China Coal Market Situation (JYD Presentation PPT)
29
Transcript of China Coal Market Situation (JYD Presentation PPT)
World Energy Demand Structure in 2013
Oil (%) Gas(%) Coal(%) Nuclear(%) Hydro-(%) Renewable(%) Total(%)
World 33.6 23.8 29.6 5.2 6.5 1.3 100.0
OECD 38.0 25.1 19.8 9.4 5.6 2.2 100.0
USA 37.2 27.2 23.0 8.4 2.6 1.7 100.0
China 17.6 4.0 70.5 0.7 6.7 0.5 100.0
Russia 21.4 53.9 13.6 5.6 5.5 0.0 100.0
Japan 40.2 17.0 24.7 13.2 3.9 1.0 100.0
India 29.7 10.6 53.0 1.0 4.8 1.0 100.0
Germany 36.0 22.9 23.9 10.0 1.3 5.8 100.0
Canada 32.3 26.7 7.4 6.4 26.2 1.0 100.0
France 33.0 16.7 4.8 38.4 5.7 1.3 100.0
UK 35.2 40.4 14.9 6.7 0.4 2.3 100.0
S. Korea 41.4 15.1 29.8 13.1 0.3 0.2 100.0
Since 2000, China coal production has maintained fast growth. According to National Bureau of Statistics, the average annual growth rate of coal production reached 8.3%. During the years, 2000 to 2002 experienced quite modest growth due to Asia Financial Crisis in 1998. Starting from 2002, the fasting growing demand stimulated the coal production enlargement. During 2006-2008, the coal production was further boosted by expanding demand from downstream sectors. In 2008, China suffered the negative influence from global economy depression, so the coal output growth reversed the continuous increase trend but still remained high. In 2013, China's coal output was 3,680 million tons, with a narrowing growth of 0.8% from 2012.
China Coal Production
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%Output Growthmln T
China Coal Output and Growth During 2000-2013
The average annual growth rate of steam coal production in China amounted to 6.6% during 2005 and 2013. Since 2006, China coal industry has gained more and more investment with bigger output stimulated by rapid economic development. Influenced by 2008 financial crisis, steam coal demand in 2009 shrunk with smaller growth rate on output. Stimulated by 4 trillion yuan investment plan after the crisis, the steam coal demand from power and building materials sectors increased again, so high-speed growth on steam coal production appeared during 2009 and 2011. In 2012, steam coal output was even decreased due to domestic economy slowdown and control on real-estate sector.
China Steam Coal Production
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China Steam Coal Output and Growth During 2005-2013
China Steam Coal Production
China Provincial Steam Coal Production 2005-2013 mln T
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China 1,605.0 1,728.0 1,821.0 2,000.0 2,118.0 2,318.0 2,542.0 2,488.5 2,685.5
Beijing 5.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Hebei 49.0 53.0 52.0 54.0 54.0 63.0 56.0 63.5 63.5
Shanxi 425.0 455.0 469.0 443.0 352.0 416.0 474.0 457.0 465.0
Inner Mongolia 239.0 256.0 303.0 388.0 462.0 591.0 711.0 731.0 767.0
Liaoning 47.0 50.0 46.0 47.0 50.0 42.0 42.0 36.0 36.0
Jilin 16.0 17.0 21.0 24.0 32.0 29.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Heilongjiang 34.0 36.0 36.0 38.0 39.0 37.0 36.0 36.0 36.0
Jiangsu 23.0 24.0 20.0 21.0 21.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 106.0
Anhui 56.0 60.0 67.0 71.0 80.0 81.0 77.0 76.0 76.0
Fujian 14.0 14.0 17.0 18.0 21.0 18.0 16.0 13.0 12.0
Jiangxi 17.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 18.0 17.0
Shandong 100.0 108.0 106.0 110.0 114.0 115.0 115.0 100.0 99.0
Henan 119.0 127.0 135.0 145.0 177.0 135.0 169.0 126.0 127.0
Hubei 8.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.0 11.0
Hunan 38.0 41.0 44.0 49.0 56.0 49.0 52.0 51.0 50.0
Guangxi 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Chongqing 54.0 58.0 53.0 56.0 57.0 48.0 45.0 37.0 37.0
Sichuan 24.0 26.0 29.0 31.0 33.0 32.0 31.0 25.0 24.0
Guizhou 65.0 70.0 61.0 73.0 85.0 97.0 92.0 99.0 112.0
Yunnan 46.0 49.0 53.0 58.0 58.0 64.0 63.0 61.0 66.0
Shaanxi 138.0 148.0 164.0 206.0 232.0 275.0 299.0 313.0 326.0
Gansu 23.0 31.0 32.0 34.0 34.0 38.0 38.0 36.0 43.0
Qinghai 5.0 6.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 14.0 16.0 17.0 19.0
Ningxia 25.0 27.0 31.0 37.0 39.0 47.0 50.0 49.0 56.0
Xinjiang 31.0 34.0 38.0 51.0 60.0 68.0 78.0 84.0 104.0
North China: led producing regions for steam coal in China and produced about 1,299.5 million tons of steam coal in 2013, accounting for 48.4% of China's total production. AAGR was 7.7% during 2005 and 2013.
Northwest China: was the second largest producing region in China in 2013, with a total production of 548 million tons. AAGR was 12.0% during 2005 and 2013. Shaanxi ranked the first among steam coal producing provinces in Northwest China.
East China, Southwest China, Central China and Northeast China all took small percentage in China's total output and ran with very modest growth.
China Steam Coal Production
North China48.4%
Northwest China20.4%
East China11.5%
Southwest China9.0%
Central China7.0%
Northeast China3.6%
China's Steam Coal Production Distribution By Regions in 2013
AAGR of coal production in Shanxi province during 2000 and 2013 was 11.3%. In 2009, Shanxi coal industry was restructured and the mines with capacity below 300 kt/a were all phased out. In 2013, coal output in Shanxi amounted to 960 million tons, account for 26.1% of China's total coal output.
Shanxi Coal Production
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%Output Growthmln T
Shanxi Coal Output and Growth During 2000-2013
During 2003 and 2013, the average annual growth rate of coal production in Shaanxi was 16.1% (Data in 2000-2003 does not include output from Shenhua Group). In recent 10 years, coal production has maintained stable growth, with fluctuation range much lower than Shanxi and Inner Mongolia. Shaanxi coal market was relatively steady with stable transportation capacity and balanced supply and demand. The coal production in Shaanxi province was 493 million tons, taking 13.4% of China's total coal output.
Shaanxi Coal Production
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Shaanxi Coal Output and Growth During 2000-2013
Since 2000, Inner Mongolia coal production has also seen fast growth. AAGR of coal production in Inner Mongolia during 2000 and 2013 has reached 22.6%. Before 2002, the coal production growth was modest but stable. After that, coal production in Inner Mongolia has experienced high-speed growth twice: The first production rocketing happened during 2002 and 2004 when the economy stepped into a new round of gaining; the second production surge happened in 2008 when Inner Mongolia completed the three-year coal resources integration. However, after 2010 coal production in the province has witnessed downside growth due to the economy development recession. In 2013, Inner Mongolia accomplished the coal output of 990 million tons, with a YoY decrease of 6.6%.
Inner Mongolia Coal Production
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Inner Mongolia Coal Output and Growth During 2000-2013
China Coal Industry Investment
Small enterprises
15.7%
Medium enterprises
15.6%
Large enterprises
68.7%
Investing Enterprises Scales Structure in China in 2013
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%Investment Growthbln yuan
China Coal Mining Industry Investment and Growth During 2003-2013
Percentage of losing coal enterprises in China 2009-2013
Total loss of losing coal enterprises in China 2009-2013
Jan.-Nov. 2009 Jan.-Nov. 2010 Jan.-Dec. 2011 Jan.-Dec. 2012 Jan.-Dec. 2013
Number of losing
enterprises1,499 1,229 845 1,290 1,788
Percentage of loss-
incurring enterprises16.27% 13.30% 11.10% 16.56% 22.42%
Jan.-Nov. 2009 Jan.-Nov. 2010 Jan.-Dec. 2011 Jan.-Dec. 2012 Jan.-Dec. 2013
Total loss of losing
enterprises(bln yuan)7.5125 6.3706 7.2848 24.0068 45.6948
YoY growth 233.95% -18.94% 12.20% 156.20% 72.62%
Average loss (mln yuan
per enterprise)5.0 5.2 8.6 18.6 25.6
China Coal Enterprises Profit-making Situation
China Coal Enterprises Production Cost in 2013
Coal Production Cost Summary of China Coal Enterprises in 2013
Company Output (mln T)Production cost
(CNY/t)Transportation mode
Transiting cost
(CNY/t)
FOB price
cost(CNY/t)Requested sales
Shendong Coal Group & Shenhua
producing base in the east of Junggar106.6 160 By rail 141 352
China Coal Pingshuo Group 47.3 216 By rail 145 422
Datong Coal Mine Group 54.4 394 By rail 151 638
Yitai Group 19.3 150 By rail 188 399
Large underground mines in the west
of Inner Mongolia25 160 By truck and rail 290 527
Large open-pit mine in the west of
Inner Mongolia21 180 By truck and rail 552 30-50
Small underground mines in the west
of Inner Mongolia40 190 By truck and rail 560
Small open-pit mine in the west of
Inner Mongolia40 210 By truck and rail 585 30-50
Small mines in Shanxi 360By rail 160 610
By truck 320 800
Small mines in the north of Shaanxi 320By rail 180 580
By truck 350 820
Jan. 23rd, 2013, China's State Council issued "Energy Development Twelfth Five Year Plan". The plan pointed out that China coal capacity will be controlled at 4.1 billion t/a and the mining mechanization degree will be amounted to above 75%. Backward capacity elimination and annexation and reorganization will be accelerated. The number of mining enterprises was no more than 4,000 with average capacity rising to 1 million t/a. According to "Notice about Promoting Backward Capacity Elimination of Coal Industry in the Twelfth Five Year Period", 97.18 million t/a of coal capacity will be phased out and 2,917 small-sized mines will quit the business during the period. Small mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Beijing and Jiangsu will all withdraw from the market. In addition, "Notice about Supporting Coal Industry to Eliminate Backward Capacity" issued by Ministry of Finance showed that central government will provide special funds for less developed areas as rewards on eliminating backward capacity, which may speed up the backward capacity elimination by some degree.
Energy Development Twelfth Five Year Plan
China Coal Production Forecast China Steam Coal Production Forecast
3,680 3,750 4,000
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2013 2014(E) 2015(E) 2020(E)
mln TChina Coal Output 2013-2020(E)
2,596 2,701
2,815
3,270
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China Steam Coal Output 2013-2020(E)
China Coal Price Trend
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Annual average price Increase rate
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Shanxi Average Sales Price of Coal and Increase Rate During 2006-2013
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Datong 5,500 kcal FOR Shuozhou 5,200 kcal FOR
Shanxi Steam Coal Price Trend 2013-2014 CNY/t
CNY/t
China Coal Price Trend
42.5
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Shenmu 6,000 kcal Pithead Yulin 5,500 kcal Pithead
Shaanxi Steam Coal Price Trend CNY/tShaanxi Average Sales Price of Steam Coal and Increase Rate During 2006-2013
China Coal Price Trend
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6.7 12.4 8.2
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Inner Mongolia Average Sales Price of Steam Coal and Increase Rate During 2006-2013
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Baotou 5,000 kcal FOR Erdos 4,500 kcal Pithead
Inner Mongolia Steam Coal Price Trend CNY/t
China Coal Imports
35,900
22,820
25,290
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kt
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China Monthly Import Volume of Coal (2010-2014) 000t
Indonesia11,270.2
45%
Australia6,367.1
25%
Russia2,303.5
9%
North Korea1,293.8
5%
Mongolia1,116.1
4%
Vietnam991.3
4%
Others1,951.9
8%
China's Coal Import Sources Distribution Mar. 2014 000t
China Coal Imports
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China Monthly Coal Import Volume and Growth During 2011-2014
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China Monthly Coal Import Price and Growth During 2011-2014
China Coal Imports
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China Monthly Import Volume of Coal from Indonesia and Australia (2010-2014)
China Coal Production, Sales & Imports
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Production volume Sales volume Import volume
China Monthly Coal Production, Sales and Imports (2010-2014)
Steam Coal Price in Major Port of China
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2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Qinhuangdao Port 5,500kcal/kg Steam Coal Benchmark Price During 2010-2014CNY/t
86 90 81 78127
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638594
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574 554 550
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Datong 6,000kcal/kg coal pithead price QHD Port 5800 kcal/kg coal FOB price
GZ Port 5,500kcal/kg coal Exstockpile price
Steam Coal Price Average Comparison During 2000-2013CNY/t
China Steam Coal Price Comparison
Price Advantage of Imported Coal
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Australia Newcastle Steam Coal Indonesia HBA
Price Advantage of Australia Newcastle Steam Coal and Indonesia HBA over Shanxi 5,800kcal/kg
CNY/t
Price Advantage of Imported Coal
Australia Newcastle Steam Coal Price Advantage over Shanxi 5,800kcal/kg price in QHD Port
FOB price Ocean freight Duty-paying price Exchange rate Conversion price QHD port price Coastal freight CFR pricePrice advantage of
Australia Coal
Unit USD/t USD/t USD/t CNY/USD CNY/t CNY/t CNY/t CNY/t CNY/t
WoW rise 2.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% -6.0% -0.4% -13.5
MoM rise 1.8% -16.0% -0.8% 0.2% -0.6% 0.0% -8.2% -0.5% 0.4
YoY rise -15.0% 0.0% -13.4% -0.5% -13.8% -11.5% -4.2% -11.1% 18.6
16-May-14 74.6 10.5 99.6 6.16 593 575 35 610 16
9-May-14 73.1 10.5 97.8 6.16 582 575 37 612 30
2-May-14 73.5 10.5 98.3 6.16 585 575 40 615 30
25-Apr-14 73.1 10.5 97.8 6.16 582 575 41 616 33
18-Apr-14 73.6 10.5 98.4 6.16 585 575 39 614 29
11-Apr-14 73.3 12.5 100.4 6.15 597 575 38 613 16
4-Apr-14 73.5 12.5 100.6 6.15 599 575 40 615 17
28-Mar-14 74.1 12.5 101.3 6.15 602 570 45 615 13
21-Mar-14 75.1 13.5 103.7 6.15 616 570 52 622 7
14-Mar-14 73.0 13.5 101.2 6.13 600 570 53 623 23
7-Mar-14 75.2 13.0 103.2 6.12 611 570 43 613 2
28-Feb-14 77.2 11.5 103.8 6.12 614 585 36 621 7
21-Feb-14 77.3 11.0 103.3 6.11 611 580 34 614 4
14-Feb-14 77.2 11.0 103.1 6.11 609 555 33 588 -22
7-Feb-14 77.7 11.0 103.8 6.11 613 545 33 578 -35
31-Jan-14 80.0 11.0 106.5 6.11 628 580 33 613 -16
24-Jan-14 81.5 11.5 108.8 6.11 643 585 33 618 -24
17-Jan-14 82.3 11.5 109.7 6.11 648 605 35 640 -8
10-Jan-14 82.2 11.5 109.7 6.11 648 615 39 654 6
3-Jan-14 85.4 14.5 116.9 6.10 689 640 44 684 -5
27-Dec-13 86.3 15.0 118.5 6.12 701 675 50 725 25
Indonesia HBA Advantage over Shanxi 5,800kcal/kg price in QHD Port
FOB price Ocean freight Duty-paying price Exchange rate Conversion price QHD port price Coastal freight CFR price Price advantage of
Australia Coal
Unit USD/t USD/t USD/t CNY/USD CNY/t CNY/t CNY/t CNY/t CNY/t
WoW rise 0.0% -6.7% -0.6% 0.1% -0.5% 0.0% -6.0% -0.4% 0.5
MoM rise -1.6% -17.6% -3.3% 0.2% -3.0% 0.0% -8.2% -0.5% 14.6
YoY rise -13.7% -12.5% -13.6% -0.5% -14.0% -11.5% -4.2% -11.1% 15.3
16-May-14 73.6 7.0 94.3 6.16 562 575 35 610 48
9-May-14 73.6 7.5 94.9 6.16 565 575 37 612 47
2-May-14 73.6 7.5 94.9 6.16 565 575 40 615 50
25-Apr-14 74.8 7.5 96.3 6.16 573 575 41 616 42
18-Apr-14 74.8 7.5 96.3 6.16 573 575 39 614 41
11-Apr-14 74.8 8.5 97.5 6.15 580 575 38 613 33
4-Apr-14 74.8 8.5 97.5 6.15 580 575 40 615 35
28-Mar-14 77.0 8.5 100.0 6.15 594 570 45 615 21
21-Mar-14 77.0 9.0 100.6 6.15 598 570 52 622 25
14-Mar-14 77.0 9.0 100.6 6.13 597 570 53 623 26
7-Mar-14 77.0 8.5 100.0 6.12 592 570 43 613 20
28-Feb-14 80.4 7.5 102.9 6.12 609 585 36 621 12
21-Feb-14 80.4 7.5 102.9 6.11 608 580 34 614 6
14-Feb-14 80.4 7.5 102.9 6.11 608 555 33 588 -20
7-Feb-14 80.4 8.0 103.5 6.11 611 545 33 578 -33
31-Jan-14 81.9 8.0 105.2 6.11 621 580 33 613 -8
24-Jan-14 81.9 8.0 105.2 6.11 621 585 33 618 -3
17-Jan-14 81.9 8.0 105.2 6.11 621 605 35 640 19
10-Jan-14 81.9 8.0 105.2 6.11 621 615 39 654 32
3-Jan-14 81.9 9.0 106.4 6.10 627 640 44 684 57
27-Dec-13 80.3 9.5 105.1 6.12 621 675 50 725 104
Price Advantage of Imported Coal
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North China East China Central China
Southern China Northeast China Northwest China
China Monthly Coal Consumption of China Coal-fired Plants by Regions (2012-2014)
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Thermal power generation (bln kWh)
Total power generation (bln kWh)
China Monthly Thermal Power & Total Power Generation Comparison (2012-2014)
bln kWh
China Coal-fired Enterprises Operation Status
