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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd March 19, 2018 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance . * nine months ended Mar 31, 2016 due to change in accounting year The Supreme Industries Ltd No. of shares (m) 127.0 Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 15244/2349.9 Current price (Rs/$) 1200/18.5 Price target (Rs/$) 1416/21.8 52 W H/L (Rs.) 1476/1020 Book Value (Rs/$) 135/2.1 Beta 0.6 Daily volume NSE (avg. monthly) 61510 P/BV (FY18e/19e) 8.8/7.4 EV/EBITDA (FY18e/19e) 21.7/17.7 P/E (FY18e/19e) 40.3/31.6 EPS growth (FY17/18e/19e) 11.6/-11.8/27.6 OPM (FY17/18e/19e) 17.1/14.3/15.5 ROE (FY17/18e/19e) 30.3/23.3/25.5 ROCE(FY17/18e/19e) 22.6/18.6/21.3 D/E ratio (FY17/18e/19e) 0.2/0.2/0.1 BSE Code 509930 NSE Code SUPREMEIND Bloomberg SI IN Reuters SUPI.BO Shareholding pattern % Promoters 49.7 MFs / Banks / FIs/Others 18.7 FPIs 10.4 Govt. Holding - Public & Others 21.2 Total 100.0 As on Dec 31, 2017 Recommendation ACCUMULATE Analyst KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043 E- mail: [email protected] (Figures in Rs crs) FY15 FY16* FY17 FY18e FY19e Income from operations 4255.18 2960.06 4462.26 4978.66 5644.53 Other Income 4.66 5.13 8.86 4.86 3.01 EBITDA (other income included) 670.89 458.43 770.73 717.94 880.62 Profit after EO & associate profit 320.75 225.65 428.67 378.16 482.68 EPS 25.25 17.77 33.75 29.77 38.00 EPS growth (%) 14.0 38.8 11.6 -11.8 27.6 Quarterly Highlights After initial setbacks in Q1 - precipitated by massive destocking ahead of GST - when its overall plastic goods volumes shriveled 5%, Supreme has shown transformation of sorts for its overall plastic goods volumes surged 18.3% in Q2 followed by 19.2% in Q3. Save for packaging products business - bruised by capacity constraints of protective packaging - most other businesses have made noteworthy advances with the flagship plastic piping systems dispatches up by 17% and 24.9% in Q2 & Q3 and industrial products up by 17% and 16.9% respectively. Yet OPMs of plastic piping systems business has discernibly declined in last few quarters not least due to higher sale of voluminous PVC pipes in agriculture sector in last few quarters and inventory losses in Q2, thus exacerbating shrinkage in 9M - 12.8% Vs 16.3% in the same period a year ago. Menace of higher throughput of PVC pipes was barely more evident than in Q3 when Supreme’s plastic piping systems revenue growth trailed its volumes growth was over 600 bps. Its share of value added products also slid to 40% in Q3 from 43% a year ago. Some effect of all this subtly reflected in a paltry 6.5% growth in operating profit on the back of 15.4% growth in sales, resulting in merely 5.6% rise in post tax earnings. Its much heralded composite cylinder business has barely seen resurrection of sorts for this division having failed to bag orders for Indian oil & marketing companies has been left scurrying for orders in Bangladesh and South Korea. The stock currently trades at 40.3x FY18 e EPS of Rs 29.77 and 31.6x FY19e EPS of Rs 38. Prodded by higher margins and fall in financial expense, Supreme’s earnings would perhaps grow at the fastest pace since fiscal ended March 2016. Higher allocation to government sponsored schemes like AMRUT, PMAS and others, demand for both agri and non-agri pipes would patently get a boost. Yet severe fluctuations in polymer prices and its trickle effect on margins are not worthy of being ignored. Revival in hardly belittling plastic piping business, earnings would vigorously resurrect next fiscal. On balance, we maintain our accumulate rating on the stock with revised target of Rs 1416 9previous target: Rs 1289) based on 38x FY19e earnings over a period of 6-9 months (forward peg ratio cut to 1.4; four year historical P/E (FY18 included): 33x).

Transcript of CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd -...

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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd March 19, 2018

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

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* nine months ended Mar 31, 2016 due to change in accounting year

The Supreme Industries Ltd

No. of shares (m) 127.0

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 15244/2349.9

Current price (Rs/$) 1200/18.5

Price target (Rs/$)

1416/21.8

52 W H/L (Rs.) 1476/1020

Book Value (Rs/$) 135/2.1

Beta 0.6

Daily volume NSE (avg. monthly) 61510

P/BV (FY18e/19e) 8.8/7.4

EV/EBITDA (FY18e/19e) 21.7/17.7

P/E (FY18e/19e) 40.3/31.6

EPS growth (FY17/18e/19e) 11.6/-11.8/27.6

OPM (FY17/18e/19e) 17.1/14.3/15.5

ROE (FY17/18e/19e) 30.3/23.3/25.5

ROCE(FY17/18e/19e) 22.6/18.6/21.3

D/E ratio (FY17/18e/19e) 0.2/0.2/0.1

BSE Code 509930

NSE Code SUPREMEIND

Bloomberg SI IN

Reuters SUPI.BO

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 49.7

MFs / Banks / FIs/Others 18.7

FPIs 10.4

Govt. Holding -

Public & Others 21.2

Total 100.0

As on Dec 31, 2017

Recommendation

ACCUMULATE

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

(Figures in Rs crs)

FY15

FY16*

FY17 FY18e

FY19e

Income from operations 4255.18 2960.06 4462.26 4978.66 5644.53

Other Income 4.66 5.13 8.86 4.86 3.01

EBITDA (other income included) 670.89 458.43 770.73 717.94 880.62

Profit after EO & associate profit 320.75 225.65 428.67 378.16 482.68

EPS (Rs) 25.25 17.77 33.75 29.77 38.00

EPS growth (%) 14.0 38.8 11.6 -11.8 27.6

Quarterly Highlights

� After initial setbacks in Q1 - precipitated by massive destocking ahead of

GST - when its overall plastic goods volumes shriveled 5%, Supreme has

shown transformation of sorts for its overall plastic goods volumes

surged 18.3% in Q2 followed by 19.2% in Q3. Save for packaging

products business - bruised by capacity constraints of protective

packaging - most other businesses have made noteworthy advances with

the flagship plastic piping systems dispatches up by 17% and 24.9% in Q2

& Q3 and industrial products up by 17% and 16.9% respectively.

� Yet OPMs of plastic piping systems business has discernibly declined in

last few quarters not least due to higher sale of voluminous PVC pipes in

agriculture sector in last few quarters and inventory losses in Q2, thus

exacerbating shrinkage in 9M - 12.8% Vs 16.3% in the same period a year

ago. Menace of higher throughput of PVC pipes was barely more evident

than in Q3 when Supreme’s plastic piping systems revenue growth trailed

its volumes growth was over 600 bps. Its share of value added products

also slid to 40% in Q3 from 43% a year ago.

� Some effect of all this subtly reflected in a paltry 6.5% growth in operating

profit on the back of 15.4% growth in sales, resulting in merely 5.6% rise

in post tax earnings. Its much heralded composite cylinder business has

barely seen resurrection of sorts for this division having failed to bag

orders for Indian oil & marketing companies has been left scurrying for

orders in Bangladesh and South Korea.

� The stock currently trades at 40.3x FY18 e EPS of Rs 29.77 and 31.6x FY19e

EPS of Rs 38. Prodded by higher margins and fall in financial expense,

Supreme’s earnings would perhaps grow at the fastest pace since fiscal

ended March 2016. Higher allocation to government sponsored schemes

like AMRUT, PMAS and others, demand for both agri and non-agri pipes

would patently get a boost. Yet severe fluctuations in polymer prices and

its trickle effect on margins are not worthy of being ignored. Revival in

hardly belittling plastic piping business, earnings would vigorously

resurrect next fiscal. On balance, we maintain our accumulate rating on

the stock with revised target of Rs 1416 9previous target: Rs 1289) based

on 38x FY19e earnings over a period of 6-9 months (forward peg ratio cut

to 1.4; four year historical P/E (FY18 included): 33x).

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Outlook & Recommendation

Capex Vigorous rebound in economic activity in Q1 goaded Supreme to supplement its start of the year capex program by some Rs 100

crs ($15.4m), a rarity for its actual annual capex has not surpassed its budgeted capex in all but one in past five years. To shield

its protective packing business from losing market presence, capacities are installed are its plants at Hosur, Malanpur and

Kharagpur; a unit is being planned in North East also. No less effervescent Supreme's industrial components - volumes rose

13% in FY17 - would also see its capacity being increased at Ghiloth (Rajasthan) sometime in the next financial year. To tap

growing demand for HDPE pipes capacity enhancement is being planned at its Malanpur unit III (M.P) for likely production in

FY19; previous estimate Q1FY19.

Land acquisition plans are seldom off table ranging from land of procurement for green field plastic product manufacturing

complex in Southern India to cornering 50 acres of land at Telangana (expected production in FY19) to most recent possession of

some 11 acres of land in Puducherry. Yet no notable has been seen as yet in its stock of freehold land over the years - Rs 25.50 crs

($4.7m) in FY13 to Rs 43.72 crs ($6.7m) in FY17. As largely expected, its plastic piping systems business hog much of the planned

total capacity expansion in FY18 (28000 mt of 50000 mt), while industrial and packaging businesses would take away 12000 mt

and 10000 mt respectively.

Financials & Valuation

If Indian government schemes have anything worthy of demonstration, then Indian housing and irrigation sectors are agog

with not puny opportunities. Much touted Prime Minister Awas Scheme proposes to complete construction of 10m rural houses

by 2019; already sanctioned 3.7m houses for construction in urban areas; though the pace of urban house building dreadfully

slowed in 2016-17 - only 1.49 lakh houses were built as against a target of 32.6 lakh units, barely preventing the Indian

government to set a target of constructing 12 lakh urban houses in 2017-18. To give a fillip to affordable housing sector, the

Government of India in its recently unveiled federal budget, announced setting up a dedicated affordable housing fund under

the National Housing Board (NHB) - funded by priority sector lending shortfall and GOI's authorized bonds.

Widening the reach of AMRUT, the federal budget 2019 announced that the scheme would focus on water supply to all

households in 500 Indian cities; GOI to award nearly 500 contracts worth Rs 19428 crs. To give an impetus to the irrigation

sector, budgetary allocation under Prime Minister Krishi Sinchai Yojna (PMKSY) was all but doubled recently and an additional

budgetary support of Rs 15000 crs was provided for completing 48 priority projects under PMKSY-AIBP to be completed by

December 2019. Indeed GOI's unstinted focus on rejuvenating the hinterland has cornered much of the attention of Indian pipe

manufacturers - bulk of Supreme's capex flows through the plastic piping system business, be it the recently unveiled plant at

Kharagpur for PVC, CPVC and HDPE Pipes or the planned plastic complex in South India or the under construction HDPE

pipe unit at Malanpur.

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Unwarranted skimpiness in margins - partly brought about by low volume growth (9.4% in 9MFY18; 11.3% estimated for

FY18) has triggered not unreasonable earning cut - FY18's slashed by 13.3%. Buoyancy in exports hasn't helped either - 46%

growth in H1FY18; 59% in Q3- not least due to its minimal overall impact. Newly launched products like blow furniture and

CPVC fire sprinkler system hold immense potential. Yet intensifying competition in agri-pipes space and overreliance on

bargained PVC pipes business does demand unflinching scrutiny.

The stock currently trades at 40.3x FY18e EPS of Rs 29.77 and 31.6x FY19e EPS of Rs 38. Higher polymer prices emanating from

higher crude oil prices to shutdown of several Chinese polluting polymer plants is expected to keep global polymer prices high

for some time. Afflicted by demonetization and RERA, Indian home loan growth during Apr-Oct period fell 32.7% from the

same period a year before - the highest decline in five years. Yet astonishing sundry of products ranging from furniture to PVC

pipes to bathroom fittings to automobile components to plastic films to material handling products does have

counterbalancing impact, a must for any business redux. Buttressed by higher capacities of packaging products and margin

revival in hardly belittling plastic piping business, earnings would vigorously resurrect next fiscal. On balance, we maintain

our accumulate rating on the stock with revised target of Rs 1416 9previous target: Rs 1289) based on 38x FY19e earnings over

a period of 6-9 months (forward peg ratio cut to 1.4; four year historical P/E (FY18 included): 33x).For more info refer to our

July report.

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Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP Mcap* Sales* Profit* OPM (%)

NPM (%)

Int. Cov.

ROE (%) DER

Mcap / sales P/BV P/E

Astral Poly 12 855 10235 2042 166 14.1 8.3 19.3 25.9 0.3 5.0 14.3 61.6

Finolex Ind. 124 668 8286 2825 308 17.0 10.9 60.1 14.0 0.1 2.9 3.5 26.9

Supreme 25.4 1200 15244 4778 398 15.5 7.4 24.6 23.7 0.3 3.2 8.9 38.3

*figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis

Book value adjusted for goodwill and revaluation reserves where applicable

After struggling for much of last year - when Finolex's mainly agri sector driven PVC pipe & fittings business volumes rose by a

dazzling 0.3% - the lowest rate in at least five years - Finolex's PVC pipes & fittings dispatches surged by 24% - 50.2% in Q3 - in

first nine months of the current fiscal; PVC resins dispatches too up by 17.7% in 9M. Yet its margins dithered - razed by higher

material prices - for much of the current fiscal - OPM 5.6% in Q3 Vs 6.7% in the same quarter last fiscal; for 9M its down ~380 bps

y-o-y. To reinforce its presence in fledgling CPVC pipe & fittings market - currently less than 10% of the overall pipes & fittings

volume - it has partnered with world renowned Lubrizol Corporation for supply of CPVC compound for manufacturing of its

Flowguard brand of pipes in India.

Faster shift to organized market - instigated by both GST and demonetization - partially helped explain some 19% growth in

Astral’s plumbing prejudiced pipes & fittings volumes in 9M - 28.4% in Q3 - though not aptly supported by the real estate

market. Thanks to fall in raw material prices, gross margins expanded for its plastic business so far this fiscal. Cut throat

competition in Indian agricultural piping segment has caught producers unawares, prompting Astral to assiduously focus on the

plumbing market. For expanding its footprint in North and North-East regions and also save on logistics the company is

hastening completion of its plant at Rajasthan by this month end. Capacity at its Hosur plant is being doubled - production to be

commenced in Q1 not only to enhance its Southern market presence but also save logistics costs.

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Financials

Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY18 Q3FY17 % chg. 9MFY18 9MFY17 % chg.

Income from operations 1278.30 1107.42 15.4 3495.02 3179.63 9.9

Other Income 0.50 0.40 25.3 1.05 2.56 -59.0

Total Income 1278.80 1107.82 15.4 3496.07 3182.19 9.9

Total Expenditure 1080.57 921.74 17.2 2994.67 2657.70 12.7

EBIDTA (other income incl.) 198.23 186.08 6.5 501.40 524.49 -4.4

Interest 7.86 8.47 -7.2 16.33 26.84 -39.2

Depreciation 42.76 38.69 10.5 125.79 113.12 11.2

PBT 147.61 138.92 6.3 359.28 384.54 -6.6

Tax 51.78 48.16 7.5 128.33 133.43 -3.8

Net Profit 95.83 90.76 5.6 230.95 251.11 -8.0

P/L of associate 8.39 10.62 -21.0 22.48 32.88 -31.6

Net Profit after MI & associate 104.22 101.39 2.8 253.43 283.99 -10.8

Extraordinary Item - - - - - -

Adjusted Net Profit 104.22 101.39 2.8 253.43 283.99 -10.8 EPS 8.20 7.98 2.8 19.95 22.35 -10.8

Segment results Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY18 Q3FY17 % chg. 9MFY18 9MFY17 % chg.

Segment revenue

Plastic piping products 666.45 561.88 18.6% 1898.41 1731.10 9.7%

Industrial products 192.73 149.85 28.6% 544.06 460.35 18.2%

Packaging products 319.19 310.59 2.8% 773.16 724.99 6.6%

Consumer products 91.34 78.18 16.8% 256.44 233.24 9.9%

Others 8.59 6.92 24.1% 22.96 29.95 -23.3%

Net income from ops. 1278.30 1107.42 15.4% 3495.03 3179.63 9.9%

Segment EBIT

Plastic piping products 67.80 74.10 -8.5% 183.30 230.58 -20.5%

Industrial products 18.46 9.65 91.2% 45.18 32.13 40.6%

Packaging products 61.42 56.33 9.0% 125.29 128.47 -2.5%

Consumer products 12.08 11.67 3.5% 33.02 33.56 -1.6%

Others -3.43 -3.31 3.5% -9.26 -8.67 6.8%

Total 156.33 148.44 5.3% 377.53 416.07 -9.3%

Interest 7.86 8.47 -7.2% 16.33 26.84 -39.2%

Other unallocable exp. 0.86 1.05 -18.1% 1.91 4.69 -59.3%

PBT 147.61 138.92 6.3% 359.28 384.54 -6.6%

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Consolidated Income Statement Figures in Rs crs

FY15 FY16* FY17 FY18e FY19e

Income from operations 4255.18 2960.06 4462.26 4978.86 5644.53

Growth (%) 7.4 -0.6 5.2 11.6 13.4

Other Income 4.66 5.13 8.86 4.86 3.01

Total Income 4259.84 2965.19 4471.12 4983.72 5647.53

Total Expenditure 3588.95 2506.77 3700.39 4265.77 4766.91

EBIDTA (other income incl.) 670.89 458.43 770.73 717.94 880.62

Interest 60.19 31.87 33.99 26.30 21.29

EBDT 610.70 426.56 736.74 691.65 859.33

Depreciation 138.96 104.57 154.29 169.87 186.41

Tax 160.04 117.64 205.78 180.54 235.52

Net Profit 311.71 204.35 376.68 341.24 437.40

P/L of associate 10.65 17.04 53.73 37.57 45.93

Profit after MI & associate profit 322.36 221.38 430.40 378.82 483.33

Extraordinary Item 1.60 -4.28 1.74 0.65 0.65

Adjusted Net Profit 320.75 225.65 428.67 378.16 482.68

EPS* (Rs) 25.25 17.77# 33.75 29.77 38.00

* nine months ended Mar 31, 2016 due to change in accounting year # not annualized

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Consolidated Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs

FY15 FY16* FY17 FY18e FY19e

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 25.41 25.41 25.41 25.41 25.41

Reserves 1294.88 1290.32 1670.32 1817.80 2148.24

Total Shareholders Funds 1320.29 1315.72 1695.72 1843.21 2173.64

Long term debt 232.16 64.14 16.62 1.23 1.23

Total Liabilities 1552.45 1379.86 1712.34 1844.44 2174.87

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 1844.54 2085.72 2298.30 2646.20 2973.20

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 812.04 901.07 1035.00 1204.87 1391.27

Net Block 1032.50 1184.66 1263.30 1441.33 1581.93

Capital Work in Progress 101.77 68.21 45.90 125.00 75.00

Investments 120.70 126.17 174.64 199.18 236.43

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 462.70 557.85 776.85 757.43 810.45

Sundry Debtors 237.97 236.22 275.33 316.63 348.29

Cash and Bank 181.84 28.87 79.83 22.57 27.98

Loans and Advances 133.49 153.62 146.70 143.80 144.82

Total CA & LA 1015.99 976.57 1278.71 1240.42 1331.55

Current Liabilities 701.68 923.65 970.56 1084.59 954.17

Provisions 2.70 3.49 4.04 4.70 5.17

Total Current Liabilities 704.38 927.14 974.60 1089.29 959.34

Net Current Assets 311.60 49.42 304.11 151.14 372.21

Net Deferred Tax -90.58 -105.48 -116.26 -124.80 -133.11

Other Assets (Net Of Liabilities) 76.45 56.90 40.65 52.59 42.42

Total Assets 1552.45 1379.86 1712.34 1844.44 2174.87

* nine months ended Mar 31, 2016 due to change in accounting year

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Cash Flow Statement Figures in Rs crs

FY16* FY17 FY18e FY19e

Net Income (a) 204.35 376.68 341.24 437.40

Non cash exp. & others (b) 119.98 153.32 174.00 192.16

Depreciation 104.57 154.29 169.87 186.41

Deferred tax 14.89 10.78 8.54 8.31

Interest received -2.99 -3.28 -3.35 -1.49

Profit on sale of investments -2.14 -1.54 -1.00 -1.00

Profit on sale of assets 1.19 -1.15 - -

Others 4.46 -5.78 -0.06 -0.06

(Increase) / decrease in NWC & others (c) -59.80 -96.42 28.56 -15.10

Change in inventory -95.15 -219.00 19.42 -53.02

Change in trade receivables 1.75 -39.11 -41.30 -31.66

Trade payables 44.91 113.19 9.07 46.23

Other assets (net of liabilities) -11.31 48.50 41.37 23.35

Operating cash flow (a+b+c) 264.52 433.57 543.81 614.46

Purchase of fixed assets -233.15 -212.73 -427.00 -277.00

sale of fixed assets 1.28 2.89 0.18 -

Sale of investments 2.14 1.54 1.00 1.00

Interest received 2.99 3.16 3.35 1.49

Dividend received from associate 8.68 2.89 13.02 8.68

Rent recd 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06

Investing cash flow (d) -218.06 -202.19 -409.39 -265.76

Net borrowings 20.02 -133.11 37.66 -190.39

Dividends paid (including CDT) -221.68 -45.87 -229.33 -152.89

Financing cash flow (e) -201.66 -178.98 -191.68 -343.28

Net change (a+b+c+d+e) -155.19 52.41 -57.26 5.42 * nine months ended Mar 31, 2016 due to change in accounting year

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Key Financial Ratios

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Growth Ratios (%)

Revenue 7.4 -0.6 5.2 11.6 13.4

EBIDTA (other income included) 13.0 13.5 6.8 -6.7 22.7

Net Profit 14.0 38.8 11.6 -11.8 27.6

EPS 14.0 38.8 11.6 -11.8 27.6

Margins (%)

Operating Profit Margin 15.7 15.6 17.1 14.3 15.5

Gross Profit Margin 14.3 14.6 16.5 13.9 15.2

Net Profit Margin 7.3 7.0 8.4 6.8 7.7

Return (%)

ROCE 22.4 18.3 22.6 18.6 21.3

ROE 28.5 23.7 30.3 23.3 25.5

Valuations

Market Cap / Sales 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.1 2.7

EV/EBIDTA 13.1 15.8 18.3 21.7 17.7

P/E 26.7 31.2 32.3 40.3 31.6

P/BV 7.1 7.1 9.2 8.8 7.4

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 8.8 11.3 18.1 20.8 32.6

Debt-Equity Ratio 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

Current Ratioa 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7

Total Asset Turnover 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0

Debtors Turnover 18.0 16.6 17.4 16.8 17.0

Inventory Turnover 7.5 6.5 5.5 5.6 6.1

Creditors Turnover 12.4 10.3 9.3 9.3 9.8

WC Ratios

Debtor days 20.3 22.0 20.9 21.7 21.5

Inventory days 48.8 56.1 65.8 65.6 60.0

Creditor days 29.4 35.4 39.3 39.2 37.2

Cash conversion cycle 39.7 42.6 47.4 48.2 44.4

Cash Flows

Operating cash flow 264.5 433.6 543.8 614.5

FCFE 66.5 98.3 172.1 158.3

FCFF 66.7 253.4 151.6 362.5

Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT growth ratios for FY16 and FY17 calculated using data for comparable period; valuation ratios for FY16 on annualized data

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Cumulative Financial Data

FY08-10 FY11-13 FY14-16 FY17-19e

Polymers processed (mt) 503689 751825 832319 1202193

Income from operations 4989 8801 11177 15086

Operating profit 688 1365 1717 2353

EBIT 552 1156 1380 1854

PBT 421 999 1209 1772

PAT after MI & asso. Profit 294 723 828 1290

Dividends 115 263 371 550

OPM (%) 13.8 15.5 15.4 15.6

NPM (%) 5.6 7.6 7.1 7.6

Interest coverage 4.2 7.4 8.1 22.7

ROE (%) 29.8 37.3 27.4 25.5

ROCE (%) 19.1 23.9 21.2 20.6

Fixed asset turnover 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6

Debtors turnover 13.0 17.6 18.4 17.2

Inventory turnover 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.2

Creditors turnover 9.0 10.4 9.9 10.0

Debtors days 28.1 20.8 19.8 21.2

Inventory days 51.0 55.8 54.5 58.8

Creditor days 40.4 35.1 36.9 36.7

Cash conversion cycle 38.7 41.5 37.5 43.4

Dividend payout ratio (%) 40.4 39.3 46.9 47.6

FY08-10 implies three years ending fiscal 10; FY16 figures annualized for ratio calculation

Bettering from that in FY14-16 period, Supreme's total polymers processed (as measured in mt) is estimated to rise by 31.7%

in FY17-19e period, driven by a resolute plastic piping systems segment whose volume share would all but retained at 66%

(66.7% in FY14-16 period). Plagued by pinching capacity constraints at its protective packaging units, Supreme's most

lucrative packaging business cumulative volumes would grow by just 24.5%, underscoring unflinching attempts to boost

capacity; some of it in places like Hosur and West Bengal - would go on stream shortly.

If it would not have been for the miraculous margin expansion in FY17 - not unassisted by most businesses with the ever

expanding plastic piping systems and consumer products posting hefty increases - and for the modest recovery expected next

fiscal, OPMs for FY17-19 would have struggled to tread its recent path. Twin impact of higher cash flows and gradual debt

retirement would help push interest coverage higher - 22.7 in FY17-19 from 8.1 in the preceding three year period. Yet return

on capital has abysmally shrunk over the years - ROE sliding from 37.3% in FY11-13 period to 27.4% to 25.5% in the projected

period - instigated by consistent addition to capital stock and not so perky earnings. Not unsurprisingly, working capital

ratios in such motley of products barely demonstrate such stability - cash conversion cycle expected to slightly improve to 43.4

days (see table).

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated million $ FY15 FY16* FY17 FY18e FY19e

Equity capital 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9

Shareholders funds 193.9 198.4 233.2 267.6 316.2

Total debt 62.6 62.1 43.0 48.8 19.5

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 181.2 188.9 201.9 241.4 255.4

Investments 19.3 19.0 26.9 30.7 36.4

Net current assets 32.7 7.5 18.6 6.8 38.5

Total assets 231.0 208.0 235.8 267.8 316.4

Revenues 695.9 452.2 665.1 767.5 870.1

EBITDA 109.3 71.1 114.5 110.5 135.6

EBDT 99.5 66.2 109.4 106.5 132.3

PBT 76.8 50.2 86.4 80.3 103.6

Profit after MI & associate profit 52.5 34.5 63.9 58.3 74.4

EPS($) 0.41 0.27 0.50 0.46 0.59

Book value ($) 1.53 1.56 1.84 2.11 2.49

Operating cash flow 39.9 66.9 83.8 94.7

Investing cash flow -32.9 -31.2 -63.1 -41.0

Financing cash flow -30.4 -27.6 -29.5 -52.9

income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rates ($64.87/$) * nine months ended Mar 31, 2016 due to change in accounting year

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Exchange Rates Used- Indicative

Rs/$ FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Average 60.5 61.15 65.46 67.09

Year end 60.1 62.59 66.33 64.84

All $ values mentioned in the write-up translated at the average rate of the respective quarter/ year as applicable. Projections converted at

current exchange rate. Cumulative dollar figure is the sum of respective yearly dollar value.