Alpek 3Q19 Earnings Presentation · 2012 2013 2014 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 3Q 324 1Q 2Q 3Q 260 4Q 276...
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1 Earnings Presentation 3 rd Quarter 2019
Transcript of Alpek 3Q19 Earnings Presentation · 2012 2013 2014 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 3Q 324 1Q 2Q 3Q 260 4Q 276...
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Earnings Presentation
3rd Quarter 2019
This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking statements”. By their
nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events
and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek,
S.A.B. de C.V. and its subsidiaries may differ from the results expressed in, or implied by the
forward-looking statements set out herein, possibly to a material degree.
Disclaimer
3Q19 Highlights
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3Q19 EBITDA results show strong quarter-on-quarter improvement
2019 YTD Comparable EBITDA on track to meet 2019 Guidance
Altamira Cogeneration plant obtained all permits for commercial operations in September
• Currently operating & serving customers / Sale expected to be finalized before year-end
Issued 10-Year US$500M bond at 4.25% coupon
• Lowest spread in Alpek’s history / Debt maturity improved from 2.7 to 4.9 years
Joined The Recycling Partnership to increase PET circular economy efforts & awareness
3Q
Relevant References: Crude OilStrong fluctuations due to US-China trade war & Saudi refinery attack
Brent Crude Oil Price
53
44
54
71
64
20
40
100
60
80
120
Guidance68
US$/Bbl
Avg.99
2014 2015 2016 2017 20192018
4Source: Bloomberg
Relevant References: ParaxyleneSlow-down in Px price drop during 3Q19 & stable prices since August
5
1,7081,635 1,641
1,382
992
829898 878 900
989924 924
9771,056 1,100
1,258 1,2821,165
1,077955
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2Q
US$/Ton
20142011 1Q20152012 2013 4Q3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: IHS Markit
NA Px Contract Price
Only US$55/ton
drop throughout
3Q19
Relevant References: Integrated PET MarginsMargins remained above both Guidance (US$300/ton) & 1Q19 levels
6
200
74 69 69 62 58 71 64 63 60 72 80 81 104133 135 117 110
155 140
193
174 186 208165 153
189148 147
180204 184 202
238
346
242
215 214
214
164
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2Q
263
US$/Ton
2015
211
2012 2013 2014 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q3Q 4Q
324
3Q1Q 2Q
260
4Q
276
1Q
342
2Q
PET
PTA
393
248
333
255
2011
227 212 210240
277 284
478
377
304
370
China
2016 2017 2018 2019
Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET)
2018 results benefitted
from extraordinary
margins
Source: ICIS, PCI, CCFGroup
Sep. posted
US$260/ton
Relevant References: Propylene & PolypropyleneSlight margin reduction but still above Guidance (21cpp)
7Source: IHS Markit
NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PGP to PP)
12 1213
15
24
27
1920
2223 23
22 2221
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
1713 15
cpp
11 12 14 16 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2018 2019
76
60
6971
39
34
45
53 52
60
51
38 37 38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
13 4Q15 1Q12
cpp
17 2Q11 14 16 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2018 2019
EBITDA3Q19 with continued operational strength & lower inventory losses
8
181239
274
149 140 161194
170
234
181
2Q181Q18 1Q19
369
218
148
3Q18 4Q18
189
2Q19
213
3Q19
Comparable EBITDA
ReportedEBITDA
Comparable EBITDA(exc. RMCF)1
+13%
694
495
622
550
YTD19YTD18
Badwill
PQS
Alpek EBITDA (US$M)
2018 2019
(1) Raw Material Carry-Forward
220
EBITDA Breakdown2019 YTD Comparable EBITDA currently exceeding Guidance
9
53
26
12
65
18
65
16
60
163
3
OthersP&C
231
PolyesterYTD19G YTD19
Comparable
(w. RMCF)1
136
RMCF1 YTD19
Comparable
Inventories
3
Others
129
P&C
Polyester
190
YTD19
Reported
144
213
194Others
137
47
184
65
185
63
175
Others
351
Inventories
7
RMCF1
29550
388
YTD19
Comparable
495
YTD19G Polyester
541
615
YTD19
Reported
P&C Others
9
P&C
Polyester
305
417
YTD19
Comparable
(w. RMCF)1
Others
EBITDA
3Q19 vs.
3Q19G(US$M)
EBITDA
YTD19 vs.
YTD19G(US$M)
(1) Raw Material Carry-Forward
LeverageDebt reduction offset by lower LTM EBITDA as ‘18 margins phased out
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Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times)
407
564
834
1,0631,022
944
864
1Q192Q181Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2Q19 3Q19
3.1
2.9
1.9
1.7
2.2 2.22.4
3Q18 1Q191Q18 2Q18 2Q194Q18 3Q19
1,270
1,637 1,603
1,832
2,2002,084
2,036
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 3Q191Q19 2Q19
Debt ProfileIssued 10-Year US$500M bond improving debt maturity to 4.9 years
11
309
96
309 300250
500
650
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2019
US$M
2029Cash 2020 20242021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2027 2028
691
Existing
Bonds
(1) A small portion of debt is denominated in ARS
(2) Excludes leases, documents and accrued interests
Consolidated Debt Profile (Sep. 2019)
301 337
918
194213
168
200
ReportedEBITDA
3Q19
Net Extraordinary Items
3619
Comparable EBITDA
4Q19 EBITDA (To Meet
Guidance)
Cogen Sale (Estimate)
2019Guidance
1H19
495
55 550
GuidanceYTD Comparable EBITDA on track to meet Guidance
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Alpek Guidance & Progress Towards
US$63M
inventory
losses
US$615M
including RMCF1
(1) Raw Material Carry-Forward
For Additional [email protected] / +52 (818) 748-1146
• 7 Years at Alfa/Alpek
• Previously held roles in Human Resources, Talent & Culture at Alfa and Axtel
• BS in International Relations from ITESM
Alejandra
Bustamante
IR Manager
• 8 Years at Alfa/Alpek
• Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at
Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group
• BS in Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business
Alejandro
Elizondo
IRO
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