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Center of Excellence
COMPLEX EMERGENCIESCOMPLEX EMERGENCIES
Characteristics / Realities / ThreatsCharacteristics / Realities / Threats
Col (Ret) Peter LeentjesCenter of Excellence inDisaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance
Center of Excellence
COMPLEX EMERGENCIES
Describe current modelsDescribe current models Establish the Establish the
EnvironmentEnvironment Discuss Features & Discuss Features &
ProcessProcess ThreatsThreats
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Twelve Top Indicators
Mounting Demographic PressuresMounting Demographic Pressures Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally
Displaced Persons creating Complex Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian EmergenciesHumanitarian Emergencies
Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group ParanoiaGrievance or Group Paranoia
Chronic and sustained Human FlightChronic and sustained Human Flight Uneven Economic Development along Group Uneven Economic Development along Group
LinesLines Sharp or Severe Economic DeclineSharp or Severe Economic DeclinePauline Baker & Angeli Weller
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Twelve Top Indicators (Cont’d)
Criminalization and/or Delegitimizing of the StateCriminalization and/or Delegitimizing of the State Progressive Deterioration of Public servicesProgressive Deterioration of Public services Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of
Law and Widespread Violation of Human RightsLaw and Widespread Violation of Human Rights Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a
State”State” Rise of fictionalized ÉlitesRise of fictionalized Élites Intervention of Other States or External Political Intervention of Other States or External Political
ActorsActors
Pauline Baker & Angeli Weller
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Definition
“A complex emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the
political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’
capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated multi-sectoral international response”
IASC of the United Nations
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ModernComplex Emergencies
DisasterResponse
HumanitarianAssistance
PeaceOperations
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DisasterResponse
HumanitarianAssistance
PeaceOperations
Range of Military Activity
Support
Combat
Security ComplianceOperations
Support Security
ModernComplex Emergencies
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DisasterResponse
HumanitarianAssistance
PeaceOperations
Range of Civilian Activity
Support
CM
Humanitar
ianMitig
ation
ModernComplex Emergencies
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ModernComplex Emergencies
DisasterManagement
HumanitarianAssistance
PeaceOperations
Civil - Military Coordination
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Notion of State Security
Shift from military security to human security Shift from military security to human security Individual rights are predominateIndividual rights are predominate State is shrinking - smaller governments, State is shrinking - smaller governments,
larger larger demands Threats to national and trans-national securityThreats to national and trans-national security National security is now linked to regional National security is now linked to regional
security - trans-border threatssecurity - trans-border threats Globalization & privatization are reducing Globalization & privatization are reducing
nation’s reach and ability to control many nation’s reach and ability to control many aspects impacting on the nationaspects impacting on the nation
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ECONOMIC SHIFT
Changing expectations – Changing expectations – individual basedindividual based
Emboldened populationsEmboldened populations Increased economic disparityIncreased economic disparity Increased poverty – challenge to Increased poverty – challenge to
stabilitystability Economic diversion of resourcesEconomic diversion of resources
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SHIFT FROM INTERSTATE TO INTRASTATE CONFLICT
Incidence of violence within states Incidence of violence within states increasingincreasing
Compromises the prosperity / Compromises the prosperity / stability / survival of the statestability / survival of the state
Internal conflict provides the Internal conflict provides the breeding ground for Terrorism and breeding ground for Terrorism and Infectious DiseaseInfectious Disease
Internal conflict cannot be Internal conflict cannot be contained within borderscontained within borders
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SOVEREIGNTY
No longer exclusive domain of the No longer exclusive domain of the statestate
State legitimacy is erodingState legitimacy is eroding Human rightsHuman rights Globalization of resource movementGlobalization of resource movement International accordsInternational accords Pluralism – ethnicityPluralism – ethnicity Movement of populationsMovement of populations
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Disrespect for Humanitarian Norms Civilian Casualties are not incidental but the Civilian Casualties are not incidental but the
outcome of political strategiesoutcome of political strategies Civilians targets have become the objectiveCivilians targets have become the objective 90% of Casualties are civilian90% of Casualties are civilian The full brutality of conflict is focused on the civilian communityThe full brutality of conflict is focused on the civilian community
Loss of immunity for humanitarian workersLoss of immunity for humanitarian workers formerly could work without threat/fearformerly could work without threat/fear today they are often targetstoday they are often targets aid is politicizedaid is politicized NGOs, ICRC/MSF have all sufferedNGOs, ICRC/MSF have all suffered
Impact on the ability of the humanitarian Impact on the ability of the humanitarian agencies to deliver aidagencies to deliver aid
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Use of Humanitarian Action to Substitute for Political Action
Humanitarian action is being used Humanitarian action is being used as a stopgap which may make the as a stopgap which may make the situation worse not bettersituation worse not better
Humanitarian work is undermined Humanitarian work is undermined in the absence of measures in the absence of measures focused on resolving the focused on resolving the underlying causes of sufferingunderlying causes of suffering
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Chaotic Conditions in Intra-State Conflict
More intractable conflicts exist More intractable conflicts exist - difficult to resolve- difficult to resolve
Brutality is on the increaseBrutality is on the increase Landmines are found in dozens Landmines are found in dozens
of countries - 100 million of countries - 100 million estimateestimate
Small Arms proliferationSmall Arms proliferation
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Presence of Military and Humanitarians in a Complex
Emergency Neutrality of the Humanitarians is Neutrality of the Humanitarians is
affectedaffected Military focus on short term rather Military focus on short term rather
than long term political solutionsthan long term political solutions The role and capacities of the The role and capacities of the
military in peace operationsmilitary in peace operations Differing levels of security possibleDiffering levels of security possible
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Dilemmas of Humanitarian Assistance
Focused on the basis of need - can Focused on the basis of need - can create animositiescreate animosities
Aid has become a political toolAid has become a political tool Aid can make the security situation Aid can make the security situation
worseworse Aid may be fueling the conflictAid may be fueling the conflict Aid as a source of revenueAid as a source of revenue
– TheftTheft– ExtortionExtortion– Black marketBlack market– Part of the problemPart of the problem
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RECENT TRENDS Increased Risks for Field Staff of all Increased Risks for Field Staff of all
Organizations in the FieldOrganizations in the Field aid is politicizedaid is politicized has become a player in the conflictshas become a player in the conflicts
UN Affiliation UN Affiliation in the past a shield and protectionin the past a shield and protection today, regardless of legal process today, regardless of legal process
includes riskincludes risk International Organizations/NGOsInternational Organizations/NGOs
all at riskall at risk
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THREATS THAT CREATE COMPLEX EMERGENCIES
Ongoing ConflictOngoing Conflict Population DisplacementPopulation Displacement Emerging or Re-emerging Emerging or Re-emerging
Infectious DiseaseInfectious Disease TerrorismTerrorism GlobalizationGlobalization
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ONGOING CONFLICT
Cannot be contained within bordersCannot be contained within borders Weapons proliferation in regionsWeapons proliferation in regions National interests of the neighborsNational interests of the neighbors Lack of or weak international responseLack of or weak international response Resource extractionResource extraction Financial GainsFinancial Gains Criminal activitiesCriminal activities Aid as a tool to continue conflictsAid as a tool to continue conflicts
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Population Displacement Legal Concept of DisplacedLegal Concept of Displaced
– Refugees - narrow definition & Refugees - narrow definition & international supportinternational support
– IDPs - not supportedIDPs - not supported– Economic RefugeesEconomic Refugees– Those fleeing natural disastersThose fleeing natural disasters– MigrantsMigrants– EvacueesEvacuees– Expelled Expelled
Present Major Security ThreatPresent Major Security Threat
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Refugees as a Threat Not a threat in themselves Not a threat in themselves High numbers present a direct economic and cultural threatHigh numbers present a direct economic and cultural threat Provision of services to refugee populations stress host Provision of services to refugee populations stress host
nationsnations If they do not receive aid they destroy the local natural If they do not receive aid they destroy the local natural
resourcesresources Location of camps & control by host nationLocation of camps & control by host nation Breeding ground for Terrorism within campsBreeding ground for Terrorism within camps Armed individuals - How do you deal with themArmed individuals - How do you deal with them Aid provided by locals - yet they cannot receive aidAid provided by locals - yet they cannot receive aid Threat to the local economyThreat to the local economy Destroy the local labor marketDestroy the local labor market
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INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY AGENDA
Emergent diseases pose a significant challenge Emergent diseases pose a significant challenge to security and national interests - Impairs State to security and national interests - Impairs State capacity to maintain securitycapacity to maintain security
Non traditional threat – how do you define it in Non traditional threat – how do you define it in the spectrum of national interests (vital - war, the spectrum of national interests (vital - war, important – devote resources)important – devote resources)
Challenges orthodox theories of international Challenges orthodox theories of international relationsrelations
Normal evaluation of the threat based on Normal evaluation of the threat based on relative military capacities is no longer valid– relative military capacities is no longer valid– pales in comparisonpales in comparison
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INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY AGENDA (Cont’d)
Disease is much more harmful to the Disease is much more harmful to the Nation and National securityNation and National security
Shift to internal state conflict provides a Shift to internal state conflict provides a breeding ground for new diseasesbreeding ground for new diseases
Vectors:Population dislocations & their Vectors:Population dislocations & their consequences, living styles, consequences, living styles, international travel, extended international travel, extended commerce, climate change, war or commerce, climate change, war or economic declineeconomic decline
Cannot be contained within bordersCannot be contained within borders
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Deadly SevenDeadly Seven - - TB, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Hepatitis B/C, TB, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Hepatitis B/C, Respiratory Infections, Diarrheal Diseases, measlesRespiratory Infections, Diarrheal Diseases, measles
Emergent Infectious DiseaseEmergent Infectious Disease Ratio of Deaths From Disease to War - 52:1Ratio of Deaths From Disease to War - 52:1 Potential Weapon of War Potential Weapon of War Potential Economic WeaponPotential Economic Weapon Enormous Implications for State Survival, Enormous Implications for State Survival,
Stability, Prosperity, socio-economic Stability, Prosperity, socio-economic developmentdevelopment
Trade Embargoes & Travel RestrictionsTrade Embargoes & Travel Restrictions
INFECTIOUS DISEASE
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REASONS FOR RESURGENCE NEW VECTORS
Population dislocationsPopulation dislocations Sudden population movements Sudden population movements
(humanitarian emergencies)(humanitarian emergencies) Living styles – urbanizationLiving styles – urbanization Rising international travelRising international travel Extended commerceExtended commerce Inappropriate use of antibioticsInappropriate use of antibiotics Breakdown of public health due to Breakdown of public health due to
conflict or economic declineconflict or economic decline Climate changesClimate changes
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IMPLICATIONS FOR STATE SURVIVAL/STABILITY/PROSPERITY
Premature death and debilitation of the Premature death and debilitation of the populationpopulation
Erodes worker productivityErodes worker productivity Undermines state prosperity and legitimacy Undermines state prosperity and legitimacy High levels of psychological stress in High levels of psychological stress in
populationpopulation Fosters internal and external migrationFosters internal and external migration Migration to citiesMigration to cities Threatens states ability to defend itself and Threatens states ability to defend itself and
project forceproject force Generates institutional fragilityGenerates institutional fragility
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Terrorism is Not New Weapon of choice in intra-state conflictWeapon of choice in intra-state conflict Targeting of civilians in conflictTargeting of civilians in conflict Rape as a weapon of warRape as a weapon of war The destruction of cultural and religious The destruction of cultural and religious
monumentsmonuments Ethnic cleansingEthnic cleansing GenocideGenocide Forced population displacementsForced population displacements BombingBombing Killing of political oppositionKilling of political opposition Attacks on ethnic groupsAttacks on ethnic groups
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Globalization
Ability to Participate in Economic Ability to Participate in Economic ModelsModels
Slow Socioeconomic DevelopmentSlow Socioeconomic Development Challenge to Democratic Challenge to Democratic
DevelopmentDevelopment Provoke Economic Decay, social Provoke Economic Decay, social
Fragmentation, Political Fragmentation, Political DestabilizationDestabilization
Pressures on National Support Pressures on National Support Services such as HealthServices such as Health
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CONSEQUENCES OF THE THREATS
State capacity and security is impairedState capacity and security is impaired Diminishes prospects for state survival and Diminishes prospects for state survival and
prosperityprosperity Destroys State ability to meet needsDestroys State ability to meet needs
– SurvivalSurvival– Protection from physical harm (internal, Protection from physical harm (internal,
external, ecological threats)external, ecological threats)– Economic prosperityEconomic prosperity– Territorial integrityTerritorial integrity– Effective governanceEffective governance– StabilityStability
Generates Conflict