Change 4: Time Scales

Climate change = long-term problem that needs adaptation by stakeholders now

How do these relate to the time horizons of different actors?

How can long-term considerations be brought into short-term concerns and action?

Theory of change

Why? Adaptive capacity will be limited if long-term changes are not considered

How? Long-term considerations should be addressed through short-term incentives of relevance and interest to stakeholders for their engagement

Example of a tool to enrich existing projects through social learning processes and make them more effective by connecting short-term relevance to longer term understanding of climate change and ability to adapt

Time horizons evaluation tool– Activities (sequenced): Commission research into time

horizons building on state of the art (risk management, psychology, behavioural economics)

– Specific scale / who is targeted: CCAFS site + sub-national/hub level (coffee under pressure) + national (scenarios)

– Where (optional): Makueni, Nyando– Who plays what role: Topic experts, project organizers,

stakeholders– Time needed to do it: 6 person/months research, 1-3

person/months testing + travel– Funding ballpark: 100K USD– Social differentiation: Target different groups

Incentives framework– Activities (sequenced): Commission research building into

incentives based on state of the art (psych, eco, risk + development social science)

– Specific scale / who is targeted: Retro-apply to scenarios, coffee under pressure, on-going risk management projects

– Where (optional): CCAFS target regions– Who plays what role: Topic experts, project organizers,

stakeholders– Time needed to do it: 3 person/months research, 1-3

person/months testing + research– Funding ballpark: 70K USD– Social differentiation: Target different groups

Evaluating change– Activities (sequenced): Applying the tool to evaluate

impacts– Specific scale / who is targeted: Previously involved

projects– Where (optional): CCAFS target regions– Who plays what role: Topic experts, project

organizers, stakeholders– Time needed to do it: 6 person/months research

person/months testing + research– Funding ballpark: 60K USD– Social differentiation: Target different groups