Chesapeake Bay Observing System

CBOS PR Mesohaline Proposal Briefing To

Tidal Monitoring Assessment Workgroup (TMAW)

Chesapeake Bay Program

Chesapeake Bay Observing System

Dr. Michael KoterbaChair, CBOS Affiliate Members

Chesapeake Bay Observing System

• Provide an overview of CBOS, of the CBOS proposal, and a vision of their potential to address – CBP Water-Quality Assessment Criteria Monitoring in open

water, deep water, and deep channel Designated Use Areas of the Chesapeake Bay for adequate regulatory monitoring

– TMAW Forecasts, Summaries, and Report Card

• Solicit comments, suggestions, and funding from the CBP to implement proposal.

Purpose

CBOS: One of five subregional associations of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association...with current focus on the CB Mainstem and Estuaries

(MACOORA): One of the 11 RAs in the National Federation of Regional Associations

(NFRA): Organized under the nation’s Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS, Ocean.US)

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What and Where is CBOS ?

CBOS Full Members:Executive DirectorElizabeth Smith, Res. Assist. Prof., Ctr for Coastal Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA

StateBruce Michaels, Coordinator, Tidewater Ecosyst. Assess, MD Dept. of Natural Resources, Annapolis, MD

Regional

Peter Tango, Monitoring Coordinator, Chesapeake Bay Program, Solomon, MD

Industry and Non-GovernmentalDavid White, Chief of Operations, Port of Hampton Roads Maritime Association, Norfolk, VA(Janelle Robbins, Staff Scientist), Program Coordinator, Chesapeake Bay Waterkeepers Alliance, Annapolis, MDHank Lobe, Sales and Marketing Director, Government Systems, Teledyne-RDI, Washington DCSusan Shingledecker, Program Manager, Marine Env.&Safety, Boat.US Foundation, Annapolis, MDJay Titlow, Senior Meteorologist, Weatherflow, Inc., Poquoson, VA(Kevin Sellner, Director), Manager, Community Modeling Program, Chesapeake Research Consortium, , MD

AcademicBill Boicourt, Prof., Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland, Ctr., Environ. Sci., Cambridge, MDLarry Atkinson, Eminent Prof., Center for Coastal Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VACarl Friedrichs, Prof., Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William and Mary College, Gloucester, VAEmil Patruncio, Cmdr., U S Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD 21403

CBOS Affiliate Members:Michael Koterba, Chair, Affiliate Members, U S Geological Survey, Baltimore, MDDouglas Wilson, Manager, Observational Programs, NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, Annapolis, MDRobert Bassett, Requirements Coordinator, NOAA CO-OPS, Silver Spring, MDWilliam Reay, Dir., Chesapeake Bay Virginia NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve, Gloucester, VA Anthony Siebers, Meteorologist In Charge, NOAA National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA

Who is CBOS?... Current Organization

What are the goals of CBOS ?IOOS goals (from the bottom up)

• More effectively mitigate the damaging effects of natural hazards;

• Improve prediction of weather as well as climate change and variability and their impact on coastal communities;

• Improve safety and efficiency of marine operations;

• Improve national and homeland security;

• Reduce public health risks;

• More effectively protect and restore healthy coastal marine ecosystems; • Sustain use of marine resources.

“User-driven”, integrated , and sustainable system of observations and data telemetry, data management and communications (DMAC), and data analysis and modeling that routinely, reliably, and continuously provides data and information required to meet user needs...

U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy:

High quality, accessible information is critical to making wise decisions about ocean and coastal resources and their uses to guarantee sustainable social, economic, and environmental benefits from the sea.”

What is the purpose of CBOS ?Answer: IOOS purpose (from the bottom up)

• Normal spring flow sets stage for moderate Bay conditions...

• Mean Anoxic Volume (DO 2 mg/L) 1.4 0.5 KM3, moderate relative to previous summers

• Little to no recovery in SAV following dramatic losses in 2006

• Average HAB conditions (duration and extent) expected in Potomac River

...unless notable changes occur in average daily runoff, sediment or nutrient loads, water temperatures, salinity, or winds......which largely are determined by the type, frequency, timing, duration, intensity, and track of storms... or the general lack thereof of any major storms (drought)......in which case all the initial forecasts are unlikely to hold, and

...updated forecasts are not readily possible due to the lack of near-real time data in open, deep water, and deep channel segments of bay and estuaries ... nor the hydrodynamic models that can exploit that data.

• Average freshwater inflow was composed of extremes in low and high flow events...

• Difficult year for habitat health, with considerable spatial variability, ...

• Poor water clarity throughout Bay, with reasons not very well understood, ...

• Dramatic reduction in Bay grasses, possibly as a result of high water temperatures in late 2005, dry spring conditions, followed by poor water clarity from single summer storm event, ...

• Very poor benthic community condition, possibly as a result of low DO and high suspended particle concentrations, ...

• A helping hand from remnants of Ernesto (Hurricane-Tropical Storm-Nor’easter), which appeared to end HAB, reduce thermal stress on Bay grasses, reduce low DO conditions, ...

...historical interpretations, as well as predictions, difficult for lack the near-real time data that reflect duration and intensity of storm impacts or lack thereof through time for open water, deep water, and deep channel segments of bay and estuaries...and the model capabilities to exploit that data.

As of 2007...

• Normal spring flow sets stage for moderate Bay conditions...

• Mean Anoxic Volume (DO 2 mg/L) 1.4 0.5 KM3, moderate relative to previous summers

• Little to moderate increase in SAV expected

• Below to average HAB conditions (duration and extent) expected throughout the Bay

• Notable deviations from these forecasts could result from the occurrence or lack thereof of major extratropical or tropical storms, and depend on their timing, duration, intensity, and track. Thus, forecasts will be updated on weekly or if needs be storm by storm basis throughout the spring , summer, and fall.

• Difficult year for Bay health, with little spatial variability as indicated by modeled QW and Biotic conditions verified by an array of open water, deep water, and deep channel observations.

• Poor water clarity, reductions in Bay grasses, and poor benthic community conditions occurred throughout the Bay.

• Two early Nor’easters were followed by a prolonged summer drought with elevated water temperatures.

• Modeled results validated with open water deep water and deep channel observations indicate:Explanation: Nor’easters resulted in large freshwater, nutrient, and sediment inflows throughout the Bay. Bay clarity declined, initially from suspended sediment, and then large HABs, as water temperatures rose. Bay grass declines were most severe in areas with prolonged loss of clarity due to both sediment and HAB.

A prolonged period of stratification, rising water temperatures, and ultimately high BOD associated with bloom die-off led to extended anoxic volumes throughout the Bay main stem and most estuaries. All of the above directly correlate with the reductions in benthic organisms.

As of 2011-2012

2012

2011

Courtesy Ming Li UMCES HPL

Buoyancy plume moves along western shore and exits as boundary current, exporting dissolved and particulate organic materials from land to ocean.

Surface distributions of salinity and residual currents


Predictions of currents at CBOS mid-Bay station

2.4 m

19.4 m

Wind-driven currents are significantly larger than gravitational circulation and comparable to tidal currents.


Prediction for tidal elevations at tidal gauge stations

RMS error < 5 cm, Relative error < 5%, Correlation > 0.95, Skill > 0.95.


Comparison of salinity time series at CBP monitoring stations

Model predictive skill for salinity is 0.85 (Li et al., 2005, JGR).

Surface Bottom

Model: lines

Data: dots


Red--bottom

Blue--top

Wind-induced destratification and re-stratification

Episodic wind-induced mixing and restratification events are reminiscent of spring-neap tidal cycle. How does wind mixing affect the Bay?


Simulating storm surges during Hurricane Isabel

Mean RMS error is 0.13 m and model skill for predicting storm surges is 0.96.

Before

During

After

Storm-induced destratification and restratification

Hurricane-induced winds erased stratification but horizontal density/pressure gradient drove post-storm restratification and return to two-layer flows.


Embedding a six-compartment biogeochemical model

Simple parameterization of optics and benthic processes

(1) Light attenuation coefficientestimated from optical measurements.

(2) Nutrient re-mineralization rate temperature-dependent.

(3) De-nitrification rate linearlyproportional to ambient nutrient concentration.


Nutrient transport by plume and development of spring (1997) bloom

NO3 (Feb) NO3 (Apr) Phytoplankton (Mar)


(1) Summer plankton production supported by regenerated nutrients. (2) Warm temperature stimulates bacteria production and speeds up the re-mineralization of organic particles into ammonium.

NO3

NH4

Phytoplankton

Zooplankton

Along-channel distributions in summer (1997)


Enhanced phytoplankton production driven by episodic winds


Annual time series of integrated productivity and Chl-a

Good agreement between model predictions and observations. Regression coefficient and model predictive skill lie between (0.5-0.9) (Li et al, submitted).

Whole Bay

Lower Bay

Mid-Bay

Upper Bay


Comparison of spring bloom between high and normal runoff years

1996 (high) 1997 (normal)

During high runoff years, spring bloom extends towards lower bay.Courtesy Ming Li UMCES HPL

Where to begin? ...with the proposal now up for your review...

Providing review comments...before June 13th

Participating in the MASC review discussion on June 13th

Purpose of proposed study:

Characterize vertical profile temporal (hourly) variability in CBP

Assessment Criteria (DO, Clarity (Turbidity), Chlorophyll a

(Fluorescence)), and Temperature and Salinity at Fixed Stations

Characterize temporal variability in meteorological and hydro-

dynamic forcings co-located with above.

Analyze data to determine temporal relations among QW and

above forcings.

Propose open water, deep water, and deep channel monitoring

design consistent with CBP (adequate) monitoring approach

with eye toward 2010 regulatory requirements (and modeling).

Mesohaline,

Potomac River

Study Location and Observations

CBOS-CBP Partners Obtain, Disseminate, and Analyze Data

Meteorological data Wind speed and direction, air temperature, and barometric pressure (16), WeatherFlow et al

High resolution windfield Nowcasts WeatherFlow

Solar radiation NOAA (CBIBs)

Hydrodynamic data Freshwater stream flow (3-4) USGS

Water levels (3 or possibly more) USGS, NOAA

Current speed, direction (2-4, 2 multiple depths) NOAA, UMCES-HPL Waves height, period, direction (2) NOAA, UMCES-HPL

Water-quality data Temperature (4, 2 profile) NOAA DNR, UMCES

Clarity-Turbidity (2 profiles) NOAA DNR

Dissolved oxygen (2 profiles) NOAA DNR

pH (2 profiles) NOAA DNR

Chlorophyll a (2 profiles) NOAA DNR

Salinity (Conductivity) NOAA DNR UMCES

Analysis of Data CBP, Gary Shenk and staff have lead

Dissemination of Data: At least hourly by CBOS Opendap server and Netcdf files, according to IOOS DMAC and CBP protocols

Period of Data Collection: Mar-April to Oct-Nov

FY07 Budget

Partner Service in Kind Requested

WeatherFlow $ 25K $ 20KMD-DNR $ 75K $ 18K

NOAA NCBO $130K ---

UMCES HPL $ 45K $ 20KCBOS $ 20K $ 24Kw peer-reviewed publication $ 22KTotals $295K $104K

POTOMAC River InundationPOTOMAC River Inundation

Isabel

The intersection of Union and King streets in Old Town Alexandria, VA

POTOMAC RIVER Storm-Surge INUNDATION PROJECTSPrincipals-Products

NWS Forecasting and predictions with

WeatherFlow, Inc. VIMS (ADCIRC) and UMCES-HPL (ROMS) Hydrodynamic Modeling Noblis, Inc. Inundation visualization

CBOS Observational network data for model assimilation and validation, and visualization validation

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/sspp/forecasting.html

Colonial Beach

Quantico/Aquia

Charles County

St. Mary’s County

Greater NCR

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MWCOG Flooding Inundation Prediction System (FIPS)

Potential Approximate Locations (may vary)Development within these areas to be coordinated

Base Program•Refine model spatial grid•Include tributaries runoff•Decrease system run time•Compatible with EM GIS•Sustain water level network•Gages for on-land validation•Validate storm events•Implement working prototype with NOAA NWS•Propose future system for sustained operations

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Please provide comments, suggestions,... wrt to proposal to:

Mike Koterba (at both [email protected] and [email protected]) by EOB Monday June 11th.

Please consider attending CBP MASC meeting on Wednesday June 13th for discussion of CBOS proposal.

Response? Response?

Chesapeake Bay Observing System

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