

more than 3000 jobs for the local people and special training, have

provided to more than 50 students of the University of Engineering

and Technology (UET) and Islamia University of Bahawalpur (IUB).15




4825

Further, ―According to the statistical data, approximately 459 million

KWH could be generated in 1 year. Official statistics from GOP

(Government of Pakistan) show that the annual amount of electricity

consumption in the region is 1,481 million KWH for 13 hospitals, 17

police stations, 7 railway stations, 554 secondary schools, 12 colleges,

4 universities, 130 factories (big and small) and 560,000 households in

this region. At present, the electricity generated from Zonergy 3×100

MW solar power plants could meet 30% electricity demand of

Bahawalpur region. In addition, Zonergy has paid PKR 1033 million

of taxes and levies.‖16 It will further improve the growth of industries

and will overcome the energy crisis in Pakistan. It will encourage

those capitalists who have shifted their industries to other countries

due to the previous shortfall which have affected Rs.14 billion

Pakistan‘s economy.17The first priority of the CPEC project is to

install energy projects to overcome energy shortfall, to do so the

textile industries will achieve 60 % growth, and will produce valuable

products.18According to the statement of the World Bank that

Pakistan‘s economic growth increased from 5.4 percent in 2017 to 5.8

percent in 2018 due to the CPEC project.19The CPEC has attracted

foreigner investors the state bank of Pakistan have mentioned that

due to CPEC the rate of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2016-17

has increased to 5 % (US$2.41 billion) which was US$2.30 billion in

2015-16.20

CPEC has further improved the function of different

industries due to overcoming the energy crisis, most industries have

been normalized and exporting valuable products, due to which the

rate of export has been increased to 12.0 % while the rate of imports

has been decreased to 16.6 % which was 48 % at the start of the 2018

financial year.21The primary focus is to overcome the energy crisis, the

working has expedited on 15 energy projects which can produce

11,110MW, among which 7 projects have already completed and 6 are

under construction with a total capacity of 6,910MW. One of the

positive impacts is that the tariff of power plants have been reduced

from 16 to 1818 PKR to around 8 PKR per unit.22 Further, Gwadar

has become a great hub for economic activities due to free zone policy

approximately 30 companies have invested with direct investment of

about $474 million.23 Special Economic Zone (SEZ) plays a very

important role in economic development to attract foreign investment

that‘s the reason both state leaders focus on the development of the




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SEZ. The SEZ has already played an important role in China‘s

economy, the open door policy was attracted many investors from

different states. Therefore, the government of Pakistan has decided to

develop 46 SEZ projects, where four provinces will be 9 SEZ, and

Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir for each will total four

SEZ, and two for Islamabad capital.24

Further in short term projects, four wind projects have

already completed which have added 300MW to the national grid,

which will encourage local industries to produce valuable products.

The detail of these projects are Dawood wind power a project with the

capacity of 50 MW, Sachal an energy wind farm with a capacity of

50MW, and three gorges second wind farm project with the capacity of

100MW, and UEP wind farm project with the capacity of

100MW.25Due to CPEC‘s completed projects, the rural population‘s

one of the biggest issues of electricity has resolved somehow the

access to electricity in 2015 was 90.3% which increased to 98.8% in

2016. Further, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

that (due to CPEC) $13 billion will be added to Pakistan‘s GDP.26The

first phase focus was on the energy sector. "Meanwhile, in the second

phase, under the incumbent government, agriculture, education,

health, water, skill-based education, skill development, transport

projects and upgrading of Main Line-1 will be done,".27 Chinese senior

official has mentioned that CPEC is beneficial for Pakistan and as

well as for the whole region and no one can impair it. He further said

that ―Sometimes there are reports in the media (against the CPEC)

and some people also give their opinion but a large majority knows it

is for the betterment of the whole region,‖.28

Our analysis shows that the CPEC project is not only

important for Pakistan but also for China because of its national

interest to save time and capital and to easily access to Eurasian

states. For example, the shipments from Port of Salalah to Kashgar

port by existence way takes 27 days while by CPEC it will take only 7

days, same Shuwaikh Port by existence way to Kashgar it takes 32

days while by CPEC it will take only 8 days.29 It shows that China can

easily save transport cost $1350 (32.9%) to import and export to all of

Europe and more than $1450 (41.4%) in the Middle East.30Here the

finding shows that CPEC will further boost the Pakistan economy and

shows that CPEC will strengthen the influence of China in the region,




4827

CPEC provides short access to China to reach Eurasian states in a

cheap and secure way.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND TESTING HYPOTHESIS

The main research question is, ―What are the dominant causes and

sequence of processes of domestic resistance to CPEC in Baluchistan

and other key areas of conflict around the project?‖. For this purpose,

we have developed two hypotheses, which we will explain in this

section. To test the hypotheses we have selected neoclassical realism

theory that is most suitable in this case. This approach tells us that

what factor have more dominant than other, so we have find that the

internal factor is more dominant then external one. Neoclassical

realism is an approach to foreign policy analysis, and initially

developed by Gideon Rose in a 1998 World Politics review article, it is

a combination of classical realism and neorealist – particularly

defensive realist – theories. The classical realism generally focuses

just on 'hard' military power instead of relative economic power and

considers international politics instead of domestic. The structural

realist such as Kenneth Waltz focuses on the structure of the system

instead of the subsystem. The system-level only gives us a complete

and comprehensive image of the whole system but cannot give in-

depth and rich information about the individual state. Gideon Rose

explains, ―Neoclassical realists argue that relative material power

establishes the basic parameters of a country's foreign policy; they

note, in Thucydides' formula, that "the strong do what they can and

the weak suffer what they must."31 The main actors in the process of

foreign policymaking are state leaders and elite class; they perceive

that relative power is important due to which every state react

differently.32

One of the important significance of neoclassical realism is; it

deeply focuses on a unit-level variable purpose to achieve predictive

clarity about state foreign policy.33 And at the same time, it focuses on

the system-level variable and argues that international pressure plays

an important role in state foreign policy.34 The Neoclassical realists

claim to predict specific foreign policy or historical events which

neorealist and other class of realist family can‘t predict, the

neorealism has some limitation and can only predict and explain

international politics instead of domestic.35 The ―Neoclassical realism,




4828

an approach which combines elements of system, structure and

domestic politics, of material and ideational factors, need to analyses

international relations from a plural perspective. And further, the

statesmen developing postures for their nations in often violent

competition with others.‖36Which here we took the example of Prime

Minister of India Narendra Modi‘s assertive policies to impair CPEC.

CASE STUDY OF BALOCHISTAN:

Previously New Delhi has been involved in various mysterious

activities in Baluchistan such as supporting terrorist for killing and

kidnapping of Pakistani and Chinese workers and attacks on different

projects. Furthermore, the weak domestic policies of Pakistan also

encouraged and gave space to insurgent group to conduct such

activities. It is traced with special emphasis given to domestic and

international politics. The case of International politics means the

involvement of India in Balochistan and domestic politics means the

ignorant domestic policies of Pakistan. To test our first argument the

primary and secondary sources data have collected from academic

papers and contemporary media while the tenure of data is from 2015

to early 2019. To analyze the second argument the data is collected

from contemporary media and the tenure of data is 2006-2017.

Testing Case: India Involvement

Hypothesis 1: External influences are instigating resource

nationalism in Balochistan which is leading to opposition to CPEC

India is not happy with CPEC, for example, the external affairs

Minister of India Sushma Swaraj said that ―Prime Minister during his

the visit (to China) took up the issue very firmly and spoke very

strongly that the CPEC going through POK (Pakistan-occupied

Kashmir) is unacceptable,‖.37Nicholas Kitchen explains that the state

leader always tries to achieve their national interest and for this

purpose, they use military and nonmilitary techniques to achieve it.38

In this section, we will explain what is the reality behind the

reservation of India and why they want to impair this project. India

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has clearly mentioned that India will

try to use all-out means to spoil this project which shows that the




4829

intention of India is not positive regarding CPEC and can‘t see

Pakistan as a strong economic state.39 Modi returned back to India

after his visit to China and asked the RAW official that how to

damage this project, this statement is confirmed by an arrested RAW

spy in Pakistan. Also personally confirmed by Modi in his

Independence Day speech, as he states, ―Today from the ramparts of

Red Fort, I want to greet and express my thanks to some people. In

the last few days, people of Balochistan, Gilgit, Pakistan-occupied

Kashmir have thanked me, have expressed gratitude and expressed

good wishes for me. The people who are living far away, whom I have

never seen, never met — such people have expressed appreciation for

Prime Minister of India, for 125 crore countrymen,‖40 This statement

gives a birth to the question that why people of mentioned areas

thanked Narendra Modi, the answer to this question is only possible

theoretically which support our hypothesis. Further, a question arises

why did not Kashmiri people thank Narendra Modi, maybe the reason

that the Kashmiri nation wants independence but India don‘t ready

for this or maybe other reason, however, this question is not the part

of our discussion.

Gideon Rose explains that the policymakers of each state will

always respond according to what they understand about the

situation.41In response to Narendra Modi speech, the ex-adviser to

Prime Minister of Pakistan on foreign policy Sartaj Aziz said that

―[Narendra] Modi‘s reference to Balochistan, which is an integral part

of Pakistan, only proves Pakistan‘s contention that India through its

main intelligence agency RAW has been fomenting terrorism in

Balochistan‖. He more said that ―This was also confirmed by the

public confession of RAW‘s active service naval officer, Kulbhushan

Jadhav,‖.42Ouranalysisshows that the reality behind India‘s

reservation is only to strengthen its relative power to achieve great

power in the region. Neoclassical realism explains that the state

always tries to achieve more influence abroad because of their relative

power and pursue this is the best way to achieve the desired goal, and

further whenever their relative power rises they will tend to seek

more influence abroad.43 This is the main reason behind India‘s

reservation that why they want to impair the CPEC project. In

previous literature, this important issue has been ignored, however,

some scholars have mentioned but not more than in one or two lines,

the primary sources data is only available in contemporary media.




4830

The Indian government has assigned a special task to Indian

Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) to impair CPEC project.

―Secretary Defence Gen (retd.) AlamKhattakasserts, ―RAW has

established a special cell headquarters in New Delhi to impairCPEC

project and the plan is carried out via Afghanistan.‖ India further

strengthens its relationship with Afghanistan by training the Afghan

army and using them for the purpose of destabilizing Pakistan.44

On March 3, 2016, Pakistan arrested Kulbhushan Jadhav

Indian commanding officer during the investigation he has admitted

his involvement in the impair and terrorist activities in Balochistan

province of Pakistan, Jadhav mentioned in his confessional statement

that Indian Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is supporting various

terrorist groups to impair CPEC, especially in Balochistan province,

RAW is more lively which purpose is to economically destabilize

Pakistan.45 Further, he said that India is 'directly sponsored' "various

financing which subsequently happened for the Tehreek-i-Taliban

Pakistan (TTP) and various other Afghan anti-Pakistani terrorist

groups led to the attack by TTP on one of the Mehran Naval Base in

which a lot of damage was the cost to the Pakistan Navy‖.46 He

further mentioned that another kind of attacks are "funded and

directly supported by Anil Kumar (Chief of RAW)" included a "sort of

radar installation attack, the Sui pipeline gas attack, then attacks on

civilian bus stations where some, I suppose, Pakistani nationals were

being targeted by sub-national and murdered and massacred".47 The

main purpose of these kinds of activities were to pressurize the

government and to impair and impair this project by any possible

tactics. Further Pakistan General Zubair Mahmood Hayat NI the

16th Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee stated that RAW has

allocated $500 million budget in 2015 for the purpose to impair CPEC

projects.48 The Chief of RAW is personally active and supervising its

team to impair this project by any means and follow the guidelines of

PM Modi because he is not happy with this project and feel a threat to

its interest.49 The RAW is also cooperating with other foreign

Intelligence agencies to support and use the local group in

Balochistan to impairCPEC.50 The analysis of this evidence shows

that India main objective is to strengthen its relative power which is

required to achieve great power in the region. In 2015 after took office

Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared its national interest and

policy that we want to be a great power in the region.51




4831

Further to support, our hypothesis we have quoted here the confession

statement of the spokesperson of Tehreek Taliban Pakistan

Ehsanullah Ehsan who has surrendered to Pakistan‘s security forces.

He mentioned in his confession statement ―When we moved to

Afghanistan from North Waziristan, I saw that Taliban leadership

fostered relations with Indian RAW agency that financed the Taliban

and even gave targets. Taliban received a reward [from RAW] of every

action in Pakistan. They left fighters to face Pakistan Army while

they themselves sought refuge in secure hideouts‖.52 Here it confirms

that RAW is supporting insurgent groups in Pakistan they have

conducted impair activities in Balochistan; this statement is already

confirmed by Kulbhushan Jadhav. To further support, our hypothesis

in this section we have described those activities that are conducted

by insurgent groups with the support of RAW to create uncertainty

and panic to pressurize both China and Pakistan government to

impair this project. In 2015 the RAW supported the local militant

group attacked the air traffic control radar in Pasni area of the

Gwadar district to put pressure on the government to impair and

impair this project.53 In September 2016 approximately 44 Pakistani

workers had been killed by the insurgent group and further, two

Chinese workers were kidnapped in June 2017 which were killed

later.54 Further, in August 2018 Chinese workers were targeted in

Balochistan province in an attack on the bus these workers were

working in Saindak mining project, which is controlled by Chinese

state-owned Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC).55

Further, the RAW spy confirmed that RAW has supported the

local insurgent group in a different part of Balochistan to destroy the

Sui pipeline gas. The Sui Pipeline gas attacks which are conducted in

2015-2018 are: DeraMuradJamali / Naseerabad District, and

Sohbatpur /Jaffarabad District In January, DeraBugti, Peshbogi /

DeraBugti District, PirKoh / DeraBugtiDistrict in the month of

February, and PirKoh and Loti / DeraBugti District, Zainkoh / Loti /

DeraBugti District, Dera Allah Yar / Jaffarabad District, March 2015.

Further, PirKoh / Dera Bugti District, Per Koh / DeraBugti District in

2016 and Jalal /Bolan in 2017.56 The targeting of Chinese workers and

different kind of bomb blast main purpose is to panic among Chinese

and Pakistani officials and to coerce them to impair this project, but

China and Pakistan want CPEC to succeed at all costs. CPEC will

change the fate of Baloch people and will enhance the economic




4832

strength of this province; however, the stability of Balochistan

province is very important for successful completion of CPEC. India

worries about the CPEC and having a different kind of reservation

and thinks that China may use the Gwadar port for military

purpose.57 India thinks that if CPEC successfully completed then

India will unable to achieve the desired goal of great power in the

region. The neoclassical realism explains that the misperception is

always driven by the weak information of intelligence and other

sources, which state used during the policy-making process.58

Here hypothesis yielding powerful evidence that India‘s main

objective is to economically destabilize Pakistan and to strengthen

own economic power. That is the main reason India wants to impair

the CPEC project because CPEC will strengthen the economic power

of Pakistan. It is not the first time that India can destabilize the

economic strength of Pakistan but also we have an example of 1960

and 1971s. In these eras, Pakistan GDP was higher than India, the

total GDP of India was 81.3% and while 82.5% of Pakistan. It had

highly disrupted by India‘s wars with Pakistan in 1965 and

1971.59India‘s foreign policymakers focus on isolating Pakistan in the

world and to propagate the bad image of Pakistan (CPEC) in the

whole world and economically destabilize it.60 Pakistan and India are

the rival states, from the starting of independence India are not happy

with the independence of Pakistan, the first Prime Minister of India

Jawaharlal Nehru had mentioned that the independence of Pakistan

is not on a permanent base and we will destroy it soon.61 This

situation is explained by neoclassical realism that the state leaders

always keep a strong focus on the relative power of another state

when they making foreign policy and defining its national interest.62

That time their national interest was to make Pakistan a part of

India, while now its national interest is to seek great power in the

region and to economically destabilize Pakistan. The analysis shows

that India sabotaging the CPEC project for the purpose to strengthen

its relative power which is required to achieve great power. They

think that China aids to Pakistan will strengthen Pakistan economic

and strategic influence over India and will be a threat to its national

interest.63 They think if CPEC is not impaired and impaired on time,

then India will not able to strengthen its relative power to fulfill great

power dream in the region.




4833

Here, we further argue that the CPEC project is not important only

for Pakistan but also for China; the most important is that after

successful completion, China will get rid of the Strait of Malacca. The

Straight Malacca is one of the major security concerns of China‘s sea

route and during the time of conflicts, India can destroy China‘s

energy-carrying ships.64 While CPEC is the most secure route for

China this is the reason why we argue that the impair of CPEC will

directly affect on Chinese economic interests in the region. The total

percent of China importing oil by sea route is 83 % while out of which

77 % are importing by Strait of Malacca, the piracy activities and

geopolitics issues will badly affect the economic development of

China.65 A scholar noted that ―about 60% of world pirate occurrences

take place in the Strait of Malacca and presence of the Indian and US

armada in the seaway raises serious security concerns and in case of

any unforeseen actions can affect trade and economic supplies of

China‖.66 Other than oil product, 30 % of natural gas also importing by

this 800km narrow route it is sure that during any kind of dangerous

events will result to spoil the economy of China.67 If India succeeds to

impair the CPEC project then there will be no option for China to

except to use the current route of Strait of Malacca. During any

conflicts, India can easily destroy the energy-carrying ships and can

counterbalance the influence of China. Gideon Rose explains that the

state wants to control their environment for that, the state leaders

seek international influence and engage in politics beyond their own

state and focus to increase the strength and a number of

armies.68India is increasing navy in the Indian Ocean and has

capabilities of nuclear submarine and the aircraft carrier INS

Vikramaditya with Mig-29 K fighters and Kamov helicopters.69Due to

these capabilities, Indian can counterbalance the influence of China in

the Indian Ocean Region.

Another reason that India wants to impair CPEC project is

because of its past experience that due to the Gulf war in 1990-91

Indian overseas was unable to support their country economy which

directly affected the Indian economy and compelled to take a loan

from IMF.70 Fareed Zakaria explains that the relative power such as

relative economic power plays a very important role in history if we

look at the Soviet Union expansionism policy failed while America‘s

succeed because of US relative economic power and the technology

was stronger than the Soviet Union.71 That the reason India wants to




4834

strengthen its relative power and worries that if CPEC successfully

completed, then it will badly affect on Indian economy once again.

After successful completion of CPEC will directly affect on UAE‘s

Jebel Ali port and UAE will lose approximately 70 % of its

business.72It will not only affect on the UAE‘s economy but will affect

the Indian economy because of the Indian capitalist will lose business.

Currently, 788 Indian companies are trading from Jebel Ali Free Zone

India total trade India reached USD 3.4 billion in 2017, Jebel Ali port

plays a fundamental role in supporting India's trade.73Our theoretical

approach shows that the state [India] always seeking hegemony and

efforts to maximize own relative power and to gain power it will

counterbalance another state [China].74 Our evidence further shows

that CPEC will strengthen the influence of China and the region by

providing short and secure access to desired Eurasian states. At least

it will resolve the Strait of Malacca issue, which is very dangerous for

China. However, our hypothesis claims that impair of CPEC will

directly affect the influence of China and India would success to

achieve great power in the region. Our first hypothesis yielded a

result that the external factor is less dominant than the internal one.

This is true that India is clandestinely supporting the insurgency and

has more resources to continuously support them. But the tense of

insurgency directly depends on the internal factors if there are more

domestic grievances with Islamabad than India will easily success to

get the support of insurgent groups and it will increase the likelihood

of sabotage activities. If the government once controlled on domestic

factor then it is impossible for New Delhi to sabotage this project.

Testing Case: Pakistan’s ignorant domestic policies

Here we test our second argument for domestic ignorant policies case;

we will show only the abstracts because of the space considerations.

Here we show that why the populace of Balochistan became the part

of the insurgent group and take support from India to impair the

CPEC, for this we have to test the following hypothesis/argument.

Hypothesis 2: Domestic grievances with the Pakistani government

and its management of the project are the dominant force in resistance

to CPEC




4835

Here we argue that India is not only responsible for the impair

activities because Pakistan‘s ignorant policies have created this

environment. The issue of insurgency in Balochistan date back 1947

however; here we take three areas to find the reason and get the

solution for how to secure CPEC from impairing. In On 26 August

2006, General Musharaf killed the Nawab Akbar Bugti because he

was joined the militant insurgent group; he was the head of the Bugti

tribe of Baloch people who served as the Minister of State for Interior

and Governor of Balochistan Province.75 That brought the Bugti tribe

into the fifth round of the insurgency in Balochistan. Due to weak

policies, the regime had taken the wrong decision; in fact, it was the

time to focus on the education, social welfare, and unemployment

issue of Balochistan. The issue could be resolved by dialogues and

provide the legal rights to them instead of killing which had led the

people into Inferiority. This had the main issue which compelled them

to conduct sabotage activates. However, due to a weak institution and

lack of interest, the Musharaf regime did not focus on the above-

mentioned issue.

Same in 2013, President Zardari after took hold they move

toward development programs such as NFC and ‗Aghaz E

HuqooqBalochistan‘ (AEHB) during his era but did not succeed to

overcome on the basic issue because of corruption and ignorant

policies. The fake job issue occurred instead to hire local people the job

were provided to non-local people.76 The literacy rate dropped by 3% to

43% in 2013-14.77While the unemployment rate increased from 3.9 to

4.0%.78Same Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took hold in 2013 to 2018

but did not take any interest in the developmental programs to

overcome on above issues; he ignored the NFC and ‗Aghaz E

HuqooqBalochistan‘ programs.79 These kinds of ignorant and weak

policies compelled the people to join the insurgent groups and to take

support from foreign intelligence agencies such as India to sabotage

the CPEC project. This issue can be resolved by these policies; first,

the present government of Pakistan needs to strengthen the political

institution such as NAB, Judiciary and other institutes to monitor

and keep check and balance on social welfare programs in

Balochistan. Another policy could be the government need to meet the

leaders of insurgent groups and resolve the issues by dialogues and

should immediately resolve the legal and constitutional demand of

them. The government should cross-check the NFC and AEHB and




4836

ratifies the gray area if needed. Other than it the government should

focus on education under CPEC the government should assure to hire

the local residents in different projects and provide a platform for

business and investments. Our analysis shows that the internal

factor is more dominant than the external one because the weak

domestic policies of Pakistan have encouraged and gave space to

insurgent group to conduct such activities. The external factor is

dependent on internal factor if the government improved the quality

of political institutions and launches the social welfare programs then

it will change the perception of Baloch citizens and will become pro-

Pakistani instead of anti. If they failed to do so will increase the

likelihood of Baloch people to get the support of any external third

states to sabotage the CPEC.

CONCLUSION:

This article shows that although CPEC is an important project

between Beijing and Islamabad, it also faces serious challenges. It has

also increased the probability of conflicts between the interests of

various regional actors. On the one hand, Pakistan is losing annually

US $18 billion, due to the energy crisis. The CPEC will strengthen the

economy of Pakistan and China‘s economic influence in the region.

The short-term completed project shows that CPEC is fulfilling the

requirements; an example is the 30% electricity issue has been

resolved in Bahawalpur. Further, Pakistan‘s economic growth has

increased from 5.4 percent in 2017 to 5.8 percent in 2018, and also has

increased 5% of FDI. It further has increased the rate of export to 12.0

% while decreased 16.6 % of imports. CPEC will also enhance China‘s

influence in the region because CPEC is the shortest and secure route

to save time and capital and to easily access to Eurasian and Central

Asian states. Currently, the duration of the arrival of ships from

different states to China is 27 and 32 days which will decrease to 7

and 8 days respectively. China can save US $1350 and $1450 on

imports from the EU and the Middle East.

On the other hand India wants to enhance own political and

economic influences in the region. They think it cannot be possible

without encountering the influence of China and the economic growth

of Pakistan. Narendra Modi and the RAW spy Kalbushan have

confirmed the insurgency in Balochistan to sabotage the CPEC. Such




4837

as the Sui Pipeline gas attacks, the killing of two Chinese and 44

Pakistani workers. Another reason, New Delhi has the misperception

that CPEC will affect 788 Indian companies that work in the Jabel Ali

port. These are possible reasons due to which India supports the

insurgency in Balochistan to halt this project. Besides, the Prime

Minister of India Narendra Modi is rational and has assertive policies;

one of the recent examples is India‘s attack in Pakistan on Feb 27,

2019. India violated the Line of Control (LoC) — undertook strikes

across the LoC from Pakistani airspace. In response, "[The] PAF

(Pakistan Air Force) shot down two Indian aircrafts inside Pakistani

airspace.

If the issue of insurgency is not resolved on time it could be so

dangerous in the future as ―Thucydides wrote his famous history of

the Peloponnesian War over 2000 years ago, to help those who want to

understand clearly the events which happened in the past, and which

(human nature being what it is) will, at some time or other and in

much the same ways, be repeated in the future‖.80 It will a bad effect

on FDI the foreigner will not invest in Gwadar due to fear of losing

money. Without resolving these issues the ‗game-changer‘ will become

‗game-tension‘. Islamabad needs to strengthen the political

Institutions and, should use the advanced method of intelligence

gathering and sharing to secure CPEC.

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4843

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