Cepsa · 2020. 11. 20. · 3Q vs 2Q 2020 Strong improvement in both key operating and financial...
Transcript of Cepsa · 2020. 11. 20. · 3Q vs 2Q 2020 Strong improvement in both key operating and financial...
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Cepsa3Q 2020 ResultsNovember 20th, 2020
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Today’s presenters
Salvador Bonacasa
CFO
Gonzalo Sáenz
Head of Finance
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Compañía Española de Petróleos, S.A. (the “Company”) solely for information purposes and may contain forward-looking statements and information relating
to the Company or its subsidiaries and joint venture companies (together, the “Group”).
Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and may be identified by words such as “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “estimates”, “will”, “may”, “continues”,
“should” and similar expressions. These forward-looking statements reflect, at the time made, the Company’s beliefs, intentions and current expectations concerning, among other things, the
Company’s or the Group’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth and strategies. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies,
outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends;
developments of the Company’s or any other member of the Group’s markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of the Company’s or any other member of the Group’s
competitors. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Forward-looking
statements are not guarantees of future performance and such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of operations, financial condition and
liquidity of the Company and its affiliates or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this document or the presentation by such forward-looking statements. No
representation is made that any of these forward-looking statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast result will be achieved. Undue influence should not be placed on any forward-
looking statement. No statement in this presentation is intended to be nor may be construed as a profit forecast.
All information in this presentation is subject to updating, revision, verification, correction, completion, amendment and may change materially and without notice. The information contained in this
presentation should be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the time and the presentation does not purport to be comprehensive and has not been independently verified.
Except as required by law, the Company does not assume any obligation to publicly update the information contained herein to reflect material developments which may occur after the date
hereof, including changes in its business, business development strategy or any other unexpected circumstance.
Certain financial and statistical information contained in this presentation is subject to rounding adjustments. Accordingly, any discrepancies between the totals and the sums of the amounts listed are
due to rounding. The information included in this presentation has not been subject to a financial audit and includes alternative performance measures (“APMs”), which have not been prepared in
accordance with IFRS, and which should be viewed as complementary to, rather than a substitute for, IFRS financial information. Such APMs are non-IFRS financial measures and have not been
audited or reviewed, and are not recognised measures of financial performance or liquidity under IFRS but are used by management to monitor the underlying performance of the business,
operations and financial condition of the Group.
This document may contain summarized, non-audited or non-IFRS financial information. The information contained herein should be considered in conjunction with other public information regarding
the Company that is available.
This presentation is for the exclusive use of the recipient and shall not be copied, reproduced or distributed (in whole or in part) or disclosed by recipients to any other person nor should any other
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herein and any information provided at the presentation shall form the basis of any investment activity or any offer or commitment whatsoever.
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Highlights & Outlook
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3Q 2020 highlightsResults still affected by global crisis although improved performance vs 2Q
• CCS EBITDA of €277 M in 3Q (€910 M YTD), +54% vs 2Q 2020, reflecting thecompany’s ability to generate positive results in an extremely challengingmarket environment
• Cash flow from operations of €224 M during the quarter (€663 M YTD),registering a strong rebound vs 2Q of +159%
• €390 M in Opex and Capex savings captured as of September, from totaltargeted of €500 M
• Strong balance sheet and liquidity position in excess of €4.6 Bn. Long-dateddebt maturity profile of 4.2 years
Contingency
Plan
Financial
Performance
• Operations continued regularly, with all key assets and plants producingnormally
• Signs of recovery, especially in the Upstream and Marketing businesses
• Improved Marketing volumes due to the easing of lockdown measuresand the summer holiday season
• Chemical business continued to outperform, proving to be resilient in themost adverse scenarios
Covid-19
impact
• Acquisition of a 40% stake in two leading Moroccan asphalts companies
• €500M, long 5-yrs bond issue successfully executed in JulyCorporate
events
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Fuel demand (Spain)YoY variation
61.9 63.3
50.3
29.2
43.0
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20
5.7
3.8
4.8
2.2
0.5
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20
Brent1
$/bbl
Cepsa refining margin (VAR) 1
$/bbl
1.11 1.111.10 1.10
1.17
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20
Exchange rate1
$/€
Source: Cepsa, CLH. 1. Average figures of each quarter
-28%
-61%
-45%
-20%
-9% -12%-7%
March April May June July August Sept
Market environmentChallenging market environment continued during 3Q, with some signs of recovery in market
volumes
Strong market
recovery
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3Q vs 2Q 2020Strong improvement in both key operating and financial metrics
Key Operating metrics 3Q 2020 2Q 2020 Δ 3Q/2Q
Realized crude price ($/bbl) 42.7 27.8 +53%
Refining throughput (Mt) 4.9 4.4 +12%
Refining utilization 80% 74% +9%
Marketing product sales (Mt) 3.8 3.0 +30%
Chemical product sales (kt) 693 691 +0%
Source: Cepsa 1. Before working capital variation. 2. Cash plus available committed facilities
Key Financial metrics 3Q 2020 2Q 2020 Δ 3Q/2Q
CCS EBITDA 277 180 +54%
CCS Net Income 39 (93) +142%
Cash Flow from operations1 224 86 +159%
Net Debt 2,858 3,131 (9%)
Total Liquidity2 4,617 4,524 +2%
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• Crude prices have stabilized in the 40
to 45 $/bbl range
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Covid-19 impact on businessUpstream
• Lower production mainly due to OPEC
quota restrictions
Realized oil price
40.9 $/bbl
WI Production
76.9 kbopd
EBITDA
337M€
YTD Figures
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• Strategic location, operational flexibility
and high degree of integration provides
greater optionality to optimize margins
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• European refining margins continue
to be under pressure
Covid-19 impact on businessRefining
Utilization Rate
81 %
Throughout
14.7 Mt
EBITDA
34 M€
YTD Figures
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• Increased volumes vs 2Q due to end of
mobility restrictions and summer holiday
season
• Strong performance of Wholesales
and Asphalts on improved margins
and increased exports
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Covid-19 impact on businessMarketing
Product Sales
11.1 Mt
Service Stations
1,784
EBITDA
307 M€
YTD Figures
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Covid-19 impact on businessChemicals
• Global leadership and resilient nature
have proven as a competitive
advantage in current market context
• Solid performance of LAB segment
• Healthy margins
Product Sales
2.1 Mt
LAB Sales
528 Kt
EBITDA
256 M€
YTD Figures
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Contingency planWell under way, with 78% of targeted savings already captured
• New committed banking facilities for a total of €1.1 Bn since March 2020
• Two bond issues totaling €1.0 Bn, executed in February and July
• Strengthen liquidity of €4.6 Bn and increased average debt maturity of 4.2 yrs
Financial
initiatives
• €500 M in targeted opex and capex savings
• €390 M captured as of September (78%)
• Strict Working Capital management
• Hedging of energy costs at historical low levels
Operational
initiatives€390 M
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• Oil prices expected tostabilize with news ofadvances on Covid-19vaccine
• Production expected toremain stable as OPECrestrictions are extendeduntil year-end
• Refining margins toremain under pressuredue to subdued demandfollowing restrictions tofight second wave of
infections in Europe
• Utilization expected toremain at similar levels inthe short-term
• Certain decrease involumes compared toprevious months due tonew restrictions imposedderived from the second
wave of Covid-19infections
• Margins expected toremain healthy
• Volumes, especially in LAB(detergents), expected toremain strong
• Expected stable to higher
margins in the near term
Short term outlookGradual recovery, although continued macro volatility
Upstream Refining Marketing Chemicals
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9M 2020 Results
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Key Operational KPIs 9M 2020 9M 2019 Δ 20/19
WI Upstream Production (kbopd) 76.9 93.5 (18%)
Realized Crude Oil Price ($/b) 40.9 64.3 (36%)
Upstream Opex ($/bbl) 10.0 9.9 1%
Cepsa refining margin – VAR ($/bbl) 2.6 4.5 (42%)
Utilization rate refineries (%) 81% 90% (10%)
Marketing Product Sales (Mt) 11.1 15.9 (30%)
Chemicals Product Sales (Mt) 2.1 2.2 (5%)
Source: Cepsa
Operations have continued regularlyOperational flexibility and strong integration mitigates the impact of
lower volumes and prices
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Key financial metrics (€M) 9M 2020 9M 2019 Δ 20/19
Net Income 31 424 (93%)
Cash Flow from operations before WC 663 1,294 (49%)
Accounting Capex 464 590 (21%)
Results marked by global crisis due to Covid-19Challenging market environment persists, with pressure on refining
margins and subdued demand
Source: Cepsa 1. Clean Current Cost of Supply, excluding non-recurring items. 17
EBITDA by Business (€M)1 9M 2020 9M 2019 Δ 20/19
Upstream 337 712 (53)%
Refining 34 347 (90)%
Marketing 307 342 (10)%
Chemicals 256 186 38%
Corporation (25) (36) (31)%
Group EBITDA 910 1,551 (41)%
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Cash Flow Statement (€M) 9M 2020 9M 2019 Δ 20/19
Clean CCS EBITDA 910 1,551 (41)%
Income tax paid (222) (284) (22)%
Others1 (25) 28 (189%)
Cash flow from operations before WC 663 1,294 (49)%
Changes in working capital (18) 80 (122%)
Cash flow from operations 645 1,374 (53)%
Capex (590) (644) (8%)
Growth (419) (502) (17%)
Maintenance (178) (217) (18%)
Other cash flow from investments 7 75 (91%)
Leasing and interest payments (185) (180) 3%
Free cash flow before dividends (129) 550 (123%)
Source: Cepsa 1. Includes dividends from associates and other adjustments
Cash flow generationPositive Free Cash Flow before discretionary growth capex, despite 50%
decrease in CF from operations
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Capital Structure (€ M) 9M 2020 9M 2019 FY 2019
Non-current bank borrowings 2,377 2,180 2,661
Current bank borrowings 651 630 146
Bonds 1,500 500 500
Cash (1,670) (508) (561)
Net debt excluding IFRS16 liabilities 2,858 2,802 2,746
IFRS16 liabilities 661 786 761
Net debt including IFRS16 liabilities 3,519 3,588 3,507
Net debt to LTM CCS EBITDA1 2.2x 1.4x 1.4x
Liquidity2 4,617 3,055 3,100
Avg. maturity of drawn debt (yrs) 4.2 4.3 4.8
Source: Cepsa 1. Excluding IFRS16. 2. Cash plus available committed facilities
Strong balance sheet and liquidityLiquidity position of €4.6 Bn covering maturities up to September 2025
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Cash 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 &
onwards
Gross Debt Bonds Available Committed
Figures in €M
Debt avg maturity
4.2 Years
Cash position
€1,671 M
Liquidity1
€4.6 Bn
Debt maturity profileLong-dated average maturity of 4.2 years with no significant debt maturities up to 2024
Source: Cepsa 1. Cash plus available committed facilities
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Agency
Stable Outlook
Last review
BBB-
LT Rating
Baa3 Negative Outlook
Outlook
June 2020
April 2020
BBB- Stable Outlook April 2020
• Conservative financial policies consistent with Investment Grade credit profile
• Investment Grade credit ratings are a key priority for both the Company and its shareholders
Ratings summaryAll three agencies affirmed Cepsa Investment Grade ratings post-Covid
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Thank you