CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD...

12
CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance *includes Rs 20.25 crs profit on sale of investment in NHK Spring; EPS post preference dividend Jamna Auto Industries Ltd (JAI) No. of shares (crore) 3.97 Mkt cap (Rs crs) 736 Current price (16/09/2015) 185 Price target (Rs) 240 52 week H/L (Rs.) 275/129 Book Value (Rs.) (fv:10) 52.7 P/BV (16e/17e) 3.2/2.7 P/E (16e/17e) 14.7/11.6 EPS growth (FY16e/17e) 63.1/27.2 ROE (FY15/FY16e/FY17e) 16.3/23.4/25.1 Beta 1.1 Daily volume (avg. monthly) 13567 BSE Code 520051 NSE Code JAMNAAUTO Bloomberg JMNA IN Reuters JMNA.BO Shareholding pattern % Promoters 43.8 MFs / Banks / FIs 0.3 Foreign 1.0 Non-Promoter Corp. 1.7 Public & others 53.3 Total 100.0 As on June 30, 2015 Recommendation BUY Analyst KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043 E- mail: [email protected] (Figires in Rs crs) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e Income from operations 980.15 833.76 1095.01 1338.23 1547.27 Other Income 2.34 22.27* 2.01 2.05 2.61 EBITDA (other income included) 87.84 66.68 96.50 129.18 153.47 Net Profit after MI & EO item 27.80 -2.94 30.72 50.03 63.64 EPS (Rs) 6.91 - 7.72 12.60 16.02 EPS growth (%) -38.8 - - 63.1 27.2 Company Brief Jamna Auto manufactures auto suspension products -parabolic/ tapered leaf spring, lift axle and air suspension- mainly for OEMs in the commercial vehicle segment. It has plants at six locations in India. Highlights Data suggests that the Indian M&HCV industry has turned the corner. Its sales grew by 24.9% in Apr-July period on the back of no less robust year - reported 16% growth. Sharp bounce was visible in the truck segment last fiscal- reported 34000 increase - while the bus segment sales slid. Off take could remain buoyant not least because of marginal recovery in manufacturing and mining activities and growing demand for freight carriage. Jamna Auto claims proximity to plants of major OEMs - has six plants in five Indian states. While its Chennai plant peddles goods to Ashok Leyland, Bharat Benz, Ford and Isuzu, the one at Jamshedpur exclusively handles conventional spring orders for M&HCVs of Tata Motors. Most striking is the throughput of its assembly unit at Pantnagar: supplies springs to Tata Motors (for Ace and Magic models) and Ashok Leyland and also takes care of the aftermarket sales through its subsidiary, Jai Suspension Systems LLP. If sales of lift axles in Q1FY16 is any indication of the full year forecast (reported fourfold increase in sales at 3750 units), then Jamna Auto would report a good increase in sales. Technological support of Ridewell USA, would further let loose the potential of this business. Thanks to its technological might in conventional springs, Jamna Auto has consistently maintained over 60% market share in the domestic OEM segment; 64% at last count. It has fully absorbed the technology of NHK Spring Co for manufacturing of parabolic leaf springs. It also brags of several dozen copyrights on designs of tapered leaf and parabolic springs. The stock is currently trading at 14.7x FY16e EPS of Rs 12.60 and 11.6x FY17e EPS of Rs 16.02. Notwithstanding robust growth potential on account of U turn recovery in CV industry, the stock deserves peg ratio much less than unity for risks abound - client and product concentration; dreadful state of the LCV segment; still shaky recovery of M&CV segment. Yet, odds favour enterprising investors. We, therefore, assign ‘buy’ rating on the stock with a target of Rs 240 based on 15x FY17e earnings (peg ratio: 0.3), over a period of 9-12 months.

Transcript of CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD...

Page 1: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

*includes Rs 20.25 crs profit on sale of investment in NHK Spring; EPS post preference dividend

Jamna Auto Industries Ltd (JAI)

No. of shares (crore) 3.97

Mkt cap (Rs crs) 736

Current price (16/09/2015) 185

Price target (Rs)

240

52 week H/L (Rs.) 275/129

Book Value (Rs.) (fv:10) 52.7

P/BV (16e/17e)

3.2/2.7

P/E (16e/17e) 14.7/11.6

EPS growth (FY16e/17e) 63.1/27.2

ROE (FY15/FY16e/FY17e) 16.3/23.4/25.1

Beta 1.1

Daily volume (avg. monthly) 13567

BSE Code 520051

NSE Code JAMNAAUTO

Bloomberg JMNA IN

Reuters JMNA.BO

Shareholding pattern % Promoters 43.8

MFs / Banks / FIs 0.3

Foreign 1.0

Non-Promoter Corp. 1.7

Public & others 53.3

Total 100.0

As on June 30, 2015

Recommendation

BUY

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

(Figires in Rs crs)

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Income from operations 980.15 833.76 1095.01 1338.23 1547.27

Other Income 2.34 22.27* 2.01 2.05 2.61

EBITDA (other income included) 87.84 66.68 96.50 129.18 153.47

Net Profit after MI & EO item 27.80 -2.94 30.72 50.03 63.64

EPS (Rs) 6.91 - 7.72 12.60 16.02

EPS growth (%) -38.8 - - 63.1 27.2

Company Brief Jamna Auto manufactures auto suspension products -parabolic/ tapered leaf

spring, lift axle and air suspension- mainly for OEMs in the commercial vehicle

segment. It has plants at six locations in India.

Highlights

� Data suggests that the Indian M&HCV industry has turned the corner. Its

sales grew by 24.9% in Apr-July period on the back of no less robust year -

reported 16% growth. Sharp bounce was visible in the truck segment last

fiscal- reported 34000 increase - while the bus segment sales slid. Off take

could remain buoyant not least because of marginal recovery in

manufacturing and mining activities and growing demand for freight

carriage.

� Jamna Auto claims proximity to plants of major OEMs - has six plants in five

Indian states. While its Chennai plant peddles goods to Ashok Leyland,

Bharat Benz, Ford and Isuzu, the one at Jamshedpur exclusively handles

conventional spring orders for M&HCVs of Tata Motors. Most striking is the

throughput of its assembly unit at Pantnagar: supplies springs to Tata

Motors (for Ace and Magic models) and Ashok Leyland and also takes care

of the aftermarket sales through its subsidiary, Jai Suspension Systems LLP.

� If sales of lift axles in Q1FY16 is any indication of the full year forecast

(reported fourfold increase in sales at 3750 units), then Jamna Auto would

report a good increase in sales. Technological support of Ridewell USA,

would further let loose the potential of this business.

� Thanks to its technological might in conventional springs, Jamna Auto has

consistently maintained over 60% market share in the domestic OEM

segment; 64% at last count. It has fully absorbed the technology of NHK

Spring Co for manufacturing of parabolic leaf springs. It also brags of several

dozen copyrights on designs of tapered leaf and parabolic springs.

� The stock is currently trading at 14.7x FY16e EPS of Rs 12.60 and 11.6x FY17e

EPS of Rs 16.02. Notwithstanding robust growth potential on account of U

turn recovery in CV industry, the stock deserves peg ratio much less than

unity for risks abound - client and product concentration; dreadful state of

the LCV segment; still shaky recovery of M&CV segment. Yet, odds favour

enterprising investors. We, therefore, assign ‘buy’ rating on the stock with a

target of Rs 240 based on 15x FY17e earnings (peg ratio: 0.3), over a period of

9-12 months.

Page 2: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

2

2

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

[ [ [

[

Company Profile

Jamna Auto is India's largest and world's third largest producer (after Rassini (Mexico) and Hendrickson (Canada & Mexico)

of tapered leaf springs and parabolic springs for commercial vehicles. With an installed capacity of 1.8 lakh mt, it supplies

springs for heavy & medium commercial vehicles, light commercial vehicles, SUVs, trailers and air suspension systems. It has

also forayed in lift axles and air suspensions by partnering with Ridewell, USA.

Jamna has strong presence in the OEM segment as it is the only Indian company to provide full range of automotive

suspension solutions for CVs. That's manifested in its awe-inspiring market share - 64% in the OEM market. It serves a score

of OEM locations in India from its plants in Yamuna Nagar, Malanpur (near Gwalior), Chennai, Jamshedpur, Hosur and Pant

Nagar.

Jamna has also built a strong dealer network nationwide, through its subsidiary - Jai Suspension Systems LLP -to support

growing domestic after market demand. It also boasts of a coveted client list both in India and abroad - domestic: Tata Motors,

Ashok Leyland, Daimler, Volvo, Renault Nissan, Eicher Motors, Swaraj Mazda. Its international clients include General

Motors, Isuzu and Ford Motors.

Product Overview

Multileaf springs

Jamna manufactures such springs ranging from 3kg to 200kg for use in commercial vehicles and special application vehicles.

Parabolic springs

Having pioneered the launch of parabolic springs technology in India several decades back, Jamna has engineered the same

for commercial vehicles. Its technological excellence - imported CNC automatic parabolic rolling machines - and suitable

product profile has helped it garner significant market share in Indian OEM market.

Suspension products

Jamna has partnered with Ridewell Corporation, USA to manufacture air suspension and lift axles in India.

Lift axle

Lift axle allow more weight to be carried by providing larger contact surface with the road for the distribution of weight. It

signed agreement with Ashok Leyland in FY12 to supply lift axle and started supply from the Chennai unit in FY13.

Page 3: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

3

3

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Investment Thesis

CV industry – out of woods

The M&HCV scraped the bottom last year for its domestic sales grew by eye-popping 16% after two years of tumultuous

decline. During this period (2012-2014), the industry shrank 43% to 2 lakh units from 3.49 lakh units not least because of

prolonged slowdown in economy activity, dreadful pace of infrastructural activity and lower fleet utilization by transporters

due to stagnant freight rates combined with frequent increases in diesel prices.

Yet the resilient, LCV segment is still to gain ground - sales has fallen now for two years in a row. It has been hit hard by

excess capacity and tight financial liquidity. High default rates along with early delinquencies led financiers to tighten

lending norms - lowering loan to value ratio on new deals and focusing on recoveries rather than on business growth.

It seems that the recovery in M&HCV industry is here to stay. M&HCV sales last year got a bump up from fleet operators'

desire to replenish their ageing fleet - prompted by sharp decline in diesel prices, moderation in interest rates and hike in

freight charges of Indian Railways. Resurrection of mining activities in Karnataka and Goa and rebooting of construction

projects helped matters too. Off take could remain buoyant because of marginal recovery in manufacturing and mining

activities and growing demand for freight carriage.

Tata Motors, India's largest CV manufacturer, reckons that continuing trend of ageing fleet vehicles may well last. Apart

from GOI's higher spends in infrastructure sector, sale of commercial vehicles would also get a lift from the gradual

acceptance of advance trucking platforms, progression to Bharat Stage V emissions norms and the introduction of

technologies, such as anti-lock braking systems. Ashok Leyland, a leading CV producer, believes that pent up replacement

demand has fueled the recent surge in CV industry. Yet it believes that mining sector is still lagging. Demand may still rise

owing to incessant fall in crude oil prices.

Auto component manufacturers stand to gain from rapid march of foreign OEMs in the Indian automobile market. It would

not only accelerate adoption of new technologies but also make India a sourcing hub for their global operations; several

global Tier I suppliers have already declared their intentions to aggressively source components. The share of the auto

components industry as a result is projected to increase to 3.6% of GDP by 2020, up from 2.4% in FY12.

Page 4: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

4

4

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Technical alliances

To spur its product range, Jamna has agreed to import the technology of Ridewell Corporation, USA for designing and

manufacturing air suspensions and lift axles. It caps its previous technological tie up with NHK Spring (Japan) which helped

it launch parabolic leaf springs - the technology for that has been fully absorbed. It also boasts of several dozen copyrights on

designs of tapered leaf and parabolic springs. For information, Ridewell is one of the world's largest manufacturers of air-ride,

rubber-ride and steel spring suspension systems. Most of its products find use in heavy duty on and off highway trailers and

Class 6, 7 and 8 trucks. For trucks and buses/ recreational vehicles it offers drive and auxiliary axles, while for the latter it also

supplies steer axles.

Capex

To boost its fledgling export business, Jamna plans to invest Rs 75-100

crs over the next twelve months. Large part of that would go in the

Hosur plant - state-of-the-art facility - for feeding the export market and

manufacturing new generation springs. Part would also be used for line

balancing and refurbishing several plant locations to make it export

worthy. All this is done to prop up the revenue share of exports over the

next few years.

Newer markets

Jamna strives to punch above its weight to bolster its after market presence countrywide. It believes that increasing awareness

of drivers for safety and durability of vehicles would prompt them to opt for branded products. Its subsidiary, Jai Suspension

Systems LLP, which peddles its goods in the replacement market, is ramping up its network of distributors. It plans to garner

at least a fifth of its total revenues from aftermarket this fiscal.

Page 5: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

5

5

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Value added products

To lessen its reliance on spring business, Jamna rolled out value added products such as lift axles and air suspensions in last

few years. Shifts in industry trends favour it too, as demand for higher tonnage vehicles is on the rise - propelling off take of

lift axles. Increasing use of low-floor buses in intra-city transportation would spur sales of air suspension systems. Rise in

content per vehicle (ratio of value of auto parts supplied to the total manufacturing cost of the vehicle) would do its bit to

boost sales. Technological backing of Ridewell Corporation would unleash the potential of this low capital intensive business,

a plus for Jamna who has been rationalizing costs by improving cost efficiencies and retiring high cost debt. Yet risks thrive,

for sales of lift axles suffered not least due to weak demand for multi-axle vehicles owing to industry wide recession and low

freight availability.

Financials & valuation

Amid all talks of protracted economic slowdown, Jamna Auto bucked the trend to post 31.3% growth in revenues, firmly

supported by volumes. OEM dispatches of springs advanced by 33.1%, while the dispatches in replacement market grew by a

puny 8.1%. Buoyancy in M&HCV market last fiscal explains much of the cheeriness in spring demand.

If current trends of commercial vehicle industry are anything to go by, then production of springs would remain animated

over the next few quarters. Domestic sales of commercial vehicles in India grew by 5.6% in Apr-July 15 as compared to the

same period last fiscal. M&HCVs logged an inspiring 24.86% growth while the LCVs declined by 5.24%. Jamna's spring

revenues as a result would grow by at least 20% in the current fiscal.

All is not good though. OPM's, resilient as yet, could turn wobbly not least because of sharp swings in commodity prices - steel

flats alone account for over 60% of sales. To recall, margins dipped to 5.8% (see chart), at least a six year low, in FY14 as sales

dipped nearly 15% , making recovery of fixed costs all the more pernicious; raw material cost as % of sales also climbed by

180bps then.

Nonetheless, it seems that more palatable outcomes are in the offing over the next few quarters. By monetizing its strategic

investment in NHK Spring and maintaining tight control on working capital, Jamna has managed to prune large part of its

debt - its current stock of debt is nearly a third of its peak debt of Rs 183 crs in FY12(current d/e ratio: 0.3). Both debtor and

inventory days fell to multi-year lows last fiscal - debtor: 27; inventory: 38. We envisage more rationalization in debtor days

over the next few years.

Capacity utilization rate of springs would plump too: PLF is projected to rise tellingly by next fiscal from 70-75% now. It

would manifest itself in higher asset turnover ratios - fixed asset turnover would rise to 5.9 next year from 4.4 now. But

business risks still looms. India's CV industry is still shaky. Jamna's reliance on handful of clients for bulk of its business could

undermine our forecast of a sharp rebound.

Page 6: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

6

6

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

The stock currently trades at 14.7x FY16e EPS of Rs 12.60 and 11.6x FY17e EPS of Rs 16.02. Although earnings on average is

projected to grow by a startling 44% over the next two years (though on a small base), the estimates are fraught with sizeable

risks. Net profit last fiscal, for instance, was barely two-thirds of peak profit of Rs 45 crs posted in FY12. Despite its product

diversification drive, springs still accounts for over 95% of its gross sales (see chart on previous page); even after product

diversification it would yet stay over 90%. Yet odds favour aggressive investors - mainly due to robust growth potential and

ostensibly reasonable valuation. We, therefore, assign ‘buy’ rating on the stock with a target of Rs 240 based on 15x FY17e

earnings, over a period of 9-12 months.

[[

Risks & Concerns

CV industry trepidation

As a large portion of its business comes from commercial vehicle segment, Jamna is heavily dependent on the infrastructure and

mining sectors. Its springs sales plummeted by a quarter in two years ending fiscal 2014 when domestic sales of commercial

vehicles nosedived nearly 22%; M&HCV dispatches plunged by 43% in the same period. Despite the recent recovery, last fiscal's

CV dispatches of 6.15 lakh units were far off from the seven year peak of 8.09 lakh units, a sign of sluggishness in economic

activity.

Client concentration

Although Jamna supplies wares to more than a handful of original equipment manufacturers, 80-85% of its sales are booked for

a small group - Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Daimler and Eicher Motors. So risk of losing large chunk of business looms.

Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP Mcap*

Op.

inc.* Profit* OPM NPM

Int

cov. ROE

Mcap

/ OI P/BV P/E EV/EBITDA

AutoAxles 15.1 680 1027 876 22 8.0 2.5 5.3 6.7 1.2 3.3 46.5 14.6

Jamna Auto 39.7 185 736 1150 38 9.1 3.3 4.5 16.3 0.6 3.5 19.4 7.3

WABCO 9.5 6952 13181 1409 135 15.8 9.6 545.1 14.6 9.4 14.5 97.5 52.6

*figures in Rs crs; ratios on ttm basis; ROE for FY15

Page 7: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

7

7

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Financials

Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crs

Q1FY16 Q1FY15 % chg. FY15 FY14 % chg.

Income from operations 290.07 235.01 23.4 1095.01 833.76 31.3

Other Income 1.93 0.38 408.1 2.01 22.27* -91.0

Total Income 292.01 235.39 24.1 1097.01 856.03 28.2

Total Expenditure 261.82 216.47 21.0 1000.51 789.35 26.8

PBIDT (other income included) 30.19 18.93 59.5 96.50 66.68 44.7

Interest 3.14 4.40 -28.7 18.02 24.07 -25.1

Depreciation 8.31 6.98 19.0 31.10 25.91 20.0

PBT 18.74 7.54 148.5 47.38 16.70 183.7

Tax 5.92 2.08 185.1 18.00 2.86 529.3

PAT after MI 12.82 5.47 134.6 29.38 13.84 112.3

Extraordinary Item 0.00 0.00 0.0 -1.28 16.78 -

Adjusted Net Profit 12.82 5.47 134.6 30.66 -2.94 -

EPS (F.V. 10) 3.23 1.38 133.4 7.71 - -

Income Statement Figures in Rs crs

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Income from operations 980.15 833.76 1095.01 1338.23 1547.27

Growth (%) -12.5 -14.9 31.3 22.2 15.6

Other Income 2.34 22.27 2.01 2.05 2.61

Total Income 982.49 856.03 1097.01 1340.28 1549.88

Total Expenditure 894.65 789.35 1000.51 1211.10 1396.41

EBITDA (other income included) 87.84 66.68 96.50 129.18 153.47

Interest 26.74 24.07 18.02 18.55 17.20

EBDT 61.10 42.61 78.48 110.63 136.27

Depreciation 28.95 25.91 31.10 34.83 39.85

Tax 4.43 2.86 18.00 25.77 32.78

Net profit 27.72 13.84 29.38 50.03 63.64

Extraordinary item -0.08 16.78 -1.34 0.00 0.00

Adjusted Net Profit 27.80 -2.94 30.72 50.03 63.64

EPS (Rs.) 6.91 - 7.72 12.60 16.02

*includes extraordinary income of Rs 20.25 crs; EPS post preference dividend

Page 8: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

8

8

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

[

Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 43.00 41.25 39.62 39.72 39.72

Reserves 131.50 140.35 156.80 191.53 236.05

Total Shareholders Funds 174.50 181.60 196.43 231.25 275.77

Long term debt 41.88 65.67 25.35 28.48 3.48

Minority interest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Liabilities 216.38 247.27 221.78 259.74 279.25

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 463.25 467.06 478.60 528.60 578.60

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 197.86 207.71 236.65 271.48 311.33

Net Block 265.39 259.35 241.95 257.12 267.27

Capital Work in Progress 17.15 2.23 7.77 - -

Investments 5.25 - - - -

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 131.65 100.74 109.12 125.49 140.55

Sundry Debtors 106.86 108.36 56.37 62.01 71.31

Cash and Bank 14.81 13.71 10.73 4.85 12.67

Other Assets 20.23 22.15 30.18 38.29 40.38

Total CA & LA 273.55 244.96 206.41 230.63 264.91

Current liabilities 350.92 266.46 241.57 232.43 251.04

Provisions 14.85 6.50 11.53 15.93 19.75

Total Current Liabilities 365.77 272.96 253.10 248.36 270.79

Net Current Assets -92.22 -28.00 -46.70 -17.73 -5.88

Net Deferred Tax (net of liability) -15.84 -14.80 -15.84 -17.26 -18.68

Other Assets (Net of liabilities) 36.65 28.50 34.60 37.60 36.54

Total Assets 216.38 247.27 221.78 259.73 279.25

Page 9: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

9

9

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Cash Flow Statement Figures in Rs crs

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Net Income (a) 27.72 13.84 29.38 50.03 63.64

Non cash exp. & others (b) 36.35 7.38 33.94 35.96 40.51

Depreciation 28.95 26.30 31.10 34.83 39.85

Interest income -0.74 -0.60 -0.32 -0.29 -0.76

Profit on sale of inv 0.00 -20.25 0.00 0.00 0.00

Deferred tax 4.33 -1.04 1.04 1.42 1.42

Others 3.81 2.97 2.12 0.00 0.00

(Increase) / decrease in NWC (c) -4.05 9.69 24.16 -9.59 -1.78

Inventory 4.69 30.91 -8.38 -16.37 -15.06

Debtors 20.14 -3.22 51.47 -5.64 -9.30

Other assets 3.62 4.52 -15.23 -12.00 -2.09

Other liabilities -32.50 -22.52 -3.71 24.42 24.67

Operating cash flow (a+b+c) 60.02 30.91 87.48 76.41 102.36

Capex -34.18 -6.70 -23.15 -42.23 -50.00

Investments 0.00 25.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

Interest income 0.93 0.70 0.22 0.29 0.76

Others 0.88 4.35 0.74 0.00 -7.94

Investing cash flow (d) -32.38 23.86 -22.19 -41.94 -57.18

Net borrowings -16.54 -40.91 -61.98 -29.82 -30.00

Dividends & cdt -12.06 -9.59 -4.66 -10.62 -15.30

Redemption of preference shares 0.00 -1.75 -1.75 0.00 0.00

Proceeds from share issuance 0.45 0.02 0.66 0.10 0.00

Financing cash flow (e) -28.16 -52.23 -67.73 -40.34 -45.30

Net change (a+b+c+d+e) -0.52 2.54 -2.45 -5.88 -0.11

Page 10: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

10

10

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

*either loss to profit or profit to loss

Key Financial Ratios

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Growth Ratios

Revenue (%) -12.5 -14.9 31.3 22.2 15.6

EBIDTA (%) -17.2 -42.3 90.2 33.8 18.8

Net Profit (%) -38.9 * * 62.9 27.2

EPS (%) -38.8 * * 63.1 27.2

Margins

Operating Profit Margin (%) 8.7 5.8 8.6 9.5 9.8

Gross Profit Margin (%) 6.2 3.2 7.2 8.3 8.8

Net Profit Margin (%) 2.8 -0.4 2.8 3.7 4.1

Return

ROCE (%) 15.0 6.1 15.0 23.7 27.6

RONW (%) 16.9 -1.9 16.3 23.4 25.1

Valuations

Market Cap / OI 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.5

EV/EBIDTA 5.3 7.8 10.5 6.1 5.2

P/E 11.4 - 31.4 14.7 11.6

P/BV 1.8 1.6 4.9 3.2 2.7

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 2.2 1.0 3.6 5.1 6.6

Debt-Equity Ratio 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0

Current Ratio 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 4.5 3.2 4.4 5.4 5.9

Total Asset Turnover 4.4 3.6 4.7 5.6 5.7

Debtors Turnover 8.3 7.7 13.3 22.6 23.2

Inventory Turnover 6.7 6.8 9.5 10.3 10.5

Creditors Turnover 3.9 3.8 5.3 6.3 6.6

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 43.9 47.1 27.5 16.1 15.7

Inventory Days 54.7 54.0 38.3 35.4 34.8

Creditor Days 93.1 95.1 68.5 58.3 55.6

Cash Conversion Cycle 5.4 6.0 -2.8 -6.8 -5.1

Cash Flows (Rs crs)

Operating Cash Flow 60.0 30.9 87.5 76.4 102.4

FCFF 49.0 46.8 78.0 46.7 56.5

FCFE 11.1 -13.4 1.6 4.6 15.2

Page 11: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

11

11

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Recommendation

Revival in domestic CV industry, particularly the M&HCV segment, has resurrected fortunes of auto component makers.

Jamna Auto is no exception, for its sales volumes of springs (both leaf and parabolic springs) rose by 28% last fiscal.

Current trends in M&HCV industry - volumes grew nearly 25% in Apr-July period - presage good times ahead. Further,

rapid march of foreign OEMs in the Indian automobile market would fasten the adoption of new technologies. Jamna's

technological alliance with Ridewell, USA for value added products like lift axles and air suspensions is a case in point

Jamna has sharpened its focus on growing the share of aftermarket business in overall turnover. Plans are afoot to boost

share of non-OEM business to nearly a third of total revenues from 20-22% today. Its subsidiary, Jai Suspension Systems

LLP, which peddles its goods in the replacement market, is ramping up its network of distributors. For more efficient

distribution of wares to its customers/ dealers, it has closed down some of its depots in the past.

To minimize its dependence on springs, Jamna tied up with Ridewell, USA for designing and manufacturing air

suspensions and lift axles; would pay royalty at 3% of sales. Shifts in industry trends favour launch of such products.

Demand for higher tonnage vehicles is rising- precipitating off take of lift axles. Increased use of low-floor buses in intra-

city transportation would spur sales of air suspension systems. Rise in content per vehicle would galvanize sales too.

Though domestic business remains paramount, growing exports has now become a priority. Its investment in Hosur

would feed domestic MNCs (Bharat Benz, Daimler, and Volvo) as well as overseas units of these players. Part of its

earmarked capex of Rs 75-100 crs would be used for line balancing and refurbishing several plant locations to make it

export worthy.

Undermining Jamna’s business risks would be unwary. Its sole reliance on the CV industry, which disproportionately

depends on infrastructure activity and politically sensitive fuel prices, demands utter caution. Its springs sales plummeted

by a quarter in two years ending fiscal 2014 when domestic sales of commercial vehicles declined nearly 22%; M&HCV

dispatches plunged by a worrying 43% in the same period. Further, 80-85% of its sales are booked for a small group of

customers - Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Daimler and Eicher Motors.

The stock currently trades at 14.7x FY16e EPS of Rs 12.60 and 11.6x FY17e EPS of Rs 16.02. As mentioned, earnings

estimates (44% average growth over the next two years) are rife with risks. Despite massive jump in earnings last fiscal, it

still trails peak profit of fiscal ending 2012 by nearly a third. Yet odds favour aggressive investors - mainly due to robust

growth potential, colossal market share in springs (leaf springs 64% at last count) and ostensibly reasonable valuation. We,

therefore, assign buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 240 based on 15x FY17e earnings (peg ratio: 0.3), over a period

of 9-12 months.

Page 12: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/CDEQUI/JAMAUTIN_20150918.pdf2015/09/18  · CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Sep 18, 2015 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual

12

12

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

Disclosure& Disclaimer CD Equisearch Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as ‘CD Equi’) is a Member registered with National Stock Exchange of India Limited,

Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (Formerly known as MCX Stock Exchange Limited). CD

Equi is also registered as Depository Participant with CDSL and AMFI registered Mutual Fund Advisor. The associates of CD Equi are

engaged in activities relating to NBFC-ND - Financing and Investment, Commodity Broking, Real Estate, etc.

CD Equi has applied for registration under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Further, CD Equi hereby declares that –

• No disciplinary action has been taken against CD Equi by any of the regulatory authorities.

• CD Equi/its associates/research analysts do not have any financial interest/beneficial interest of more than one percent/material

conflict of interest in the subject company(s).

• CD Equi/its associates/research analysts have not received any compensation from the subject company(s) during the past twelve

months.

• CD Equi/its research analysts has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by analysts and has not been

engaged in market making activity of the company covered by analysts.

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision.

Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such

investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to

in this document (including the merits and risks involved) and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such

an investment.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading

volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources

believed to be true but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for

general guidance only. CD Equi or any of its affiliates/group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may

arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. CD Equi has not independently verified all the

information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to

the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.

While, CD Equi endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory compliance or

other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,

redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Neither, CD Equi nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or

damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information.

CD Equisearch Private Limited (CIN: U67120WB1995PTC071521)

Registered Office: 37, Shakespeare Sarani, 1st Floor, Kolkata – 700 017; Phone: +91(33) 4488 0000; Fax: +91(33) 2289 2557; Corporate Office: 10,

Vasawani Mansion, 2nd Floor, Dinshaw Wachha Road, Churchgate, Mumbai – 400 020; Phone: +91(22) 2283 0652/0653; Fax: +91(22) 2283, 2276

Website: www.cdequi.com; Email: [email protected]